Bayesian Analysis of Doubly Inflated Poisson Regression for Correlated Count Data: Application to DMFT Data

Outcome variables in clinical studies sometimes include count data with inflation in two points (usually zero and k (k>0)). Doubly inflated models can be adopted for modeling these types of data. In statistical modeling, the association among subjects due to longitudinal or cluster study designs is considered by random effects models. In this article, we proposed a doubly inflated random effects model using the Bayesian approach for correlated count data with inflation in two values, and compared this model with Bayesian zero-inflated Poisson and Bayesian Poisson models. The parameters’ estimates by these models were obtained by Markov Chain Monte Carlo method using OpenBUGS software. Bayesian models were compared using the deviance information criterion. To this end, we utilized the total number of decayed, missed, and filled teeth of 12-year-old children and also conducted a simulation study.  Results of real data and the simulation study revealed that the proposed model is fitted better than previous models.&nbsp

BRCA2 variants and cardiovascular disease in a multi-ethnic study.

BACKGROUND: Germline mutations of BRCA1/2 are associated with hereditary breast and ovarian cancer. Recent data suggests excess mortality in mutation carriers beyond that conferred by neoplasia, and recent in vivo and in vitro studies suggest a modulatory role for BRCA proteins in endothelial and cardiomyocyte function. We therefore tested the association of BRCA2 variants with clinical cardiovascular disease (CVD). METHODS: Using data from 1,170 individuals included in two multi-ethnic population-based studies (SHARE and SHARE-AP), the association between BRCA2 variants and CVD was evaluated. 15 SNPs in BRCA2 with minor allele frequencies (MAF) > 0.01 had been previously genotyped using the cardiovascular gene-centric 50 k SNP array. 115 individuals (9.8%) reported a CVD event, defined as myocardial infarction (MI), angina, silent MI, stroke, and angioplasty or coronary artery bypass surgery. Analyses were adjusted for age and sex. The SNPs rs11571836 and rs1799943 were subsequently genotyped using the MassARRAY platform in 1,045 cases of incident MI and 1,135 controls from the South Asian subset of an international case-control study of acute MI (INTERHEART), and rs11571836 was imputed in 4,686 cases and 4500 controls from the Pakistan Risk of Myocardial Infarction Study (PROMIS). RESULTS: Two BRCA2 SNPs, rs11571836 and rs1799943, both located in untranslated regions, were associated with lower risk of CVD (OR 0.47 p = 0.01 and OR 0.56 p = 0.03 respectively) in the SHARE studies. Analysis by specific ethnicities demonstrated an association with CVD for both SNPs in Aboriginal People, and for rs11571836 only in South Asians. No association was observed in the European and Chinese subgroups. A non-significant trend towards an association between rs11571836 and lower risk of MI was observed in South Asians from INTERHEART [OR = 0.87 (95% CI: 0.75-1.01) p = 0.068], but was not evident in PROMIS [OR = 0.96 (95% CI: 0.90-1.03) p = 0.230]. Meta-analysis of both case-control studies resulted in a combined OR of 0.94 (95% CI: 0.89-1.004, p = 0.06). CONCLUSIONS: Although there was an association between two SNPs in BRCA2 and CVD in a multi-ethnic population, these results were not replicated in two South Asian case-control studies of incident MI. Future studies exploring the association between BRCA variants and cardiovascular disorders are needed to clarify the role, if any, for BRCA variants in CVD pathogenesis.RIGHTS : This article is licensed under the BioMed Central licence at http://www.biomedcentral.com/about/license which is similar to the 'Creative Commons Attribution Licence'. In brief you may : copy, distribute, and display the work; make derivative works; or make commercial use of the work - under the following conditions: the original author must be given credit; for any reuse or distribution, it must be made clear to others what the license terms of this work are

Association of Zinc, Copper and Magnesium with bone mineral density in Iranian postmenopausal women - a case control study

Background: The risk of inadequate nutrition such as trace elements and vitamin deficiencies is considerable in postmenopausal women. The aim of this study was to compare trace elements (Zinc, Copper and Magnesium) concentration in nail, urine and serum among osteoporotic postmenopausal women with control group in Iran.Methods: Forty eight postmenopausal women aged 36-60 years, were recruited, consisting 30 osteoporotic patients and 18 healthy controls. Blood, nail and urine concentration of Zinc (Zn), copper (Cu) and magnesium (Mg) were determined using Inductively Coupled Plasma -Atomic Emission Spectrometry (ICP-AES) method. Their Bone Mineral Density was measured by Dual X-ray Absorption (DEXA) method.Results: The urine level of trace elements had significant difference between osteoporotic groups and controls (p < 0.001). Moreover Mg level significantly differed in serum between two groups (p < 0.04). There was no statistically significant difference in trace minerals in nail beyond groups.Conclusion: Our findings indicate that Urine Zn level could be considerable an appropriate marker for bone absorption, usage of Zn supplements in postmenopausal women may result a beneficial reduction in osteoporotic risk. © 2014 Razmandeh et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd

Medical podcasting in Iran; pilot, implementation and attitude evaluation

Podcasting has become a popular means of transferring knowledge in higher education through making lecture contents available to students at their convenience. Accessing courses on media players provides students with enhanced learning opportunities. Development of teaching methods able to cope with ever-changing nature of medicine is crucial to train the millennium students. Pharmacology education in Tehran University of Medical Sciences has been based on lectures so far; our aim was to implement a pilot study to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of offering the course contents as podcasts as well as evaluating whether such program can be feasible in our educational program. 46% of students downloaded the podcast according to our download center. 48% favored usage of both internet and DVD-ROM concurrently. Overall 96% of students perceived that podcasting had a positive impact on their learning in pharmacology course. Our results indicate that most of attendants proposed the positive yields of podcasting despite low usage of it, mainly as a pre-class preparing tool.publisher versio

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Effect of concurrent mitral valve surgery for secondary mitral regurgitation upon mortality after aortic valve replacement or coronary artery bypass surgery

ObjectivesIt is uncertain whether concurrent mitral valve repair or replacement for moderate or greater secondary mitral regurgitation at the time of coronary artery bypass graft or aortic valve replacement surgery improves long-term survival.MethodsPatients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft and/or aortic valve replacement surgery with moderate or greater secondary mitral regurgitation were reviewed. The effect of concurrent mitral valve repair or replacement upon long-term mortality was assessed while accounting for patient and operative characteristics and mitral regurgitation severity.ResultsOf 1,515 patients, 938 underwent coronary artery bypass graft or aortic valve replacement surgery alone and 577 underwent concurrent mitral valve repair or replacement. Concurrent mitral valve repair or replacement did not alter the risk of postoperative mortality for patients with moderate mitral regurgitation (hazard ratio = 0.93; 0.75–1.17) or more-than-moderate mitral regurgitation (hazard ratio = 1.09; 0.74–1.60) in multivariable regression. Patients with more-than-moderate mitral regurgitation undergoing coronary artery bypass graft-only surgery had a survival advantage from concurrent mitral valve repair or replacement in the first two postoperative years (P = 0.028) that did not persist beyond that time. Patients who underwent concurrent mitral valve repair or replacement had a higher rate of later mitral valve operation or reoperation over the five subsequent years (1.9% vs. 0.2%; P = 0.0014) than those who did not.ConclusionsThese observations suggest that mitral valve repair or replacement for more-than-moderate mitral regurgitation at the time of coronary artery bypass grafting may be reasonable in a suitably selected coronary artery bypass graft population but not for aortic valve replacement, with or without coronary artery bypass grafting. Our findings are supportive of 2021 European guidelines that severe secondary mitral regurgitation “should” or be “reasonabl[y]” intervened upon at the time of coronary artery bypass grafting but do not support 2020 American guidelines for performing mitral valve repair or replacement concurrent with aortic valve replacement, with or without coronary artery bypass grafting

Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) in Iran and its neighboring countries, 1990–2015

BACKGROUND: Summary measures of health are essential in making estimates of health status that are comparable across time and place. They can be used for assessing the performance of health systems, informing effective policy making, and monitoring the progress of nations toward achievement of sustainable development goals. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) provides disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) as main summary measures of health. We assessed the trends of health status in Iran and 15 neighboring countries using these summary measures. METHODS: We used the results of GBD 2015 to present the levels and trends of DALYs, life expectancy (LE), and HALE in Iran and its 15 neighboring countries from 1990 to 2015. For each country, we assessed the ratio of observed levels of DALYs and HALE to those expected based on socio-demographic index (SDI), an indicator composed of measures of total fertility rate, income per capita, and average years of schooling. RESULTS: All-age numbers of DALYs reached over 19 million years in Iran in 2015. The all-age number of DALYs has remained stable during the past two decades in Iran, despite the decreasing trends in all-age and age-standardized rates. The all-cause DALY rates decreased from 47,200 in 1990 to 28,400 per 100,000 in 2015. The share of non-communicable diseases in DALYs increased in Iran (from 42% to 74%) and all of its neighbors between 1990 and 2015; the pattern of change is similar in almost all 16 countries. The DALY rates for NCDs and injuries in Iran were higher than global rates and the average rate in High Middle SDI countries, while those for communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders were much lower in Iran. Among men, cardiovascular diseases ranked first in all countries of the region except for Bahrain. Among women, they ranked first in 13 countries. Life expectancy and HALE show a consistent increase in all countries. Still, there are dissimilarities indicating a generally low LE and HALE in Afghanistan and Pakistan and high expectancy in Qatar, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. Iran ranked 11th in terms of LE at birth and 12th in terms of HALE at birth in 1990 which improved to 9th for both metrics in 2015. Turkey and Iran had the highest increase in LE and HALE from 1990 to 2015 while the lowest increase was observed in Armenia, Pakistan, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Iraq. CONCLUSIONS: The levels and trends in causes of DALYs, life expectancy, and HALE generally show similarities between the 16 countries, although differences exist. The differences observed between countries can be attributed to a myriad of determinants, including social, cultural, ethnic, religious, political, economic, and environmental factors as well as the performance of the health system. Investigating the differences between countries can inform more effective health policy and resource allocation. Concerted efforts at national and regional levels are required to tackle the emerging burden of non-communicable diseases and injuries in Iran and its neighbors

Anemia prevalence in women of reproductive age in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2018

Anemia is a globally widespread condition in women and is associated with reduced economic productivity and increased mortality worldwide. Here we map annual 2000–2018 geospatial estimates of anemia prevalence in women of reproductive age (15–49 years) across 82 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), stratify anemia by severity and aggregate results to policy-relevant administrative and national levels. Additionally, we provide subnational disparity analyses to provide a comprehensive overview of anemia prevalence inequalities within these countries and predict progress toward the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target (WHO GNT) to reduce anemia by half by 2030. Our results demonstrate widespread moderate improvements in overall anemia prevalence but identify only three LMICs with a high probability of achieving the WHO GNT by 2030 at a national scale, and no LMIC is expected to achieve the target in all their subnational administrative units. Our maps show where large within-country disparities occur, as well as areas likely to fall short of the WHO GNT, offering precision public health tools so that adequate resource allocation and subsequent interventions can be targeted to the most vulnerable populations