Kicking the habit is hard: A hybrid choice model investigation into the role of addiction in smoking behavior

Use of choice models is growing rapidly in tobacco research. These models are being used to answer key policy questions. However, certain aspects of smokers' choice behavior are not well understood. One such feature is addiction. Here, we address this issue by modeling data from a choice experiment on the US smokers. We model addiction using a latent variable. We use this latent variable to understand the relationship between choices and addiction, giving attention to nicotine levels. We find that more addicted smokers have stronger preferences for cigarettes and are unwilling to switch to e‐cigarettes. Addicted smokers value nicotine in tobacco products to a much greater extent than those that are less addicted. Lastly, we forecast short‐term responses to lowering nicotine levels in cigarettes. The results suggest that current nicotine‐focused policies could be effective at encouraging addicted smokers to less harmful products and lead to substantial public health gains

Are there specific design elements of choice experiments and types of people that influence choice response certainty?

The development of more realistic choice experiments has taken on board a number of suggestions in the broader hypothetical bias literature. One issue, in particular, is the increasing interest in finding ways to bridge the gap between the stated choice response and real choosing, as a way of increasing the confidence with which an individual would hypothetically purchase or use an alternative that is actually chosen in the choice experiment. In this paper we investigate the relationship between the respondent's response to a certainty question, defined on a 1-10 scale of surety, and features of the choice experiment that may have a bearing on the degree of confidence that can be placed on the stated choice, controlling for exogenous effects such as socioeconomic characteristics and attitudes to vehicle emissions. The focus on response certainty in this paper is as an external validity test. We find, using a generalised ordered logit model, compelling evidence that the number of acceptable alternatives and hence associated levels of attributes, together with the contrast of attribute levels of each designed alternative relative to an experienced status quo (or reference) alternative, play an important role in establishing certainty of response in a real market. The evidence should be taken on board in the future design of more realistic choice experiments

Estimating the value of risk reduction for pedestrians in the road environment: An exploratory analysis

In recent years there has been a re-focus on the valuation of a statistical life from the ex post or human capital method to an ex ante willingness to pay (WTP) approach. This is in part a recognition that we need to focus on establishing the amount, ex ante, that individuals are willing to pay to reduce the risk of exposure to circumstances that might lead to death or degree of injury in the road environment. This study sets out a framework in which to identify the degree of preference heterogeneity in WTP of pedestrians to avoid being killed or injured. A stated choice experiment approach is developed. The empirical setting is a choice of walking route for a particular trip that a sample of pedestrians periodically undertakes in Australia. Mixed logit models are estimated to obtain the marginal (dis)utilities associated with each influence on the choice amongst the attribute packages offered in the stated choice scenarios. These conditional estimates are used to obtain the WTP distributions for fatality and classes of injury avoidance, which are then aggregated to obtain estimates for pedestrians of the value of risk reduction (VRR)

Modelling gender perception of quality in interurban bus services

This paper models how women and men perceive the quality of interurban bus services and proposes a new methodology for detecting the highest priority service variables to act on. Service quality perception was modelled using both ordered logit and ordered probit models using data from revealed preference surveys. The methodology for detecting different priority levels uses the graphic representation of the relationships between influence in the model and average evaluation by users. The modification of certain variables increases the knowledge of how woman evaluate quality in bus services to help promote the use of interurban public transport. Statistical analysis of the data provides some conclusions such as: the proportion of users increases as age decreases for both men and women; and women seem to make shorter and more frequent trips than men. The best model for this data set was ordered logit. As expected, the most relevant variable is the relationship between quality and price. Other important variables are the condition of the bus and the frequency of service

Quality of service in public transport based on customer satisfaction surveys: A review and assessment of methodological approaches

The growth of literature in the field of quality of service in the public transport (PT) sector shows increasing concern for a better understanding of the factors affecting service quality (SQ) in PT organizations and companies. A large variety of approaches to SQ has been developed in recent years owing to the complexity of the concept; the broad range of attributes required to evaluate SQ; and the imprecision, subjectivity and heterogeneous nature of the data used to analyse it. Most of these approaches are based on customer satisfaction surveys. This paper seeks to summarize the evolution of research and current thinking as it relates to the different methodological approaches for SQ evaluation in the PT sector over the years, and provides a discussion of future directions.This study is sponsored by the Conserjería de Innovación, Ciencia y Economía of the Junta de Andalucía (Spain) through the Excellence Research Project denominated “Q-METROBUS-Quality of service indicator for METROpolitan public BUS transport services”

Econometric Modelling: Extensions

AbstractThis chapter is devoted to advanced issues of econometric modelling. The topics covered are, among others, models in willingness to pay space, the meaning of scale heterogeneity in discrete choice models and the application of various information processing rules such as random regret minimisation or attribute non-attendance. Other topics are anchoring and learning effects when respondents move through a sequence of choice tasks as well as different information processing strategies such as lexicographic preferences or choices based on elimination-by-aspects

Influence of real-world characteristics on outcomes for patients with methicillin-resistant Staphylococcal skin and soft tissue infections:a multi-country medical chart review in Europe

BACKGROUND: Patient-related (demographic/disease) and treatment-related (drug/clinician/hospital) characteristics were evaluated as potential predictors of healthcare resource use and opportunities for early switch (ES) from intravenous (IV)-to-oral methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA)-active antibiotic therapy and early hospital discharge (ED). METHODS: This retrospective observational medical chart study analyzed patients (across 12 European countries) with microbiologically confirmed MRSA complicated skin and soft tissue infections (cSSTI), ≥3 days of IV anti-MRSA antibiotics during hospitalization (July 1, 2010-June 30, 2011), and discharged alive by July 31, 2011. Logistic/linear regression models evaluated characteristics potentially associated with actual resource use (length of IV therapy, length of hospital stay [LOS], IV-to-oral antibiotic switch), and ES and ED (using literature-based and expert-verified criteria) outcomes. RESULTS: 1542 patients (mean ± SD age 60.8 ± 16.5 years; 61.5% males) were assessed with 81.0% hospitalized for MRSA cSSTI as the primary reason. Several patient demographic, infection, complication, treatment, and hospital characteristics were predictive of length of IV therapy, LOS, IV-to-oral antibiotic switch, or ES and ED opportunities. Outcomes and ES and ED opportunities varied across countries. Length of IV therapy and LOS (r = 0.66, p < 0.0001) and eligibilities for ES and ED (r = 0.44, p < 0.0001) showed relatively strong correlations. IV-to-oral antibiotic switch patients had significantly shorter length of IV therapy (−5.19 days, p < 0.001) and non-significantly shorter LOS (−1.86 days, p > 0.05). Certain patient and treatment characteristics were associated with increased odds of ES (healthcare-associated/ hospital-acquired infection) and ED (patient living arrangements, healthcare-associated/ hospital-acquired infection, initiating MRSA-active treatment 1–2 days post cSSTI index date, existing ED protocol), while other factors decreased the odds of ES (no documented MRSA culture, ≥4 days from admission to cSSTI index date, IV-to-oral switch, IV line infection) and ED (dementia, no documented MRSA culture, initiating MRSA-active treatment ≥3 days post cSSTI index date, existing ES protocol). CONCLUSIONS: Practice patterns and opportunity for further ES and ED were affected by several infection, treatment, hospital, and geographical characteristics, which should be considered in identifying ES and ED opportunities and designing interventions for MRSA cSSTI to reduce IV days and LOS while maintaining the quality of care. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1471-2334-14-476) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

The Economic Value of Environmental Services on Indigenous-Held Lands in Australia

Australians could be willing to pay from $878m to$2b per year for Indigenous people to provide environmental services. This is up to 50 times the amount currently invested by government. This result was derived from a nationwide survey that included a choice experiment in which 70% of the 927 respondents were willing to contribute to a conservation fund that directly pays Indigenous people to carry out conservation activities. Of these the highest values were found for benefits that are likely to improve biodiversity outcomes, carbon emission reductions and improved recreational values. Of the activities that could be undertaken to provide the services, feral animal control attracted the highest level of support followed by coastal surveillance, weed control and fire management. Respondents' decisions to pay were not greatly influenced by the additional social benefits that can arise for Indigenous people spending time on country and providing the services, although there was approval for reduced welfare payments that might arise