Short-term climate response to a freshwater pulse in the Southern Ocean

The short-term response of the climate system to a freshwater anomaly in the Southern Ocean is investigated using a coupled global climate model. As a result of the anomaly, ventilation of deep waters around Antarctica is inhibited, causing a warming of the deep ocean, and a cooling of the surface. The surface cooling causes Antarctic sea-ice to thicken and increase in extent, and this leads to a cooling of Southern Hemisphere surface air temperature. The surface cooling increases over the first 5 years, then remains constant over the next 5 years. There is a more rapid response in the Pacific Ocean, which transmits a signal to the Northern Hemisphere, ultimately causing a shift to the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation in years 5–10

Including Systematic Uncertainties in Confidence Interval Construction for Poisson Statistics

One way to incorporate systematic uncertainties into the calculation of confidence intervals is by integrating over probability density functions parametrizing the uncertainties. In this note we present a development of this method which takes into account uncertainties in the prediction of background processes, uncertainties in the signal detection efficiency and background efficiency and allows for a correlation between the signal and background detection efficiencies. We implement this method with the Feldman & Cousins unified approach with and without conditioning. We present studies of coverage for the Feldman & Cousins and Neyman ordering schemes. In particular, we present two different types of coverage tests for the case where systematic uncertainties are included. To illustrate the method we show the relative effect of including systematic uncertainties the case of dark matter search as performed by modern neutrino tel escopes.Comment: 23 pages, 10 figures, replaced to match published versio

Best Practices for Health Informatician Involvement in Interprofessional Health Care Teams

Academic and nonacademic health informatics (HI) professionals (informaticians) serve on interprofessional health care teams with other professionals, such as physicians, nurses, pharmacists, dentists, and nutritionists. Presently, we argue for investing greater attention to the role health informaticians play on interprofessional teams and the best practices to support this role

Will high-resolution global ocean models benefit coupled predictions on short-range to climate timescales?

As the importance of the ocean in the weather and climate system is increasingly recognised, operational systems are now moving towards coupled prediction not only for seasonal to climate timescales but also for short-range forecasts. A three-way tension exists between the allocation of computing resources to refine model resolution, the expansion of model complexity/capability, and the increase of ensemble size. Here we review evidence for the benefits of increased ocean resolution in global coupled models, where the ocean component explicitly represents transient mesoscale eddies and narrow boundary currents. We consider lessons learned from forced ocean/sea-ice simulations; from studies concerning the SST resolution required to impact atmospheric simulations; and from coupled predictions. Impacts of the mesoscale ocean in western boundary current regions on the large-scale atmospheric state have been identified. Understanding of air-sea feedback in western boundary currents is modifying our view of the dynamics in these key regions. It remains unclear whether variability associated with open ocean mesoscale eddies is equally important to the large-scale atmospheric state. We include a discussion of what processes can presently be parameterised in coupled models with coarse resolution non-eddying ocean models, and where parameterizations may fall short. We discuss the benefits of resolution and identify gaps in the current literature that leave important questions unanswered

A systematic review of repetitive task training with modelling of resource use, costs and effectiveness

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether repetitive functional task practice (RFTP) after stroke improves limb-specific or global function or activities of daily living and whether treatment effects are dependent on the amount of practice, or the type or timing of the intervention. Also to provide estimates of the cost-effectiveness of RFTP. DATA SOURCES: The main electronic databases were searched from inception to week 4, September 2006. Searches were also carried out on non-English-language databases and for unpublished trials up to May 2006. REVIEW METHODS: Standard quantitative methods were used to conduct the systematic review. The measures of efficacy of RFTP from the data synthesis were used to inform an economic model. The model used a pre-existing data set and tested the potential impact of RFTP on cost. An incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained for RFTP was estimated from the model. Sensitivity analyses around the assumptions made for the model were used to test the robustness of the estimates. RESULTS: Thirty-one trials with 34 intervention-control pairs and 1078 participants were included. Overall, it was found that some forms of RFTP resulted in improvement in global function, and in both arm and lower limb function. Overall standardised mean difference in data suitable for pooling was 0.38 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.09 to 0.68] for global motor function, 0.24 (95% CI 0.06 to 0.42) for arm function and 0.28 (95% CI 0.05 to 0.51) for functional ambulation. Results suggest that training may be sufficient to have an impact on activities of daily living. Retention effects of training persist for up to 6 months, but whether they persist beyond this is unclear. There was little or no evidence that treatment effects overall were modified by time since stroke or dosage of task practice, but results for upper limb function were modified by type of intervention. The economic modelling suggested that RFTP was cost-effective. Given a threshold for cost-effectiveness of 20,000 pounds per QALY gained, RFTP is cost-effective so long as the net cost per patient is less than 1963 pounds. This result showed some sensitivity to the assumptions made for the model. The cost-effectiveness of RFTP tends to stem from the relatively modest cost associated with this intervention. CONCLUSIONS: The evidence suggests that some form of RFTP can be effective in improving lower limb function at any time after stroke, but that the duration of intervention effect is unclear. There is as yet insufficient good-quality evidence to make any firm recommendations for upper limb interventions. If task-specific training is used, adverse effects should be monitored. While the effectiveness of RFTP is relatively modest, this sort of intervention appears to be cost-effective. Owing to the large number of ongoing trials, this review should be updated within 2 years and any future review should include a comparison against alternative treatments. Further research should evaluate RFTP upper limb interventions and in particular constraint-induced movement therapy, address practical ways of delivering RFTP interventions, be directed towards the evaluation of suitable methods to maintain functional gain, and be powered to detect whether RFTP interventions are cost-effective

Mitochondrial DNA Copy Number Is Associated with Breast Cancer Risk

Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) copy number in peripheral blood is associated with increased risk of several cancers. However, data from prospective studies on mtDNA copy number and breast cancer risk are lacking. We evaluated the association between mtDNA copy number in peripheral blood and breast cancer risk in a nested case-control study of 183 breast cancer cases with pre-diagnostic blood samples and 529 individually matched controls among participants of the Singapore Chinese Health Study. The mtDNA copy number was measured using real time PCR. Conditional logistic regression analyses showed that there was an overall positive association between mtDNA copy number and breast cancer risk (Ptrend = 0.01). The elevated risk for higher mtDNA copy numbers was primarily seen for women with <3 years between blood draw and cancer diagnosis; ORs (95% CIs) for 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th quintile of mtDNA copy number were 1.52 (0.61, 3.82), 2.52 (1.03, 6.12), 3.12 (1.31, 7.43), and 3.06 (1.25, 7.47), respectively, compared with the 1st quintile (Ptrend = 0.004). There was no association between mtDNA copy number and breast cancer risk among women who donated a blood sample ≥3 years before breast cancer diagnosis (Ptrend = 0.41). This study supports a prospective association between increased mtDNA copy number and breast cancer risk that is dependent on the time interval between blood collection and breast cancer diagnosis. Future studies are warranted to confirm these findings and to elucidate the biological role of mtDNA copy number in breast cancer risk. © 2013 Thyagarajan et al

Muon-anti-neutrino <---> electron-anti-neutrino mixing: analysis of recent indications and implications for neutrino oscillation phenomenology

We reanalyze the recent data from the Liquid Scintillator Neutrino Detector (LSND) experiment, that might indicate anti-nu_muanti-nu_e mixing. This indication is not completely excluded by the negative results of established accelerator and reactor neutrino oscillation searches. We quantify the region of compatibility by means of a thorough statistical analysis of all the available data, assuming both two-flavor and three-flavor neutrino oscillations. The implications for various theoretical scenarios and for future oscillation searches are studied. The relaxation of the LSND constraints under different assumptions in the statistical analysis is also investigated.Comment: 17 pages (RevTeX) + 9 figures (Postscript) included with epsfig.st

Pre-treatment of blood samples reveal normal blood hypocretin/orexin signal in narcolepsy type 1

The hypocretin/orexin system regulates arousal through central nervous system mechanisms and plays an important role in sleep, wakefulness and energy homeostasis. It is unclear whether hypocretin peptides are also present in blood due to difficulties in measuring reliable and reproducible levels of the peptides in blood samples. Lack of hypocretin signalling causes the sleep disorder narcolepsy type 1, and low concentration of cerebrospinal fluid hypocretin-l/oreadn-A peptide is a hallmark of the disease. This measurement has high diagnostic value, but performing a lumbar puncture is not without discomfort and possible complications for the patient. A blood-based test to assess hypocretin-1 deficiency would therefore be of obvious benefit. We here demonstrate that heating plasma or scrum samples to 65 degrees C for 30 min at pH 8 significantly increases hypocretin-1 immunoreactivity enabling stable and reproducible measurement of hypocretin-1 in blood samples. Specificity of the signal was verified by high-performance liquid chromatography and by measuring blood samples from mice lacking hypocretin. Unspecific background signal in the assay was high. Using our method, we show that hypocretin-1 immunoreactivity in blood samples from narcolepsy type 1 patients does not differ from the levels detected in control samples. The data presented here suggest that hypocretin-1 is present in the blood stream in the low picograms per millilitres range and that peripheral hypocretin-1 concentrations are unchanged in narcolepsy type 1

Update of the Search for the Neutrinoless Decay τ→μγ\tau\to \mu\gamma

We present an update of the search for the lepton family number violating decay $\tau \to \mu\gamma$ using a complete CLEO II data sample of 12.6 million $\tau^+\tau^-$ pairs. No evidence of a signal has been found and the corresponding upper limit is \BR(\tau \to \mu\gamma) < 1.0 \times 10^{-6} at 90% CL, significantly smaller than previous limits. All quoted results are preliminary.Comment: 9 pages postscript, also available through http://w4.lns.cornell.edu/public/CLN