Negative emissions-Part 3 : Innovation and upscaling

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Eff ectiveness of reactive oral cholera vaccination in rural Haiti: a case-control study and bias-indicator analysis

Background Between April and June, 2012, a reactive cholera vaccination campaign was done in Haiti with an oral inactivated bivalent whole-cell vaccine. We aimed to assess the eff ectiveness of the vaccine in a case-control study and to assess the likelihood of bias in that study in a bias-indicator study. Methods Residents of Bocozel or Grand Saline who were eligible for the vaccination campaign (ie, age ≥12 months, not pregnant, and living in the region at the time of the vaccine campaign) were included. In the primary case-control study, cases had acute watery diarrhoea, sought treatment at one of three participating cholera treatment units, and had a stool sample positive for cholera by culture. For each case, four control individuals who did not seek treatment for acute watery diarrhoea were matched by location of residence, enrolment time (within 2 weeks of the case), and age (1–4 years, 5–15 years, and >15 years). Cases in the bias-indicator study were individuals with acute watery diarrhoea with a negative stool sample for cholera. Controls were selected in the same manner as in the primary case-control study. Trained staff used standard laboratory procedures to do rapid tests and stool cultures from study cases. Participants were interviewed to collect data on sociodemographic characteristics, risk factors for cholera, and self-reported vaccination. Data were analysed by conditional logistic regression, adjusting for matching factors. Findings From Oct 24, 2012, to March 9, 2014, 114 eligible individuals presented with acute watery diarrhoea and were enrolled, 25 of whom were subsequently excluded. 47 participants were analysed as cases in the vaccine eff ectiveness case-control study and 42 as cases in the bias-indicator study. 33 (70%) of 47 cholera cases self-reported vaccination versus 167 (89%) of 188 controls (vaccine eff ectiveness 63%, 95% CI 8–85). 27 (57%) of 47 cases had certifi ed vaccination versus 147 (78%) of 188 controls (vaccine eff ectiveness 58%, 13–80). Neither self-reported nor verifi ed vaccination was signifi cantly associated with non-cholera diarrhoea (vaccine eff ectiveness 18%, 95% CI –208 to 78 by self-report and –21%, –238 to 57 by verifi ed vaccination). Interpretation Bivalent whole-cell oral cholera vaccine eff ectively protected against cholera in Haiti from 4 months to 24 months after vaccination. Vaccination is an important component of eff orts to control cholera epidemics

Use of Oral Cholera Vaccine in Haiti: A Rural Demonstration Project

A cholera epidemic has claimed the lives of more than 8,000 Haitians and sickened 650,000 since the outbreak began in October 2010. Early intervention in the epidemic focused on case-finding, treatment, and water and sanitation interventions for prevention of transmission. Use of oral cholera vaccine (OCV) as part of a complementary set of control activities was considered but initially rejected by policymakers. In December 2011, the Minister of Health of Haiti called for a demonstration of the acceptability and feasibility of the use of OCV in urban and rural Haiti. This paper describes the collaborative activity that offered OCV to one region of the Artibonite Department of rural Haiti in addition to other ongoing treatment and control measures. Despite logistics and cold chain challenges, 45,417 persons were successfully vaccinated with OCV in the region, and 90.8% of these persons completed their second dose

Immunogenicity of a Killed Bivalent (O1 and O139) Whole Cell Oral Cholera Vaccine, Shanchol, in Haiti

Background: Studies of the immunogenicity of the killed bivalent whole cell oral cholera vaccine, Shanchol, have been performed in historically cholera-endemic areas of Asia. There is a need to assess the immunogenicity of the vaccine in Haiti and other populations without historical exposure to Vibrio cholerae. Methodology/Principal Findings We measured immune responses after administration of Shanchol, in 25 adults, 51 older children (6–17 years), and 47 younger children (1–5 years) in Haiti, where cholera was introduced in 2010. A≥4-fold increase in vibriocidal antibody titer against V. cholerae O1 Ogawa was observed in 91% of adults, 74% of older children, and 73% of younger children after two doses of Shanchol; similar responses were observed against the Inaba serotype. A≥2-fold increase in serum O-antigen specific polysaccharide IgA antibody levels against V. cholerae O1 Ogawa was observed in 59% of adults, 45% of older children, and 61% of younger children; similar responses were observed against the Inaba serotype. We compared immune responses in Haitian individuals with age- and blood group-matched individuals from Bangladesh, a historically cholera-endemic area. The geometric mean vibriocidal titers after the first dose of vaccine were lower in Haitian than in Bangladeshi vaccinees. However, the mean vibriocidal titers did not differ between the two groups after the second dose of the vaccine. Conclusions/Significance: A killed bivalent whole cell oral cholera vaccine, Shanchol, is highly immunogenic in Haitian adults and children. A two-dose regimen may be important in Haiti, and other populations lacking previous repeated exposures to V. cholerae

Negative emissions-Part 2 : Costs, potentials and side effects

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

REMIND2.1: transformation and innovation dynamics of the energy-economic system within climate and sustainability limits

This paper presents the new and now open-source version 2.1 of the REgional Model of INvestments and Development (REMIND). REMIND, as an integrated assessment model (IAM), provides an integrated view of the global energy–economy–emissions system and explores self-consistent transformation pathways. It describes a broad range of possible futures and their relation to technical and socio-economic developments as well as policy choices. REMIND is a multiregional model incorporating the economy and a detailed representation of the energy sector implemented in the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS). It uses non-linear optimization to derive welfare-optimal regional transformation pathways of the energy-economic system subject to climate and sustainability constraints for the time horizon from 2005 to 2100. The resulting solution corresponds to the decentralized market outcome under the assumptions of perfect foresight of agents and internalization of external effects. REMIND enables the analyses of technology options and policy approaches for climate change mitigation with particular strength in representing the scale-up of new technologies, including renewables and their integration in power markets. The REMIND code is organized into modules that gather code relevant for specific topics. Interaction between different modules is made explicit via clearly defined sets of input and output variables. Each module can be represented by different realizations, enabling flexible configuration and extension. The spatial resolution of REMIND is flexible and depends on the resolution of the input data. Thus, the framework can be used for a variety of applications in a customized form, balancing requirements for detail and overall runtime and complexity

Air quality and health implications of 1.5–2°C climate pathways under considerations of ageing population: A multi-model scenario analysis

Low-carbon pathways consistent with the 2°C and 1.5°C long-term climate goals defined in the Paris Agreement are likely to induce substantial co-benefits for air pollution and associated health impacts. In this analysis, using five global integrated assessment models, we quantify the emission reductions in key air pollutants resulting from the decarbonization of energy systems and the resulting changes in premature mortality attributed to the exposure to ambient concentrations of fine particulate matter. The emission reductions differ by sectors. Sulfur emissions are mainly reduced from power plants and industry, cuts in nitrogen oxides are dominated by the transport sector, and the largest abatement of primary fine particles is achieved in the residential sector. The analysis also shows that health benefits are the largest when policies addressing climate change mitigation and stringent air pollution controls are coordinated. We decompose the key factors that determine the extent of health co-benefits, focusing on Asia: changes in emissions, urbanization rates, population growth and ageing. Demographic processes, particularly due to ageing population, counteract in many regions the mortality reductions realized through lower emissions

Quantifying the impacts of shipping NOₓ emissions on tropospheric O₃, CH₄ and their radiative forcing

International shipping is a cornerstone of the global economy since it carries about 80% of the world trade by volume. It is also a growing sector that releases significant amounts of pollutants into the atmosphere. Shipping NOx emissions could represent about 15% of the total anthropogenic NOx emitted in 2000 and are particularly important since they perturb the concentrations of O3 and CH4, two greenhouse gases present in the atmosphere. Studies focusing on the impacts of shipping NOx emissions on tropospheric chemistry and radiative forcing remain however quite recent and still bear significant uncertainties. The aim of this study is to provide an extended view of the problem by making use of a state-of-art global chemistry-transport model (MOZART-4) in conjunction with a radiative transfer model (Edwards-Slingo). Since MOZART-4 has never been used before to analyse shipping NOx impacts, a thorough comparison with the material reported in previous studies was carried out. The global model was further tested by performing a sensitivity analysis of shipping perturbations against various uncertainties in atmospheric processes and model changes. In addition, impacts from the implementation of a ship plume parameterisation based on the concept of effective reaction rates were assessed. The O3 and CH4 radiative forcings resulting from shipping NOx emissions were then estimated with the help of Edwards-Slingo in 2000 and in the future by using the RCP scenarios. This last step laid the ground for a linearization of the global shipping NOx-O3-CH4 system. The assessment of MOZART-4 revealed that the model is suitable for the analysis of shipping NOx impacts. Although it simulates larger O3 perturbations in the free troposphere as well as a larger CH4 lifetime perturbation, estimates remain within 1-σ standard deviation of the results reported in a previous multimodel study. Current uncertainties in shipping emissions and particularly their magnitude remain the largest contributor to the uncertainty in shipping O3 and CH4 perturbations ([-39%, 67%] and [-37%, 59%], respectively). The shipping emission parameterisation developed by Dr. Huszar was found to be unsuitable for usage in MOZART-4, partly because of the absence of NOx sink processes. This was corrected by implementing the approach designed by Dr. Moldanova which lead to NOx and O3 reductions larger than 20% at the surface of the oceans. A net radiative forcing from shipping NOx emissions of -60 mW/m2 was computed with Edwards-Slingo in 2000. Under the RCP scenarios, the net radiative forcing range between -96 mW/m2 and -15 mW/m2. A linear relationship was finally derived between shipping NOx emissions and the radiative forcing of shipping O3 and CH4. Estimates calculated with the linear model remain within 15% of the values computed with the global models. Further work should focus on trying to reduce the uncertainties linked to the magnitude and spatial distribution of shipping emissions. The shipping emission parameterisation based on the concept of effective reaction rates still bear problems which should be addressed in the future. Finally, it would be interesting to estimate the future radiative forcings from shipping NOx emissions under the SRES scenarios since these forecast values are larger shipping emissions. This would potentially increase the robustness of the linear model

Modeling of the bending behavior of all-thermoplastic sandwich panels manufactured by isothermal compression

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