ii Control of chaotic population dynamics

Ecological and economic consideration

Modelling Vector Transmission and Epidemiology of Co-Infecting Plant Viruses.

Co-infection of plant hosts by two or more viruses is common in agricultural crops and natural plant communities. A variety of models have been used to investigate the dynamics of co-infection which track only the disease status of infected and co-infected plants, and which do not explicitly track the density of inoculative vectors. Much less attention has been paid to the role of vector transmission in co-infection, that is, acquisition and inoculation and their synergistic and antagonistic interactions. In this investigation, a general epidemiological model is formulated for one vector species and one plant species with potential co-infection in the host plant by two viruses. The basic reproduction number provides conditions for successful invasion of a single virus. We derive a new invasion threshold which provides conditions for successful invasion of a second virus. These two thresholds highlight some key epidemiological parameters important in vector transmission. To illustrate the flexibility of our model, we examine numerically two special cases of viral invasion. In the first case, one virus species depends on an autonomous virus for its successful transmission and in the second case, both viruses are unable to invade alone but can co-infect the host plant when prevalence is high

The ACS Virgo Cluster Survey. XIV. Analysis of Color-Magnitude Relations in Globular Cluster Systems

We examine the correlation between globular cluster (GC) color and magnitude using HST/ACS imaging for a sample of 79 early-type galaxies (-21.7<M_B<-15.2 mag) with accurate SBF distances from the ACS Virgo Cluster Survey. Using the KMM mixture modeling algorithm, we find a highly significant correlation, d(g-z)/dz = -0.037 +- 0.004, between color and magnitude for the subpopulation of blue GCs in the co-added GC color-magnitude diagram of the three brightest Virgo galaxies (M49, M87 and M60): brighter GCs are redder than their fainter counterparts. For the single GC systems of M87 and M60, we find similar correlations; M49 does not appear to show a significant trend. There is no correlation between (g-z) and M_z for GCs of the red subpopulation. The correlation d(g-z)/dg for the blue subpopulation is much weaker than d(g-z)/dz. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we attribute this to the fact that the blue subpopulation in M_g extends to higher luminosities than the red subpopulation, which biases the KMM fits. The correlation between color and M_z thus is a real effect. This conclusion is supported by biweight fits to the same color distributions. We identify two environmental dependencies of the color-magnitude relation: (1) the slope decreases in significance with decreasing galaxy luminosity; and (2) the slope is stronger for GCs at smaller galactocentric distances. We examine several mechanisms that might give rise to the observed color-magnitude relation: (1) presence of contaminators; (2) accretion of GCs from low-mass galaxies; (3) stochastic effects; (4) capture of field stars by individual GCs; and (5) GC self-enrichment. We conclude that self-enrichment and field-star capture, or a combination of these processes, offer the most promising means of explaining our observations.Comment: 15 pages, 12 figures, accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal. Uses emulateapj.cl

The Unique History of the Globular Cluster Omega Centauri

Using current observational data and simple dynamical modeling, we demonstrate that Omega Cen is not special among the Galactic globular clusters in its ability to produce and retain the heavy elements dispersed in the AGB phase of stellar evolution. The multiple stellar populations observed in Omega Cen cannot be explained if it had formed as an isolated star cluster. The formation within a progenitor galaxy of the Milky Way is more likely, although the unique properties of Omega Cen still remain a mystery.Comment: published version with minor change

Coinfections by noninteracting pathogens are not independent and require new tests of interaction.

If pathogen species, strains, or clones do not interact, intuition suggests the proportion of coinfected hosts should be the product of the individual prevalences. Independence consequently underpins the wide range of methods for detecting pathogen interactions from cross-sectional survey data. However, the very simplest of epidemiological models challenge the underlying assumption of statistical independence. Even if pathogens do not interact, death of coinfected hosts causes net prevalences of individual pathogens to decrease simultaneously. The induced positive correlation between prevalences means the proportion of coinfected hosts is expected to be higher than multiplication would suggest. By modelling the dynamics of multiple noninteracting pathogens causing chronic infections, we develop a pair of novel tests of interaction that properly account for nonindependence between pathogens causing lifelong infection. Our tests allow us to reinterpret data from previous studies including pathogens of humans, plants, and animals. Our work demonstrates how methods to identify interactions between pathogens can be updated using simple epidemic models

A large population of ultra-compact dwarfs and bright intracluster globulars in the Fornax cluster

All the previously cataloged ultracompact dwarf (UCD) galaxies in the Fornax and Virgo clusters have 17.5 < b(J) < 20. Using the 2dF spectrograph on the Anglo-Australian Telescope, we have carried out a search for fainter UCDs in the Fornax Cluster. In the magnitude interval 19.5 < b(J) < 21.5, we have found 54 additional compact cluster members within a projected radius of 0 degrees.9 (320 kpc) of the cluster center, all of which meet our selection and observational criteria to be UCDs. These newly identified objects, however, overlap in luminosity and spatial distribution with objects classified as globular clusters (GCs) belonging to the central cluster galaxy NGC 1399; in fact, about half of the objects in our sample are included in recent catalogs of NGC 1399/Fornax GCs. The numbers, luminosity function, and spatial distributions of our compact object sample are consistent with being the bright tail of the Fornax cluster-wide GC population. Yet, our present larger sample of intergalactic compact objects forms a dynamically distinct population from both the NGC1399 GCs and the nucleated dwarf ellipticals in Fornax. This supports the interpretation that the UCDs, which populate the bright tail of the GC luminosity function, are, in some respects, a separate class of objects, at least to the extent that they have experienced a distinct dynamical history and origin, which differs from the bulk of the NGC1399 GCs. Correcting for our spectroscopic incompleteness, we estimate that there are similar to 105 +/- 13 of these brighter compact cluster objects down to b(J) < 21.5 in the central region of the Fornax, and hence these UCDs/globulars outnumber other galaxy types in this space. The differences in their dynamics and distribution compared to dwarf ellipticals (dEs) may be consistent with a threshing or tidal destruction origin, if they have come from a subpopulation of dE galaxies on initial orbits that rendered them susceptible to such processes

The SAMI-Fornax Dwarfs Survey I: sample, observations, and the specific stellar angular momentum of dwarf elliptical galaxies

Dwarf ellipticals are the most common galaxy type in cluster environments, however the challenges associated with their observation mean their formation mechanisms are still poorly understood. To address this, we present deep integral field observations of a sample of 31 low-mass ($10^{7.5} <$ M$_\star < 10^{9.5}$ M$_\odot$) early-type galaxies in the Fornax cluster with the SAMI instrument. For 21 galaxies our observations are sufficiently deep to construct spatially resolved maps of the stellar velocity and velocity dispersion - for the remaining galaxies we extract global velocities and dispersions from aperture spectra only. From the kinematic maps we measure the specific stellar angular momentum $\lambda_R$ of the lowest mass dE galaxies to date. Combining our observations with early-type galaxy data from the literature spanning a large range in stellar mass, we find that $\lambda_R$ decreases towards lower stellar mass, with a corresponding increase in the proportion of slowly rotating galaxies in this regime. The decrease of $\lambda_R$ with mass in our sample dE galaxies is consistent with a similar trend seen in somewhat more massive spiral galaxies from the CALIFA survey. This suggests that the degree of dynamical heating required to produce dEs from low-mass starforming progenitors may be relatively modest, and consistent with a broad range of formation mechanisms.Comment: 13 pages, 10 figures and an additional 10 pages of appendices. Accepted for publication in MNRA

Constraining nuclear star cluster formation using MUSE-AO observations of the early-type galaxy FCC 47

Context. Nuclear star clusters (NSCs) are found in at least 70% of all galaxies, but their formation path is still unclear. In the most common scenarios, NSCs form in-situ from the galaxy's central gas reservoir, through the merging of globular clusters (GCs), or through a combination of both. Aims: As the scenarios pose different expectations for angular momentum and stellar population properties of the NSC in comparison to the host galaxy and the GC system, it is necessary to characterise the stellar light, NSC, and GCs simultaneously. The large NSC (r_eff = 66 pc) and rich GC system of the early-type Fornax cluster galaxy FCC 47 (NGC 1336) render this galaxy an ideal laboratory to constrain NSC formation. Methods: Using Multi Unit Spectroscopic Explorer science verification data assisted by adaptive optics, we obtained maps for the stellar kinematics and stellar-population properties of FCC 47. We extracted the spectra of the central NSC and determined line-of-sight velocities of 24 GCs and metallicities of five. Results: The galaxy shows the following kinematically decoupled components (KDCs): a disk and a NSC. Our orbit-based dynamical Schwarzschild model revealed that the NSC is a distinct kinematic feature and it constitutes the peak of metallicity and old ages in FCC 47. The main body consists of two counter-rotating populations and is dominated by a more metal-poor population. The GC system is bimodal with a dominant metal-poor population and the total GC system mass is \u30317% of the NSC mass (\u3037 7 10^8 M_sun). Conclusions: The rotation, high metallicity, and high mass of the NSC cannot be explained by GC-inspiral alone. It most likely requires additional, quickly quenched, in-situ formation. The presence of two KDCs likely are evidence of a major merger that has significantly altered the structure of FCC 47, indicating the important role of galaxy mergers in forming the complex kinematics in the galaxy-NSC system

The SAMI–Fornax Dwarfs Survey – III. Evolution of [α/Fe] in dwarfs, from Galaxy Clusters to the Local Group

Using very deep, high spectral resolution data from the SAMI Integral Field Spectrograph, we study the stellar population properties of a sample of dwarf galaxies in the Fornax Cluster, down to a stellar mass of 107 M☉, which has never been done outside the Local Group. We use full spectral fitting to obtain stellar population parameters. Adding massive galaxies from the ATLAS3D project, which we re-analysed, and the satellite galaxies of the Milky Way, we obtained a galaxy sample that covers the stellar mass range 104–1012 M☉. Using this large range, we find that the mass–metallicity relation is not linear. We also find that the [α/Fe]-stellar mass relation of the full sample shows a U-shape, with a minimum in [α/Fe] for masses between 109 and 1010 M☉. The relation between [α/Fe] and stellar mass can be understood in the following way: when the faintest galaxies enter the cluster environment, a rapid burst of star formation is induced, after which the gas content is blown away by various quenching mechanisms. This fast star formation causes high [α/Fe] values, like in the Galactic halo. More massive galaxies will manage to keep their gas longer and form several bursts of star formation, with lower [α/Fe] as a result. For massive galaxies, stellar populations are regulated by internal processes, leading to [α/Fe] increasing with mass. We confirm this model by showing that [α/Fe] correlates with clustercentric distance in three nearby clusters and also in the halo of the Milky Way.</p

Ablation of atrial fibrillation with the Epicor system: a prospective observational trial to evaluate safety and efficacy and predictors of success

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>High intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) energy has evolved as a new surgical tool to treat atrial fibrillation (AF). We evaluated safety and efficacy of AF ablation with HIFU and analyzed predictors of success in a prospective clinical study.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>From January 2007 to June 2008, 110 patients with AF and concomitant open heart surgery were enrolled into the study. Main underlying heart diseases were aortic valve disease (50%), ischemic heart disease (48%), and mitral valve disease (18%). AF was paroxysmal in 29%, persistent in 31%, and long standing persistent in 40% of patients, lasting for 1 to 240 months (mean 24 months). Mean left atrial diameter was 50 ± 7 mm. Each patient underwent left atrial ablation with the Epicor system prior to open heart surgery. After surgery, the patients were treated with amiodarone and coumadin for 6 months. Follow-up studies including resting ECG, 24 h Holter ECG, and echocardiography were obtained at 6 and 12 months.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>All patients had successful application of the system on the beating heart prior to initiation of extracorporeal circulation. On average, 11 ± 1 ultrasound transducer elements were used to create the box lesion. The hand-held probe for additional linear lesions was employed in 83 cases. No device-related deaths occurred. Postoperative pacemaker insertion was necessary in 4 patients. At 6 months, 62% of patients presented with sinus rhythm. No significant changes were noted at 12 months. Type of AF and a left atrial diameter > 50 mm were predictors for failure of AF ablation.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>AF ablation with the Epicor system as a concomitant procedure during open heart surgery is safe and acceptably effective. Our overall conversion rate was lower than in previously published reports, which may be related to the lower proportion of isolated mitral valve disease in our study population. Left atrial size may be useful to determine patients who are most likely to benefit from the procedure.</p