Flat H Frangible Joint Evolution

Space vehicle staging and separation events require pyrotechnic devices. They are single-use mechanisms that cannot be tested, nor can failure-tolerant performance be demonstrated in actual flight articles prior to flight use. This necessitates the implementation of a robust design and test approach coupled with a fully redundant, failure-tolerant explosive mechanism to ensure that the system functions even in the event of a single failure. Historically, NASA has followed the single failure-tolerant (SFT) design philosophy for all human-rated spacecraft, including the Space Shuttle Program. Following the end of this program, aerospace companies proposed building the next generation human-rated vehicles with off-the-shelf, non-redundant, zero-failure-tolerant (ZFT) separation systems. Currently, spacecraft and launch vehicle providers for both the Orion and Commercial Crew Programs (CCPs) plan to deviate from the heritage safety approach and NASA's SFT human rating requirements. Both programs' partners have base-lined ZFT frangible joints for vehicle staging and fairing separation. These joints are commercially available from pyrotechnic vendors. Non-human-rated missions have flown them numerous times. The joints are relatively easy to integrate structurally within the spacecraft. In addition, the separation event is debris free, and the resultant pyro shock is lower than that of other design solutions. It is, however, a serious deficiency to lack failure tolerance. When used for critical applications on human-rated vehicles, a single failure could potentially lead to loss of crew (LOC) or loss of mission (LOM)). The Engineering and Safety & Mission Assurance directorates within the NASA Johnson Space Center took action to address this safety issue by initiating a project to develop a fully redundant, SFT frangible joint design, known as the Flat H. Critical to the ability to retrofit on launch vehicles being developed, the SFT mechanisms must fit within the same three-dimensional envelope as current designs as well as meet structural loads requirements. There is increased mass associated with the redundant design, and the goal is to minimize the weight impact as much as possible. These requirements presented significant challenges, both technically and financially; these challenges will be explored in this paper. Perhaps greater than the technical issues confronted during this design process, were the financial considerations. These were a significant part of the story of this design and development plan. Insufficient financial and labor resources were formidable barriers to completing this project. Nevertheless, JSC personnel successfully conducted several test series at JSC with very useful results. The many lessons learned drove design improvements, performance efficiency, and increased functional reliability. This paper examines the significant technical and financial challenges that these requirements posed to the project team. It discusses the evolution of the SFT frangible joint design, including optimization, testing, and successful partnering of the Johnson Space Center (JSC) engineering and JSC safety organizations, to enhance the flight safety margin for America's next generation of human-rated space vehicles

Flat-H Redundant Frangible Joint Design Evolution 2018: Feasibility Study Conclusions

This paper reports results of an investigation into developing a single failure tolerant pyrotechnic linear separation system which features completely redundant explosive trains suitable for human spaceflight. It is a follow up to Flat-H Redundant Frangible Joint Design Evolution 2017 and Flat-H Redundant Frangible Joint Evolution. The paper chronicles the history of the redundant frangible joint development program including testing, analysis, and design improvements from 2014 to the present culminating in a successful proof-of-concept prototype. The paper describes work done to address debris control and containment of combustion products. A performance optimization strategy is presented along with optimization results. Additionally a novel containment manifold design is presented with test results

Systematic sensitivity analysis of the full economic impacts of sea level rise

The potential impacts of sea level rise (SLR) due to climate change have been widely studied in the literature. However, the uncertainty and robustness of these estimates has seldom been explored. Here we assess the model input uncertainty regarding the wide effects of SLR on marine navigation from a global economic perspective. We systematically assess the robustness of computable general equilibrium (CGE) estimates to model’s inputs uncertainty. Monte Carlo (MC) and Gaussian quadrature (GQ) methods are used for conducting a Systematic sensitivity analysis (SSA). This design allows to both explore the sensitivity of the CGE model and to compare the MC and GQ methods. Results show that, regardless whether triangular or piecewise linear Probability distributions are used, the welfare losses are higher in the MC SSA than in the original deterministic simulation. This indicates that the CGE economic literature has potentially underestimated the total economic effects of SLR, thus stressing the necessity of SSA when simulating the general equilibrium effects of SLR. The uncertainty decomposition shows that land losses have a smaller effect compared to capital and seaport productivity losses. Capital losses seem to affect the developed regions GDP more than the productivity losses do. Moreover, we show the uncertainty decomposition of the MC results and discuss the convergence of the MC results for a decomposed version of the CGE model. This paper aims to provide standardised guidelines for stochastic simulation in the context of CGE modelling that could be useful for researchers in similar settings

Integrating new sea‐level scenarios into coastal risk and adaptation assessments: An ongoing process

The release of new and updated sea‐level rise (SLR) information, such as from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports, needs to be better anticipated in coastal risk and adaptation assessments. This requires risk and adaptation assessments to be regularly reviewed and updated as needed, reflecting the new information but retaining useful information from earlier assessments. In this paper, updated guidance on the types of SLR information available is presented, including for sea‐level extremes. An intercomparison of the evolution of the headline projected ranges across all the IPCC reports show an increase from the fourth and fifth assessments to the most recent “Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate” assessment. IPCC reports have begun to highlight the importance of potential high‐end sea‐level response, mainly reflecting uncertainties in the Greenland/Antarctic ice sheet components, and how this might be considered in scenarios. The methods that are developed here are practical and consider coastal risk assessment, adaptation planning, and long‐term decision‐making to be an ongoing process and ensure that despite the large uncertainties, pragmatic adaptation decisions can be made. It is concluded that new sea‐level information should not be seen as an automatic reason for abandoning existing assessments, but as an opportunity to review (i) the assessment's robustness in the light of new science and (ii) the utility of proactive adaptation and planning strategies, especially over the more uncertain longer term

An L Band Spectrum of the Coldest Brown Dwarf

The coldest brown dwarf, WISE 0855, is the closest known planetary-mass, free-floating object and has a temperature nearly as cold as the solar system gas giants. Like Jupiter, it is predicted to have an atmosphere rich in methane, water, and ammonia, with clouds of volatile ices. WISE 0855 is faint at near-infrared wavelengths and emits almost all its energy in the mid-infrared. Skemer et al. 2016 presented a spectrum of WISE 0855 from 4.5-5.1 micron (M band), revealing water vapor features. Here, we present a spectrum of WISE 0855 in L band, from 3.4-4.14 micron. We present a set of atmosphere models that include a range of compositions (metallicities and C/O ratios) and water ice clouds. Methane absorption is clearly present in the spectrum. The mid-infrared color can be better matched with a methane abundance that is depleted relative to solar abundance. We find that there is evidence for water ice clouds in the M band spectrum, and we find a lack of phosphine spectral features in both the L and M band spectra. We suggest that a deep continuum opacity source may be obscuring the near-infrared flux, possibly a deep phosphorous-bearing cloud, ammonium dihyrogen phosphate. Observations of WISE 0855 provide critical constraints for cold planetary atmospheres, bridging the temperature range between the long-studied solar system planets and accessible exoplanets. JWST will soon revolutionize our understanding of cold brown dwarfs with high-precision spectroscopy across the infrared, allowing us to study their compositions and cloud properties, and to infer their atmospheric dynamics and formation processes.Comment: 19 pages, 21 figures. Accepted for publication in Ap

Orbital Refinement and Stellar Properties for the HD 9446, HD 43691, and HD 179079 Planetary Systems

The Transit Ephemeris Refinement and Monitoring Survey is a project that aims to detect transits of intermediate-long period planets by refining orbital parameters of the known radial velocity planets using additional data from ground-based telescopes, calculating a revised transit ephemeris for the planet, then monitoring the planet host star during the predicted transit window. Here we present the results from three systems that had high probabilities of transiting planets: HD 9446 b and c, HD 43691 b, and HD 179079 b. We provide new radial velocity (RV) measurements that are then used to improve the orbital solution for the known planets. We search the RV data for indications of additional planets in orbit and find that HD 9446 shows a strong linear trend of 4.8σ. Using the newly refined planet orbital solutions, which include a new best-fit solution for the orbital period of HD 9446 c, and an improved transit ephemerides, we found no evidence of transiting planets in the photometry for each system. Transits of HD 9446 b can be ruled out completely and transits HD 9446 c and HD 43691 b can be ruled out for impact parameters up to b = 0.5778 and b = 0.898, respectively, due to gaps in the photometry. A transit of HD 179079 b cannot be ruled out, however, due to the relatively small size of this planet compared to the large star and thus low signal to noise. We determine properties of the three host stars through spectroscopic analysis and find through photometric analysis that HD 9446 exhibits periodic variability