Iron-Phosphorus Feedbacks Drive Multidecadal Oscillations in Baltic Sea Hypoxia

Hypoxia has occurred intermittently in the Baltic Sea since the establishment of brackish-water conditions at similar to 8,000 years B.P., principally as recurrent hypoxic events during the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM) and the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA). Sedimentary phosphorus release has been implicated as a key driver of these events, but previous paleoenvironmental reconstructions have lacked the sampling resolution to investigate feedbacks in past iron-phosphorus cycling on short timescales. Here we employ Laser Ablation (LA)-ICP-MS scanning of sediment cores to generate ultra-high resolution geochemical records of past hypoxic events. We show that in-phase multidecadal oscillations in hypoxia intensity and iron-phosphorus cycling occurred throughout these events. Using a box model, we demonstrate that such oscillations were likely driven by instabilities in the dynamics of iron-phosphorus cycling under preindustrial phosphorus loads, and modulated by external climate forcing. Oscillatory behavior could complicate the recovery from hypoxia during future trajectories of external loading reductions.Peer reviewe

Effectiveness of a cervical pessary for women who did not deliver 48 h after threatened preterm labor (Assessment of perinatal outcome after specific treatment in early labor: Apostel VI trial)

Background: Preterm birth is a major cause of neonatal mortality and morbidity. As preventive strategies are largely ineffective, threatened preterm labor is a frequent problem that affects approximately 10 % of pregnancies. In recent years, risk assessment in these women has incorporated cervical length measurement and fetal fibronectin testing, and this has improved the capacity to identify women at increased risk for delivery within 14 days. Despite these improvements, risk for preterm birth continues to be increased in women who did not deliver after an episode of threatened preterm labor, as indicated by a preterm birth rate between 30 to 60 % in this group of women. Currently no effective treatment is available. Studies on maintenance tocolysis and progesterone have shown ambiguous results. The pessary has not been evaluated in women with threatened preterm labor, however studies in asymptomatic women with a short cervix show reduced rates of preterm birth rates as well as perinatal complications. The APOSTEL VI trial aims to assess the effectiveness of a cervical pessary in women who did not deliver within 48 h after an episode of threatened preterm labor. Methods/Design: This is a nationwide multicenter open-label randomized clinical trial. Women with a singleton or twin gestation with intact membranes, who were admitted for threatened preterm labor, at a gestational age between 24 and 34 weeks, a cervical length between 15 and 30 mm and a positive fibronectin test or a cervical length below 15 mm, who did not deliver after 48 h will be eligible for inclusion. Women will be allocated to a pessary or no intervention (usual care). Primary outcome is preterm delivery <37 weeks. Secondary outcomes are amongst others a composite of perinatal morbidity and mortality. Sample size is based on an expected 50 % reduction of preterm birth before 37 weeks (two-sided test, a 0.05 and beta 0.2). Two hundred women with a singleton pregnancy need to be randomized. Analysis will be done by intention to treat. Discussion: The APOSTEL VI trial will provide evidence whether a pessary is effective in preventing preterm birth in women who did not deliver 48 h after admission for threatened pretermlabor and who remain at high risk for preterm birth

Projecting global mean sea-level change using CMIP6 models

The effective climate sensitivity (EffCS) of models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) has increased relative to CMIP5. We explore the implications of this for global mean sea‐level (GMSL) change projections in 2100 for three emissions scenarios. CMIP6 projections of global surface air temperature are substantially higher than in CMIP5, but projections of global mean thermal expansion are not. Using these projections as input to construct projections of GMSL change with IPCC AR5 methods, the 95th percentile of GMSL change at 2100 only increases by 3‐7 cm. Projected rates of GMSL rise around 2100 increase more strongly, though, implying more pronounced differences beyond 2100 and greater committed sea‐level rise. Inter‐model differences in GMSL projections indicate that EffCS‐based model selection may substantially alter the ensemble projections. GMSL change in 2100 is accurately predicted by time‐integrated temperature change, and thus requires reducing emissions early to be mitigated

Eight years after an international workshop on myotonic dystrophy patient registries: case study of a global collaboration for a rare disease.

Background Myotonic Dystrophy is the most common form of muscular dystrophy in adults, affecting an estimated 10 per 100,000 people. It is a multisystemic disorder affecting multiple generations with increasing severity. There are currently no licenced therapies to reverse, slow down or cure its symptoms. In 2009 TREAT-NMD (a global alliance with the mission of improving trial readiness for neuromuscular diseases) and the Marigold Foundation held a workshop of key opinion leaders to agree a minimal dataset for patient registries in myotonic dystrophy. Eight years after this workshop, we surveyed 22 registries collecting information on myotonic dystrophy patients to assess the proliferation and utility the dataset agreed in 2009. These registries represent over 10,000 myotonic dystrophy patients worldwide (Europe, North America, Asia and Oceania). Results The registries use a variety of data collection methods (e.g. online patient surveys or clinician led) and have a variety of budgets (from being run by volunteers to annual budgets over €200,000). All registries collect at least some of the originally agreed data items, and a number of additional items have been suggested in particular items on cognitive impact. Conclusions The community should consider how to maximise this collective resource in future therapeutic programmes

Intercomparison of NO2, O4, O3 and HCHO slant column measurements by MAX-DOAS and zenith-sky UV¿visible spectrometers during CINDI-2

40 pags., 22 figs., 13 tabs.In September 2016, 36 spectrometers from 24 institutes measured a number of key atmospheric pollutants for a period of 17¿d during the Second Cabauw Intercomparison campaign for Nitrogen Dioxide measuring Instruments (CINDI-2) that took place at Cabauw, the Netherlands (51.97¿¿N, 4.93¿¿E). We report on the outcome of the formal semi-blind intercomparison exercise, which was held under the umbrella of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) and the European Space Agency (ESA). The three major goals of CINDI-2 were (1) to characterise and better understand the differences between a large number of multi-axis differential optical absorption spectroscopy (MAX-DOAS) and zenith-sky DOAS instruments and analysis methods, (2) to define a robust methodology for performance assessment of all participating instruments, and (3) to contribute to a harmonisation of the measurement settings and retrieval methods. This, in turn, creates the capability to produce consistent high-quality ground-based data sets, which are an essential requirement to generate reliable long-term measurement time series suitable for trend analysis and satellite data validation. The data products investigated during the semi-blind intercomparison are slant columns of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), the oxygen collision complex (O4) and ozone (O3) measured in the UV and visible wavelength region, formaldehyde (HCHO) in the UV spectral region, and NO2 in an additional (smaller) wavelength range in the visible region. The campaign design and implementation processes are discussed in detail including the measurement protocol, calibration procedures and slant column retrieval settings. Strong emphasis was put on the careful alignment and synchronisation of the measurement systems, resulting in a unique set of measurements made under highly comparable air mass conditions. The CINDI-2 data sets were investigated using a regression analysis of the slant columns measured by each instrument and for each of the target data products. The slope and intercept of the regression analysis respectively quantify the mean systematic bias and offset of the individual data sets against the selected reference (which is obtained from the median of either all data sets or a subset), and the rms error provides an estimate of the measurement noise or dispersion. These three criteria are examined and for each of the parameters and each of the data products, performance thresholds are set and applied to all the measurements. The approach presented here has been developed based on heritage from previous intercomparison exercises. It introduces a quantitative assessment of the consistency between all the participating instruments for the MAX-DOAS and zenith-sky DOAS techniques.CINDI-2 received funding from the Netherlands Space Office (NSO). Funding for this study was provided by ESA through the CINDI-2 (ESA contract no. 4000118533/16/ISbo) and FRM4DOAS (ESA contract no. 4000118181/16/I-EF) projects and partly within the EU 7th Framework Programme QA4ECV project (grant agreement no. 607405). The BOKU MAX-DOAS instrument was funded and the participation of Stefan F. Schreier was supported by the Austrian Science Fund (FWF): I 2296-N29. The participation of the University of Toronto team was supported by the Canadian Space Agency (through the AVATARS project) and the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (through the PAHA project). The instrument was primarily funded by the Canada Foundation for Innovation and is usually operated at the Polar Environment Atmospheric Research Laboratory (PEARL) by the Canadian Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Change (CANDAC). Funding for CISC was provided by the UVAS (“Ultraviolet and Visible Atmospheric Sounder”) projects SEOSAT/INGENIO, ESP2015-71299- R, MINECO-FEDER and UE. The activities of the IUP-Heidelberg were supported by the DFG project RAPSODI (grant no. PL 193/17-1). SAOZ and Mini-SAOZ instruments are supported by the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) and the Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales (CNES). INTA recognises support from the National funding projects HELADO (CTM2013-41311-P) and AVATAR (CGL2014-55230-R). AMOIAP recognises support from the Russian Science Foundation (grant no. 16-17-10275) and the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (grant nos. 16-05- 01062 and 18-35-00682). Ka L. Chan received transnational access funding from ACTRIS-2 (H2020 grant agreement no. 654109). Rainer Volkamer recognises funding from NASA’s Atmospheric Composition Program (NASA-16-NUP2016-0001) and the US National Science Foundation (award AGS-1620530). Henning Finkenzeller is the recipient of a NASA graduate fellowship. Mihalis Vrekoussis recognises support from the University of Bremen and the DFG Research Center/Cluster of Excellence “The Ocean in the Earth System-MARUM”. Financial support through the University of Bremen Institutional Strategy in the framework of the DFG Excellence Initiative is gratefully appreciated for Anja Schönhardt. Pandora instrument deployment was supported by Luftblick through the ESA Pandonia Project and NASA Pandora Project at the Goddard Space Flight Center under NASA Headquarters’ Tropospheric Composition Program. The article processing charges for this open-access publication were covered by BK Scientific