The effect of clustering on lot quality assurance sampling: a probabilistic model to calculate sample sizes for quality assessments

Background: Traditional Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS) designs assume observations are collected using simple random sampling. Alternatively, randomly sampling clusters of observations and then individuals within clusters reduces costs but decreases the precision of the classifications. In this paper, we develop a general framework for designing the cluster(C)-LQAS system and illustrate the method with the design of data quality assessments for the community health worker program in Rwanda. Results: To determine sample size and decision rules for C-LQAS, we use the beta-binomial distribution to account for inflated risk of errors introduced by sampling clusters at the first stage. We present general theory and code for sample size calculations. The C-LQAS sample sizes provided in this paper constrain misclassification risks below user-specified limits. Multiple C-LQAS systems meet the specified risk requirements, but numerous considerations, including per-cluster versus per-individual sampling costs, help identify optimal systems for distinct applications. Conclusions: We show the utility of C-LQAS for data quality assessments, but the method generalizes to numerous applications. This paper provides the necessary technical detail and supplemental code to support the design of C-LQAS for specific programs

How to estimate health service coverage in 58 districts of Benin with no survey data: Using hybrid estimation to fill the gaps

The global movement to use routine information for managing health systems to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals, relies on administrative data which have inherent biases when used to estimate coverage with health services. Health policies and interventions planned with incorrect information can have detrimental impacts on communities. Statistical inferences using administrative data can be improved when they are combined with random probability survey data. Sometimes, survey data are only available for some districts. We present new methods for extending combined estimation techniques to all districts by combining additional data sources. Our study uses data from a probability survey (n = 1786) conducted during 2015 in 19 of Benin’s 77 communes and administrative count data from all of them for a national immunization day (n = 2,792,803). Communes are equivalent to districts. We extend combined-data estimation from 19 to 77 communes by estimating denominators using the survey data and then building a statistical model using population estimates from different sources to estimate denominators in adjacent districts. By dividing administrative numerators by the model-estimated denominators we obtain extrapolated hybrid prevalence estimates. Framing the problem in the Bayesian paradigm guarantees estimated prevalence rates fall within the appropriate ranges and conveniently incorporates a sensitivity analysis. Our new methodology, estimated Benin’s polio vaccination rates for 77 communes. We leveraged probability survey data from 19 communes to formulate estimates for the 58 communes with administrative data alone; polio vaccination coverage estimates in the 58 communes decreased to ranges consistent with those from the probability surveys (87%, standard deviation = 0.09) and more credible than the administrative estimates. Combining probability survey and administrative data can be extended beyond the districts in which both are collected to estimate coverage in an entire catchment area. These more accurate results will better inform health policy-making and intervention planning to reduce waste and improve health in communities

Determinants of fertility in Rwanda in the context of a fertility transition: a secondary analysis of the 2010 Demographic and Health Survey

Background: Major improvements to Rwanda’s health system, infrastructure, and social programs over the last decade have led to a rapid fertility transition unique from other African countries. The total fertility rate fell from 6.1 in 2005 to 4.6 in 2010, with a 3-fold increase in contraceptive usage. Despite this rapid national decline, many women still have large numbers of children. This study investigates predictors of fertility during this fertility transition to inform policies that improve individuals’ reproductive health and guide national development. Methods: We used Poisson regression to separately model number of children born to ever married/cohabitated women (n = 8,309) and never married women (n = 1,220) age 15 to 49 based on 2010 Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey data. We used backward stepwise regression with a time offset to identify individual and household factors associated with woman’s fertility level, accounting for sampling weights, clustering, and stratification. Results: In ever married/cohabitating women, high fertility was significantly associated (p < 0.05) with the following variables: unmet need for contraception (IRR = 1.07), women’s desire for children (5+ versus 0–2 children: IRR = 1.22), woman’s number of siblings (8–20 versus 0–4: IRR = 1.03), and couples who desired different numbers of children (husband wants more: IRR = 1.04; husband wants fewer: IRR = 1.04). Low fertility in ever married/cohabitating women was associated with women’s education (higher versus no education: IRR = 0.66), household wealth (highest versus lowest quintile: IRR = 0.93), and delayed sexual debut (25+ versus 8–18 years: IRR = 0.49). In never married women, low fertility was associated with education (higher versus no education: IRR = 0.22), household wealth (highest versus lowest quintile: IRR = 0.58), delayed sexual debut (25–49 versus 8–18 years: IRR = 0.43), and having an unmet need for contraception (IRR = 0.69). Conclusions: Although the study design does not allow causal conclusions, these results suggest several strategies to further reduce Rwanda’s national fertility rate and support families to achieve their desired fertility. Strategies include policies and programs that promote delayed sexual debut via educational and economic opportunities for women, improved access to reproductive health information and services at schools and via health campaigns, and involvement of men in family planning decision making

Exposure to genocide and risk of suicide in Rwanda: a population-based case–control study

Background: In Rwanda, an estimated one million people were killed during the 1994 genocide, leaving the country shattered and social fabric destroyed. Large-scale traumatic events such as wars and genocides have been linked to endemic post-traumatic stress disorder, depression and suicidality. The study objective was to investigate whether the 1994 genocide exposure is associated with suicide in Rwanda. Methods: We conducted a population-based case–control study. Suicide victims were matched to three living controls for sex, age and residential location. Exposure was defined as being a genocide survivor, having suffered physical/sexual abuse in the genocide, losing a first-degree relative in the genocide, having been convicted for genocide crimes or having a first-degree relative convicted for genocide. From May 2011 to May 2013, 162 cases and 486 controls were enrolled countrywide. Information was collected from the police, local village administrators and family members. Results: After adjusting for potential confounders, having been convicted for genocide crimes was a significant predictor for suicide (OR=17.3, 95% CI 3.4 to 88.1). Being a survivor, having been physically or sexually abused during the genocide, and having lost a first-degree family member to genocide were not significantly associated with suicide. Conclusions: These findings demonstrate that individuals convicted for genocide crimes are experiencing continued psychological disturbances that affect their social reintegration into the community even 20 years after the event. Given the large number of genocide perpetrators reintegrated after criminal courts and Gacaca traditional reconciling trials, suicide could become a serious public health burden if preventive remedial action is not identified

Socioeconomics and major disabilities: characteristics of working-age adults in Rwanda

BACKGROUND:Disability affects approximately 15% of the world's population, and has adverse socio-economic effects, especially for the poor. In Rwanda, there are a number of government compensation programs that support the poor, but not specifically persons with disability (PWDs). This study investigates the relationship between poverty and government compensation on disability among working-age adults in Rwanda.METHODS:This was a secondary analysis of 35,114 adults aged 16 to 65 interviewed in the 2010/2011 Rwanda Household Wealth and Living Conditions survey, a national cross-sectional two-stage cluster survey, stratified by district. This study estimated self-reported major disability, and used chi-square tests to estimate associations (p&lt;0.1) with income, government compensation, occupation type, participation in public works programs, and household poverty status. Non-collinear economic variables were included in a multivariate logistic regression, along with socio-demographic confounders that modified the relationship between any economic predictor and the outcome by 10% or more. All analyses adjusted for sampling weights, stratification, and clustering of households.RESULTS:Over 4% of working-age adults reported having a major disability and the most prevalent types of disability in order were physical, mental, and then sensory disability. In bivariate analysis, annual income, occupation type, and poverty status were associated with major disability (p&lt;0.001 for all). Occupation type was dropped because it was collinear with income. Age, education, and urban/rural residence were confounders. In the multivariate analysis, adults in all income groups had about half the odds of disability compared to adults with no income (Rwf1-120,000 OR = 0.57; Rwf120,000-250,000 OR = 0.61; Rwf250,000-1,000,000 OR = 0.59; Rwf1,000,000+ OR = 0.66; p&lt;0.05 for all), and non-poor adults had 0.77 the odds of disability compared to poor adults (p = 0.001).CONCLUSION:Given that personal income rather than government programming is associated with disability in Rwanda, we recommend deliberately targeted services to those with disability via cash transfers, placements in disability-appropriate employment, and micro-savings programs

Assessing predictors of delayed antenatal care visits in Rwanda: a secondary analysis of Rwanda demographic and health survey 2010

Background: Early initiation of antenatal care (ANC) can reduce common maternal complications and maternal and perinatal mortality. Though Rwanda demonstrated a remarkable decline in maternal mortality and 98% of Rwandan women receive antenatal care from a skilled provider, only 38% of women have an ANC visit in their first three months of pregnancy. This study assessed factors associated with delayed ANC in Rwanda. Methods: This is a cross-sectional study using data collected during the 2010 Rwanda DHS from 6,325 women age 15–49 that had at least one birth in the last five years. Factors associated with delayed ANC were identified using a multivariable logistic regression model using manual backward stepwise regression. Analysis was conducted in Stata v12 applying survey commands to account for the complex sample design. Results: Several factors were significantly associated with delayed ANC including having many children (4–6 children, OR = 1.42, 95% CI: 1.22, 1.65; or more than six children, OR = 1.57, 95% CI: 1.24, 1.99); feeling that distance to health facility is a problem (OR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.38); and unwanted pregnancy (OR = 1.41, 95% CI: 1.26, 1.58). The following were protective against delayed ANC: having an ANC at a private hospital or clinic (OR = 0.29, 95% CI: 0.15, 0.56); being married (OR = 0.85, 95% CI: 0.75, 0.96), and having public mutuelle health insurance (OR = 0.81, 95% CI: 0.71, 0.92) or another type of insurance (OR = 0.33, 95% CI: 0.23, 0.46). Conclusion: This analysis revealed potential barriers to ANC service utilization. Distance to health facility remains a major constraint which suggests a great need of infrastructure and decentralization of maternal ANC to health posts and dispensaries. Interventions such as universal health insurance coverage, family planning, and community maternal health system are underway and could be part of effective strategies to address delays in ANC

Assessing predictors of delayed antenatal care visits in Rwanda: a secondary analysis of Rwanda demographic and health survey 2010

Background: Early initiation of antenatal care (ANC) can reduce common maternal complications and maternal and perinatal mortality. Though Rwanda demonstrated a remarkable decline in maternal mortality and 98% of Rwandan women receive antenatal care from a skilled provider, only 38% of women have an ANC visit in their first three months of pregnancy. This study assessed factors associated with delayed ANC in Rwanda. Methods: This is a cross-sectional study using data collected during the 2010 Rwanda DHS from 6,325 women age 15–49 that had at least one birth in the last five years. Factors associated with delayed ANC were identified using a multivariable logistic regression model using manual backward stepwise regression. Analysis was conducted in Stata v12 applying survey commands to account for the complex sample design. Results: Several factors were significantly associated with delayed ANC including having many children (4–6 children, OR = 1.42, 95% CI: 1.22, 1.65; or more than six children, OR = 1.57, 95% CI: 1.24, 1.99); feeling that distance to health facility is a problem (OR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.38); and unwanted pregnancy (OR = 1.41, 95% CI: 1.26, 1.58). The following were protective against delayed ANC: having an ANC at a private hospital or clinic (OR = 0.29, 95% CI: 0.15, 0.56); being married (OR = 0.85, 95% CI: 0.75, 0.96), and having public mutuelle health insurance (OR = 0.81, 95% CI: 0.71, 0.92) or another type of insurance (OR = 0.33, 95% CI: 0.23, 0.46). Conclusion: This analysis revealed potential barriers to ANC service utilization. Distance to health facility remains a major constraint which suggests a great need of infrastructure and decentralization of maternal ANC to health posts and dispensaries. Interventions such as universal health insurance coverage, family planning, and community maternal health system are underway and could be part of effective strategies to address delays in ANC

Assessing the Twinning Model in the Rwandan Human Resources for Health Program: Goal Setting, Satisfaction and Perceived Skill Transfer

Because of the shortage of health professionals, particularly in specialty areas, Rwanda initiated the Human Resources for Health (HRH) Program. In this program, faculty from United States teaching institutions (USF) twin with Rwandan Faculty (RF) to transfer skills. This paper assesses the twinning model, exploring USF and RF goal setting, satisfaction and perceptions of the effectiveness of skill transfer within the twinning model

Outcomes of Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis Treatment with Early Initiation of Antiretroviral Therapy for HIV Co-Infected Patients in Lesotho

Background: Although the importance of concurrent treatment for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) and HIV co-infection has been increasingly recognized, there have been few studies reporting outcomes of MDR-TB and HIV co-treatment. We report final outcomes of comprehensive, integrated MDR-TB and HIV treatment in Lesotho and examine factors associated with death or treatment failure. Methods: We reviewed clinical charts of all adult patients who initiated MDR-TB treatment in Lesotho between January 2008 and September 2009. We calculated hazard ratios (HR) and used multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression to identify predictors of poor outcomes. Results: Of 134 confirmed MDR-TB patients, 83 (62%) were cured or completed treatment, 46 (34%) died, 3 (2%) transferred, 1 (1%) defaulted, and 1 (1%) failed treatment. Treatment outcomes did not differ significantly by HIV status. Among the 94 (70%) patients with HIV co-infection, 53% were already on antiretroviral therapy (ART) before MDR-TB treatment initiation, and 43% started ART a median of 16 days after the start of the MDR-TB regimen. Among HIV co-infected patients who died, those who had not started ART before MDR-TB treatment had a shorter median time to death (80 days vs. 138 days, p = 0.065). In multivariable analysis, predictors of increased hazard of failure or death were low and severely low body mass index (HR 2.75, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.27–5.93; HR 5.50, 95% CI 2.38–12.69), and a history of working in South Africa (HR 2.37, 95% CI 1.24–4.52). Conclusions: Favorable outcomes can be achieved in co-infected patients using a community-based treatment model when both MDR-TB and HIV disease are treated concurrently and treatment is initiated promptly

Clinical mentorship to improve pediatric quality of care at the health centers in rural Rwanda: a qualitative study of perceptions and acceptability of health care workers

Background: Despite evidence supporting Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) as a strategy to improve pediatric care in countries with high child mortality, its implementation faces challenges related to lack of or poor post-didactic training supervision and gaps in necessary supporting systems. These constraints lead to health care workers’ inability to consistently translate IMCI knowledge and skills into practice. A program providing mentoring and enhanced supervision at health centers (MESH), focusing on clinical and systems improvement was implemented in rural Rwanda as a strategy to address these issues, with the ultimate goal of improving the quality of pediatric care at rural health centers. We explored perceptions of MESH from the perspective of IMCI clinical mentors, mentees, and district clinical leadership. Methods: We conducted focus group discussions with 40 health care workers from 21 MESH-supported health centers. Two FGDs in each district were carried out, including one for nurses and one for director of health centers. District medical directors and clinical mentors had individual in-depth interviews. We performed a hermeneutic analysis using Atlas.ti v5.2. Results: Study participants highlighted program components in five key areas that contributed to acceptability and impact, including: 1) Interactive, collaborative capacity-building, 2) active listening and relationships, 3) supporting not policing, 4) systems improvement, and 5) real-time feedback. Staff turn-over, stock-outs, and other facility/systems gaps were identified as barriers to MESH and IMCI implementation. Conclusion: Health care workers reported high acceptance and positive perceptions of the MESH model as an effective strategy to build their capacity, bridge the gap between knowledge and practice in pediatric care, and address facility and systems issues. This approach also improved relationships between the district supervisory team and health center-based care providers. Despite some challenges, many perceived a strong benefit on clinical performance and outcomes. This study can inform program implementers and policy makers of key components needed for developing similar health facility-based mentorship interventions and potential barriers and resistance which can be proactively addressed to ensure success