Balancing control and autonomy in master surgery scheduling: benefits of ICU quotas for recovery units

When scheduling surgeries in the operating theater, not only the resources within the operating theater have to be considered but also those in downstream units, e.g., the intensive care unit and regular bed wards of each medical specialty. We present an extension to the master surgery schedule, where the capacity for surgeries on ICU patients is controlled by introducing downstream-dependent block types – one for both ICU and ward patients and one where surgeries on ICU patients must not be performed. The goal is to provide better control over post-surgery patient flows through the hospital while preserving each medical specialty’s autonomy over its operational surgery scheduling. We propose a mixed-integer program to determine the allocation of the new block types within either a given or a new master surgery schedule to minimize the maximum workload in downstream units. Using a simulation model supported by seven years of data from the University Hospital Augsburg, we show that the maximum workload in the intensive care unit can be reduced by up to 11.22% with our approach while maintaining the existing master surgery schedule. We also show that our approach can achieve up to 79.85% of the maximum workload reduction in the intensive care unit that would result from a fully centralized approach. We analyze various hospital setting instances to show the generalizability of our results. Furthermore, we provide insights and data analysis from the implementation of a quota system at the University Hospital Augsburg. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10729-021-09588-8

A scalable forecasting framework to predict COVID-19 hospital bed occupancy

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has led to capacity problems in many hospitals around the world. During the peak of new infections in Germany in April 2020 and October to December 2020, most hospitals had to cancel elective procedures for patients because of capacity shortages. We present a scalable forecasting framework with a Monte Carlo simulation to forecast the short-term bed occupancy of patients with confirmed and suspected COVID-19 in intensive care units and regular wards. We apply the simulation to different granularity and geographical levels. Our forecasts were a central part of the official weekly reports of the Bavarian State Ministry of Health and Care, which were sent to key decision makers in the individual ambulance districts from May 2020 to March 2021. Our evaluation shows that the forecasting framework delivers accurate forecasts despite data availability and quality issues

Associations of frailty with health care costs – results of the ESTHER cohort study

Background: The concept of frailty is rapidly gaining attention as an independent syndrome with high prevalence in older adults. Thereby, frailty is often related to certain adverse outcomes like mortality or disability. Another adverse outcome discussed is increased health care utilization. However, only few studies examined the impact of frailty on health care utilization and corresponding costs. The aim of this study was therefore to investigate comprehensively the relationship between frailty, health care utilization and costs. Methods: Cross sectional data from 2598 older participants (57–84 years) recruited in the Saarland, Germany, between 2008 and 2010 was used. Participants passed geriatric assessments that included Fried’s five frailty criteria: weakness, slowness, exhaustion, unintentional weight loss, and physical inactivity. Health care utilization was recorded in the sectors of inpatient treatment, outpatient treatment, pharmaceuticals, and nursing care. Results: Prevalence of frailty (≥3 symptoms) was 8.0 %. Mean total 3-month costs of frail participants were €3659 (4 or 5 symptoms) and €1616 (3 symptoms) as compared to €642 of nonfrail participants (no symptom). Controlling for comorbidity and general socio-demographic characteristics in multiple regression models, the difference in total costs between frail and non-frail participants still amounted to €1917; p < .05 (4 or 5 symptoms) and €680; p < .05 (3 symptoms). Among the 5 symptoms of frailty, weight loss and exhaustion were significantly associated with total costs after controlling for comorbidity. Conclusions: The study provides evidence that frailty is associated with increased health care costs. The analyses furthermore indicate that frailty is an important factor for health care costs independent from pure age and comorbidity. Costs were rather attributable to frailty (and comorbidity) than to age. This stresses that the overlapping concepts of multimorbidity and frailty are both necessary to explain health care use and corresponding costs among older adults

Phase II Trial with Carboplatin and Bendamustine in Patients with Extensive Stage Small-Cell Lung Cancer

Background:Bendamustine is an alkylating agent with hybrid activity and proven efficacy in small-cell lung cancer associated with a favorable toxicity rate. This phase II study of carboplatin/bendamustine was conducted to evaluate the efficacy of this combination in patients with extensive disease small-cell lung cancer (ED-SCLC).Methods:Fifty-six untreated patients with ED-SCLC were enrolled. Their median age was 63 years. Sixty-seven percent of patients were male and 18% had a World Health Organization performance status of 2. Bendamustine was administered as a 30- to 60-minute infusion at a dose of 80 mg/m2 on days 1 and 2, and carboplatin was given at an area under the curve of 5 on day 1 of a 21-day cycle.Results:Fifty-five patients were assessable for response and toxicity. The overall response rate was 72.7% (95% confidence interval: 59%–84%), with one complete remission (1.8%). The median time to progression was 5.2 months (95% confidence interval: 4.2–5.6). At the time of evaluation, 71% of the patients had died. The median survival time reached 8.3 months (95% confidence interval: 6.6–9.9). The major toxicity of this regimen was myelosuppression, including grade 3 or 4 neutropenia (46%), thrombopenia (26%), anemia (15%), and infections (11%). Toxic death was recorded in two patients (3.6%).Conclusions:The carboplatin/bendamustine regimen is a well-tolerated cytostatic combination in ED-SCLC with activity comparable with that of other platinum-based regimens. Further investigations, such as a phase III trial, are currently planned

Improved Bevirimat resistance prediction by combination of structural and sequence-based classifiers

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Maturation inhibitors such as Bevirimat are a new class of antiretroviral drugs that hamper the cleavage of HIV-1 proteins into their functional active forms. They bind to these preproteins and inhibit their cleavage by the HIV-1 protease, resulting in non-functional virus particles. Nevertheless, there exist mutations in this region leading to resistance against Bevirimat. Highly specific and accurate tools to predict resistance to maturation inhibitors can help to identify patients, who might benefit from the usage of these new drugs.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We tested several methods to improve Bevirimat resistance prediction in HIV-1. It turned out that combining structural and sequence-based information in classifier ensembles led to accurate and reliable predictions. Moreover, we were able to identify the most crucial regions for Bevirimat resistance computationally, which are in line with experimental results from other studies.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our analysis demonstrated the use of machine learning techniques to predict HIV-1 resistance against maturation inhibitors such as Bevirimat. New maturation inhibitors are already under development and might enlarge the arsenal of antiretroviral drugs in the future. Thus, accurate prediction tools are very useful to enable a personalized therapy.</p

Machine learning on normalized protein sequences

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Machine learning techniques have been widely applied to biological sequences, e.g. to predict drug resistance in HIV-1 from sequences of drug target proteins and protein functional classes. As deletions and insertions are frequent in biological sequences, a major limitation of current methods is the inability to handle varying sequence lengths.</p> <p>Findings</p> <p>We propose to normalize sequences to uniform length. To this end, we tested one linear and four different non-linear interpolation methods for the normalization of sequence lengths of 19 classification datasets. Classification tasks included prediction of HIV-1 drug resistance from drug target sequences and sequence-based prediction of protein function. We applied random forests to the classification of sequences into "positive" and "negative" samples. Statistical tests showed that the linear interpolation outperforms the non-linear interpolation methods in most of the analyzed datasets, while in a few cases non-linear methods had a small but significant advantage. Compared to other published methods, our prediction scheme leads to an improvement in prediction accuracy by up to 14%.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We found that machine learning on sequences normalized by simple linear interpolation gave better or at least competitive results compared to state-of-the-art procedures, and thus, is a promising alternative to existing methods, especially for protein sequences of variable length.</p

Lack of association between right-to-left shunt and cerebral ischemia after adjustment for gender and age

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>A number of studies has addressed the possible association between patent foramen ovale (PFO) and stroke. However, the role of PFO in the pathogenesis of cerebral ischemia has remained controversial and most studies did not analyze patient subgroups stratified for gender, age and origin of stroke.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>To address the role of PFO for the occurrence of cerebral ischemia, we investigated the prevalence of right-to-left shunt in a large group of patients with acute stroke or TIA. 763 consecutive patients admitted to our hospital with cerebral ischemia were analyzed. All patients were screened for the presence of PFO by contrast-enhanced transcranial Doppler sonography at rest and during Valsalva maneuver. Subgroup analyses were performed in patients stratified for gender, age and origin of stroke.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A right-to-left shunt was detected in 140 (28%) male and in 114 (42%) female patients during Valsalva maneuver, and in 66 (13%) and 44 (16%) at rest respectively. Patients with right-to-left shunt were younger than those without (<it>P </it>< 0.001). PFO was associated with stroke of unknown origin in male (<it>P </it>= 0.001) but not female patients (<it>P </it>> 0.05). After adjusting for age no significant association between PFO and stroke of unknown origin was found in either group.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our findings argue against paradoxical embolization as a major cause of cerebral ischemia in patients with right-to-left shunt. Our data demonstrate substantial gender-and age-related differences that should be taken into account in future studies.</p