CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES PROVIDED BY SEASONAL CLIMATE FORECASTS: A LITERATURE REVIEW

Use of seasonal climate forecasts is a rapidly evolving area. Effective research and application of climate forecasts require close cooperation between scientists in diverse disciplines and decision makers. Successful collaboration requires all players to at least partially understand each other's perspectives. Issues associated with seasonal forecasts, through a selected review of both physical and social sciences literature, is presented. Our hope is that the review will improve research in this area by stimulating further collaborations.climate forecasts, review, value of information, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, D80, D81, O30, Q00,

Testing the Validity of Standard Representative Agent Import Demand Systems

Demand and Price Analysis, International Relations/Trade,

Rate and timing of cortical responses driven by separate sensory channels

The sense of touch comprises multiple sensory channels that each conveys characteristic signals during interactions with objects. These neural signals must then be integrated in such a way that behaviorally relevant information about the objects is preserved. To understand the process of integration, we implement a simple computational model that describes how the responses of neurons in somatosensory cortex—recorded from awake, behaving monkeys—are shaped by the peripheral input, reconstructed using simulations of neuronal populations that reproduce natural spiking responses in the nerve with millisecond precision. First, we find that the strength of cortical responses is driven by one population of nerve fibers (rapidly adapting) whereas the timing of cortical responses is shaped by the other (Pacinian). Second, we show that input from these sensory channels is integrated in an optimal fashion that exploits the disparate response behaviors of different fiber types

Salt tolerance in barley

Non-Peer Reviewe

Real-time monitoring of bubbles and crashes

Given the financial and economic damage that can be caused by the collapse of an asset price bubble, it is of critical importance to rapidly detect the onset of a crash once a bubble has been identified. We develop a real-time monitoring procedure for detecting a crash episode in a time series. We adopt an autoregressive framework, with the bubble and crash regimes modelled by explosive and stationary dynamics respectively. The first stage of our approach is to monitor for the presence of a bubble; conditional on having detected a bubble, we monitor for a crash in real time as new data emerges. Our crash detection procedure employs a statistic based on the different signs of the means of the first differences associated with explosive and stationary regimes, and critical values are obtained using a training period, over which no bubble or crash is assumed to occur. Monte Carlo simulations suggest that our recommended procedure has a well-controlled false positive rate during a bubble regime, while also allowing very rapid detection of a crash when one occurs. Application to the US housing market demonstrates the efficacy of our procedure in rapidly detecting the house price crash of 2006

Flexible modeling of dependence in volatility processes

This paper proposes a novel stochastic volatility model that draws from the exist- ing literature on autoregressive stochastic volatility models, aggregation of autoregres- sive processes, and Bayesian nonparametric modelling to create a stochastic volatility model that can capture long range dependence. The volatility process is assumed to be the aggregate of autoregressive processes where the distribution of the autoregressive coefficients is modelled using a flexible Bayesian approach. The model provides insight into the dynamic properties of the volatility. An efficient algorithm is defined which uses recently proposed adaptive Monte Carlo methods. The proposed model is applied to the daily returns of stocks

Correlates of light and moderate-to-vigorous objectively measured physical activity in four-year-old children

Correlates of physical activity (PA) are hypothesized to be context and behaviour specific, but there is limited evidence of this in young children. The aim of the current study is to investigate associations between personal, social and environmental factors and objectively measured light and moderate-to-vigorous PA (LPA and MVPA, respectively) in four-year-old children.Cross-sectional data were used from the Southampton Women's Survey, a UK population-based longitudinal study. Four-year old children (n = 487, 47.0% male) had valid PA data assessed using accelerometry (Actiheart) and exposure data collected with a validated maternal questionnaire (including data on child personality, family demographics, maternal behaviour, rules and restrictions, and perceived local environment). Linear regression modelling was used to analyse associations with LPA and MVPA separately, interactions with sex were explored.LPA minutes were greater in children whose mothers reported more PA (vs. inactive: regression coefficient±standard error: 6.70±2.94 minutes), and without other children in the neighbourhood to play with (-6.33±2.44). MVPA minutes were greater in children with older siblings (vs. none: 5.81±2.80) and those whose mothers used active transport for short trips (vs. inactive: 6.24±2.95). Children accumulated more MVPA in spring (vs. winter: 9.50±4.03) and, in boys only, less MVPA with availability of other children in the neighbourhood (-3.98±1.70).Young children's LPA and MVPA have differing associations with a number of social and environmental variables. Interventions targeting PA promotion in young children outside of formal care settings should consider including intensity specific factors

A Note on Flux Induced Superpotentials in String Theory

Non-vanishing fluxes in M-theory and string theory compactifications induce a superpotential in the lower dimensional theory. Gukov has conjectured the explicit form of this superpotential. We check this conjecture for the heterotic string compactified on a Calabi-Yau three-fold as well as for warped M-theory compactifications on Spin(7) holonomy manifolds, by performing a Kaluza-Klein reduction.Comment: 19 pages, no figure