The oil price and monetary policy – a new paradigm

The oil price hit a low of around USD 10 at the end of 1999. Since then it has moved upwards in a series of steps. In recent years it has been one of the most closely monitored components of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is a leading inflation indicator. When it topped the USD 50 mark in October 2004 and in March 2005 and, even more clearly, when it passed USD 60 in mid-2005, it brought back painful memories of the severe economic consequences of the 1970s oil crisis. However, in real terms – after adjusting for inflation – the oil price is still lower now than it was then. Another striking factor is that between the mid 1980s and the turn of the millennium the oil price fluctuated around an average of about USD 20. Since then, the average price level and volatility have greatly increased. Although a few years do not provide sufficient evidence to validate a trend, they do raise questions about the background to the oil price hike and its implications for monetary policy. This paper looks at the fundamental factors which suggest that oil prices are likely to remain both high and volatile. It also discusses the implications for monetary policy. Since maintaining price stability is the principal objective of monetary policy, this paper focuses primarily on the impact of oil prices on inflation; the effects on growth are considered insofar as they affect inflation. Section 2 outlines some of the reasons why oil prices are expected to remain high and volatile. Section 3 looks at forecasting oil prices while Section 4 outlines the possible implications of higher oil prices for economic growth and inflation. Finally, Section 5 examines the monetary policy implications of sustained high oil prices. The final section presents our conclusions.oil price; monetary policy

The Swiss National Bank's monetary policy concept - an example of a 'principles-based' policy framework

The practice of monetary policy has evolved a great deal since the early 1990s. This evolution was significantly influenced by rapid developments in the theory of monetary policy. A new consensus about 'principles-based' monetary policy appears to be emerging. It marries a firm long-term anchor for nominal stability, rooted in the original ideas behind inflation targeting, with short-term flexibility, based on a more discretionary and pragmatic approach to monetary policy. The SNB's monetary policy framework - with a firm nominal anchor but with an emphasis on the need for flexibility - reflects, to a considerable degree, the emerging academic consensus about best-practice monetary policy. With its successful seven-year track record, it may serve as an interesting case study for a policy aiming at an intermediate position between full discretion and rigidly defined short-term inflation targeting.Swiss National Bank, monetary policy, inflation targeting, rules, discretion

The oil price and monetary policy – a new paradigm

The oil price hit a low of around USD 10 at the end of 1999. Since then it has moved upwards in a series of steps. In recent years it has been one of the most closely monitored components of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is a leading inflation indicator. When it topped the USD 50 mark in October 2004 and in March 2005 and, even more clearly, when it passed USD 60 in mid-2005, it brought back painful memories of the severe economic consequences of the 1970s oil crisis. However, in real terms – after adjusting for inflation – the oil price is still lower now than it was then. Another striking factor is that between the mid 1980s and the turn of the millennium the oil price fluctuated around an average of about USD 20. Since then, the average price level and volatility have greatly increased. Although a few years do not provide sufficient evidence to validate a trend, they do raise questions about the background to the oil price hike and its implications for monetary policy. This paper looks at the fundamental factors which suggest that oil prices are likely to remain both high and volatile. It also discusses the implications for monetary policy. Since maintaining price stability is the principal objective of monetary policy, this paper focuses primarily on the impact of oil prices on inflation; the effects on growth are considered insofar as they affect inflation. Section 2 outlines some of the reasons why oil prices are expected to remain high and volatile. Section 3 looks at forecasting oil prices while Section 4 outlines the possible implications of higher oil prices for economic growth and inflation. Finally, Section 5 examines the monetary policy implications of sustained high oil prices. The final section presents our conclusions

Impact of electron-hole correlations on the 1T-TiSe21T\text{-}{\mathrm{TiSe}}_{2} electronic structure

Several experiments have been performed on 1T−TiSe2 in order to identify whether the electronic structure is semimetallic or semiconducting without reaching a consensus. In this Letter, we theoretically study the impact of electron-hole and electron-phonon correlations on the bare semimetallic and semiconducting electronic structure. The resulting electron spectral functions provide a direct comparison of both cases and demonstrate that 1T−TiSe2 is of predominant semiconducting character with some spectral weight crossing the Fermi level

Non-Invasive Diagnostics in Acute Compartment Syndrome

Diagnosis of acute compartment syndrome (ACS) of the extremities is based on clinical signs with or without complementary measurement of muscle compartmental pressure. However, in cases of imminent compartment syndrome, unconscious patients or children the appropriate diagnose remains challenging. Despite all efforts to improve technical devices to objectify the signs by measurements of numerous parameters, needle compartment pressure measurement is to date accepted as the gold standard to facilitate decision making. But its invasiveness, the controversy about pressure thresholds and its potentially limited validity due to a single measurement support the need for further developments to diagnose ACS. Numerous technical improvements have been published and revealed promising new applications for non-invasive diagnostics. Since the pathology of an ACS is well characterized two approaches of measurements are described: to detect either increasing compartmental pressure or decreasing perfusion pressure. In the following, currently known investigations are reviewed and related to their pathophysiological principals, modes of clinical application, value and reliability

Production of Topology-optimised Structural Nodes Using Arc-based, Additive Manufacturing with GMAW Welding Process

The desire to generate a stress optimised structural node with maximum stability is often coupled with the goal of low manufacturing costs and an adapted and minimal use of material. The complex, three-dimensional free-form structures, which are created by means of topology-optimisation, are only partially suitable for conventional manufacturing. The wire arc additive manufacturing (WAAM), by means of arc welding processes, offer a cost-effective and flexible possibility for the individual production of complex, metallic components. Gas metal arc welding (GMAW) is particularly suitable to produce large-volume, load-bearing structures due to build-up rates of up to 5 kg/h. The generation of strength and stiffness adapted support structures by means of the numerical simulation method of topology-optimisation was investigated in this study to generate topology-optimised structural nodes. The resulting node is transferred into a robot path using CAD/CAM software and manufactured from the filler material G4Si1 using WAAM with the GMAW process. Based on the boundary conditions of the WAAM process, the path planning and thus the manufacturability of the topology-optimised supporting structure nodes is evaluated and verified using a sample structure made of the welding filler material G4Si1. Depending on the path planning, an improvement of the mechanical properties could be achieved, due to changes in t8/5 times

Excited states at interfaces of a metal-supported ultrathin oxide film

We report layer-resolved measurements of the unoccupied electronic structure of ultrathin MgO films grown on Ag(001). The metal-induced gap states at the metal/oxide interface, the oxide band gap, and a surface core exciton involving an image-potential state of the vacuum are revealed through resonant Auger spectroscopy of the MgKL23L23 Auger transition. Our results demonstrate how to obtain new insights on empty states at interfaces of metal-supported ultrathin oxide films

Traumatic extremity arterial injury in children: Epidemiology, diagnostics, treatment and prognostic value of Mangled Extremity Severity Score

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Traumatic paediatric arterial injuries are a great challenge due to low incidence and specific characteristics of paediatric anatomy and physiology. The aim of the present study was to investigate their epidemiology, diagnostic and therapeutic options and complications. Furthermore, the prognostic value of the Mangled Extremity Severity Score (MESS) was evaluated.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In a retrospective clinical study 44 children aged 9.0 ± 3.2 years treated for traumatic extremity arterial lesions in our Level I trauma center between 1971 and 2006 were enrolled. Exclusion criteria were age > 14, venous and iatrogenic vascular injury. Demographic data, mechanism of injury, severity of arterial lesions (by Vollmar and MESS), diagnostic and therapeutic management, complications and outcome were evaluated.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The most commonly injured vessel was the femoral artery (25%) followed by the brachial artery (22.7%). The mechanism of injury was penetrating (31.8%), isolated severe blunt extremity trauma (29.6%), multiple trauma (25%) and humeral supracondylar fractures (13.6%). In 63.6% no specific vascular diagnostic procedure was performed in favour of emergency surgery. Surgical reconstructive strategies were preferred (68.2%). A MESS < 7 was associated with initial (p < 0.05) and definite limb salvage (p < 0.001) of the lower extremity.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Traumatic paediatric vascular injuries are very rare. The most common situations of vascular lesions in childhood were penetrating injuries and fractures of the extremities either as isolated injuries or in multiply injured patients. In paediatric patients, the MESS could serve as a basis for decision making for limb salvage or amputation.</p

Band bending in Mg-colored and O₂-activated ultrathin MgO(001) films

Ultrathin MgO films grown on Ag(001) have been investigated using X-ray and ultraviolet photoemission spectroscopies for oxide films successively exposed to Mg and O₂ flux. Studying work functions and layer-resolved Auger shifts allows us to keep track of band profiles from the oxide surface to the interface and reveal the charge- transfer mechanisms underlying the controlled creation of Mg-induced surface color centers and the catalytic enhancement of O₂ activation. Our results demonstrate that one can intimately probe the catalytic properties of metal-supported ultrathin oxide films by studying the electronic band alignment at interfaces