Determining the Mass of Kepler-78b With Nonparametric Gaussian Process Estimation

Kepler-78b is a transiting planet that is 1.2 times the radius of Earth and orbits a young, active K dwarf every 8 hours. The mass of Kepler-78b has been independently reported by two teams based on radial velocity measurements using the HIRES and HARPS-N spectrographs. Due to the active nature of the host star, a stellar activity model is required to distinguish and isolate the planetary signal in radial velocity data. Whereas previous studies tested parametric stellar activity models, we modeled this system using nonparametric Gaussian process (GP) regression. We produced a GP regression of relevant Kepler photometry. We then use the posterior parameter distribution for our photometric fit as a prior for our simultaneous GP + Keplerian orbit models of the radial velocity datasets. We tested three simple kernel functions for our GP regressions. Based on a Bayesian likelihood analysis, we selected a quasi-periodic kernel model with GP hyperparameters coupled between the two RV datasets, giving a Doppler amplitude of 1.86 $\pm$ 0.25 m s$^{-1}$ and supporting our belief that the correlated noise we are modeling is astrophysical. The corresponding mass of 1.87 $^{+0.27}_{-0.26}$ M$_{\oplus}$ is consistent with that measured in previous studies, and more robust due to our nonparametric signal estimation. Based on our mass and the radius measurement from transit photometry, Kepler-78b has a bulk density of 6.0$^{+1.9}_{-1.4}$ g cm$^{-3}$. We estimate that Kepler-78b is 32$\pm$26% iron using a two-component rock-iron model. This is consistent with an Earth-like composition, with uncertainty spanning Moon-like to Mercury-like compositions.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figures, accepted to ApJ 6/16/201

A Kepler study of starspot lifetimes with respect to light-curve amplitude and spectral type

ACC acknowledges support from STFC consolidated grant number ST/M001296/1. RDH gratefully acknowledges support from STFC studentship grant ST/J500744/1, a grant from the John Templeton Foundation, and NASA XRP grant NNX15AC90G.Wide-field high-precision photometric surveys such as Kepler have produced reams of data suitable for investigating stellar magnetic activity of cooler stars. Starspot activity produces quasi-sinusoidal light curves whose phase and amplitude vary as active regions grow and decay over time. Here we investigate, first, whether there is a correlation between the size of starspots - assumed to be related to the amplitude of the sinusoid - and their decay time-scale and, secondly, whether any such correlation depends on the stellar effective temperature. To determine this, we computed the auto-correlation functions of the light curves of samples of stars from Kepler and fitted them with apodised periodic functions. The light-curve amplitudes,representing spot size, were measured from the root-mean-squared scatter of the normalized light curves. We used a Monte Carlo Markov Chain to measure the periods and decay time-scales of the light curves. The results show a correlation between the decay time of starspots and their inferred size. The decay time also depends strongly on the temperature of the star. Cooler stars have spots that last much longer, in particular for stars with longer rotational periods. This is consistent with current theories of diffusive mechanisms causing starspot decay. We also find that the Sun is not unusually quiet for its spectral type -stars with solar-type rotation periods and temperatures tend to have(comparatively) smaller starspots than stars with mid-G or later spectral types.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Black carbon physical and optical properties across northern India during pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons

Black carbon (BC) is known to have major impacts on both climate and human health and is therefore of global importance, particularly in regions close to large populations that have strong sources. The size-resolved mixing state of BC-containing particles was characterised using a single-particle soot photometer (SP2). The study focusses on the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) during the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons. Data presented are from the UK Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements BAe-146 research aircraft that performed flights during the pre-monsoon (11 and 12 June) and monsoon (30 June to 11 July) seasons of 2016. Over the IGP, BC mass concentrations were greater (1.95 µg m−3) compared to north-west India (1.50 µg m−3) and north-east India (0.70 µg m−3) during the pre-monsoon season. Across northern India, two distinct BC modes were recorded; a mode of small BC particles (core diameter <0.16 µm and coating thickness <50 nm) and a mode of moderately coated BC (core diameter <0.22 µm and coating thickness of 50–200 nm). The IGP and north-east India locations exhibited moderately coated black carbon particles with enhanced coating thicknesses, core sizes, mass absorption cross sections, and scattering enhancement values compared to much lower values present in the north-west. The coating thickness and mass absorption cross section increased with altitude (13 %) compared to those in the boundary layer. As the monsoon arrived across the region, mass concentration of BC decreased over the central IGP and north-east locations (38 % and 28 % respectively), whereas for the north-west location BC properties remained relatively consistent. Post-monsoon onset, the coating thickness, core size, mass absorption cross section, and scattering enhancement values were all greatest over the central IGP much like the pre-monsoon season but were considerably reduced over both north-east and north-west India. Increases in mass absorption cross section through the atmospheric column were still present during the monsoon for the north-west and central IGP locations, but less so over the north-east due to lack of long-range transport aerosol aloft. Across the Indo-Gangetic Plain and north-east India during the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons, solid-fuel (wood burning) emissions form the greatest proportion of BC with moderately coated particles. However, as the monsoon develops in the north-east there was a switch to small uncoated BC particles indicative of traffic emissions, but the solid-fuel emissions remained in the IGP into the monsoon. For both seasons in the north-west, traffic emissions form the greatest proportion of BC particles. Our findings will prove important for greater understanding of the BC physical and optical properties, with important consequences for the atmospheric radiative forcing of BC-containing particles. The findings will also help constrain the regional aerosol models for a variety of applications such as space-based remote sensing, chemistry transport modelling, air quality, and BC source and emission inventories

Adaptive monitoring using the endangered northern corroboree frog (Pseudophryne pengilleyi) as a case study

Abstract Monitoring programs are most successful when they undertake regular evaluation of their data to determine if the goals of the programs are achievable and allow changes to achieve this as necessary -so called adaptive monitoring. We use data from a monitoring program for the northern corroboree frog (Pseudophryne pengilleyi), a declining species in south-eastern Australia, to determine the inter-annual variability in the counts and assess what levels of population change would be detectable using different statistical and monitoring approaches. The existing monitoring program would only successfully statistically detect a 3% annual decline (34% total decline) in population size over a ten year period. Monitoring 40 sites would allow an 80% or greater chance of detecting a 2% or greater annual increase over a ten year period (22% increase). Detecting population decreases is more difficult as monitoring 40 sites with a 2% annual decline (19% total decline) will have a less than 40% chance of being detected after 10 years. A larger monitoring program is required to detect smaller annual changes in the population of this species. These findings have implications for the likely effectiveness of other anuran monitoring programs as the northern corroboree frog appears to be far more consistent in detectable call effort compared to most species

Radial Velocity Prospects Current and Future: A White Paper Report prepared by the Study Analysis Group 8 for the Exoplanet Program Analysis Group (ExoPAG)

[Abridged] The Study Analysis Group 8 of the NASA Exoplanet Analysis Group was convened to assess the current capabilities and the future potential of the precise radial velocity (PRV) method to advance the NASA goal to "search for planetary bodies and Earth-like planets in orbit around other stars.: (U.S. National Space Policy, June 28, 2010). PRVs complement other exoplanet detection methods, for example offering a direct path to obtaining the bulk density and thus the structure and composition of transiting exoplanets. Our analysis builds upon previous community input, including the ExoPlanet Community Report chapter on radial velocities in 2008, the 2010 Decadal Survey of Astronomy, the Penn State Precise Radial Velocities Workshop response to the Decadal Survey in 2010, and the NSF Portfolio Review in 2012. The radial-velocity detection of exoplanets is strongly endorsed by both the Astro 2010 Decadal Survey "New Worlds, New Horizons" and the NSF Portfolio Review, and the community has recommended robust investment in PRVs. The demands on telescope time for the above mission support, especially for systems of small planets, will exceed the number of nights available using instruments now in operation by a factor of at least several for TESS alone. Pushing down towards true Earth twins will require more photons (i.e. larger telescopes), more stable spectrographs than are currently available, better calibration, and better correction for stellar jitter. We outline four hypothetical situations for PRV work necessary to meet NASA mission exoplanet science objectives.Comment: ExoPAG SAG 8 final report, 112 pages, fixed author name onl

A quantification of the relationship between neuronal responses in the rat rostral ventromedial medulla and noxious stimulation-evoked withdrawal reflexes

The rostral ventromedial medulla (RVM) regulates a range of involuntary behaviours but is most often associated with nociception via the action of pronociceptive ON cells and antinociceptive OFF cells. The phasic responses of ON and OFF cells determine whether or not incoming noxious signals provoke a withdrawal reflex, and previous studies have suggested that reflex RVM activity patterns actively shape motor output. Here we challenged the model by using juvenile rats, which are known to exhibit markedly different reflex responses compared with adults. By recording single-cell activity in the RVM and the electromyography responses of hindlimb flexor muscles to noxious thermal stimulation we found that the juvenile reflex had a shorter onset latency, was larger in amplitude and exhibited a decreased rise time compared with the adult reflex. The responses of ON and OFF cells faithfully tracked the shorter onset latency of the reflex by also responding earlier and, thus, still preceded the reflex. However, neither the reflex amplitude nor the ongoing response profile was predicted by the firing rate of RVM cells in either age group. Instead we found a close correspondence between RVM activity and the reflex only during the initiation of the response. Furthermore, the short rise time of the juvenile reflex was reflected in higher rates of change of both ON and OFF cell firing. Our data suggest that the RVM is associated only with the initiation of reflexes and does not shape ongoing muscle activity, which is more likely to be subserved by downstream spinal processes

Hidden giants: The story of Bolbometopon muricatum at ningaloo reef

Bolbometopon muricatum (bumphead parrotfish, Valenciennes, 1839) is a conspicuous, iconic and ecologically important coral reef fish species. B. muricatum plays an important role in the bioerosion of the reef framework and as a result has been described as both an ecosystem engineer and keystone species. Despite the complete absence of B. muricatum from 32 years of scientific surveys across the Ningaloo Reef World Heritage Area, we recorded a total of 155 individuals of B. muricatum across 63.2 ha of reef crest surveys, equating to mean density of 2.38 ind/ha. Our observations represent the first record of this iconic species in scientific surveys at Ningaloo and in combination with qualitative observations of B. muricatum by expert witnesses, indicate B. muricatum is likely to have been present in ecologically relevant densities since 2006. The densities of B. muricatum observed at northern Ningaloo in 2021 suggest this species is removing an estimated 13.42 tonnes/ha or 1.34 kg/m2 of calcium carbonate per year, which is broadly comparable with estimates of total parrotfish bioerosion across many reefs in the central Indian and Pacific Oceans. Although not currently afforded elevated conservation status within management plans, B. muricatum possess many life-history characteristics that make them vulnerable to overfishing and may justify consideration for increased protection within the world heritage listed Ningaloo Reef Marine Park

The Sun as a planet-host star : proxies from SDO images for HARPS radial-velocity variations

RDH gratefully acknowledges STFC studentship grant number ST/J500744/1, and a grant from the John Templeton Foundation. ACC and RF acknowledge support from STFC consolidated grants numbers ST/J001651/1 and ST/M001296/1. JL acknowledges support from NASA Origins of the Solar System grant No. NNX13AH79G and from STFC grant ST/M001296/1.The Sun is the only star whose surface can be directly resolved at high resolution, and therefore constitutes an excellent test case to explore the physical origin of stellar radial-velocity (RV) variability. We present HARPS observations of sunlight scattered off the bright asteroid 4/Vesta, from which we deduced the Sun's activity-driven RV variations. In parallel, the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager instrument on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory provided us with simultaneous high spatial resolution magnetograms, Dopplergrams and continuum images of the Sun in the Fe i 6173 Å line. We determine the RV modulation arising from the suppression of granular blueshift in magnetized regions and the flux imbalance induced by dark spots and bright faculae. The rms velocity amplitudes of these contributions are 2.40 and 0.41 m s−1, respectively, which confirms that the inhibition of convection is the dominant source of activity-induced RV variations at play, in accordance with previous studies. We find the Doppler imbalances of spot and plage regions to be only weakly anticorrelated. Light curves can thus only give incomplete predictions of convective blueshift suppression. We must instead seek proxies that track the plage coverage on the visible stellar hemisphere directly. The chromospheric flux index R′HK derived from the HARPS spectra performs poorly in this respect, possibly because of the differences in limb brightening/darkening in the chromosphere and photosphere. We also find that the activity-driven RV variations of the Sun are strongly correlated with its full-disc magnetic flux density, which may become a useful proxy for activity-related RV noise.PostprintPeer reviewe