Facilitating the elicitation of beliefs for use in Bayesian Belief modelling

Expert opinion is increasingly being used to inform Bayesian Belief Networks, in particular to define the conditional dependencies modelled by the graphical structure. The elicitation of such expert opinion remains a major challenge due to both the quantity of information required and the ability of experts to quantify subjective beliefs effectively. In this work, we introduce a method designed to initialise conditional probability tables based on a small number of simple questions that capture the overall shape of a conditional probability distribution before enabling the expert to refine their results in an efficient way. These methods have been incorporated into a software Application for Conditional probability Elicitation (ACE), freely available at https://github.com/KirstyLHassall/ACE Hassall (2019

Clinical and cost effectiveness of single stage compared with two stage revision for hip prosthetic joint infection (INFORM):pragmatic, parallel group, open label, randomised controlled trial

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether patient reported outcomes improve after single stage versus two stage revision surgery for prosthetic joint infection of the hip, and to determine the cost effectiveness of these procedures. DESIGN: Pragmatic, parallel group, open label, randomised controlled trial. SETTING: High volume tertiary referral centres or orthopaedic units in the UK (n=12) and in Sweden (n=3), recruiting from 1 March 2015 to 19 December 2018. PARTICIPANTS: 140 adults (aged ≥18 years) with a prosthetic joint infection of the hip who required revision (65 randomly assigned to single stage and 75 to two stage revision). INTERVENTIONS: A computer generated 1:1 randomisation list stratified by hospital was used to allocate participants with prosthetic joint infection of the hip to a single stage or a two stage revision procedure. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary intention-to-treat outcome was pain, stiffness, and functional limitations 18 months after randomisation, measured by the Western Ontario and McMasters Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) score. Secondary outcomes included surgical complications and joint infection. The economic evaluation (only assessed in UK participants) compared quality adjusted life years and costs between the randomised groups. RESULTS: The mean age of participants was 71 years (standard deviation 9) and 51 (36%) were women. WOMAC scores did not differ between groups at 18 months (mean difference 0.13 (95% confidence interval -8.20 to 8.46), P=0.98); however, the single stage procedure was better at three months (11.53 (3.89 to 19.17), P=0.003), but not from six months onwards. Intraoperative events occurred in five (8%) participants in the single stage group and 20 (27%) in the two stage group (P=0.01). At 18 months, nine (14%) participants in the single stage group and eight (11%) in the two stage group had at least one marker of possible ongoing infection (P=0.62). From the perspective of healthcare providers and personal social services, single stage revision was cost effective with an incremental net monetary benefit of £11 167 (95% confidence interval £638 to £21 696) at a £20 000 per quality adjusted life years threshold (£1.0; $1.1; €1.4). CONCLUSIONS: At 18 months, single stage revision compared with two stage revision for prosthetic joint infection of the hip showed no superiority by patient reported outcome. Single stage revision had a better outcome at three months, fewer intraoperative complications, and was cost effective. Patients prefer early restoration of function, therefore, when deciding treatment, surgeons should consider patient preferences and the cost effectiveness of single stage surgery. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN registry ISRCTN10956306.RD&E staff can access the full-text of this article by clicking on the 'Additional Link' above and logging in with NHS OpenAthens if prompted.Unknow

Middle and Late Pleistocene environmental history of the Marsworth area, south-central England

To elucidate the Middle and Late Pleistocene environmental history of south-central England, we report the stratigraphy, sedimentology, palaeoecology and geochronology of some deposits near the foot of the Chiltern Hills scarp at Marsworth, Buckinghamshire. The Marsworth site is important because its sedimentary sequences contain a rich record of warm stages and cold stages, and it lies close to the Anglian glacial limit. Critical to its history are the origin and age of a brown pebbly silty clay (diamicton) previously interpreted as weathered till. The deposits described infill a river channel incised into chalk bedrock. They comprise clayey, silty and gravelly sediments, many containing locally derived chalk and some with molluscan, ostracod and vertebrate remains. Most of the deposits are readily attributed to periglacial and fluvial processes, and some are dated by optically stimulated luminescence to Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 6. Although our sedimentological data do not discriminate between a glacial or periglacial interpretation of the diamicton, amino-acid dating of three molluscan taxa from beneath it indicates that it is younger than MIS 9 and older than MIS 5e. This makes a glacial interpretation unlikely, and we interpret the diamicton as a periglacial slope deposit. The Pleistocene history reconstructed for Marsworth identifies four key elements: (1) Anglian glaciation during MIS 12 closely approached Marsworth, introducing far-travelled pebbles such as Rhaxella chert and possibly some fine sand minerals into the area. (2) Interglacial environments inferred from fluvial sediments during MIS 7 varied from fully interglacial conditions during sub-stages 7e and 7c, cool temperate conditions during sub-stage 7b or 7a, temperate conditions similar to those today in central England towards the end of the interglacial, and cool temperate conditions during sub-stage 7a. (3) Periglacial activity during MIS 6 involved thermal contraction cracking, permafrost development, fracturing of chalk bedrock, fluvial activity, slopewash, mass movement and deposition of loess and coversand. (4) Fully interglacial conditions during sub-stage 5e led to renewed fluvial activity, soil formation and acidic weathering

Associations of β-Amyloid and Vascular Burden With Rates of Neurodegeneration in Cognitively Normal Members of the 1946 British Birth Cohort

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the independent and interactive associations of amyloid-β (Aβ) and white matter hyperintensity volume (WMHV) - a marker of presumed cerebrovascular disease (CVD) - with rates of neurodegeneration, and to examine the contributions of APOE ε4 and vascular risk measured at different stages of adulthood in cognitively normal members of the 1946 British birth cohort. METHODS: Participants underwent brain MRI and florbetapir-Aβ positron emission tomography as part of Insight 46, an observational population-based study. Changes in whole brain, ventricular and hippocampal volume were directly measured from baseline and repeat volumetric T1 MRI using the Boundary Shift Integral. Linear regression was used to test associations with: baseline Aβ deposition; baseline WMHV; APOE ε4; and office-based Framingham heart study-cardiovascular risk scores (FHS-CVS) and systolic blood pressure (BP) at ages 36, 53 and 69 years. RESULTS: 346 cognitively normal participants (mean [SD] age at baseline scan 70.5 [0.6] years; 48% female) had high-quality T1 MRI data from both time-points (mean [SD] scan interval 2.4 [0.2] years). Being Aβ positive at baseline was associated with 0.87 ml/year faster whole brain atrophy (95% CI 0.03, 1.72), 0.39 ml/year greater ventricular expansion (95% CI 0.16, 0.64) and 0.016 ml/year faster hippocampal atrophy (95% CI 0.004, 0.027), while each 10 ml additional WMHV at baseline was associated with 1.07 ml/year faster whole brain atrophy (95% CI 0.47, 1.67), 0.31 ml/year greater ventricular expansion (95% CI 0.13, 0.60) and 0.014 ml/year faster hippocampal atrophy (95% CI 0.006, 0.022). These contributions were independent and there was no evidence that Aβ and WMHV interacted in their effects. There were no independent associations of APOE ε4 with rates of neurodegeneration after adjusting for Aβ status and WMHV, and no clear relationships between FHS-CVS or systolic BP and rates of neurodegeneration when assessed across the whole sample, nor any evidence that they acted synergistically with Aβ. CONCLUSIONS: Aβ and presumed CVD have distinct and additive effects on rates of neurodegeneration in cognitively normal elderly. These findings have implications for the use of MRI measures as biomarkers of neurodegeneration and emphasize the importance of risk management and early intervention targeting both pathways

Rates of cortical thinning in Alzheimer's disease signature regions associate with vascular burden but not with β-amyloid status in cognitively normal adults at age 70

BACKGROUND: Consistent patterns of reduced cortical thickness have been identified in early Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, the pathological factors that influence rates of cortical thinning within these AD signature regions remain unclear. METHODS: Participants were from the Insight 46 substudy of the MRC National Survey of Health and Development (NSHD; 1946 British birth cohort), a prospective longitudinal cohort study. Linear regression was used to examine associations of baseline cerebral β-amyloid (Aβ) deposition, measured using florbetapir positron emission tomography, and baseline white matter hyperintensity volume (WMHV) on MRI, a marker of cerebral small vessel disease, with subsequent longitudinal changes in AD signature cortical thickness quantified from baseline and repeat MRI (mean [SD] interval 2.4 [0.2] years). RESULTS: In a population-based sample of 337 cognitively normal older white adults (mean [SD] age at baseline 70.5 [0.6] years; 48.1% female), higher global WMHV at baseline related to faster subsequent rates of cortical thinning in both AD signature regions (~0.15%/year faster per 10 mL additional WMHV), whereas baseline Aβ status did not. Among Aβ positive participants (n=56), there was some evidence that greater global Aβ standardised uptake value ratio at baseline related to faster cortical thinning in the AD signature Mayo region, but this did not reach statistical significance (p=0.08). CONCLUSIONS: Cortical thinning within AD signature regions may develop via cerebrovascular pathways. Perhaps reflecting the age of the cohort and relatively low prevalence of Aβ-positivity, robust Aβ-related differences were not detected. Longitudinal follow-up incorporating additional biomarkers will allow assessment of how these relationships evolve closer to expected dementia onset

Associations of β-Amyloid and Vascular Burden With Rates of Neurodegeneration in Cognitively Normal Members of the 1946 British Birth Cohort.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The goals of this work were to quantify the independent and interactive associations of β-amyloid (Aβ) and white matter hyperintensity volume (WMHV), a marker of presumed cerebrovascular disease (CVD), with rates of neurodegeneration and to examine the contributions of APOE ε4 and vascular risk measured at different stages of adulthood in cognitively normal members of the 1946 British Birth Cohort. METHODS: Participants underwent brain MRI and florbetapir-Aβ PET as part of Insight 46, an observational population-based study. Changes in whole-brain, ventricular, and hippocampal volume were directly measured from baseline and repeat volumetric T1 MRI with the boundary shift integral. Linear regression was used to test associations with baseline Aβ deposition, baseline WMHV, APOE ε4, and office-based Framingham Heart Study Cardiovascular Risk Score (FHS-CVS) and systolic blood pressure (BP) at ages 36, 53, and 69 years. RESULTS: Three hundred forty-six cognitively normal participants (mean [SD] age at baseline scan 70.5 [0.6] years; 48% female) had high-quality T1 MRI data from both time points (mean [SD] scan interval 2.4 [0.2] years). Being Aβ positive at baseline was associated with 0.87-mL/y faster whole-brain atrophy (95% CI 0.03, 1.72), 0.39-mL/y greater ventricular expansion (95% CI 0.16, 0.64), and 0.016-mL/y faster hippocampal atrophy (95% CI 0.004, 0.027), while each 10-mL additional WMHV at baseline was associated with 1.07-mL/y faster whole-brain atrophy (95% CI 0.47, 1.67), 0.31-mL/y greater ventricular expansion (95% CI 0.13, 0.60), and 0.014-mL/y faster hippocampal atrophy (95% CI 0.006, 0.022). These contributions were independent, and there was no evidence that Aβ and WMHV interacted in their effects. There were no independent associations of APOE ε4 with rates of neurodegeneration after adjustment for Aβ status and WMHV, no clear relationships between FHS-CVS or systolic BP and rates of neurodegeneration when assessed across the whole sample, and no evidence that FHS-CVS or systolic BP acted synergistically with Aβ. DISCUSSION: Aβ and presumed CVD have distinct and additive effects on rates of neurodegeneration in cognitively normal elderly. These findings have implications for the use of MRI measures as biomarkers of neurodegeneration and emphasize the importance of risk management and early intervention targeting both pathways

Basic science232. Certolizumab pegol prevents pro-inflammatory alterations in endothelial cell function

Background: Cardiovascular disease is a major comorbidity of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and a leading cause of death. Chronic systemic inflammation involving tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNF) could contribute to endothelial activation and atherogenesis. A number of anti-TNF therapies are in current use for the treatment of RA, including certolizumab pegol (CZP), (Cimzia ®; UCB, Belgium). Anti-TNF therapy has been associated with reduced clinical cardiovascular disease risk and ameliorated vascular function in RA patients. However, the specific effects of TNF inhibitors on endothelial cell function are largely unknown. Our aim was to investigate the mechanisms underpinning CZP effects on TNF-activated human endothelial cells. Methods: Human aortic endothelial cells (HAoECs) were cultured in vitro and exposed to a) TNF alone, b) TNF plus CZP, or c) neither agent. Microarray analysis was used to examine the transcriptional profile of cells treated for 6 hrs and quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) analysed gene expression at 1, 3, 6 and 24 hrs. NF-κB localization and IκB degradation were investigated using immunocytochemistry, high content analysis and western blotting. Flow cytometry was conducted to detect microparticle release from HAoECs. Results: Transcriptional profiling revealed that while TNF alone had strong effects on endothelial gene expression, TNF and CZP in combination produced a global gene expression pattern similar to untreated control. The two most highly up-regulated genes in response to TNF treatment were adhesion molecules E-selectin and VCAM-1 (q 0.2 compared to control; p > 0.05 compared to TNF alone). The NF-κB pathway was confirmed as a downstream target of TNF-induced HAoEC activation, via nuclear translocation of NF-κB and degradation of IκB, effects which were abolished by treatment with CZP. In addition, flow cytometry detected an increased production of endothelial microparticles in TNF-activated HAoECs, which was prevented by treatment with CZP. Conclusions: We have found at a cellular level that a clinically available TNF inhibitor, CZP reduces the expression of adhesion molecule expression, and prevents TNF-induced activation of the NF-κB pathway. Furthermore, CZP prevents the production of microparticles by activated endothelial cells. This could be central to the prevention of inflammatory environments underlying these conditions and measurement of microparticles has potential as a novel prognostic marker for future cardiovascular events in this patient group. Disclosure statement: Y.A. received a research grant from UCB. I.B. received a research grant from UCB. S.H. received a research grant from UCB. All other authors have declared no conflicts of interes