A comparison of statistical emulation methodologies for multi-wave calibration of environmental models

Expensive computer codes, particularly those used simulating environmental or geological processes such as climate models, require calibration (sometimes called tuning). When calibrating expensive simulators using uncertainty quantification methods, it is usually necessary to use a statistical model called an emulator in place of the computer code when running the calibration algorithm. Though emulators based on Gaussian processes are typically many orders of magnitude faster to evaluate than the simulator they mimic, many applications have sought to speed up the computations by using regression-only emulators within the calculations instead, arguing that the extra sophistication brought using the Gaussian process is not worth the extra computational power. This was the case for the analysis that produced the UK climate projections in 2009. In this paper we compare the effectiveness of both emulation approaches upon a multi-wave calibration framework that is becoming popular in the climate modelling community called \history matching". We find that Gaussian processes offer significant benefits to the reduction of parametric uncertainty over regression-only approaches. We find that in a multi-wave experiment, a combination of regression-only emulators initially, followed by Gaussian process emulators for refocussing experiments can be nearly as effective as using Gaussian processes throughout for a fraction of the computational cost. We also discover a number of design and emulator-dependent features of the multi-wave history matching approach that can cause apparent, yet premature, convergence of our estimates of parametric uncertainty. We compare these approaches to calibration in idealised examples and apply it to a well-known geological reservoir mode

Quantitative assessment of sewer overflow performance with climate change in northwest England

Changes in rainfall patterns associated with climate change can affect the operation of a combined sewer system, with the potential increase in rainfall amount. This could lead to excessive spill frequencies and could also introduce hazardous substances into the receiving waters, which, in turn, would have an impact on the quality of shellfish and bathing waters. This paper quantifies the spilling volume, duration and frequency of 19 combined sewer overflows (CSOs) to receiving waters under two climate change scenarios, the high (A1FI), and the low emissions (B1) scenarios, simulated by three global climate models (GCMs), for a study catchment in northwest England. The future rainfall is downscaled, using climatic variables from HadCM3, CSIRO and CGCM2 GCMs, with the use of a hybrid generalized linear–artificial neural network model. The results from the model simulation for the future in 2080 showed an annual increase of 37% in total spill volume, 32% in total spill duration, and 12% in spill frequency for the shellfish water limiting requirements. These results were obtained, under the high emissions scenario, as projected by the HadCM3 as maximum. Nevertheless, the catchment drainage system is projected to cope with the future conditions in 2080 by all three GCMs. The results also indicate that under scenario B1, a significant drop was projected by CSIRO, which in the worst case could reach up to 50% in spill volume, 39% in spill duration and 25% in spill frequency. The results further show that, during the bathing season, a substantial drop is expected in the CSO spill drivers, as predicted by all GCMs under both scenarios

Relationship between erythema effective UV radiant exposure, total ozone, cloud cover and aerosols in southern England, UK

Evidence of an underlying trend in the dependence of erythema effective ultraviolet (UV) radiant exposure (Her) on changes in the total ozone, cloud cover and aerosol optical depth (AOD) has been studied using solar ultraviolet radiation measurements collected over a 25-year period (1991–2015) at Chilton in the south of England in the UK. The monthly mean datasets of these measures corrected for underlying seasonal variation were analysed. When a single linear trend was fitted over the whole study period between 1991 and 2015, the analyses revealed that the long-term variability of Her can be best characterised in two sub-periods (1991–2004 and 2004–2015), where the estimated linear trend was upward in the first period (1991–2004) but downward in the second period (2004–2015). Both cloud cover (CC) and total ozone (TO) were found to have a highly statistically significant influence on Her, but the influence of the AOD measure was very small. The radiation amplification factor (RAF) for the erythema action spectrum due to TO was −1.03 at constant levels of CC over the whole study period; that is, for a 1.0&thinsp;% increase in TO, Her decreases by 1.03&thinsp;%. Over the first period (1991–2004), the RAF related to CC was slightly higher at 0.97 compared to that for TO at 0.79. The proportion of the change in Her explained by the change in CC (47&thinsp;%) was much greater than the proportion explained by changes in TO (8&thinsp;%). For the second period (2004–2015), the pattern reversed, with the observed RAF related to TO being −1.25, almost double that of CC (−0.65). Furthermore, in this period the proportion of variation in Her explained by TO variation was 33&thinsp;%, double that of CC at 16&thinsp;%, while AOD changes had a negligible effect (1&thinsp;%). When the data were examined separately for each season, for the first period (1991–2004) the greatest effect of TO and CC on Her (i.e. the largest RAF value) was found during spring. Spring was also the season during which TO and CC variation explained the greatest proportion of variability in Her (82&thinsp;%). In the later period (2004–2015), the RAF and greatest influence of TO and CC were observed in winter (67&thinsp;%) and the AOD effect explained a further 5&thinsp;% variability in Her. This study provides evidence that both the increasing trend in Her for 1991–2004 and the decreasing trend in Her for 2004–2015 occur in response to variation in TO, which exhibits a small increasing tendency over these periods. CC plays a more important role in the increasing trend in Her for 1991–2004 than TO, whereas for 2004–2015, the decreasing trend in Her is less associated with changes in CC and AOD.</p

Environmental differences between sites control the diet and nutrition of the carnivorous plant Drosera rotundifolia

Background and aims: Carnivorous plants are sensitive to small changes in resource availability, but few previous studies have examined how differences in nutrient and prey availability affect investment in and the benefit of carnivory. We studied the impact of site-level differences in resource availability on ecophysiological traits of carnivory for Drosera rotundifolia L. Methods: We measured prey availability, investment in carnivory (leaf stickiness), prey capture and diet of plants growing in two bogs with differences in N deposition and plant available N: Cors Fochno (0.62 g m−2 yr.−1, 353 μg l−1), Whixall Moss (1.37 g m−2 yr.−1, 1505 μg l−1). The total N amount per plant and the contributions of prey/root N to the plants’ N budget were calculated using a single isotope natural abundance method. Results: Plants at Whixall Moss invested less in carnivory, were less likely to capture prey, and were less reliant on prey-derived N (25.5% compared with 49.4%). Actual prey capture did not differ between sites. Diet composition differed – Cors Fochno plants captured 62% greater proportions of Diptera. Conclusions: Our results show site-level differences in plant diet and nutrition consistent with differences in resource availability. Similarity in actual prey capture may be explained by differences in leaf stickiness and prey abundance

Anti-cancer effects and mechanism of actions of aspirin analogues in the treatment of glioma cancer

INTRODUCTION: In the past 25 years only modest advancements in glioma treatment have been made, with patient prognosis and median survival time following diagnosis only increasing from 3 to 7 months. A substantial body of clinical and preclinical evidence has suggested a role for aspirin in the treatment of cancer with multiple mechanisms of action proposed including COX 2 inhibition, down regulation of EGFR expression, and NF-κB signaling affecting Bcl-2 expression. However, with serious side effects such as stroke and gastrointestinal bleeding, aspirin analogues with improved potency and side effect profiles are being developed. METHOD: Effects on cell viability following 24 hr incubation of four aspirin derivatives (PN508, 517, 526 and 529) were compared to cisplatin, aspirin and di-aspirin in four glioma cell lines (U87 MG, SVG P12, GOS – 3, and 1321N1), using the PrestoBlue assay, establishing IC50 and examining the time course of drug effects. RESULTS: All compounds were found to decrease cell viability in a concentration and time dependant manner. Significantly, the analogue PN517 (IC50 2mM) showed approximately a twofold increase in potency when compared to aspirin (3.7mM) and cisplatin (4.3mM) in U87 cells, with similar increased potency in SVG P12 cells. Other analogues demonstrated similar potency to aspirin and cisplatin. CONCLUSION: These results support the further development and characterization of novel NSAID derivatives for the treatment of glioma

Mortality and cancer incidence following occupational radiation exposure: third analysis of the National Registry for Radiation Workers

Mortality and cancer incidence were studied in the National Registry for Radiation Workers in, relative to earlier analyses, an enlarged cohort of 174 541 persons, with longer follow-up (to 2001) and, for the first time, cancer registration data. SMRs for all causes and all malignant neoplasms were 81 and 84 respectively, demonstrating a ‘healthy worker effect'. Within the cohort, mortality and incidence from both leukaemia excluding CLL and the grouping of all malignant neoplasms excluding leukaemia increased to a statistically significant extent with increasing radiation dose. Estimates of the trend in risk with dose were similar to those for the Japanese A-bomb survivors, with 90% confidence intervals that excluded both risks more than 2–3 times greater than the A-bomb values and no raised risk. Some evidence of an increasing trend with dose in mortality from all circulatory diseases may, at least partly, be due to confounding by smoking. This analysis provides the most precise estimates to date of mortality and cancer risks following occupational radiation exposure and strengthens the evidence for raised risks from these exposures. The cancer risk estimates are consistent with values used to set radiation protection standards

Cancer in the offspring of radiation workers: an investigation of employment timing and a reanalysis using updated dose information

An earlier case-control study found no evidence of paternal preconceptional irradiation (PPI) as a cause of childhood leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (LNHL). Although fathers of children with LNHL were more likely to have been radiation workers, the risk was most marked in those with doses below the level of detection. The timing of paternal employment as a radiation worker has now been examined. The previously reported elevated risk of LNHL in the children of male radiation workers was limited to those whose fathers were still radiation workers at conception or whose employment also continued until diagnosis. Children whose fathers stopped radiation work prior to their conception were found to have no excess risk of LNHL. It was not possible to distinguish between the risks associated with paternal radiation work at conception and at the time of diagnosis. A reanalysis of the original study hypothesis incorporating updated dosimetric information gave similar results to those obtained previously. In particular, the risks of LNHL did not show an association with radiation doses received by the father before conception. It seems likely that the increased risk of LNHL among the children of male radiation workers is associated with an increased exposure to some infective agent consequent on high levels of population mixing