Partisan impacts on the economy: evidence from prediction markets and close elections

Analyses of the effects of election outcomes on the economy have been hampered by the problem that economic outcomes also influence elections. We sidestep these problems by analyzing movements in economic indicators caused by clearly exogenous changes in expectations about the likely winner during election day. Analyzing high frequency financial fluctuations following the release of flawed exit poll data on election day 2004, and then during the vote count we find that markets anticipated higher equity prices, interest rates and oil prices, and a stronger dollar under a George W. Bush presidency than under John Kerry. A similar Republican–Democrat differential was also observed for the 2000 Bush–Gore contest. Prediction market based analyses of all presidential elections since 1880 also reveal a similar pattern of partisan impacts, suggesting that electing a Republican president raises equity valuations by 2–3 percent, and that since Ronald Reagan, Republican presidents have tended to raise bond yields

Stratigraphy of the Palo Duro Basin- A Status Report

Since the beginning of Bureau research into the Palo Duro Basin area in 1979, more than 150 geologic reports have been completed and published. Approximately 30 are currently in press. Because of continuing research in the area, however, a great deal of additional work still remains unpublished. This report provides an update on ongoing, as yet unpublished research into the stratigraphy of the Palo Duro Basin (fig. 1). Although investigations on some scale are being carried out on essentially all of the stratigraphic horizons in the Palo Duro Basin area (fig. 2), only those units which have recently been the focus of relatively concentrated research efforts are reported herein. This necessarily includes those units being analyzed for hydrocarbon potential (Mississippian and Pennsylvanian Systems), those that are the focus of hydrologic studies (Permian Wolfcamp Series and Permo-Triassic Dockum Group and Dewey Lake Formation), and the proposed waste repository horizon (Permian San Andres Formation). Work on other stratigraphic units is of lower priority and is being carried out peripherally. Table 1 indicates researchers responsible for contributions to this report and those who are continuing to study various stratigraphic units in the area.Bureau of Economic Geolog

Scaffold attachment factor B1 (SAFB1) heterozygosity does not influence Wnt-1 or DMBA-induced tumorigenesis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Scaffold Attachment Factor B1 (SAFB1) is a multifunctional protein which has been implicated in breast cancer previously. We recently generated SAFB1 knockout mice (SAFB1^-/-), but pleiotropic phenotypes including high lethality, dwarfism associated with low IGF-I levels, and infertility and subfertility in male and female mice, respectively, do not allow for straightforward tumorigenesis studies in these mice. Therefore, we asked whether SAFB1 heterozygosity would influence tumor development and progression in MMTV-Wnt-1 oncomice or DMBA induced tumorigenicity, in a manner consistent with haploinsufficiency of the remaining allele.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We crossed female SAFB1^+/-(C57B6/129) mice with male MMTV-Wnt-1 (C57B6/SJL) mice to obtain SAFB1^+/+/Wnt-1, SAFB1^+/-/Wnt-1, and SAFB1^+/-mice. For the chemical induced tumorigenesis study we treated 8 weeks old SAFB1^+/-and SAFB^+/+BALB/c mice with 1 mg DMBA once per week for 6 weeks. Animals were monitored for tumor incidence and tumor growth. Tumors were characterized by performing H&E, and by staining for markers of proliferation and apoptosis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We did not detect significant differences in tumor incidence and growth between SAFB1^+/+/Wnt-1 and SAFB1^+/-/Wnt-1 mice, and between DMBA-treated SAFB1^+/+and SAFB1^+/-mice. Histological evaluation of tumors showed that SAFB1 heterozygosity did not lead to changes in proliferation or apoptosis. There were, however, significant differences in the distribution of tumor histologies with an increase in papillary and cribriform tumors, and a decrease in squamous tumors in the SAFB1^+/-/Wnt-1 compared to the SAFB1^+/+/Wnt-1 tumors. Of note, DMBA treatment resulted in shortened survival of SAFB1^+/-mice compared to their wildtype littermates, however this trend did not reach statistical significance.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our data show that SAFB1 heterozygosity does not influence Wnt-1 or DMBA-induced mammary tumorigenesis.</p

Identification of functional differences between recombinant human α and β cardiac myosin motors

The myosin isoform composition of the heart is dynamic in health and disease and has been shown to affect contractile velocity and force generation. While different mammalian species express different proportions of α and β myosin heavy chain, healthy human heart ventricles express these isoforms in a ratio of about 1:9 (α:β) while failing human ventricles express no detectable α-myosin. We report here fast-kinetic analysis of recombinant human α and β myosin heavy chain motor domains. This represents the first such analysis of any human muscle myosin motor and the first of α-myosin from any species. Our findings reveal substantial isoform differences in individual kinetic parameters, overall contractile character, and predicted cycle times. For these parameters, α-subfragment 1 (S1) is far more similar to adult fast skeletal muscle myosin isoforms than to the slow β isoform despite 91% sequence identity between the motor domains of α- and β-myosin. Among the features that differentiate α- from β-S1: the ATP hydrolysis step of α-S1 is ~ten-fold faster than β-S1, α-S1 exhibits ~five-fold weaker actin affinity than β-S1, and actin·α-S1 exhibits rapid ADP release, which is >ten-fold faster than ADP release for β-S1. Overall, the cycle times are ten-fold faster for α-S1 but the portion of time each myosin spends tightly bound to actin (the duty ratio) is similar. Sequence analysis points to regions that might underlie the basis for this finding

DEDICATE: proposal for a conceptual framework to develop dementia-friendly Integrated eCare support

Background: Evidence shows that the implementation of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) enabled services supporting integrated dementia care represents an opportunity that faces multi-pronged challenges. First, the provision of dementia support is fragmented and often inappropriate. Second, available ICT solutions in this field do not address the full spectrum of support needs arising across an individual’s whole dementia journey. Current solutions fail to harness the potential of available validated e-health services, such as telehealth and telecare, for the purposes of dementia care. Third, there is a lack of understanding of how viable business models in this field can operate. The field comprises both professional and non-professional players that interact and have roles to play in ensuring that useful technologies are developed, implemented and used. Methods: Starting from a literature review, including relevant pilot projects for ICT-based dementia care, we define the major requirements of a system able to overcome the limitations evidenced in the literature, and how this system should be integrated in the socio-technical ecosystem characterizing this disease. From here, we define the DEDICATE architecture of such a system, and the conceptual framework mapping the architecture over the requirements. Results: We identified three macro-requirements, namely the need to overcome: deficient technology innovation, deficient service process innovation, and deficient business models innovation. The proposed architecture is a three level architecture in which the center (data layer) includes patients’ and informal caregivers’ preferences, memories, and other personal data relevant to sustain the dementia journey, is connected through a middleware (service layer), which guarantees core IT services and integration, to dedicated applications (application layer) to sustain dementia care (Formal Support Services, FSS), and to existing formal care infrastructures, in order to guarantee care coordination (Care Coordination Services, CCS). Conclusions: The proposed DEDICATE architecture and framework envisages a feasible means to overcome the present barriers by: (1) developing and integrating technologies that can follow the patient and the caregivers throughout the development of the condition, since the early stages in which the patient is able to build up preferences and memories will be used in the later stages to maximise personalization and thereby improve efficacy and usability (technology innovation); (2) guaranteeing the care coordination between formal and informal caregivers, and giving an active yet supported role to the latter (service innovation); and (3) integrating existing infrastructures and care models to decrease the cost of the overall care pathway, by improving system interoperability (business model innovation)

Voting Technology, Vote-by-Mail, and Residual Votes in California, 1990-2010

This paper examines how the growth in vote-by-mail and changes in voting technologies led to changes in the residual vote rate in California from 1990 to 2010. We find that in California’s presidential elections, counties that abandoned punch cards in favor of optical scanning enjoyed a significant improvement in the residual vote rate. However, these findings do not always translate to other races. For instance, find that the InkaVote system in Los Angeles has been a mixed success, performing very well in presidential and gubernatorial races, fairly well for ballot propositions, and poorly in Senate races. We also conduct the first analysis of the effects of the rise of vote-by-mail on residual votes. Regardless of the race, increased use of the mails to cast ballots is robustly associated with a rise in the residual vote rate. The effect is so strong that the rise of voting by mail in California has mostly wiped out all the reductions in residual votes that were due to improved voting technologies since the early 1990s

Proceedings of the Third Annual Deep Brain Stimulation Think Tank: A Review of Emerging Issues and Technologies

The proceedings of the 3rd Annual Deep Brain Stimulation Think Tank summarize the most contemporary clinical, electrophysiological, imaging, and computational work on DBS for the treatment of neurological and neuropsychiatric disease. Significant innovations of the past year are emphasized. The Think Tank\u27s contributors represent a unique multidisciplinary ensemble of expert neurologists, neurosurgeons, neuropsychologists, psychiatrists, scientists, engineers, and members of industry. Presentations and discussions covered a broad range of topics, including policy and advocacy considerations for the future of DBS, connectomic approaches to DBS targeting, developments in electrophysiology and related strides toward responsive DBS systems, and recent developments in sensor and device technologies

A Very Early-Branching Staphylococcus aureus Lineage Lacking the Carotenoid Pigment Staphyloxanthin

Here we discuss the evolution of the northern Australian Staphylococcus aureus isolate MSHR1132 genome. MSHR1132 belongs to the divergent clonal complex 75 lineage. The average nucleotide divergence between orthologous genes in MSHR1132 and typical S. aureus is approximately sevenfold greater than the maximum divergence observed in this species to date. MSHR1132 has a small accessory genome, which includes the well-characterized genomic islands, νSAα and νSaβ, suggesting that these elements were acquired well before the expansion of the typical S. aureus population. Other mobile elements show mosaic structure (the prophage φSa3) or evidence of recent acquisition from a typical S. aureus lineage (SCCmec, ICE6013 and plasmid pMSHR1132). There are two differences in gene repertoire compared with typical S. aureus that may be significant clues as to the genetic basis underlying the successful emergence of S. aureus as a pathogen. First, MSHR1132 lacks the genes for production of staphyloxanthin, the carotenoid pigment that confers upon S. aureus its characteristic golden color and protects against oxidative stress. The lack of pigment was demonstrated in 126 of 126 CC75 isolates. Second, a mobile clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeat (CRISPR) element is inserted into orfX of MSHR1132. Although common in other staphylococcal species, these elements are very rare within S. aureus and may impact accessory genome acquisition. The CRISPR spacer sequences reveal a history of attempted invasion by known S. aureus mobile elements. There is a case for the creation of a new taxon to accommodate this and related isolates

An Estimate of Avian Mortality at Communication Towers in the United States and Canada

Avian mortality at communication towers in the continental United States and Canada is an issue of pressing conservation concern. Previous estimates of this mortality have been based on limited data and have not included Canada. We compiled a database of communication towers in the continental United States and Canada and estimated avian mortality by tower with a regression relating avian mortality to tower height. This equation was derived from 38 tower studies for which mortality data were available and corrected for sampling effort, search efficiency, and scavenging where appropriate. Although most studies document mortality at guyed towers with steady-burning lights, we accounted for lower mortality at towers without guy wires or steady-burning lights by adjusting estimates based on published studies. The resulting estimate of mortality at towers is 6.8 million birds per year in the United States and Canada. Bootstrapped subsampling indicated that the regression was robust to the choice of studies included and a comparison of multiple regression models showed that incorporating sampling, scavenging, and search efficiency adjustments improved model fit. Estimating total avian mortality is only a first step in developing an assessment of the biological significance of mortality at communication towers for individual species or groups of species. Nevertheless, our estimate can be used to evaluate this source of mortality, develop subsequent per-species mortality estimates, and motivate policy action