Estimating marginal cohort working life expectancies from sequential cross-sectional survey data

This article applies recently developed health expectancy methodologies to estimate the average duration of future work life in different states of work ability. Data on working capacity obtained from sequential cross-sectional samples of the cohort population were available from Finnish surveys conducted among active municipal employees. We used these data to estimate cohort marginal probabilities and expected occupancy times in the work ability states. One finding is that the proportion of workers with excellent or good work ability decreased monotonically with advancing age for both genders, but men were prone to have worse work ability and a shorter work career than women. Transition from poor to good or excellent work ability state was estimated to increase working life expectancy of a 45-year-old person by four years for both genders. This study indicates that the work ability of aging Finnish workers deteriorates prematurely, leading to serious socio-economic consequences. Thus it is important to examine the development of work ability already at an early age when it is still possible to intervene in the process

3-D Kinematics of the HH 110 jet

We present new results on the kinematics of the jet HH 110. New proper motion measurements have been calculated from [SII] CCD images obtained with a time baseline of nearly fifteen years. HH 110 proper motions show a strong asymmetry with respect to the outflow axis, with a general trend of pointing towards the west of the axis direction. Spatial velocities have been obtained by combining the proper motions and radial velocities from Fabry-Perot data. Velocities decrease by a factor ~3 over a distance of ~10$^{18}$ cm, much shorter than the distances expected for the braking caused by the jet/environment interaction. Our results show evidence of an anomalously strong interaction between the outflow and the surrounding environment, and are compatible with the scenario in which HH 110 emerges from a deflection in a jet/cloud collision.Comment: (1)Universitat de Barcelona; (2)UNAM; (3)UPC; (4)University of Hawaii; (5)Southern Astrophysical Research Telescope. 9 pages; 7 Figures Accepted by A&

Photometric study of southern SU UMa-type dwarf novae and candidates -- III: NSV 10934, MM Sco, AB Nor, CAL 86

We photometrically observed four southern dwarf novae in outburst (NSV 10934, MM Sco, AB Nor and CAL 86). NSV 10934 was confirmed to be an SU UMa-type dwarf nova with a mean superhump period of 0.07478(1) d. This star also showed transient appearance of quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs) during the final growing stage of the superhumps. Combined with the recent theoretical interpretation and with the rather unusual rapid terminal fading of normal outbursts, NSV 10934 may be a candidate intermediate polar showing SU UMa-type properties. The mean superhump periods of MM Sco and AB Nor were determined to be 0.06136(4) d and 0.08438(2) d, respectively. We suggest that AB Nor belongs to a rather rare class of long-period SU UMa-type dwarf novae with low mass-transfer rates. We also observed an outburst of the suspected SU UMa-type dwarf nova CAL 86. We identified this outburst as a normal outburst and determined the mean decline rate of 1.1 mag/d.Comment: 13 pages, 23 figures, to appear in MNRAS. For more information, see http://www.kusastro.kyoto-u.ac.jp/vsnet

Estimating cohort health expectancies from cross-sectional surveys of disability

A life history can be regarded as a random process that evolves with age through various states of health before terminating with absorption into the state of death. Health expectancies are the occupation times of the non-absorbing states and their estimation is of interest. A continuing major problem has been the lack of satisfactory longitudinal data on which to base estimates and as a result standard inferential techniques may not be relevant. Supposing only cross-sectional data available, we propose a method that is generally applicable and first estimates a logistic parametrization of the probabilities of the various states. A large sample approximation is obtained for the distribution of age specific log (odds). Parameters are estimated by weighted least squares, and this in turn leads to estimates of cohort health expectancies. A result of Liang and Zeger is used to find standard errors. The method is illustrated by application to Australian data from the health surveys of 1981, 1988 and 1993

SN 1987A's Circumstellar Envelope, II: Kinematics of the Three Rings and the Diffuse Nebula

We present several different measurements of the velocities of structures within the circumstellar envelope of SN 1987A, including the inner, equatorial ring (ER), outer rings (ORs), and the diffuse nebulosity at radii < 5 pc, based on CTIO 4m and HST data. A comparison of STIS and WFPC2 [N II]6583 loci for the rings show that the ER is expanding in radius at 10.5+-0.3 km/s, with the northern OR expanding along the line of sight at about 26 km/s, and for the southern OR, about 23 km/s. Similar results are found with CTIO 4m data. Accounting for inclination, the best fit to all data show both ORs with an expansion from the SN of 26 km/s. The ratio of the ER to OR velocities is nearly equal to the ratio of ER to OR radii, so the rings are roughly homologous, all having kinematic ages corresponding to about 20,000 yr before the SN explosion. This makes previously reported, large compositional differences between the ER and ORs difficult to understand. Additionally, a grid of longslit 4m/echelle spectra centered on the SN shows two velocity components over a region roughly coextensive with the outer circumstellar envelope extending about 5 pc (20 arcsec) from the SN. One component is blueshifted and the other redshifted from the SN centroid by about 10 km/s each. These features may represent a bipolar flow expanding from the SN, in which the ORs are propelled 10-15 km/s faster than that of the surrounding envelope into which they propogate. The kinematic timescale for the entire nebula is at least about 350,000 yr. The kinematics of these various structures constrain possible models for the evolution of the progenitor and its formation of a mass loss nebula.Comment: 25 pages AASTeX text plus 12 figures. ApJ, in pres

Decay of the toroidal field in magnetically driven jets

A 3D simulation of a non-relativistic, magnetically driven jet propagating in a stratified atmosphere is presented, covering about three decades in distance and two decades in sideways expansion. The simulation captures the jet acceleration through the critical surfaces and the development of (kink-)instabilities driven by the free energy in the toroidal magnetic field component. The instabilities destroy the ordered helical structure of the magnetic field, dissipating the toroidal field energy on a length scale of about 2-15 times the Alfven distance. We compare the results with a 2.5D (axisymmetric) simulation, which does not become unstable. The acceleration of the flow is found to be quite similar in both cases, but the mechanisms of acceleration differ. In the 2.5D case approximately 20% of the Poynting flux remains in the flow, in the 3D case this fraction is largely dissipated internally. Half of the dissipated energy is available for light emission; the resulting radiation would produce structures resembling those seen in protostellar jets.Comment: 8 pages, 10 figures, accepted for publication in A&A, complementary movies at http://www.mpa-garching.mpg.de/~rmo/pap2/index.htm