Resource Footprints are Good Proxies of Environmental Damage

Environmental footprints are increasingly used to quantify and compare environmental impacts of for example products, technologies, households, or nations. This has resulted in a multitude of footprint indicators, ranging from relatively simple measures of resource use (water, energy, materials) to integrated measures of eventual damage (for example, extinction of species). Yet, the possible redundancies among these different footprints have not yet been quantified. This paper analyzes the relationships between two comprehensive damage footprints and four resource footprints associated with 976 products. The resource footprints accounted for >90% of the variation in the damage footprints. Human health damage was primarily associated with the energy footprint, via emissions resulting from fossil fuel combustion. Biodiversity damage was mainly related to the energy and land footprints, the latter being mainly determined by agriculture and forestry. Our results indicate that relatively simple resource footprints are highly representative of damage to human health and biodiversity

Predictive resource planning: coupling construction needs with demolition waste forecasts

Current systems of construction and demolition waste (CDW) recycling function insufficiently to meet the European ambitions of resource efficiency (Dahlbo et al., 2015). Knowledge about when, where and what will become available from CDW could stimulate the development of new recycling and production processes based on secondary materials, thereby reducing environmental and societal impact related to primary materials. Various methods exist to quantify CDW streams (see Wu et al., 2014), but the application of CDW forecasting methods is not yet common practice in waste and resource management. Lifetime Analysis (LA) seems to be a useful approach, comprising a practical bottom-up analysis of building materials and their expected replacements. Especially for countries with a high expected need for future construction activities and high material demand, LA is a potentially useful though scarcely tested method to forecast secondary material supply. Examples of these countries can be the rapidly emerging and developing countries, but can also be densely built and developed countries like The Netherlands, where current construction and demolition rates reflect a replacement of existing dwellings in cycles of 200 years, while buildings are designed and expected to function for only about 50 years (Mulder et al., 2015). Our study aimed to provide insight in the benefits and drawbacks of LA in resource planning, addressing three main questions: (1) How can future CDW streams be modelled realistically? (2) Can this model deliver useful insights into the supply of (secondary) materials? (3) Can the forecasted supply of materials be coupled with the expected demand for (secondary) construction materials? The combination of CDW forecasting and resource management was evaluated by means of a regional case study in the architecturally diverse and strategically important Metropole Region of Amsterdam (MRA). In the case study, the material flows of the main components (e.g. foundation, walls, windows) of the most common dwelling type (the terrace house) were inventoried, taking into account several architectural styles. The expected replacement times of these materials were modelled over a period of 50 years, based on economic trends and technical characteristics. This resulted in a forecast of diverse waste streams becoming available at different moments in the next decades. Results showed a distinction between bulk streams (amongst others: calcium silicate bricks) and smaller streams (amongst others: glass), and the temporal variations in expected supply of these materials. Combined with construction forecasts, several demolition scenarios were developed which explored the potential match between supply and demand. For example, the largest waste stream from CDW was stony material which is currently used as foundation materials in infrastructure, but this market is expected to be saturated in the coming decades and therefore other applications for this waste material have to be explored. The kind of modelling as applied in this study can be translated to other urban cases, but the results of this study should be considered with care with respect to the scope of materials included, the exact years of demolition and the location dependent characteristics. The list of analysed materials in this study was limited due to time constraints, though sufficient materials are inventoried to illustrate the potential of this type of modelling. The exact year of demolition as used in the scenarios is a variable parameter which can be altered to find matches between supply and demand. It is recommended to expand the study area to other regions and countries, which enable tailored policy and business development and validation of results. References: Dahlbo, H., Bachér, J., Lähtinen, K., Jouttijärvi, T., Suoheimo, P., Mattila, T., Sironen, S., Myllymaa, T., & Saramäki, K. (2015). Construction and demolition waste management - a holistic evaluation of environmental performance. Journal of Cleaner Production 107, pp333-341. Wu, S. Yu, A.T.W., Shen, L., & Liu, G. (2014). Quantifying construction and demolition waste: An analytical review. Waste Management 34 (9), pp1683–1692. Mulder, G., Koops, O., Kamphuis, V., Willems, M. Vos-Effting, S. de, Donkervoort, R., & Dijkmans, T. (2015). Vervangende Nieuwbouw. TNO Report R10515. TNO: Delft

Modelling intensive care unit capacity under different epidemiological scenarios of the COVID-19 pandemic in three Western European countries.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has placed enormous strain on intensive care units (ICUs) in Europe. Ensuring access to care, irrespective of COVID-19 status, in winter 2020-2021 is essential. METHODS: An integrated model of hospital capacity planning and epidemiological projections of COVID-19 patients is used to estimate the demand for and resultant spare capacity of ICU beds, staff and ventilators under different epidemic scenarios in France, Germany and Italy across the 2020-2021 winter period. The effect of implementing lockdowns triggered by different numbers of COVID-19 patients in ICUs under varying levels of effectiveness is examined, using a 'dual-demand' (COVID-19 and non-COVID-19) patient model. RESULTS: Without sufficient mitigation, we estimate that COVID-19 ICU patient numbers will exceed those seen in the first peak, resulting in substantial capacity deficits, with beds being consistently found to be the most constrained resource. Reactive lockdowns could lead to large improvements in ICU capacity during the winter season, with pressure being most effectively alleviated when lockdown is triggered early and sustained under a higher level of suppression. The success of such interventions also depends on baseline bed numbers and average non-COVID-19 patient occupancy. CONCLUSION: Reductions in capacity deficits under different scenarios must be weighed against the feasibility and drawbacks of further lockdowns. Careful, continuous decision-making by national policymakers will be required across the winter period 2020-2021

The Lectin Receptor Kinase LecRK-I.9 Is a Novel Phytophthora Resistance Component and a Potential Host Target for a RXLR Effector

In plants, an active defense against biotrophic pathogens is dependent on a functional continuum between the cell wall (CW) and the plasma membrane (PM). It is thus anticipated that proteins maintaining this continuum also function in defense. The legume-like lectin receptor kinase LecRK-I.9 is a putative mediator of CW-PM adhesions in Arabidopsis and is known to bind in vitro to the Phytophthora infestans RXLR-dEER effector IPI-O via a RGD cell attachment motif present in IPI-O. Here we show that LecRK-I.9 is associated with the plasma membrane, and that two T-DNA insertions lines deficient in LecRK-I.9 (lecrk-I.9) have a ‘gain-of-susceptibility’ phenotype specifically towards the oomycete Phytophthora brassicae. Accordingly, overexpression of LecRK-I.9 leads to enhanced resistance to P. brassicae. A similar ‘gain-of-susceptibility’ phenotype was observed in transgenic Arabidopsis lines expressing ipiO (35S-ipiO1). This phenocopy behavior was also observed with respect to other defense-related functions; lecrk-I.9 and 35S-ipiO1 were both disturbed in pathogen- and MAMP-triggered callose deposition. By site-directed mutagenesis, we demonstrated that the RGD cell attachment motif in IPI-O is not only essential for disrupting the CW-PM adhesions, but also for disease suppression. These results suggest that destabilizing the CW-PM continuum is one of the tactics used by Phytophthora to promote infection. As countermeasure the host may want to strengthen CW-PM adhesions and the novel Phytophthora resistance component LecRK-I.9 seems to function in this process

Clinical Characteristics and Predictors of Outcomes of Hospitalized Patients With Coronavirus Disease 2019 in a Multiethnic London National Health Service Trust: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Emerging evidence suggests ethnic minorities are disproportionately affected by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Detailed clinical analyses of multicultural hospitalized patient cohorts remain largely undescribed. METHODS: We performed regression, survival, and cumulative competing risk analyses to evaluate factors associated with mortality in patients admitted for COVID-19 in 3 large London hospitals between 25 February and 5 April, censored as of 1 May 2020. RESULTS: Of 614 patients (median age, 69 [interquartile range, 25] years) and 62% male), 381 (62%) were discharged alive, 178 (29%) died, and 55 (9%) remained hospitalized at censoring. Severe hypoxemia (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 4.25 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 2.36-7.64]), leukocytosis (aOR, 2.35 [95% CI, 1.35-4.11]), thrombocytopenia (aOR [1.01, 95% CI, 1.00-1.01], increase per 109 decrease), severe renal impairment (aOR, 5.14 [95% CI, 2.65-9.97]), and low albumin (aOR, 1.06 [95% CI, 1.02-1.09], increase per gram decrease) were associated with death. Forty percent (n = 244) were from black, Asian, and other minority ethnic (BAME) groups, 38% (n = 235) were white, and ethnicity was unknown for 22% (n = 135). BAME patients were younger and had fewer comorbidities. Although the unadjusted odds of death did not differ by ethnicity, when adjusting for age, sex, and comorbidities, black patients were at higher odds of death compared to whites (aOR, 1.69 [95% CI, 1.00-2.86]). This association was stronger when further adjusting for admission severity (aOR, 1.85 [95% CI, 1.06-3.24]). CONCLUSIONS: BAME patients were overrepresented in our cohort; when accounting for demographic and clinical profile of admission, black patients were at increased odds of death. Further research is needed into biologic drivers of differences in COVID-19 outcomes by ethnicity

Interacting enabling conditions for accelerating system transition to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees

The IPCC Special report on Global Warming of 1.5°C, as well as preceding and following Assessment reports have pointed to the need for strengthened climate mitigation and described ‘enabling conditions’ that have the potential to provide such strengthening due to their mutual reinforcing interactions. These conditions relate 1) multi-level governance, effectively including local to global actors from a wide range of societal niches, 2) strong institutional capacities, 3) behavioral changes to 1.5°C compatible lifestyles, 4) technological innovation for carbon neutral technologies and their surrounding socio-technological system, progressively lowering costs and increasing acceptance, 5) design and implementation of multi-objective multi-instrument policy packages and 6) climate finance (investment for mitigation and adaptation and divestment of fossil systems) and the underlying risk perceptions. Our research uses qualitative system dynamics modelling to deepen the understanding of these enabling conditions by describing their main underlying mechanism. Two Dutch cases, relating to chemical clusters and cycling mobility, are explored in more detail to showcase the (potential) manifestation of enabling conditions and reinforcing feedbacks between them that might lead to tipping dynamics

Potential carbon footprint reduction for reclaimed asphalt pavement innovations : Lca methodology, best available technology, and near-future reduction potential

The carbon footprints of asphalt mixtures with increasing reclaimed asphalt pavement (RAP) content were estimated using a life-cycle assessment methodology. Three asphalt mixtures with different applications and technical requirements, namely porous asphalt (PA), stone mastic asphalt (SMA), and asphalt concrete (AC), were included. The technology leaps needed to achieve asphalt mixtures containing up to 93% RAP were modelled. Mixtures containing up to 57% RAP were hot-mix asphalts (175 °C), while mixtures containing more RAP were produced at 135 °C and 105 °C. The energy requirements and their respective carbon footprints were calculated based on the heat capacity of the aggregates, RAP, and other bituminous materials. Furthermore, the effects of changing the country’s electricity mix were also evaluated. A potential carbon footprint reduction of between 55% and 64% was found for one tonne of asphalt containing 93% RAP and produced at 105 °C compared to the 0% RAP mixture produced at 175 °C. Considering the uncertainty of this technology at its early stage of development, the reduction could be as low as 45% or as high as 79%. Changing the electricity mix to one that is likely to be implemented until 2030 in the Netherlands further reduces the footprint by 10%.</p

Future European shale gas life-cycle GHG emissions for electric power generation in comparison to other fossil fuels

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