An environmentally responsive reciprocal replicating network

The financial support for this work was provided by EaStCHEM and the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (Grant EP/K503162/1).A reciprocal replication system is constructed from four building blocks, A , B , C , and D , which react in a pairwise manner through either a 1,3-dipolar cycloaddition or the condensation reaction between an amine and an aldehyde to create two templates, trans-TAB and TCD. These templates are equipped with complementary recognition sites—two carboxylic acids (trans-TAB) or two 4,6-dimethylamidopyridines (TCD)—that enable each template to direct the formation of its complementary partner through two mutually-reinforcing cross-catalytic pathways, in which the templates trans-TAB or TCD preorganize the appropriate building blocks within two catalytically-active ternary complexes: [C•D•trans-TAB] and [A•B•TCD]. The template-directed processes within these complexes generate a heteroduplex [trans-TAB•TCD], which is shown to possess significant stability through kinetic simulations and fitting. As a consequence, the individual cross-catalytic pathways perform more efficiently in template-directed experiments when the concentration of the template being formed is below that of the template added as instruction. Comprehensive analysis of the system in which A , B , C , and D are mixed together directly, using a series of 1H NMR spectroscopic kinetic experiments, demonstrates that the behavior of the reciprocal system is more than the simple sum of its parts—as part of the interconnected network, the product of each reaction clearly directs the fabrication of its reciprocal partner, facilitating both higher rates of formation for both templates and improved diastereoselectivity for trans-TAB. A simple change in experimental conditions (from dry to "wet" CDCl3) demonstrates the sensitivity of the replication pathways within the network to the reaction environment, which leads to a >10-fold increase in the contribution of a new minimal self-replicator, trans-TAB*, to the replication network.PostprintPeer reviewe

Uncertainties in projecting climate-change impacts in marine ecosystems

Projections of the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems are a key prerequisite for the planning of adaptation strategies, yet they are inevitably associated with uncertainty. Identifying, quantifying, and communicating this uncertainty is key to both evaluating the risk associated with a projection and building confidence in its robustness. We review how uncertainties in such projections are handled in marine science. We employ an approach developed in climate modelling by breaking uncertainty down into (i) structural (model) uncertainty, (ii) initialization and internal variability uncertainty, (iii) parametric uncertainty, and (iv) scenario uncertainty. For each uncertainty type, we then examine the current state-of-the-art in assessing and quantifying its relative importance. We consider whether the marine scientific community has addressed these types of uncertainty sufficiently and highlight the opportunities and challenges associated with doing a better job. We find that even within a relatively small field such as marine science, there are substantial differences between subdisciplines in the degree of attention given to each type of uncertainty. We find that initialization uncertainty is rarely treated explicitly and reducing this type of uncertainty may deliver gains on the seasonal-to-decadal time-scale. We conclude that all parts of marine science could benefit from a greater exchange of ideas, particularly concerning such a universal problem such as the treatment of uncertainty. Finally, marine science should strive to reach the point where scenario uncertainty is the dominant uncertainty in our projections

Épisodes d’inactivité et revenus criminels dans une trajectoire de délinquance

L’instabilité de l’activité criminelle dans le temps est déjà bien documentée. On connaît toutefois peu les circonstances qui expliquent ces variations à court terme. Une meilleure connaissance de ces facteurs est souhaitable puisqu’il est possible que les transitions et les changements à court terme précèdent les points tournants des carrières criminelles. Les conditions qui rendent compte d’une interruption temporaire des activités peuvent, par exemple, contribuer à expliquer un désistement définitif. L’étude se fonde sur les trajectoires de 172 délinquants impliqués dans des crimes à but lucratif et analyse les variations mensuelles de leurs revenus criminels ainsi que les épisodes d’inactivité criminelle à l’intérieur d’une période fenêtre de 36 mois. La méthode des calendriers d’histoire de vie combinée aux modèles hiérarchiques permet d’examiner conjointement le rôle de facteurs statiques (les caractéristiques individuelles des sujets) et dynamiques (les circonstances de vie). Les résultats mettent en évidence l’importance des événements qui marquent le style de vie des délinquants et des paramètres qui caractérisent l’engagement criminel dans la compréhension des variations dans les trajectoires à l’étude. Ils soulignent également l’importance de la finalité derrière les activités criminelles pour expliquer la décision des délinquants de cesser temporaire leurs activités illicites