"Comparing alternative methods to estimate gravity models of bilateral trade"

The gravity equation has been traditionally used to predict trade flows across countries. However, several problems related with its empirical application still remain unsolved. In this paper, I provide a survey of the recent literature concerning the specification and estimation methods of this equation. In addition, I compare the performance of two widely extended estimators, panel OLS and Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML), for a dataset covering 80% of world trade.International trade, Gravity model, Estimation methods

Comparing alternative methods to estimate gravity models of bilateral trade

The gravity equation has been traditionally used to predict trade flows across countries. However, several problems related with its empirical application still remain unsolved. In this paper, I provide a survey of the recent literature concerning the specification and estimation methods of this equation. In addition, I compare the performance of two widely extended estimators, panel OLS and Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML), for a dataset covering 80% of world trade

A gender perspective on artificial intelligence and jobs: The vicious cycle of digital inequality. Bruegel WORKING PAPER | ISSUE 15/2022 | 30 AUGUST 2022.

The worldwide artificial intelligence market is expected to increase enormously in the next few years. Because of AI’s immense potential, virtually all industries will be affected by the implementation of AI systems, resulting in the digitalisation and automation of work processes. This will cause disruptive shifts in labour markets, in terms of the number and profiles of jobs in industries as well as worker skill requirements. We take a gender perspective and analyse how gender stereotypes and gendered work segregation on the one hand, and digitalisation and automation (as a consequence of AI implementation) on the other hand, are entangled and result in a vicious cycle of digital gender inequality. We provide insights into the gender-specific impact of AI technologies, which is relevant for the mitigation of the potential risk of the creation of social inequality and exclusion. We show that existing empirical evidence already indicates that AI will not increase gender equality but will somewhat further exacerbate the gender inequality in labour markets, ranging from further horizontal and vertical occupational gender segregation to an increase in the gender pay gap. We summarise policy guidance and measures to decrease gender inequality in the future

EMU impact of on third countries' exports: a gravity approach

In this article we explore the impact of the euro adoption and the effect of the volatility of the real exchange rate on trade both on intra EMU trade and on EMU trade with third countries. To this end, we use a large database covering 93% of world trade that includes 80 countries during the period 1980-2009. We estimate a gravity equation using one of the most complete specifications in the literature to isolate the euro effect from other factors affecting trade, as regional trade agreements or exchange rate volatility. Our results show that the elimination of the volatility boosted export per se especially before 1999 and therefore, the possibility to peg to the euro could boost trade of third countries and between these third countries.Financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation SEJ2007-62081, and the Regional Programs P07-SEJ-03261 and SEJ‐340 of the Regional Government of Andalusia

EMU and Trade Revisited: Long-Run Evidence Using Gravity Equations

In this paper, we present evidence of the long-run effect of the euro on trade for the twelve initial EMU countries for the period 1967–2008 from a double perspective. First, we pool all the bilateral combinations of trade flows among the EMU countries in a panel cointegration gravity specification. Second, we estimate a gravity equation for each of the EMU members vis-à-vis the other eleven partners. We apply panel cointegration techniques based on factor models that account for cross-dependence and structural breaks. Whereas the joint gravity equation provides evidence on the aggregate effect of the euro on intra-European trade, by isolating the individual countries, we assess which of the member countries have obtained a larger benefit from the euro. The results show that the euro has had a positive though small effect on trade. Belgium and Luxembourg, France and Italy are the countries more benefited from the introduction of the euro. The effects for exports to third countries are in general more moderate, and, with the exception of Greece, there is no evidence of diversion effects

The euro impact on trade: long run evidence with structural breaks

In this paper we present new evidence on the euro effect on trade. We use a data set containing all bilateral combinations in a panel of 26 OECD countries during the period 1967-2008. From a methodological point of view, we implement a new generation of tests that allow solving some of the problems derived from the non-stationary nature of the data. To this aim we apply panel tests that account for the presence of cross-section dependence as well as discontinuities in the non-stationary panel data. We test for cointegration between the variables using panel cointegration tests, especially the ones proposed by Banerjee and Carrióni- Silvestre (2010). We also efficiently estimate the long-run relationships using the CUP-BC and CUP-FM estimators proposed in Bai et al. (2009). We argue that, after controlling for cross-section dependence and deterministic trends and breaks in trade integration, the euro appears to generate lower trade effects than predicted in previous studies.Financing from Spanish MICINN [ECO2011-30260-C03-01, ECO2008-05908-C02-01 and 02/ECON and SEJ2007-62081 (E. Gómez)]. M. Camarero and C. Tamarit are members of INTECO research group funded by Generalitat Valenciana, project PROMETEO/2009/098

EMU and intra-European trade: long-run evidence using gravity equations

In this article we present evidence of the long-run effect of the euro on exports for the twelve initial EMU countries for the period 1967-2008 from a double perspective. First, we pool all the bilateral combinations of export flows among the EMU countries in a panel cointegration gravity specification. Second, we estimate a gravity equation for each of the EMU-members vis-à-vis the other eleven partners. Whereas the joint gravity equation provides evidence on the aggregate effect of the euro on intra-European exports, by isolating the individual countries we assess which of them have obtained a larger benefit from the euro. Moreover, this strategy permits to check the robustness of the aggregate results and to find possible asymmetries. Finally, we repeat both the aggregated and individual analysis for the bilateral exports of EMU members to third countries. From an econometric point of view, we apply panel cointegration techniques based on factor models that account for cross-dependence and structural breaks

Is the ‘euro effect’ on trade so small after all? New evidence using gravity equations with panel cointegration techniques

In this paper we present new evidence on the aggregate effect of the euro on trade using data for 26 OECD countries for the period 1967–2008. We strive to fill the gaps present in the previous literature through a second-generation panel cointegration tests and estimators that account for both cross-section dependence in the data and discontinuities in the deterministic and the cointegrating vector in the time dimension. This approach allows us to put the adoption of the euro by EMU members in historical perspective. We argue that the creation of the EMU is best interpreted as a progression of policy changes. Once we control for all of them the euro effect decreases considerably but is still significant

The drivers and impediments for cross-border e-commerce in the EU

There are no official statistics on international online trade in goods so far. This paper uses a consumer survey to construct a unique matrix of online B2C domestic and cross-border trade in goods between the 27 EU Member States. We compare online and offline trade patterns for similar goods. We find that the standard gravity model performs well in explaining online cross-border trade flows. The model confirms the strong reduction in geographical distance-related trade costs, compared to offline trade. However, the trade costs associated with crossing language barriers increase when moving from offline to online trade. Institutional variables such as online payments facilities and cost-efficiency of parcel delivery systems might play a significant role in cross-border trade and our analysis confirms this. In a linguistically segmented market like the EU, online home market bias remains high compared to bias in offline cross-border trade. We conclude that it is hard to predict at this stage whether regulators could boost online cross-border trade through improvements in legal and financial systems, and parcel delivery infrastructure.JRC.J.3-Information Societ

Editorial : Plant transformation

Plant transformation provides a key tool for much basic research, such as the study of gene functions and interactions, protein–protein interactions, developmental processes, as well as applications for crop improvement and the development of plant bioreactors to produce vaccines. Efficient and reproducible transformation technologies are not only essential for the development of transgenic plants but also critical for other applications like transient gene expression studies and gene editing.Instituto de BiotecnologíaFil: Hopp, Horacio Esteban. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Instituto de Agrobiotecnología y Biología Molecular; ArgentinaFil: Hopp, Horacio Esteban. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Hopp, Horacio Esteban. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Fisiología, Biología Molecular y Celular; ArgentinaFil: Spangenberg, German. La Trobe University. Agriculture Victoria. AgriBio; AustraliaFil: Herrera-Estrella, Luis. Texas Tech University. Institute of Genomics for Crop Abiotic Stress Tolerance. Plant and Soil Science Department; Estados UnidosFil: Herrera-Estrella, Luis. Centro de Investigación y de Estudios Avanzados. Unidad de Genómica Avanzada. Laboratorio Nacional de Genómica para la Biodiversidad (LANGEBIO); Méxic