Discounting Future Reward in an Uncertain World

Humans discount delayed relative to more immediate reward. A plausible explanation is that impatience arises partly from uncertainty, or risk, implicit in delayed reward. Existing theories of discounting-as-risk focus on a probability that delayed reward will not materialize. By contrast, we examine how uncertainty in the magnitude of delayed reward contributes to delay discounting. We propose a model wherein reward is discounted proportional to the rate of random change in its magnitude across time, termed volatility. We find evidence to support this model across three experiments (total N = 158). First, using a task where participants chose when to sell products, whose price dynamics they previously learned, we show discounting increases in line with price volatility. Second, we show that this effect pertains over naturalistic delays of up to 4 months. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we observe a volatility-dependent decrease in functional hippocampal–prefrontal coupling during intertemporal choice. Third, we replicate these effects in a larger online sample, finding that volatility discounting within each task correlates with baseline discounting outside of the task.We conclude that delay discounting partly reflects time-dependent uncertainty about reward magnitude, that is volatility. Our model captures how discounting adapts to volatility, thereby partly accounting for individual differences in impatience. Our imaging findings suggest a putative mechanism whereby uncertainty reduces prospective simulation of future outcomes

Microstructure and oxide particle stability in a novel ODS γ-TiAl alloy processed by spark plasma sintering and laser additive manufacturing

In this work, a novel oxide dispersion strengthened titanium aluminide alloy (Ti-45Al-3Nb-<0.2Y2O3 at.%) was developed for powder-based processing technologies with a focus on spark plasma sintering and additive manufacturing. Titanium aluminides are promising structural intermetallics for weight reduction and an increased performance of high temperature components. The alloy design and selection process was supported by computational thermodynamics based on the CALPHAD approach, taking into account requirements for processing as well as long term alloy behavior under service conditions. Processing trials using spark plasma sintering, direct metal deposition and selective laser melting were conducted to study the alloy behavior, microstructure formation and introduction as well as stability of the ODS particles. Additionally, thermal annealing on the sintered and laser consolidated material was performed. Conventional dual phase α2-Ti3Al and γ-TiAl duplex and near-lamellar microstructures were obtained from the processed material. The ODS particles were homogeneously distributed in the alloy matrix after processing in the liquid state. For the direct metal deposition process, the novel alloy was compared to the established GE48-2-2 alloy (Ti-48Al-2Cr-2Nb) in terms of phases, microstructure and texture after processing. A significantly reduced texture formation was observed with the novel alloy. The hardness of the consolidated material shows superior properties for ODS-containing TiAl compared to ODS-free material. This work provides a first step towards tailored alloys for AM and the production of ODS TiAl alloys

Urbilaterian origin of paralogous GnRH and corazonin neuropeptide signalling pathways

This work was supported by funding from the China Scholarship Council (awarded to ST), Leverhulme Trust (grant RGP-2013-351, awarded to MRE), BBSRC (grant BB/M001644/1 awarded to MRE; grant BB/M001032/1 awarded to JHS) and a Company of Biologists (Journal of Experimental Biology) Travelling Fellowship awarded to MZ. IB is supported by a postdoctoral fellowship from the Research Foundation–Flanders (FWO)

Positive words carry less information than negative words

We show that the frequency of word use is not only determined by the word length \cite{Zipf1935} and the average information content \cite{Piantadosi2011}, but also by its emotional content. We have analyzed three established lexica of affective word usage in English, German, and Spanish, to verify that these lexica have a neutral, unbiased, emotional content. Taking into account the frequency of word usage, we find that words with a positive emotional content are more frequently used. This lends support to Pollyanna hypothesis \cite{Boucher1969} that there should be a positive bias in human expression. We also find that negative words contain more information than positive words, as the informativeness of a word increases uniformly with its valence decrease. Our findings support earlier conjectures about (i) the relation between word frequency and information content, and (ii) the impact of positive emotions on communication and social links.Comment: 16 pages, 3 figures, 3 table

Doppler findings in a rare Coronary Artery Fistula

One of the primary forms of congenital anomalies of the coronary arteries is coronary artery fistula (CAF). It is defined as a direct communication between the coronary artery and any surrounding cardiac chamber or vascular structure, which bypasses the myocardial capillary bed. We present a newborn baby with a large coronary artery fistula connecting the left anterior descending (LAD) artery to the left ventricular (LV) apex. Associated cardiac abnormalities were found: a ventricular septal defect (diameter 4 mm), a patent foramen ovale as well as trivial tricuspid and mitral regurgitation. Here we demonstrate the echocardiograms of an extremely rare form of CAF diagnosed within the first days of postnatal life

Public Acceptability in the UK and USA of Nudging to Reduce Obesity: The Example of Reducing Sugar-Sweetened Beverages Consumption.

BACKGROUND: "Nudging"-modifying environments to change people's behavior, often without their conscious awareness-can improve health, but public acceptability of nudging is largely unknown. METHODS: We compared acceptability, in the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States of America (USA), of government interventions to reduce consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages. Three nudge interventions were assessed: i. reducing portion Size, ii. changing the Shape of the drink containers, iii. changing their shelf Location; alongside two traditional interventions: iv. Taxation and v. Education. We also tested the hypothesis that describing interventions as working through non-conscious processes decreases their acceptability. Predictors of acceptability, including perceived intervention effectiveness, were also assessed. Participants (n = 1093 UK and n = 1082 USA) received a description of each of the five interventions which varied, by randomisation, in how the interventions were said to affect behaviour: (a) via conscious processes; (b) via non-conscious processes; or (c) no process stated. Acceptability was derived from responses to three items. RESULTS: Levels of acceptability for four of the five interventions did not differ significantly between the UK and US samples; reducing portion size was less accepted by the US sample. Within each country, Education was rated as most acceptable and Taxation the least, with the three nudge-type interventions rated between these. There was no evidence to support the study hypothesis: i.e. stating that interventions worked via non-conscious processes did not decrease their acceptability in either the UK or US samples. Perceived effectiveness was the strongest predictor of acceptability for all interventions across the two samples. CONCLUSION: In conclusion, nudge interventions to reduce consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages seem similarly acceptable in the UK and USA, being more acceptable than taxation, but less acceptable than education. Contrary to prediction, we found no evidence that highlighting the non-conscious processes by which nudge interventions may work decreases their acceptability. However, highlighting the effectiveness of all interventions has the potential to increase their acceptability.The study was funded by the UK Department of Health Policy Research Programme (Policy Research Unit in Behaviour and Health) (Grant ID: PRUN-0409-10109)This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from the Public Library of Science via http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.015599

Temporal trends in serum concentrations of polychlorinated dioxins, furans, and PCBs among adult women living in Chapaevsk, Russia: a longitudinal study from 2000 to 2009

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The present study assessed the temporal trend in serum concentrations of polychlorinated dibenzo-<it>p</it>-dioxins, dibenzofurans, and biphenyls (PCBs) among residents of a Russian town where levels of these chemicals are elevated due to prior industrial activity.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Two serum samples were collected from eight adult women (in 2000 and 2009), and analyzed with gas chromatography-high-resolution mass spectrometry.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The average total toxic equivalency (TEQ) decreased by 30% (from 36 to 25 pg/g lipid), and the average sum of PCB congeners decreased by 19% (from 291 to 211 ng/g lipid). Total TEQs decreased for seven of the eight women, and the sum of PCBs decreased for six of eight women. During this nine year period, larger decreases in serum TEQs and PCBs were found in women with greater increases in body mass index.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This study provides suggestive evidence that average serum concentrations of dioxins, furans, and PCBs are decreasing over time among residents of this town.</p

Supersymmetric Monojets at the Large Hadron Collider

Supersymmetric monojets may be produced at the Large Hadron Collider by the process qg -> squark neutralino_1 -> q neutralino_1 neutralino_1, leading to a jet recoiling against missing transverse momentum. We discuss the feasibility and utility of the supersymmetric monojet signal. In particular, we examine the possible precision with which one can ascertain the neutralino_1-squark-quark coupling via the rate for monojet events. Such a coupling contains information on the composition of the neutralino_1 and helps bound dark matter direct detection cross-sections and the dark matter relic density of the neutralino_1. It also provides a check of the supersymmetric relation between gauge couplings and gaugino-quark-squark couplings.Comment: 46 pages, 10 figures. The appendix has been rewritten to correct an error that appears in all previous versions of the appendix. This error has no effect on the results in the main body of the pape

Analytic philosophy for biomedical research: the imperative of applying yesterday's timeless messages to today's impasses

The mantra that "the best way to predict the future is to invent it" (attributed to the computer scientist Alan Kay) exemplifies some of the expectations from the technical and innovative sides of biomedical research at present. However, for technical advancements to make real impacts both on patient health and genuine scientific understanding, quite a number of lingering challenges facing the entire spectrum from protein biology all the way to randomized controlled trials should start to be overcome. The proposal in this chapter is that philosophy is essential in this process. By reviewing select examples from the history of science and philosophy, disciplines which were indistinguishable until the mid-nineteenth century, I argue that progress toward the many impasses in biomedicine can be achieved by emphasizing theoretical work (in the true sense of the word 'theory') as a vital foundation for experimental biology. Furthermore, a philosophical biology program that could provide a framework for theoretical investigations is outlined