North Atlantic climate variability from a self-organizing map perspective

[1] North Atlantic variability in general, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in particular, is a long-studied, very important but still not well-understood problem in climatology. The recent trend to a higher wintertime NAO index was accompanied by an additional increase in the Azores High not coupled to changes in the Icelandic Low, as shown by a self-organizing maps (SOMs) analysis of monthly mean DJF mean sea level pressure data from 1957 to 2002. SOMs are a nonlinear tool to optimally extract a user-specified number of patterns or icons from an input data set and to uniquely relate any input data field to an icon, allowing analyses of occurrence frequencies and transitions complementary to principal component analysis (PCA). SOMs analysis of ERA-40 data finds a North Atlantic monopole roughly colocated with the mean position of the Azores High, as well as the well-known NAO dipole involving the Icelandic Low and the subtropical high. Little trend is shown in December, but the Azores High increased along with the NAO in January and February over the study interval, with implications for storminess in northwestern Europe. In short, our SOM-based analyses of winter MSLP have both confirmed prior knowledge and expanded it through the relative ease of use and power with nonlinear systems of the SOM-based approach to climatological analysis

Null-stream veto for two co-located detectors: Implementation issues

Time-series data from multiple gravitational wave (GW) detectors can be linearly combined to form a null-stream, in which all GW information will be cancelled out. This null-stream can be used to distinguish between actual GW triggers and spurious noise transients in a search for GW bursts using a network of detectors. The biggest source of error in the null-stream analysis comes from the fact that the detector data are not perfectly calibrated. In this paper, we present an implementation of the null-stream veto in the simplest network of two co-located detectors. The detectors are assumed to have calibration uncertainties and correlated noise components. We estimate the effect of calibration uncertainties in the null-stream veto analysis and propose a new formulation to overcome this. This new formulation is demonstrated by doing software injections in Gaussian noise.Comment: Minor changes; To appear in Class. Quantum Grav. (Proc. GWDAW10

Regional climate change predictions from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies high resolution GCM

A new diagnostic tool is developed for examining relationships between the synoptic scale circulation and regional temperature distributions in GCMs. The 4 x 5 deg GISS GCM is shown to produce accurate simulations of the variance in the synoptic scale sea level pressure distribution over the U.S. An analysis of the observational data set from the National Meteorological Center (NMC) also shows a strong relationship between the synoptic circulation and grid point temperatures. This relationship is demonstrated by deriving transfer functions between a time-series of circulation parameters and temperatures at individual grid points. The circulation parameters are derived using rotated principal components analysis, and the temperature transfer functions are based on multivariate polynomial regression models. The application of these transfer functions to the GCM circulation indicates that there is considerable spatial bias present in the GCM temperature distributions. The transfer functions are also used to indicate the possible changes in U.S. regional temperatures that could result from differences in synoptic scale circulation between a 1XCO2 and a 2xCO2 climate, using a doubled CO2 version of the same GISS GCM

Optimal time-domain combination of the two calibrated output quadratures of GEO 600

GEO 600 is an interferometric gravitational wave detector with a 600 m arm-length and which uses a dual-recycled optical configuration to give enhanced sensitivity over certain frequencies in the detection band. Due to the dual-recycling, GEO 600 has two main output signals, both of which potentially contain gravitational wave signals. These two outputs are calibrated to strain using a time-domain method. In order to simplify the analysis of the GEO 600 data set, it is desirable to combine these two calibrated outputs to form a single strain signal that has optimal signal-to-noise ratio across the detection band. This paper describes a time-domain method for doing this combination. The method presented is similar to one developed for optimally combining the outputs of two colocated gravitational wave detectors. In the scheme presented in this paper, some simplifications are made to allow its implementation using time-domain methods

Robust vetoes for gravitational-wave burst triggers using known instrumental couplings

The search for signatures of transient, unmodelled gravitational-wave (GW) bursts in the data of ground-based interferometric detectors typically uses `excess-power' search methods. One of the most challenging problems in the burst-data-analysis is to distinguish between actual GW bursts and spurious noise transients that trigger the detection algorithms. In this paper, we present a unique and robust strategy to `veto' the instrumental glitches. This method makes use of the phenomenological understanding of the coupling of different detector sub-systems to the main detector output. The main idea behind this method is that the noise at the detector output (channel H) can be projected into two orthogonal directions in the Fourier space -- along, and orthogonal to, the direction in which the noise in an instrumental channel X would couple into H. If a noise transient in the detector output originates from channel X, it leaves the statistics of the noise-component of H orthogonal to X unchanged, which can be verified by a statistical hypothesis testing. This strategy is demonstrated by doing software injections in simulated Gaussian noise. We also formulate a less-rigorous, but computationally inexpensive alternative to the above method. Here, the parameters of the triggers in channel X are compared to the parameters of the triggers in channel H to see whether a trigger in channel H can be `explained' by a trigger in channel X and the measured transfer function.Comment: 14 Pages, 8 Figures, To appear in Class. Quantum Gra

Toward an ethical framework for climate services: A White Paper of the Climate Services Partnership Working Group on Climate Services Ethics

This paper is intended to spur thinking and dialogue among the wide and relatively diverse community of actors engaged in practical activities surrounding the production, translation, transfer and use of climate information for societal decision making. This white paper is intended to start a conversation on ethics in the climate services community. To that end, the CSP Working Group on Climate Services Ethics is accepting comments on this white paper online at www.climate-services.org/ethics

Calibrating spectral estimation for the LISA Technology Package with multichannel synthetic noise generation

The scientific objectives of the Lisa Technology Package (LTP) experiment, on board of the LISA Pathfinder mission, demand for an accurate calibration and validation of the data analysis tools in advance of the mission launch. The levels of confidence required on the mission outcomes can be reached only with an intense activity on synthetically generated data. A flexible procedure allowing the generation of cross-correlated stationary noise time series was set-up. Multi-channel time series with the desired cross correlation behavior can be generated once a model for a multichannel cross-spectral matrix is provided. The core of the procedure is the synthesis of a noise coloring multichannel filter through a frequency-by-frequency eigendecomposition of the model cross-spectral matrix and a Z-domain fit. The common problem of initial transients in noise time series is solved with a proper initialization of the filter recursive equations. The noise generator performances were tested in a two dimensional case study of the LTP dynamics along the two principal channels of the sensing interferometer.Comment: Accepted for publication in Physical Review D (http://prd.aps.org/

Physical instrumental vetoes for gravitational-wave burst triggers

We present a robust strategy to \emph{veto} certain classes of instrumental glitches that appear at the output of interferometric gravitational-wave (GW) detectors.This veto method is `physical' in the sense that, in order to veto a burst trigger, we make use of our knowledge of the coupling of different detector subsystems to the main detector output. The main idea behind this method is that the noise in an instrumental channel X can be \emph{transferred} to the detector output (channel H) using the \emph{transfer function} from X to H, provided the noise coupling is \emph{linear} and the transfer function is \emph{unique}. If a non-stationarity in channel H is causally related to one in channel X, the two have to be consistent with the transfer function. We formulate two methods for testing the consistency between the burst triggers in channel X and channel H. One method makes use of the \emph{null-stream} constructed from channel H and the \emph{transferred} channel X, and the second involves cross-correlating the two. We demonstrate the efficiency of the veto by `injecting' instrumental glitches in the hardware of the GEO 600 detector. The \emph{veto safety} is demonstrated by performing GW-like hardware injections. We also show an example application of this method using 5 days of data from the fifth science run of GEO 600. The method is found to have very high veto efficiency with a very low accidental veto rate.Comment: Minor changes, To appear in Phys. Rev.

Investigating the response of leaf area index to droughts in southern African vegetation using observations and model-simulations

In many regions of the world, frequent and continual dry spells are exacerbating drought conditions, which have severe impacts on vegetation biomes. Vegetation in southern Africa is among the most affected by drought. Here, we assessed the spatiotemporal characteristics of meteorological drought in southern Africa using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) over a 30-year period (1982–2011). The severity and the effects of droughts on vegetation productiveness were examined at different drought timescales (1- to 24-month timescales). In this study, we characterized vegetation using the leaf area index (LAI) after evaluating its relationship with the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Correlating the LAI with the SPEI, we found that the LAI responds strongly (r=0.6) to drought over the central and southeastern parts of the region, with weaker impacts (r<0.4) over parts of Madagascar, Angola, and the western parts of South Africa. Furthermore, the latitudinal distribution of LAI responses to drought indicates a similar temporal pattern but different magnitudes across timescales. The results of the study also showed that the seasonal response across different southern African biomes varies in magnitude and occurs mostly at shorter to intermediate timescales. The semi-desert biome strongly correlates (r=0.95) to drought as characterized by the SPEI at a 6-month timescale in the MAM (March–May; summer) season, while the tropical forest biome shows the weakest response (r=0.35) at a 6-month timescale in the DJF (December–February; hot and rainy) season. In addition, we found that the spatial pattern of change of LAI and SPEI are mostly similar during extremely dry and wet years, with the highest anomaly observed in the dry year of 1991, and we found different temporal variability in global and regional responses across different biomes. We also examined how well an ensemble of state-of-the-art dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) simulate the LAI and its response to drought. The spatial and seasonal response of the LAI to drought is mostly overestimated in the DGVM multimodel ensemble compared to the response calculated for the observation-based data. The correlation coefficient values for the multimodel ensemble are as high as 0.76 (annual) over South Africa and 0.98 in the MAM season over the temperate grassland biome. Furthermore, the DGVM model ensemble shows positive biases (3 months or longer) in the simulation of spatial distribution of drought timescales and overestimates the seasonal distribution timescales. The results of this study highlight the areas to target for further development of DGVMs and can be used to improve the models' capability in simulating the drought–vegetation relationship

A template bank for gravitational waveforms from coalescing binary black holes: non-spinning binaries

Gravitational waveforms from the inspiral and ring-down stages of the binary black hole coalescences can be modelled accurately by approximation/perturbation techniques in general relativity. Recent progress in numerical relativity has enabled us to model also the non-perturbative merger phase of the binary black-hole coalescence problem. This enables us to \emph{coherently} search for all three stages of the coalescence of non-spinning binary black holes using a single template bank. Taking our motivation from these results, we propose a family of template waveforms which can model the inspiral, merger, and ring-down stages of the coalescence of non-spinning binary black holes that follow quasi-circular inspiral. This two-dimensional template family is explicitly parametrized by the physical parameters of the binary. We show that the template family is not only \emph{effectual} in detecting the signals from black hole coalescences, but also \emph{faithful} in estimating the parameters of the binary. We compare the sensitivity of a search (in the context of different ground-based interferometers) using all three stages of the black hole coalescence with other template-based searches which look for individual stages separately. We find that the proposed search is significantly more sensitive than other template-based searches for a substantial mass-range, potentially bringing about remarkable improvement in the event-rate of ground-based interferometers. As part of this work, we also prescribe a general procedure to construct interpolated template banks using non-spinning black hole waveforms produced by numerical relativity.Comment: A typo fixed in Eq.(B11