The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project

The PREDICTS project—Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)—has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity

Bridging the research-implementation gap in IUCN Red List assessments

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species is central in biodiversity conservation, but insufficient resources hamper its long-term growth, updating, and consistency. Models or automated calculations can alleviate those challenges by providing standardised estimates required for assessments, or prioritising species for (re-)assessments. However, while numerous scientific papers have proposed such methods, few have been integrated into assessment practice, highlighting a critical research-implementation gap. We believe this gap can be bridged by fostering communication and collaboration between academic researchers and Red List practitioners, and by developing and maintaining user-friendly platforms to automate application of the methods. We propose that developing methods better encompassing Red List criteria, systems, and drivers is the next priority to support the Red List.Peer reviewe

Data from: The present and future effects of land use on ecological assemblages in tropical grasslands and savannas in Africa

The world is currently experiencing a period of rapid, human-driven biodiversity loss. Over the past decade, numerous metrics for biodiversity have been used to create indicators to track change in biodiversity. However, our ability to predict future changes has been limited. In this study, we use two very different models to predict the status and possible futures for the composition and diversity of ecological assemblages in African tropical grasslands and savannas under land-use change. We show that ecological assemblages are affected more by land use in African grasslands and savannas than in other biomes. We estimate that average losses of assemblage composition and diversity are already between 9.7 and 42.0%, depending on the model and measure used. If current socio-economic trajectories continue (‘business-as-usual’), the likely associated land-use changes are predicted to lead to a further 5.6–12.3% loss of assemblage composition and diversity. In contrast, a scenario that assumes more efficient use of agricultural areas (thus requiring a smaller total area) could be associated with a partial reversal ‒ of as much as 3.2% ‒ of past losses. While the agriculture that causes the majority of land-use change is an important source of economic growth, projections of the effects of land use on ecological assemblages can allow for more informed decisions

Challenges with inferring how land-use affects terrestrial biodiversity: Study design, time, space and synthesis

Land use has already reshaped local biodiversity on Earth, with effects expected to increase as human populations continue to grow in both numbers and prosperity. An accurate depiction of the state of biodiversity on our planet, combined with identifying the mechanisms driving local biodiversity change, underpins our ability to predict how different societal priorities and actions will influence biodiversity trajectories. Quantitative syntheses provide a fundamental tool by taking information from multiple sources to identify generalisable patterns. However, syntheses, by definition, combine data sources that have fundamentally different purposes, contexts, designs and sources of error and bias; they may thus provide contradictory results, not because of the biological phenomena of interest, but due instead to combining diverse data. While much attention has been focussed on the use of space-for-time substitution methods to estimate the impact of land-use change on terrestrial biodiversity, we show that the most common study designs all face challenges-either conceptual or logistical-that may lead to faulty inferences and ultimately mislead quantitative syntheses. We outline these study designs along with their advantages and difficulties, and how quantitative syntheses can combine the strengths of each class of design.</p

Bridging the research-implementation gap in IUCN Red List assessments

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species is central in biodiversity conservation, but insufficient resources hamper its long-term growth, updating, and consistency. Models or automated calculations can alleviate those challenges by providing standardised estimates required for assessments, or prioritising species for (re-)assessments. However, while numerous scientific papers have proposed such methods, few have been integrated into assessment practice, highlighting a critical research-implementation gap. We believe this gap can be bridged by fostering communication and collaboration between academic researchers and Red List practitioners, and by developing and maintaining user-friendly platforms to automate application of the methods. We propose that developing methods better encompassing Red List criteria, systems, and drivers is the next priority to support the Red List.Peer reviewe

A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios

To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land-use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e., nature's contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected biodiversity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)-SSP1xRCP2.6, SSP3xRCP6.0, SSP5xRCP8.6-to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenario selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the biodiversity and ecosystem services models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modeling project will support the ongoing global assessment of IPBES, strengthen ties between IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and modeling processes, advise the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on its development of a post-2020 strategic plans and conservation goals, and inform the development of a new generation of nature-centred scenarios

The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project

© 2016 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. The PREDICTS project—Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)—has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity