How Does the Past of a Soccer Match Influence Its Future? Concepts and Statistical Analysis

Scoring goals in a soccer match can be interpreted as a stochastic process. In the most simple description of a soccer match one assumes that scoring goals follows from independent rate processes of both teams. This would imply simple Poissonian and Markovian behavior. Deviations from this behavior would imply that the previous course of the match has an impact on the present match behavior. Here a general framework for the identification of deviations from this behavior is presented. For this endeavor it is essential to formulate an a priori estimate of the expected number of goals per team in a specific match. This can be done based on our previous work on the estimation of team strengths. Furthermore, the well-known general increase of the number of the goals in the course of a soccer match has to be removed by appropriate normalization. In general, three different types of deviations from a simple rate process can exist. First, the goal rate may depend on the exact time of the previous goals. Second, it may be influenced by the time passed since the previous goal and, third, it may reflect the present score. We show that the Poissonian scenario is fulfilled quite well for the German Bundesliga. However, a detailed analysis reveals significant deviations for the second and third aspect. Dramatic effects are observed if the away team leads by one or two goals in the final part of the match. This analysis allows one to identify generic features about soccer matches and to learn about the hidden complexities behind scoring goals. Among others the reason for the fact that the number of draws is larger than statistically expected can be identified.

Contributions to the mixed-alkali effect in molecular dynamics simulations of alkali silicate glasses

The mixed-alkali effect on the cation dynamics in silicate glasses is analyzed via molecular dynamics simulations. Observations suggest a description of the dynamics in terms of stable sites mostly specific to one ionic species. As main contributions to the mixed--alkali slowdown longer residence times and an increased probability of correlated backjumps are identified. The slowdown is related to the limited accessibility of foreign sites. The mismatch experienced in a foreign site is stronger and more retarding for the larger ions, the smaller ions can be temporarily accommodated. Also correlations between unlike as well as like cations are demonstrated that support cooperative behavior.Comment: 10 pages, 12 figures, 1 table, revtex4, submitted to Phys. Rev.

Tunneling dynamics of side chains and defects in proteins, polymer glasses, and OH-doped network glasses

Simulations on a Lennard-Jones computer glass are performed to study effects arising from defects in glasses at low temperatures. The numerical analysis reveals that already a low concentration of defects may dramatically change the low temperature properties by giving rise to extrinsic double-well potentials (DWP's). The main characteristics of these extrinsic DWP's are (i) high barrier heights, (ii) high probability that a defect is indeed connected with an extrinsic DWP, (iii) highly localized dynamics around this defect, and (iv) smaller deformation potential coupling to phonons. Designing an extension of the Standard Tunneling Model (STM) which parametrizes this picture and comparing with ultrasound experiments on the wet network glass $a$-B$_2$O$_3$ shows that effects of OH-impurities are accurately accounted for. This model is then applied to organic polymer glasses and proteins. It is suggested that side groups may act similarly like doped impurities inasmuch as extrinsic DWP's are induced, which possess a distribution of barriers peaked around a high barrier height. This compares with the structurlessly distributed barrier heights of the intrinsic DWP's, which are associated with the backbone dynamics. It is shown that this picture is consistent with elastic measurements on polymers, and can explain anomalous nonlogarithmic line broadening recently observed in hole burning experiments in PMMA.Comment: 34 pages, Revtex, 9 eps-figures, accepted for publication in J. Chem. Phy

Dynamic effects on the loss of control in template-directed nucleation

Full nucleation control for deposited functional molecules on pre-patterned surfaces is of major technological relevance. To understand the nucleation behavior we combine the numerical solution for the evolution of the adatom concentration with standard nucleation theory. From the qualitative change in nucleation behavior upon variation of the pattern spacing and coverage we show why the quality of nucleation control can vary significantly in different parameter regimes. In some limits analytical expressions can be formulated for the nucleation control. Our analysis provides a theoretical explanation for previous experimental observations [Wang et al, PRL 98, 225504 (2007)]

Memory effects in the relaxation of the Gaussian trap model

We investigate the memory effect in a simple model for glassy relaxation, a trap model with a Gaussian density of states. In this model thermal equilibrium is reached at all finite temperatures and therefore we can consider jumps from low to high temperatures in addition to the quenches usually considered in aging studies. We show that the evolution of the energy following the Kovacs-protocol can approximately be expressed as a difference of two monotonously decaying functions and thus show the existence of a so-called Kovacs hump whenever these functions are not single exponentials. It is well established that the Kovacs effect also occurs in the linear response regime and we show that most of the gross features do not change dramatically when large temperature jumps are considered. However, there is one distinguishing feature that only exists beyond the linear regime which we discuss in detail. For the memory experiment with 'inverted' temperatures, i.e. jumping up and then down again, we find a very similar behavior apart from an opposite sign of the hump.Comment: 16 pages, 13 figure

Finite-Size Effects in a Supercooled Liquid

We study the influence of the system size on various static and dynamic properties of a supercooled binary Lennard-Jones liquid via computer simulations. In this way, we demonstrate that the treatment of systems as small as N=65 particles yields relevant results for the understanding of bulk properties. Especially, we find that a system of N=130 particles behaves basically as two non-interacting systems of half the size.Comment: Proceedings of the III Workshop on Non Equilibrium Phenomena in Supercooled Fluids, Glasses and Amorphous Materials, Sep 2002, Pis

The potential energy landscape of a model glass former: thermodynamics, anharmonicities, and finite size effects

It is possible to formulate the thermodynamics of a glass forming system in terms of the properties of inherent structures, which correspond to the minima of the potential energy and build up the potential energy landscape in the high-dimensional configuration space. In this work we quantitatively apply this general approach to a simulated model glass-forming system. We systematically vary the system size between N=20 and N=160. This analysis enables us to determine for which temperature range the properties of the glass former are governed by the regions of the configuration space, close to the inherent structures. Furthermore, we obtain detailed information about the nature of anharmonic contributions. Moreover, we can explain the presence of finite size effects in terms of specific properties of the energy landscape. Finally, determination of the total number of inherent structures for very small systems enables us to estimate the Kauzmann temperature

Astrocyte dysfunction and neuronal network hyperactivity in a CRISPR engineered pluripotent stem cell model of frontotemporal dementia

Frontotemporal dementia (FTD) is the second most prevalent type of early-onset dementia and up to 40% of cases are familial forms. One of the genes mutated in patients is CHMP2B, which encodes a protein found in a complex important for maturation of late endosomes, an essential process for recycling membrane proteins through the endolysosomal system. Here, we have generated a CHMP2B-mutated human embryonic stem cell line using genome editing with the purpose to create a human in vitro FTD disease model. To date, most studies have focused on neuronal alterations; however, we present a new co-culture system in which neurons and astrocytes are independently generated from human embryonic stem cells and combined in co-cultures. With this approach, we have identified alterations in the endolysosomal system of FTD astrocytes, a higher capacity of astrocytes to uptake and respond to glutamate, and a neuronal network hyperactivity as well as excessive synchronization. Overall, our data indicates that astrocyte alterations precede neuronal impairments and could potentially trigger neuronal network changes, indicating the important and specific role of astrocytes in disease development

Bose-Einstein Correlations of Three Charged Pions in Hadronic Z^0 Decays

Bose-Einstein Correlations (BEC) of three identical charged pions were studied in 4 x 10^6 hadronic Z^0 decays recorded with the OPAL detector at LEP. The genuine three-pion correlations, corrected for the Coulomb effect, were separated from the known two-pion correlations by a new subtraction procedure. A significant genuine three-pion BEC enhancement near threshold was observed having an emitter source radius of r_3 = 0.580 +/- 0.004 (stat.) +/- 0.029 (syst.) fm and a strength of \lambda_3 = 0.504 +/- 0.010 (stat.) +/- 0.041 (syst.). The Coulomb correction was found to increase the \lambda_3 value by \~9% and to reduce r_3 by ~6%. The measured \lambda_3 corresponds to a value of 0.707 +/- 0.014 (stat.) +/- 0.078 (syst.) when one takes into account the three-pion sample purity. A relation between the two-pion and the three-pion source parameters is discussed.Comment: 19 pages, LaTeX, 5 eps figures included, accepted by Eur. Phys. J.