Application of Genetic Algorithm for the Discovery of Hidden Temporal Patterns in Earthquakes Data

<p style="text-align: justify; line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 30.5pt 10pt 21.3pt; unicode-bidi: embed; direction: ltr;" class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi;">Time Series Data mining (TSDM) is one of the most widely used technique that deals with temporal patterns. Genetic algorithm (GA) is a predictive TSDM search technique that is used for solving search/optimization problems. GA is based on the principles and mechanisms of natural selections to find the most nearest optimal solution available from a list of solutions. GA relies on a set of important fundamentals, such as chromosome, crossover and mutation. GA is applied to earthquakes data in the year 2003-2004 in the Suez Gulf in Egypt, gathered from the Egyptian National Seismic Network. The study does not aim to building time series models from the point of time, since the analysis neither include the time nor the prediction of when an earth quake will occur, but to determine the possibility of occurrence of a strong magnitude earthquake after specific sequence of previous earthquakes as temporal pattern. The temporal pattern cluster used is a "circle". The objective function used is a function that gives the highest percentage of correct classification. Empirical results show that crossover and mutation probabilities are 0.4 and .01 respectively for both the training and the testing sample. The algorithm yields 96.98% correct classification for the training sample, and 95.35% for the testing sample.</span></p

Genome-wide analysis of ivermectin response by Onchocerca volvulus reveals that genetic drift and soft selective sweeps contribute to loss of drug sensitivity

Treatment of onchocerciasis using mass ivermectin administration has reduced morbidity and transmission throughout Africa and Central/South America. Mass drug administration is likely to exert selection pressure on parasites, and phenotypic and genetic changes in several Onchocerca volvulus populations from Cameroon and Ghana-exposed to more than a decade of regular ivermectin treatment-have raised concern that sub-optimal responses to ivermectin's anti-fecundity effect are becoming more frequent and may spread.Pooled next generation sequencing (Pool-seq) was used to characterise genetic diversity within and between 108 adult female worms differing in ivermectin treatment history and response. Genome-wide analyses revealed genetic variation that significantly differentiated good responder (GR) and sub-optimal responder (SOR) parasites. These variants were not randomly distributed but clustered in ~31 quantitative trait loci (QTLs), with little overlap in putative QTL position and gene content between the two countries. Published candidate ivermectin SOR genes were largely absent in these regions; QTLs differentiating GR and SOR worms were enriched for genes in molecular pathways associated with neurotransmission, development, and stress responses. Finally, single worm genotyping demonstrated that geographic isolation and genetic change over time (in the presence of drug exposure) had a significantly greater role in shaping genetic diversity than the evolution of SOR.This study is one of the first genome-wide association analyses in a parasitic nematode, and provides insight into the genomics of ivermectin response and population structure of O. volvulus. We argue that ivermectin response is a polygenically-determined quantitative trait (QT) whereby identical or related molecular pathways but not necessarily individual genes are likely to determine the extent of ivermectin response in different parasite populations. Furthermore, we propose that genetic drift rather than genetic selection of SOR is the underlying driver of population differentiation, which has significant implications for the emergence and potential spread of SOR within and between these parasite populations

The Galabat-Metema cross-border onchocerciasis focus: The first coordinated interruption of onchocerciasis transmission in Africa.

BACKGROUND: Onchocerciasis transmission across international borders is not uncommon, yet a coordinated cross border stops mass drug administration (MDA) decision has not been documented. METHODS/PRINCIPLE FINDINGS: The Galabat-Metema focus involves neighboring districts on the border between Sudan and Ethiopia. Mass drug administration (MDA) was provided once and subsequently twice per year in this focus, with twice-per-year beginning in Ethiopia's Metema subfocus in 2016 and in the Sudan's Galabat subfocus in 2008. Ov16 ELISA-based serosurveys were conducted in 6072 children under 10 years of age in the Metema subfocus in 2014, and 3931 in the Galabat in 2015. Between 2014 and 2016, a total of 27,583 vector Simulium damnosum flies from Metema and 9,148 flies from Galabat were tested by pool screen PCR for Onchocerca volvulus O-150 DNA. Only 8 children were Ov16 seropositive (all in the Metema subfocus); all were negative by skin snip PCR. The upper limit of the 95% confidence interval (UCL) for Ov16 seropositive was <0.1% for the overall focus and 0.14 positive fly heads per 2000 (UCL = 0.39/2000). However, an entomological 'hotspot' was detected on the Wudi Gemzu river in Metema district. The hotspot was confirmed when 4 more positive fly pools were found on repeat testing in 2017 (1.04 L3/2000 flies (UCL = 2.26/2000). Information exchange between the two countries led to stopping MDA in a coordinated fashion in 2018, with the exception of the hotspot at Wudi Gemzu, where MDA with ivermectin was increased to every three months to hasten interruption of transmission. CONCLUSION: Coordinated stop MDA decisions were made by Sudan and Ethiopia based on data satisfying the World Health Organization's criteria for interruption of onchocerciasis transmission. Definitions of entomological 'hotspots' and buffer zones around the focus are proposed

Shifting livelihood strategies in northern Nigeria - extensified production and livelihood diversification amongst Fulani pastoralists

Abstract This paper presents an in-depth investigation of the livelihood strategies of Fulani pastoralists in north central Nigeria. Results show a diversified crop-livestock system aimed at spreading risk and reducing cattle offtake, adapted to natural resource competition and insecurity by extensification, with further diversification into off-farm activities to spread risk, increase livelihood security and capture opportunities. However, significant costs were associated with extensification, and integration of crop and livestock enterprises was limited. Mean total income per capita in the study area was $554 or$1.52/person/day with 42% of households earning less than 1.25/person/day. Income levels were positively correlated with income diversity and price received per animal sold, rather than herd size. The outcomes of this livelihood strategy were favourable across the whole community, but when individual households are considered, there was evidence of moderate economic inequality in total income, cash income and herd size (Gini coefficient 0.32, 0.35 and 0.43 respectively). The poorest households were quite vulnerable, with low assets, income and income diversity. Implications for sustainability are discussed given the likelihood that the negative trends of reduced access to natural resources and insecurity will continue

Attempts to Image the Early Inflammatory Response during Infection with the Lymphatic Filarial Nematode Brugia pahangi in a Mouse Model

Helminth parasites remain a major constraint upon human health and well-being in many parts of the world. Treatment of these infections relies upon a very small number of therapeutics, most of which were originally developed for use in animal health. A lack of high throughput screening systems, together with limitations of available animal models, has restricted the development of novel chemotherapeutics. This is particularly so for filarial nematodes, which are long-lived parasites with a complex cycle of development. In this paper, we describe attempts to visualise the immune response elicited by filarial parasites in infected mice using a non-invasive bioluminescence imaging reagent, luminol, our aim being to determine whether such a model could be developed to discriminate between live and dead worms for in vivo compound screening. We show that while imaging can detect the immune response elicited by early stages of infection with L3, it was unable to detect the presence of adult worms or, indeed, later stages of infection with L3, despite the presence of worms within the lymphatic system of infected animals. In the future, more specific reagents that detect secreted products of adult worms may be required for developing screens based upon live imaging of infected animals