The determinants of election to the United Nations Security Council

This is the author's accepted manuscript. The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11127-013-0096-4.The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) is the foremost international body responsible for the maintenance of international peace and security. Members vote on issues of global importance and consequently receive perks—election to the UNSC predicts, for instance, World Bank and IMF loans. But who gets elected to the UNSC? Addressing this question empirically is not straightforward as it requires a model that allows for discrete choices at the regional and international levels; the former nominates candidates while the latter ratifies them. Using an original multiple discrete choice model to analyze a dataset of 180 elections from 1970 to 2005, we find that UNSC election appears to derive from a compromise between the demands of populous countries to win election more frequently and a norm of giving each country its turn. We also find evidence that richer countries from the developing world win election more often, while involvement in warfare lowers election probability. By contrast, development aid does not predict election

The total mass of the Large Magellanic Cloud from its perturbation on the Orphan stream

In a companion paper by Koposov et al., RR Lyrae from \textit{Gaia} Data Release 2 are used to demonstrate that stars in the Orphan stream have velocity vectors significantly misaligned with the stream track, suggesting that it has received a large gravitational perturbation from a satellite of the Milky Way. We argue that such a mismatch cannot arise due to any realistic static Milky Way potential and then explore the perturbative effects of the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). We find that the LMC can produce precisely the observed motion-track mismatch and we therefore use the Orphan stream to measure the mass of the Cloud. We simultaneously fit the Milky Way and LMC potentials and infer that a total LMC mass of $1.38^{+0.27}_{-0.24} \times10^{11}\,\rm{M_\odot}$ is required to bend the Orphan Stream, showing for the first time that the LMC has a large and measurable effect on structures orbiting the Milky Way. This has far-reaching consequences for any technique which assumes that tracers are orbiting a static Milky Way. Furthermore, we measure the Milky Way mass within 50 kpc to be $3.80^{+0.14}_{-0.11}\times10^{11} M_\odot$. Finally, we use these results to predict that, due to the reflex motion of the Milky Way in response to the LMC, the outskirts of the Milky Way's stellar halo should exhibit a bulk, upwards motion.Comment: 17 pages, 11 figures. Updated to version accepted to MNRAS after minor revisio

The Functional −765G→C Polymorphism of the COX-2 Gene May Reduce the Risk of Developing Crohn's Disease

Contains fulltext : 87827.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access)BACKGROUND: Cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) is a key enzyme involved in the conversion of arachidonic acid into prostaglandins. COX-2 is mainly induced at sites of inflammation in response to proinflammatory cytokines such as interleukin-1alpha/beta, interferon-gamma and tumor necrosis factor-alpha produced by inflammatory cells. AIM: The aim of this study was to investigate the possible modulating effect of the functional COX-2 polymorphisms -1195 A-->G and -765G-->C on the risk for development of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) in a Dutch population. METHODS: Genomic DNA of 525 patients with Crohn's disease (CD), 211 patients with ulcerative colitis (UC) and 973 healthy controls was genotyped for the -1195 A-->G (rs689466) and -765G-->C (rs20417) polymorphisms. Distribution of genotypes in patients and controls were compared and genotype-phenotype interactions were investigated. RESULTS: The genotype distribution of the -1195A-->G polymorphism was not different between the patients with CD or UC and the control group. The -765GG genotype was more prevalent in CD patients compared to controls with an OR of 1.33 (95%CI 1.04-1.69, pC polymorphism was associated with a reduced risk for developing Crohn's disease in a Dutch population

Piercing the Milky Way: an all-sky view of the Orphan Stream

We use astrometry, broad-band photometry, and variability information from the Data Release 2 of ESA’s Gaia mission (GDR2) to identify members of the Orphan Stream (OS) across the whole sky. The stream is traced above and below the celestial equator and in both Galactic hemispheres, thus increasing its visible length to ∼210° equivalent to ∼150 kpc in physical extent. Taking advantage of the large number of RR Lyrae stars in the OS, we extract accurate distances and proper motions across the entire stretch of the tidal debris studied. As delineated by the GDR2 RR Lyrae, the stream exhibits two prominent twists in its shape on the sky which are accompanied by changes in the tangential motion. We complement the RR Lyrae maps with those created using GDR2 Red Giants and the DECam Legacy Survey Main Sequence Turn-Off stars. The behaviour of the OS track on the sky is consistent across all three tracers employed. We detect a strong non-zero motion in the across-stream direction for a substantial portion of the stream. Such a misalignment between the debris track and the streaming velocity cannot be reproduced in a static gravitational potential and signals an interaction with a massive perturber

Radionuclide Imaging of Viable Myocardium: Is it Underutilized?

Coronary artery disease is the major cause of heart failure in North America. Viability assessment is important as it aims to identify patients who stand to benefit from coronary revascularization. Radionuclide modalities currently used in the assessment of viability include 201Tl SPECT, 99mTc-based SPECT imaging, and 18F-fluorodexoyglucose (18F-FDG)-PET imaging. Different advances have been made in the last year to improve the sensitivity and specificity of these modalities. In addition, the optimum amount of viable (yet dysfunctional) myocardium is important to identify in patients, as a risk–benefit ratio must be considered. Patients with predominantly viable/hibernating myocardium can benefit from revascularization from a mortality and morbidity standpoint. However, in patients with minimal viability (predominantly scarred myocardium), revascularization risk may certainly be too high to justify revascularization without expected benefit. Understanding different radionuclide modalities and new developments in the assessment of viability in ischemic heart failure patients is the focus of this discussion

Faster HIV-1 Disease Progression among Brazilian Individuals Recently Infected with CXCR4-Utilizing Strains

Introduction: Primary HIV infection is usually caused by R5 viruses, and there is an association between the emergence of CCXR4-utilizing strains and faster disease progression. We characterized HIV-1 from a cohort of recently infected individuals in Brazil, predicted the virus's co-receptor use based on the env genotype and attempted to correlate virus profiles with disease progression. Methods: A total of 72 recently infected HIV patients were recruited based on the Serologic Testing Algorithm for Recent HIV Seroconversion and were followed every three to four months for up to 78 weeks. The HIV-1 V3 region was characterized by sequencing nine to twelve weeks after enrollment. Disease progression was characterized by CD4+ T-cell count decline to levels consistently below 350 cells/mu L. Results: Twelve out of 72 individuals (17%) were predicted to harbor CXCR4-utilizing strains; a baseline CD4,350 was more frequent among these individuals (p = 0.03). Fifty-seven individuals that were predicted to have CCR5-utilizing viruses and 10 individuals having CXCR4-utilizing strains presented with baseline CD4.350; after 78 weeks, 33 individuals with CCR5 strains and one individual with CXCR4 strains had CD4.350 (p = 0.001). There was no association between CD4 decline and demographic characteristics or HIV-1 subtype. Conclusions: Our findings confirm the presence of strains with higher in vitro pathogenicity during early HIV infection, suggesting that even among recently infected individuals, rapid progression may be a consequence of the early emergence of CXCR4-utilizing strains. Characterizing the HIV-1 V3 region by sequencing may be useful in predicting disease progression and guiding treatment initiation decisions.Brazilian Program for STD and AIDSBrazilian Program for STD and AIDSMinistry of Health [914/BRA/3014-UNESCO/Kallas]Ministry of HealthSao Paulo City Health DepartmentSao Paulo City Health Department [2004-0.168.922-7/Kallas]Fundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Sao PauloFundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Sao Paulo [04/15856-9/Diaz]Coordenacao de Aperfeicoamento de Pessoal de Nivel Superior (CAPES)Coordenacao de Aperfeicoamento de Pessoal de Nivel Superior (CAPES)Brazilian Ministry of EducationBrazilian Ministry of Educatio

Resting Regulatory CD4 T Cells: A Site of HIV Persistence in Patients on Long-Term Effective Antiretroviral Therapy

BACKGROUND: In HIV-infected patients on long-term HAART, virus persistence in resting long-lived CD4 T cells is a major barrier to curing the infection. Cell quiescence, by favouring HIV latency, reduces the risk of recognition and cell destruction by cytotoxic lymphocytes. Several cell-activation-based approaches have been proposed to disrupt cell quiescence and then virus latency, but these approaches have not eradicated the virus. CD4+CD25+ regulatory T cells (Tregs) are a CD4+ T-cell subset with particular activation properties. We investigated the role of these cells in virus persistence in patients on long-term HAART. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We found evidence of infection of resting Tregs (HLADR(-)CD69(-)CD25(hi)FoxP3+CD4+ T cells) purified from patients on prolonged HAART. HIV DNA harbouring cells appear more abundant in the Treg subset than in non-Tregs. The half-life of the Treg reservoir was estimated at 20 months. Since Tregs from patients on prolonged HAART showed hyporesponsiveness to cell activation and inhibition of HIV-specific cytotoxic T lymphocyte-related functions upon activation, therapeutics targeting cell quiescence to induce virus expression may not be appropriate for purging the Treg reservoir. CONCLUSIONS: Our results identify Tregs as a particular compartment within the latent reservoir that may require a specific approach for its purging