Hydrogen potential in the future EU energy system:a multi-sectoral, multi-model approach

Climate change is mainly caused by anthropogenic emissions and can result in loss of biodiversity, population displacement, increased inequality and extreme weather events. To minimize the manifestation of these consequences, changes need to be drastic in the coming decade aiming for a carbon-neutral energy system by mid-century. This research focuses on hydrogen and how it can contribute to achieving this (close to) zero-emissions system. Hydrogen is currently already used in the industrial sector, but has potential to be safely used for transport, power and buildings. It can also be used to produce synthetic fuels that would enable seamless practices for the end consumers while ensuring a low-carbon production upstream. This research looks at all the energy society consumes assessing the optimal technology mix to achieve the low-carbon future and determines where is hydrogen needed, how much does it cost, what technologies are needed and how uncertainties in technological development translate into systemic changes. Hydrogen is the most attractive for heavy-duty long-haul transport applications, industrial use (steel) and production of synthetic oil for aviation and chemical industry. Hydrogen could also be used in cars as complement of electricity or long-term energy storage. Hydrogen will enable to achieve a low-carbon system while contributing to minimum increase in energy prices or the total cost that society needs to pay (through for example carbon tax). Currently hydrogen production and use remain costly and needs public support such as in the form of financing to achieve the scale needed to achieve these low costs

A review at the role of storage in energy systems with a focus on Power to Gas and long-term storage

A review of more than 60 studies (plus more than 65 studies on P2G) on power and energy models based on simulation and optimization was done. Based on these, for power systems with up to 95% renewables, the electricity storage size is found to be below 1.5% of the annual demand (in energy terms). While for 100% renewables energy systems (power, heat, mobility), it can remain below 6% of the annual energy demand. Combination of sectors and diverting the electricity to another sector can play a large role in reducing the storage size. From the potential alternatives to satisfy this demand, pumped hydro storage (PHS) globalpotential is not enough and new technologies with a higher energy density are needed. Hydrogen, with more than 250 times the energy density of PHS is a potential option to satisfy the storage need. However, changes needed in infrastructure to deal with high hydrogen content and the suitability of salt caverns for its storage can pose limitations for this technology. Power to Gas (P2G) arises as possible alternative overcoming both the facilities and the energy density issues. The global storage requirement would represent only 2% of the global annual natural gas production or 10% of the gas storage facilities (in energy equivalent). The more options considered to deal with intermittent sources, the lower the storage requirement will be. Therefore, future studiesaiming to quantify storage needs should focus on the entire energy system including technology vectors (e.g. Power to Heat, Liquid, Gas, Chemicals) to avoid overestimating the amount of storage needed

Potential of Power-to-Methane in the EU energy transition to a low carbon system using cost optimization

Power-to-Methane (PtM) can provide flexibility to the electricity grid while aiding decarbonization of other sectors. This study focuses specifically on the methanation component of PtM in 2050. Scenarios with 80–95% CO2 reduction by 2050 (vs. 1990) are analyzed and barriers and drivers for methanation are identified. PtM arises for scenarios with 95% CO2 reduction, no CO2 underground storage and low CAPEX (75 €/kW only for methanation). Capacity deployed across EU is 40 GW (8% of gas demand) for these conditions, which increases to 122 GW when liquefied methane gas (LMG) is used for marine transport. The simultaneous occurrence of all positive drivers for PtM, which include limited biomass potential, low Power-to-Liquid performance, use of PtM waste heat, among others, can increase this capacity to 546 GW (75% of gas demand). Gas demand is reduced to between 3.8 and 14 EJ (compared to ∼20 EJ for 2015) with lower values corresponding to scenarios that are more restricted. Annual costs for PtM are between 2.5 and 10 bln€/year with EU28’s GDP being 15.3 trillion €/year (2017). Results indicate that direct subsidy of the technology is more effective and specific than taxing the fossil alternative (natural gas) if the objective is to promote the technology. Studies with higher spatial resolution should be done to identify specific local conditions that could make PtM more attractive compared to an EU scale

The potential role of H2 production in a sustainable future power system

The operation of a future highly decarbonised (95% CO2 emissions reduction vs 1990) power system, as defined with JRC-EU-TIMES in 2050, is analysed with METIS. The power system is dimensioned in order to provide adequate electricity to a fleet of electrolysers, whose purpose is to produce hydrogen at quantities adequate to supply industrial processes and transport. The analysed power system deviates from current practices in that demand takes over the role of power generation in balancing the system and setting the wholesale market price. The segment of the market where competitive forces set the price shifts from production to demand. Under the assumption of adequate competition between the electrolyser operators the resulting prices could, in most EU member states, arrive at a sustainable equilibrium. This equilibrium – not present in all member states – depends on the ratio between flexible load (electrolyser capacity) and variable renewable generation.JRC.C.7-Knowledge for the Energy Unio

Potential of Power-to-Methane in the EU energy transition to a low carbon system using cost optimization

Power-to-Methane (PtM) can provide flexibility to the electricity grid while aiding decarbonization of other sectors. This study focuses specifically on the methanation component of PtM in 2050. Scenarios with 80–95% CO2 reduction by 2050 (vs. 1990) are analyzed and barriers and drivers for methanation are identified. PtM arises for scenarios with 95% CO2 reduction, no CO2 underground storage and low CAPEX (75 €/kW only for methanation). Capacity deployed across EU is 40 GW (8% of gas demand) for these conditions, which increases to 122 GW when liquefied methane gas (LMG) is used for marine transport. The simultaneous occurrence of all positive drivers for PtM, which include limited biomass potential, low Power-to-Liquid performance, use of PtM waste heat, among others, can increase this capacity to 546 GW (75% of gas demand). Gas demand is reduced to between 3.8 and 14 EJ (compared to ∼20 EJ for 2015) with lower values corresponding to scenarios that are more restricted. Annual costs for PtM are between 2.5 and 10 bln€/year with EU28’s GDP being 15.3 trillion €/year (2017). Results indicate that direct subsidy of the technology is more effective and specific than taxing the fossil alternative (natural gas) if the objective is to promote the technology. Studies with higher spatial resolution should be done to identify specific local conditions that could make PtM more attractive compared to an EU scale

Soft-linking of a behavioral model for transport with energy system cost optimization applied to hydrogen in EU

Fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV) currently have the challenge of high CAPEX mainly associated to the fuel cell. This study investigates strategies to promote FCEV deployment and overcome this initial high cost by combining a detailed simulation model of the passenger transport sector with an energy system model. The focus is on an energy system with 95% CO2 reduction by 2050. Soft-linking by taking the powertrain shares by country from the simulation model is preferred because it considers aspects such as car performance, reliability and safety while keeping the cost optimization to evaluate the impact on the rest of the system. This caused a 14% increase in total cost of car ownership compared to the cost before soft-linking. Gas reforming combined with CO2 storage can provide a low-cost hydrogen source for FCEV in the first years of deployment. Once a lower CAPEX for FCEV is achieved, a higher hydrogen cost from electrolysis can be afforded. The policy with the largest impact on FCEV was a purchase subsidy of 5 k€ per vehicle in the 2030–2034 period resulting in 24.3 million FCEV (on top of 67 million without policy) sold up to 2050 with total subsidies of 84 bln€. 5 bln€ of R&D incentives in the 2020–2024 period increased the cumulative sales up to 2050 by 10.5 million FCEV. Combining these two policies with infrastructure and fuel subsidies for 2030–2034 can result in 76 million FCEV on the road by 2050 representing more than 25% of the total car stock. Country specific incentives, split of demand by distance or shift across modes of transport were not included in this study

Potential of Power-to-Methane in the EU energy transition to a low carbon system using cost optimization

Power-to-Methane (PtM) can provide flexibility to the electricity grid while aiding decarbonization of other sectors. This study focuses specifically on the methanation component of PtM in 2050. Scenarios with 80–95% CO2 reduction by 2050 (vs. 1990) are analyzed and barriers and drivers for methanation are identified. PtM arises for scenarios with 95% CO2 reduction, no CO2 underground storage and low CAPEX (75 €/kW only for methanation). Capacity deployed across EU is 40 GW (8% of gas demand) for these conditions, which increases to 122 GW when liquefied methane gas (LMG) is used for marine transport. The simultaneous occurrence of all positive drivers for PtM, which include limited biomass potential, low Power-to-Liquid performance, use of PtM waste heat, among others, can increase this capacity to 546 GW (75% of gas demand). Gas demand is reduced to between 3.8 and 14 EJ (compared to ∼20 EJ for 2015) with lower values corresponding to scenarios that are more restricted. Annual costs for PtM are between 2.5 and 10 bln€/year with EU28’s GDP being 15.3 trillion €/year (2017). Results indicate that direct subsidy of the technology is more effective and specific than taxing the fossil alternative (natural gas) if the objective is to promote the technology. Studies with higher spatial resolution should be done to identify specific local conditions that could make PtM more attractive compared to an EU scale.JRC.C.7-Knowledge for the Energy Unio

Potential for hydrogen and Power-to-Liquid in a low-carbon EU energy system using cost optimization

Hydrogen represents a versatile energy carrier with net zero end use emissions. Power-to-Liquid (PtL) includes the combination of hydrogen with CO2 to produce liquid fuels and satisfy mostly transport demand. This study assesses the role of these pathways across scenarios that achieve 80–95% CO2 reduction by 2050 (vs. 1990) using the JRC-EU-TIMES model. The gaps in the literature covered in this study include a broader spatial coverage (EU28+) and hydrogen use in all sectors (beyond transport). The large uncertainty in the possible evolution of the energy system has been tackled with an extensive sensitivity analysis. 15 parameters were varied to produce more than 50 scenarios. Results indicate that parameters with the largest influence are the CO2 target, the availability of CO2 underground storage and the biomass potential. Hydrogen demand increases from 7 mtpa today to 20–120 mtpa (2.4–14.4 EJ/yr), mainly used for PtL (up to 70 mtpa), transport (up to 40 mtpa) and industry (25 mtpa). Only when CO2 storage was not possible due to a political ban or social acceptance issues, was electrolysis the main hydrogen production route (90% share) and CO2 use for PtL became attractive. Otherwise, hydrogen was produced through gas reforming with CO2 capture and the preferred CO2 sink was underground. Hydrogen and PtL contribute to energy security and independence allowing to reduce energy related import cost from 420 bln€/yr today to 350 or 50 bln€/yr for 95% CO2 reduction with and without CO2 storage. Development of electrolyzers, fuel cells and fuel synthesis should continue to ensure these technologies are ready when needed. Results from this study should be complemented with studies with higher spatial and temporal resolution. Scenarios with global trading of hydrogen and potential import to the EU were not included.JRC.C.7-Knowledge for the Energy Unio

Global hydrogen trade to meet the 1.5 °C climate goal: Part III – Green hydrogen supply cost and potential

This report estimates the potential for green hydrogen production as a function of land availability, considering exclusion zones such as protected areas, forests, wetlands, urban centres, slope and water scarcity

Soft-linking of a behavioural model for transport with energy system cost optimization applied to hydrogen in EU

Fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV) currently have the challenge of high CAPEX mainly associated to the fuel cell. This study investigates strategies to promote FCEV deployment and overcome this initial high cost by combining a detailed simulation model of the passenger transport sector with an energy system model. The focus is on an energy system with 95% CO2 reduction by 2050. Soft-linking by taking the powertrain shares by country from the simulation model is preferred because it considers aspects such as car performance, reliability and safety while keeping the cost optimization to evaluate the impact on the rest of the system. This caused a 14% increase in total cost of car ownership compared to the cost before soft-linking. Gas reforming combined with CO2 storage can provide a low-cost hydrogen source for FCEV in the first years of deployment. Once a lower CAPEX for FCEV is achieved, a higher hydrogen cost from electrolysis can be afforded. The policy with the largest impact on FCEV was a purchase subsidy of 5 k€ per vehicle in the 2030–2034 period resulting in 24.3 million FCEV (on top of 67 million without policy) sold up to 2050 with total subsidies of 84 bln€. 5 bln€ of R&D incentives in the 2020–2024 period increased the cumulative sales up to 2050 by 10.5 million FCEV. Combining these two policies with infrastructure and fuel subsidies for 2030–2034 can result in 76 million FCEV on the road by 2050 representing more than 25% of the total car stock. Country specific incentives, split of demand by distance or shift across modes of transport were not included in this study.JRC.C.7-Knowledge for the Energy Unio