An Extended Empirical Saddlepoint Approximation for Intractable Likelihoods

The challenges posed by complex stochastic models used in computational ecology, biology and genetics have stimulated the development of approximate approaches to statistical inference. Here we focus on Synthetic Likelihood (SL), a procedure that reduces the observed and simulated data to a set of summary statistics, and quantifies the discrepancy between them through a synthetic likelihood function. SL requires little tuning, but it relies on the approximate normality of the summary statistics. We relax this assumption by proposing a novel, more flexible, density estimator: the Extended Empirical Saddlepoint approximation. In addition to proving the consistency of SL, under either the new or the Gaussian density estimator, we illustrate the method using two examples. One of these is a complex individual-based forest model for which SL offers one of the few practical possibilities for statistical inference. The examples show that the new density estimator is able to capture large departures from normality, while being scalable to high dimensions, and this in turn leads to more accurate parameter estimates, relative to the Gaussian alternative. The new density estimator is implemented by the esaddle R package, which can be found on the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN)

Machine learning algorithms to infer trait-matching and predict species interactions in ecological networks

Ecologists have long suspected that species are more likely to interact if their traits match in a particular way. For example, a pollination interaction may be more likely if the proportions of a bee's tongue fit a plant's flower shape. Empirical estimates of the importance of trait‐matching for determining species interactions, however, vary significantly among different types of ecological networks. Here, we show that ambiguity among empirical trait‐matching studies may have arisen at least in parts from using overly simple statistical models. Using simulated and real data, we contrast conventional generalized linear models (GLM) with more flexible Machine Learning (ML) models (Random Forest, Boosted Regression Trees, Deep Neural Networks, Convolutional Neural Networks, Support Vector Machines, naïve Bayes, and k‐Nearest‐Neighbor), testing their ability to predict species interactions based on traits, and infer trait combinations causally responsible for species interactions. We found that the best ML models can successfully predict species interactions in plant–pollinator networks, outperforming GLMs by a substantial margin. Our results also demonstrate that ML models can better identify the causally responsible trait‐matching combinations than GLMs. In two case studies, the best ML models successfully predicted species interactions in a global plant–pollinator database and inferred ecologically plausible trait‐matching rules for a plant–hummingbird network from Costa Rica, without any prior assumptions about the system. We conclude that flexible ML models offer many advantages over traditional regression models for understanding interaction networks. We anticipate that these results extrapolate to other ecological network types. More generally, our results highlight the potential of machine learning and artificial intelligence for inference in ecology, beyond standard tasks such as image or pattern recognition

Production of Polarized Vector Mesons off Nuclei

Using the light-cone QCD dipole formalism we investigate manifestations of color transparency (CT) and coherence length (CL) effects in electroproduction of longitudinally (L) and transversally (T) polarized vector mesons. Motivated by forthcoming data from the HERMES experiment we predict both the A and Q^2 dependence of the L/T- ratios, for rho^0 mesons produced coherently and incoherently off nuclei. For an incoherent reaction the CT and CL effects add up and result in a monotonic A dependence of the L/T-ratio at different values of Q^2. On the contrary, for a coherent process the contraction of the CL with Q^2 causes an effect opposite to that of CT and we expect quite a nontrivial A dependence, especially at Q^2 >> m_V^2.Comment: Revtex 24 pages and 14 figure

Infrared generation in low-dimensional semiconductor heterostructures via quantum coherence

A new scheme for infrared generation without population inversion between subbands in quantum-well and quantum-dot lasers is presented and documented by detailed calculations. The scheme is based on the simultaneous generation at three frequencies: optical lasing at the two interband transitions which take place simultaneously, in the same active region, and serve as the coherent drive for the IR field. This mechanism for frequency down-conversion does not rely upon any ad hoc assumptions of long-lived coherences in the semiconductor active medium. And it should work efficiently at room temperature with injection current pumping. For optimized waveguide and cavity parameters, the intrinsic efficiency of the down-conversion process can reach the limiting quantum value corresponding to one infrared photon per one optical photon. Due to the parametric nature of IR generation, the proposed inversionless scheme is especially promising for long-wavelength (far- infrared) operation.Comment: 4 pages, 1 Postscript figure, Revtex style. Replacement corrects a printing error in the authors fiel

VLT and ACS observations of RDCS J1252.9-2927: dynamical structure and galaxy populations in a massive cluster at z=1.237

We present results from an extensive spectroscopic survey, carried out with VLT FORS, and from an extensive multiwavelength imaging data set from the HST Advanced Camera for Surveys and ground based facilities, of the cluster of galaxies RDCS J1252.9-2927. We have spectroscopically confirmed 38 cluster members in the redshift range 1.22 < z < 1.25. A cluster median redshift of z=1.237 and a rest-frame velocity dispersion of 747^{+74}_{-84} km/s are obtained. Using the 38 confirmed redshifts, we were able to resolve, for the first time at z > 1, kinematic structure. The velocity distribution, which is not Gaussian at the 95% confidence level, is consistent with two groups that are also responsible for the projected east-west elongation of the cluster. The groups are composed of 26 and 12 galaxies with velocity dispersions of 486^{+47}_{-85} km/s and 426^{+57}_{-105} km/s, respectively. The elongation is also seen in the intracluster gas and the dark matter distribution. This leads us to conclude that RDCS J1252.9-2927 has not yet reached a final virial state. We extend the analysis of the color-magnitude diagram of spectroscopic members to more than 1 Mpc from the cluster center. The scatter and slope of non-[OII]-emitting cluster members in the near-IR red sequence is similar to that seen in clusters at lower redshift. Furthermore, most of the galaxies with luminosities greater than ~ K_s*+1.5 do not show any [OII], indicating that these more luminous, redder galaxies have stopped forming stars earlier than the fainter, bluer galaxies. Our observations provide detailed dynamical and spectrophotometric information on galaxies in this exceptional high-redshift cluster, delivering an in-depth view of structure formation at this epoch only 5 Gyr after the Big Bang.Comment: 29 pages. 16 figures. ApJ accepted. Tables 2,3 and 5, figure 1 and the full figure 5 will be available in the paper and electronic editions from ApJ. v2: minor corrections to the abstract and text to match the Journal's versio

Siberian plants shift their phenology in response to climate change

Siberia has undergone dramatic climatic changes due to global warming in recent decades. Yet, the ecological responses to these climatic changes are still poorly understood due to a lack of data. Here, we use a unique data set from the Russian ‘Chronicles of Nature’ network to analyse the long-term (1976–2018) phenological shifts in leaf out, flowering, fruiting and senescence of 67 common Siberian plant species. We find that Siberian boreal forest plants advanced their early season (leaf out and flowering) and mid-season (fruiting) phenology by −2.2, −0.7 and −1.6 days/decade, and delayed the onset of senescence by 1.6 days/decade during this period. These mean values, however, are subject to substantial intraspecific variability, which is partly explained by the plants' growth forms. Trees and shrubs advanced leaf out and flowering (−3.1 and −3.3. days/decade) faster than herbs (−1 day/decade), presumably due to the more direct exposure of leaf and flower buds to ambient air for the woody vegetation. For senescence, we detected a reverse pattern: stronger delays in herbs (2.1 days/decade) than in woody plants (1.0–1.2 days/decade), presumably due to the stronger effects of autumn frosts on the leaves of herbs. Interestingly, the timing of fruiting in all four growth forms advanced at similar paces, from 1.4 days/decade in shrubs to 1.7 days/decade in trees and herbs. Our findings point to a strong, yet heterogeneous, response of Siberian plant phenology to recent global warming. Furthermore, the results highlight that species- and growth form-specific differences among study species could be used to identify plants particularly at risk of decline due to their low adaptive capacity or a loss of synchronization with important interaction partners

HST/ACS weak lensing analysis of the galaxy cluster RDCS 1252.9-2927 at z=1.24

We present a weak lensing analysis of one of the most distant massive galaxy cluster known, RDCS 1252.9-2927 at z=1.24, using deep images from the Advanced Camera for Survey (ACS) on board the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). By taking advantage of the depth and of the angular resolution of the ACS images, we detect for the first time at z>1 a clear weak lensing signal in both the i (F775W) and z (F850LP) filters. We measure a 5-\sigma signal in the i band and a 3-\sigma signal in the shallower z band image. The two radial mass profiles are found to be in very good agreement with each other, and provide a measurement of the total mass of the cluster inside a 1Mpc radius of M(<1Mpc) = (8.0 +/- 1.3) x 10^14 M_\odot in the current cosmological concordance model h =0.70, \Omega_m=0.3, \Omega_\Lambda=0.7, assuming a redshift distribution of background galaxies as inferred from the Hubble Deep Fields surveys. A weak lensing signal is detected out to the boundary of our field (3' radius, corresponding to 1.5Mpc at the cluster redshift). We detect a small offset between the centroid of the weak lensing mass map and the brightest cluster galaxy, and we discuss the possible origin of this discrepancy. The cumulative weak lensing radial mass profile is found to be in good agreement with the X-ray mass estimate based on Chandr and XMM-Newton observations, at least out to R_500=0.5Mpc.Comment: 38 pages, ApJ in press. Full resolution images available at http://www.eso.org/~prosati/RDCS1252/Lombardi_etal_accepted.pd

A lattice calculation of vector meson couplings to the vector and tensor currents using chirally improved fermions

We present a quenched lattice calculation of $f_V^\perp/f_V$, the coupling of vector mesons to the tensor current normalized by the vector meson decay constant. The chirally improved lattice Dirac operator, which allows us to reach small quark masses, is used. We put emphasis on analyzing the quark mass dependence of $f_V^\perp/f_V$ and find only a rather weak dependence. Our results at the $\rho$ and $\phi$ masses agree well with QCD sum rule calculations and those from previous lattice studies.Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures, one sentence remove

The Morphology - Density Relation in z ~ 1 Clusters

We measure the morphology--density relation (MDR) and morphology-radius relation (MRR) for galaxies in seven z ~ 1 clusters that have been observed with the Advanced Camera for Surveys on board the Hubble Space Telescope. Simulations and independent comparisons of ourvisually derived morphologies indicate that ACS allows one to distinguish between E, S0, and spiral morphologies down to zmag = 24, corresponding to L/L* = 0.21 and 0.30 at z = 0.83 and z = 1.24, respectively. We adopt density and radius estimation methods that match those used at lower redshift in order to study the evolution of the MDR and MRR. We detect a change in the MDR between 0.8 < z < 1.2 and that observed at z ~ 0, consistent with recent work -- specifically, the growth in the bulge-dominated galaxy fraction, f_E+SO, with increasing density proceeds less rapidly at z ~ 1 than it does at z ~ 0. At z ~ 1 and density <= 500 galaxies/Mpc^2, we find = 0.72 +/- 0.10. At z ~ 0, an E+S0 population fraction of this magnitude occurs at densities about 5 times smaller. The evolution in the MDR is confined to densities >= 40 galaxies/Mpc^2 and appears to be primarily due to a deficit of S0 galaxies and an excess of Spiral+Irr galaxies relative to the local galaxy population. The Elliptical fraction - density relation exhibits no significant evolution between z = 1 and z = 0. We find mild evidence to suggest that the MDR is dependent on the bolometric X-ray luminosity of the intracluster medium. Implications for the evolution of the disk galaxy population in dense regions are discussed in the context of these observations.Comment: 30 pages, 18 figures. Accepted for publication in ApJ. Full resolution versions of figs 2,3,6,8 are available at http://www.stsci.edu/~postman/mdr_figure

Evolution in the Cluster Early-type Galaxy Size-Surface Brightness Relation at z =~ 1

We investigate the evolution in the distribution of surface brightness, as a function of size, for elliptical and S0 galaxies in the two clusters RDCS J1252.9-2927, z=1.237 and RX J0152.7-1357, z=0.837. We use multi-color imaging with the Advanced Camera for Surveys on the Hubble Space Telescope to determine these sizes and surface brightnesses. Using three different estimates of the surface brightnesses, we find that we reliably estimate the surface brightness for the galaxies in our sample with a scatter of < 0.2 mag and with systematic shifts of \lesssim 0.05 mag. We construct samples of galaxies with early-type morphologies in both clusters. For each cluster, we use a magnitude limit in a band which closely corresponds to the rest-frame B, to magnitude limit of M_B = -18.8 at z=0, and select only those galaxies within the color-magnitude sequence of the cluster or by using our spectroscopic redshifts. We measure evolution in the rest-frame B surface brightness, and find -1.41 \+/- 0.14 mag from the Coma cluster of galaxies for RDCS J1252.9-2927 and -0.90 \+/- 0.12 mag of evolution for RX J0152.7-1357, or an average evolution of (-1.13 \+/- 0.15) z mag. Our statistical errors are dominated by the observed scatter in the size-surface brightness relation, sigma = 0.42 \+/- 0.05 mag for RX J0152.7-1357 and sigma = 0.76 \+/- 0.10 mag for RDCS J1252.9-2927. We find no statistically significant evolution in this scatter, though an increase in the scatter could be expected. Overall, the pace of luminosity evolution we measure agrees with that of the Fundamental Plane of early-type galaxies, implying that the majority of massive early-type galaxies observed at z =~ 1 formed at high redshifts.Comment: Accepted in ApJ, 16 pages in emulateapj format with 15 eps figures, 6 in colo