Multiple Explanation: A Consider-an-Alternative Strategy for Debiasing Judgments

Previous research has suggested that an effective strategy for debiasing judgments is to have participants "consider the opposite." The present research proposes that considering any plausible alternative outcome for an event, not just the opposite outcome, leads participants to simulate multiple alternatives, resulting in debiased judgments. Three experiments tested this hypothesis using an explanation task paradigm. Participants in all studies were asked to explain either 1 hypothetical outcome (single explanation conditions) or 2 hypothetical outcomes (multiple explanation conditions) to an event; after the explanation task, participants made likelihood judgments. The results of Studies 1 and 2 indicated that debiasing occurred in all multiple explanation conditions, including those that did not involve the opposite outcome. Furthermore, the findings indicated that debiased judgments resulted from participants' spontaneous consideration of additional alternatives in making their likelihood judgments. The results of Study 3 also identified the perceived plausibility of the explained alternative as an important moderating variable in debiasing

Social Prediction and the "Allegiance Bias"

Two studies examined the allegiance bias – the rendering of biased predictions by individuals who are psychologically invested in a desired outcome. In Study 1, fans of either Notre Dame or University of Miami college football read information about an upcoming game between the two teams and then explained a hypothetical victory either by Notre Dame or Miami. Although explaining a hypothetical victory biased the judgments of controls (i.e., fans of neither team) in the direction of the team explained, the judgments of Notre Dame and Miami fans favored their team in every explanation condition. In addition, fans exhibited biased recall for facts favoring their own teams and this biased recall predicted fans’ judgments regarding the upcoming game. Study 2 attempted to specify a debiasing technique that might attenuate the allegiance bias. Indiana University basketball fans described what they thought might happen in an upcoming game between Indiana and the University of Michigan while anticipating having a discussion about the game (i.e., predecisional accountability) with either an Indiana fan, a Michigan fan, or a fan of unknown allegiance. As predicted, anticipating a discussion with a fan of unknown allegiance engendered game predictions that were the least biased in favor of an Indiana victory. Implications for social explanation and prediction research are discussed

Match madness: Probability matching in prediction of the NCAA basketball tournament

Every year, billions of dollars are spent gambling on the outcomes of the NCAA men's basketball tournament. This study examines how individuals make predictions for tournament pools, one of the most popular forms of betting, in which individuals must correctly predict as many games in the tournament as possible. We demonstrate that individuals predict more upsets (i.e., wins by a higher seeded team) than would be considered rational by a normative choice model, and that individuals are no better than chance at doing so. These predictions fit a pattern of probability matching, in which individuals predict upsets at a rate equal to past frequency. This pattern emerges because individuals believe the outcomes of the games are nonrandom and, therefore, predictable.j asp_551 2809..2839 The focus of the current work is "March Madness," as the NCAA men's college basketball championship tournament has come to be known. In the tournament, 64 of the best teams in the country are selected to play in a six-round, single-elimination tournament to decide the national champion. This tournament has become one of the most popular sporting events of the year, and the focus of a great deal of prognostication. More than $2.5 billion are spent each year in legal and illegal gambling on this basketball tournament alone There are a number of interesting features of this tournament. First, teams are sorted into four groups (regions) of 16 teams and ranked (seeded) by the tournament organizers. In the first round, the best, lowest seeded team (1) in a group plays the worst, highest seeded team (16) in the group; the second-lowest seeded team (2) plays the second-highest seeded team (15); and 1 The authors thank Aaron Coleman, who designed the Internet interface for Study 1; and Judith Stöckel who collected data for Studies 2 and 3

Activating a Mental Simulation Mind-Set through Generation of Alternatives: Implications for Debiasing in Related and Unrelated Domains

Encouraging people to consider multiple alternatives appears to be a useful debiasing technique for reducing many biases (explanation, hindsight, and overconfidence), if the generation of alternatives is experienced as easy. The present research tests whether these alternative generation procedures induce a mental simulation mind-set (cf. Galinsky & Moskowitz, 2000), such that debiasing in one domain transfers to debias judgments in unrelated domains. The results indeed demonstrated that easy alternative generation tasks not only debiased judgments in the same domain but also generalized to debias judgments in unrelated domains, provided that participants were low in the need for structure. The alternative generation tasks (even when they were easy to perform) showed no evidence of activating a mental simulation mind-set in individuals high in need for structure, as these individuals displayed no transfer effects. Implications of the results for understanding the role of the need for structure, ease of generation, and mental simulation mind-set activation for debiasing are discussed

Running Head: GENDER DIFFERENCES IN SELF-HANDICAPPING

Abstract Research in the area of self-handicapping has consistently demonstrated a robust yet puzzling gender difference in the use of and evaluation of behavioral self-handicaps; women (1) are less likely to use these forms of handicaps, particularly those involving the actual or reported reduction of effort, and (2) evaluate the use of these handicaps by others more negatively than do men. The present research examines several possible explanations for these consistent gender differences and finds that the personal value placed on effort is an important mediator of these effects

Descriptive Norms Caused Increases in Mask Wearing During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Human sociality is governed by two types of social norms: injunctive norms, which prescribe what people ought to do, and descriptive norms, which reflect what people actually do. The process by which these norms emerge and their causal influences on cooperative behavior over time are not well understood. Here, we study these questions through social norms influencing mask wearing during the COVID-19 pandemic. Leveraging 2 years of data from the United States (18 time points; n = 915), we tracked mask wearing and perceived injunctive and descriptive mask wearing norms as the pandemic unfolded. Longitudinal trends suggested that norms and behavior were tightly coupled, changing quickly in response to public health recommendations. In addition, longitudinal modeling revealed that descriptive norms caused future increases in mask wearing across multiple waves of data collection. These cross-lagged causal effects of descriptive norms were large, even after controlling for non-social beliefs and demographic variables. Injunctive norms, by contrast, had less frequent and generally weaker causal effects on future mask wearing. During uncertain times, cooperative behavior is more strongly driven by what others are actually doing, rather than what others think ought to be done

‘It brings the lads together’: A critical exploration of older men’s experiences of a weight management programme delivered through a Healthy Stadia project

Older men whose weight is considered unhealthy may experience particular barriers that can restrict their adoption of health improvement interventions. Despite promising findings recommending the use of sports settings to facilitate health promotion with men, little evidence has addressed older men’s health needs for, or experiences of, these settings. Using a qualitative methodology, this study explored the experiences of 14 ageing men attending a football-led weight management programme delivered at a community sports setting. The thematic analysis of semi-structured interviews elucidates important insights regarding the provision of sports-led health improvement interventions for this population. Men especially valued the opportunity to play sports and do physical activity in an environment that promotes ‘inclusive’ competition and caring interpersonal relationships. Implicit in the findings is the key role of practitioners in promoting social engagement. We conclude the paper with key practical implications of this research

Schools and skills of critical thinking for urban design

© 2017, © 2017 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. This paper explores possible ways in which urban design can engage with critical thinking and critical theory. After a brief explanation of the terms, with particular attention to the Frankfurt School of thought, it provides various answers to the question as to whether urban design is critical or not. One categorization applied to planning critical theory is then used to explain the potential for employing critical theories in urban design. Critical thinking skills are then argued to be helpful for enriching the literature of urban design in order to achieve better practice. The conclusion is that urban design can benefit from critical creativity, which is an embodiment of critical thinking within the limits imposed onto creativity. In this paper, the ways in which urban design can engage with both critical theory and with critical thinking are explored in order to achieve better critical creativity in the field

Validation of a CFD-based numerical wave tank model for the power production assessment of the wavestar ocean wave energy converter

CFD-based numerical wave tank (CNWT) models, are a useful tool for the analysis of wave energy converters (WECs). During the development of a CNWT, model validation is vital, to prove the accuracy of the numerical solution. This paper presents an extensive validation study of a CNWT model for the 1:5 scale Wavestar point-absorber device. The previous studies reported by Ransley et al. [1] and Windt et al. [2] are extended in this paper, by including cases in which the power-take off (PTO) system is included in the model. In this study, the PTO is represented as a linear spring-damper system, providing a good approximation to the full PTO dynamics. The spring stiffness and damping coefficients in the numerical PTO model are determined through a linear least squares fit of the experimental PTO position, velocity and force data. The numerical results for free surface elevation, PTO data (position, velocity, force), generated power and pressure on the WEC hull are shown to compare well with the experimental measurement

A Multisite Preregistered Paradigmatic Test of the Ego-Depletion Effect

We conducted a preregistered multilaboratory project (k = 36; N = 3,531) to assess the size and robustness of ego-depletion effects using a novel replication method, termed the paradigmatic replication approach. Each laboratory implemented one of two procedures that was intended to manipulate self-control and tested performance on a subsequent measure of self-control. Confirmatory tests found a nonsignificant result (d = 0.06). Confirmatory Bayesian meta-analyses using an informed-prior hypothesis (δ = 0.30, SD = 0.15) found that the data were 4 times more likely under the null than the alternative hypothesis. Hence, preregistered analyses did not find evidence for a depletion effect. Exploratory analyses on the full sample (i.e., ignoring exclusion criteria) found a statistically significant effect (d = 0.08); Bayesian analyses showed that the data were about equally likely under the null and informed-prior hypotheses. Exploratory moderator tests suggested that the depletion effect was larger for participants who reported more fatigue but was not moderated by trait self-control, willpower beliefs, or action orientation.</p