Australian Economic Growth: Non-Linearities and Internaitonal Influences.

This paper considers the extent to which fluctuations in Australian economic growth are affected by domestic and overseas economic performance. We investigate the performance of a range of non-linear models versus linear models using Bayes factors and posterior odds ratios. The posterior odds ratios favour non-linear specifications in which fluctuations in economic activity in the US affect Australia's economic performance. Our results suggest that an exogenous negative shock will be more persistent, lead to greater output volatility, and have a greater impact on growth, than a positive shock of equal magnitude.ECONOMIC GROWTH ; BUSINESS CYCLES ; INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY

TESTING FOR ASYMMETRY IN INTEREST RATE VOLATILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF A NEGLECTED LEVEL EFFECT

Empirical evidence documents a level effect in the volatility of short term rates of interest. That is, volatility is positively correlated with the level of the short term interest rate. Using Monte-Carlo simulations this paper examines the performance of the commonly used Engle-Ng (1993) tests which differentiate the effect of good and bad news on the predictability of future short rate volatility. Our results show that the tests exhibit serious size distortions and loss of power in the face of a neglected level effect.Level Effects; Asymmetry; Engle-Ng Tests

The effect of asymmetries on optimal hedge ratios

There is widespread evidence that the volatility of stock returns displays an asymmetric response to good and bad news. This article considers the impact of asymmetry on time-varying hedges for financial futures. An asymmetric model that allows forecasts of cash and futures return volatility to respond differently to positive and negative return innovations gives superior in-sample hedging performance. However, the simpler symmetric model is not inferior in a hold-out sample. A method for evaluating the models in a modern risk-management framework is presented, highlighting the importance of allowing optimal hedge ratios to be both time-varying and asymmetric

Changes in Serum Electrolytes, Urea, and Creatinine in Aloe Vera-treated Rats

This study was carried out to investigate the effect of Aloe vera extract (AvE) on serum electrolytes, urea, and creatinine as indices of renal function in Sprague-Dawley rats. Twelve male Sprague-Dawley rats weighing between 80 and 130 g were used. Rats were divided into two groups: The control and the test groups (n=6). The test group received 1 ml of AvE daily for 28 days. Both the groups fed on standard rat chow and water ad libitum. The results showed a decrease in serum levels of sodium, and potassium, but an increase in the serum levels of bicarbonate, urea, and creatinine in the test group. The changes seen were, however, statistically insignificant, except for the serum levels of sodium and creatinine (P<0.05). It is thus concluded that AvE impairs renal handling of electrolytes with consequent hyponatremia and hypercreatinemia. However, this might be of therapeutic value in conditions associated with hypernatremia

1000 Genomes-based metaanalysis identifies 10 novel loci for kidney function

HapMap imputed genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have revealed >50 loci at which common variants with minor allele frequency >5% are associated with kidney function. GWAS using more complete reference sets for imputation, such as those from The 1000 Genomes project, promise to identify novel loci that have been missed by previous efforts. To investigate the value of such a more complete variant catalog, we conducted a GWAS meta-Analysis of kidney function based on the estimated glomerular filtration rate (EGFR) in 110,517 European ancestry participants using 1000 Genomes imputed data. We identified 10 novel loci with p-value < 5 × 10-8 previously missed by HapMap-based GWAS. Six of these loci (HOXD8, ARL15, PIK3R1, EYA4, ASTN2, and EPB41L3) are tagged by common SNPs unique to the 1000 Genomes reference panel. Using pathway analysis, we identified 39 significant (FDR < 0.05) genes and 127 significantly (FDR < 0.05) enriched gene sets, wh