MadingleyR: An R package for mechanistic ecosystem modelling

Abstract: Aim: Mechanistic general ecosystem models are used to explore fundamental ecological dynamics and to assess possible consequences of anthropogenic and natural disturbances on ecosystems. The Madingley model is a mechanistic general ecosystem model (GEM) that simulates a coherent global ecosystem, consisting of photo‐autotrophic and heterotrophic life, based on fundamental ecological processes. The C++ implementation of the Madingley model delivers fast computational performance, but it (a) limits the userbase to researchers that are familiar with the intricacies of C++ programming, (b) has limited possibility to change model settings and provide model outputs required to address specific research questions, and (c) has limited reproducibility of simulation experiments. The aim of this paper is to present an R package of the Madingley model to aid with increasing the accessibility and flexibility of the model. Innovation: The MadingleyR R package streamlines the installation procedure and supports all major operating systems. MadingleyR enables users to combine multiple consecutive simulations, making case study specific modifications to MadingleyR objects along the way. Default input files are available from the package and study‐specific inputs can be easily loaded from the R environment. MadingleyR also provides functions to plot and summarize MadingleyR outputs. We provide a comprehensive description of the MadingleyR functions and workflow. We also demonstrate the applicability of the MadingleyR package using three case studies: (a) simulating the cascading effects of the loss of mega‐herbivores on food‐web structure, (b) simulating the impacts of increased land‐use intensity on the total biomass of different feeding guilds by restricting the total vegetation biomass available for feeding and (c) simulating the impacts of an intensive land‐use scenario on a continental scale. Main conclusions: The MadingleyR package provides direct accessibility to simulations with the mechanistic ecosystem model Madingley and is flexible in its application without a loss in performance

Shortfalls and Solutions for Meeting National and Global Conservation Area Targets

Governments have committed to conserving greater than or equal to 17% of terrestrial and greater than or equal to 10% of marine environments globally, especially areas of particular importance for biodiversity through ecologically representative Protected Area (PA) systems or other area-based conservation measures , while individual countries have committed to conserve 3-50% of their land area. We estimate that PAs currently cover 14.6% of terrestrial and 2.8% of marine extent, but 59-68% of ecoregions, 77-78% of important sites for biodiversity, and 57% of 25,380 species have inadequate coverage. The existing 19.7 million km super(2) terrestrial PA network needs only 3.3 million km super(2) to be added to achieve 17% terrestrial coverage. However, it would require nearly doubling to achieve, cost-efficiently, coverage targets for all countries, ecoregions, important sites, and species. Poorer countries have the largest relative shortfalls. Such extensive and rapid expansion of formal PAs is unlikely to be achievable. Greater focus is therefore needed on alternative approaches, including community- and privately managed sites and other effective area-based conservation measures

Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales

A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios

To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land-use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e., nature's contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected biodiversity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)-SSP1xRCP2.6, SSP3xRCP6.0, SSP5xRCP8.6-to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenario selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the biodiversity and ecosystem services models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modeling project will support the ongoing global assessment of IPBES, strengthen ties between IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and modeling processes, advise the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on its development of a post-2020 strategic plans and conservation goals, and inform the development of a new generation of nature-centred scenarios

Simulating social-ecological systems: the Island Digital Ecosystem Avatars (IDEA) consortium

Abstract Systems biology promises to revolutionize medicine, yet human wellbeing is also inherently linked to healthy societies and environments (sustainability). The IDEA Consortium is a systems ecology open science initiative to conduct the basic scientific research needed to build use-oriented simulations (avatars) of entire social-ecological systems. Islands are the most scientifically tractable places for these studies and we begin with one of the best known: Moorea, French Polynesia. The Moorea IDEA will be a sustainability simulator modeling links and feedbacks between climate, environment, biodiversity, and human activities across a coupled marine-terrestrial landscape. As a model system, the resulting knowledge and tools will improve our ability to predict human and natural change on Moorea and elsewhere at scales relevant to management/conservation actions

Impact Assessment of Free-Roaming Dog Population Management by CNVR in Greater Bangkok

A high-intensity catch, neuter, vaccinate and return (CNVR) intervention was used over 5 years to manage the free-roaming dog population of Greater Bangkok, using nearly 300,000 CNVR operations across six provinces. An evaluation was conducted using multiple methods to assess the impact of this intervention, including clinical data, an observational street survey, an online attitude survey and reported cases of dog rabies confirmed with laboratory testing. The evaluation found evidence of a reduction in free-roaming dog density over time (24.7% reduction over 5 years), a reduction in dog rabies cases (average reduction of 5.7% rabies cases per month) and an improvement in dog-human relationships (a 39% increase per year in free-roaming dogs with visible signs of ownership or care and a perception of less trouble with free-roaming dogs in districts benefiting from CNVR). The CNVR intervention appears to have been effective at reducing the current free-roaming dog population and minimizing one future source of free-roaming dogs by limiting breeding of dogs accessible on the streets. However, there is evidence that other sources of free-roaming dogs exist, presumed to be predominately abandoned or lost owned dogs that were previously inaccessible to the CNVR intervention because they were ordinarily confined or living outside the project area. Hence, fully effective dog population management will require further interventions targeting owned dogs in addition to this CNVR effort

Ecosystems: time to model all life on Earth

To help transform our understanding of the biosphere, ecologists — like climate scientists — should simulate whole ecosystems, argue Drew Purves and colleagues