An assessment of the global supply, recycling, stocks in use and market price for titanium using the WORLD7 model

This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).The change in supply, price, extractable resources and recycling with time for titanium was assessed with the WORLD7 model. Demand for titanium is expected to increase in the future, and several future scenarios were investigated. The model is mass balance based and simulates the flow terms past from 1850 to 2023 and the flows in the future from 2024 to 2200. The recoverable mineral resources have been estimated at about 1800 million ton of titanium element after a review of the literature. Only 500 million ton of titanium mineral resources count as high grade, the rest is found in ores with low or very low content. Our findings are that for all scenarios, the WORLD7 model simulations shows that there will be no significant shortages in the short term (before 2050), but in the longer term there will be scarcity issues appearing after 2075 for both metal and oxide supply. If demand increase more than anticipated by market analysts, scarcity may develop decades earlier. The model makes estimates for titanium oxide and titanium metal demand, extraction, supply, recycling, losses and the development of major stocks in society.publishedVersio

Dynamical Modelling of the Global Cement Production and Supply System, Assessing Climate Impacts of Different Future Scenarios

This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons CC BY license, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.The global cement and concrete demand, production, supply, and the general global market price was modelled using the WORLD7 model for different future scenarios. The model was used to analyze some possible measures to reduce the climate impact of cement production. The main result from this study is that three factors may bring regulatory limitations to be imposed on cement production. The contribution of CO2 to the atmosphere, the amount of iron used in construction and the use of energy in production are the main factors that may cause limitations. Cement accounts for about 8% of the global CO2 emissions and energy use at present, and this fraction is projected by the simulations to continue to increase. To reduce CO2 emissions from cement production, ending fossil fuel use for calcination, combined with a change towards using mortar as an alternative for making concrete should be considered. Our conclusion is that the long-term limitation for cement production is the availability of carbon-free energy, and the availability of iron for reinforcement bars. Eliminating the use of hydrocarbons for cement calcination may reduce the future the contribution from cement by 38%. Eliminating the use of hydrocarbons for calcination combined with substituting cement with mortar to 50%, the contribution to the future global average temperature increase is reduced by 62%. Eliminating the use of hydrocarbons for calcination combined with substituting cement with mortar to 90% is a reduction by 90% in the contribution from cement.publishedVersio

Defining a Conceptual Model for Market Mechanisms in Food Supply Chains, and Parameterizing Price Functions for Coffee, Wheat, Corn, Soybeans, and Beef

The contribution of the study presented in this paper is twofold. Firstly, to add to the present body of knowledge of food supply and demand model dynamics and the associated economics, based on system analysis. It describes a new approach for dealing with price mechanisms in models based on causal links and dynamic feedbacks. It has been applied to some main global food commodities, but has also been used for metals and materials in a parallel study. The price mechanism is described in a way to be useful for other modelers dealing with price mechanism, and it enables modelers to make dynamic price endogenous in models. Secondly, it presents price function curves for different food commodities, parameterizing a fundamental property of the commodity trade

System Dynamics Modelling of the Global Extraction, Supply, Price, Reserves, Resources and Environmental Losses of Mercury

Publisher's version (útgefin grein)How mercury flows from geological sources to society and to the environment was modelled for this study. The industrial dynamics of mercury was modelled and included in the integrated assessment model WORLD7. The simulated mercury losses were used as input for a simplified global model for environmental pollution. The outputs were analysed and used to assess mercury pollution amounts and supply to society. In fossil fuels, there are a potential stock of 2 million tons in coal and other hydrocarbons, and 450,000 tons of that could be released to the environment if the fossil fuels are all to be burned. Such release would potentially cause major environmental damage and a significant human health risk. The simulations suggest that environmental mercury flows may peak in 2025, and slowly decline as mercury gets immobilized in nature. The simulations show that the pollution from technical use is eliminated by putting the 2013 Minimata Convention into effect, but that environmental pollution from fossil fuels combustion and from environmental re-emissions will remain a significant problem for the next decades.Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz, Bau und Reaktorsicherheit. Funding number: FKZ 3712 93 102Peer Reviewe

The art of Gamification; Teaching Sustainability and System Thinking by Pervasive Game Development

This is an open access article licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License, and originally published in The Electronic Journal of e-Learning. You can access the article on publisher's website by following this link: http://www.ejel.org/volume14/issue3In 2013 Hedmark University College conducted a research project where students from a game development project/study program developed and tested a Pervasive Game for learning as part of a class in System Thinking. The overall game goal was to teach Sustainability through System Thinking, and to give the students a real world experience with their game;. It was tested on 5th and 7th graders in elementary school, spending one school day in each of the classes. This article focuses on the design of the project: how the game was developed, how the children played it and how research was designed and data collected

Assessing Aspects of Cadmium Supply, Recycling and Environmental Pollution with Respect to Future Photovoltaic Technology Demands and Environmental Policy Goals

Cadmium has appeared as an important element for certain types of solar cells and rechargeable batteries. It is possible that there will be a large increase in demand for technical cadmium in the future. This is in confict with environmental policies for phasing out cadmium from any technical use worldwide because of its great toxicity to humans. Cadmium toxicity is on par with that of mercury, and data suggests that cadmium exposure has no safe lower limit. There is no shortage of cadmium to extract, and no shortage from lack of cadmium available in the future zinc fow is to be expected. There is a global treaty to ban it from all use. The Integrated Assessment Model WORLD7 was used to assess different aspects of the supply of cadmium to society. It would be possible to produce at least 250,000 tons/ year; in reality, the 2023 production is about 24,000 tons/year. The price is about 3500–4500 $/ton and is volatile. Because there is a United Nations agreed global policy to phase out cadmium from all use, demand for cadmium will soon not be met, and there will be an actual shortage of cadmium for any use, including photovoltaic technologies and semiconductors. This is good news for nature, but bad news for the CdTe and CIGS types of photovoltaic panels. It is estimated that only 25% of the planned future capacity may not be available unless good substitutes for cadmium can be found.Assessing Aspects of Cadmium Supply, Recycling and Environmental Pollution with Respect to Future Photovoltaic Technology Demands and Environmental Policy GoalspublishedVersio

Using the Kaban Lakes Integrated Assessment Model for Investigating Potential Levels of Antibiotic Pollution of the Nizhniy Kaban and Sredniy Kaban Lakes

Publisher's version (útgefin grein)The Kaban Lakes Integrated Assessment Model (KLIAM) was enhanced in order to assess the possible content of antibiotics in the Kaban lakes, located within the city borders of Kazan City, Tatarstan Republic in the Russian Federation, and potential for adverse environmental effects. The Kaban Lakes Integrated Assessment Model simulations suggest that the concentrations in the Nizhniy Kaban lake and Sredniy Kaban lake may exceed the predicted no effect concentration (PNEC) and low-risk limits set by EU and the WHO. Many missing data could be assumed or approximated, and simulation runs were conducted. The results are consistent with other global studies in terms of average concentrations observed elsewhere in rivers and lakes. The results suggest that the study should be followed up with lake water analysis and an assessment of antibiotic loads to the Kaban lakes. It is concluded that the results are too uncertain to initiate any policy action at the present moment and that an assessment supported by measurements would be warranted.Open Access funding provided by Inland Norway University Of Applied Sciences. It is a part of the overall strategy of the development of the WORLD7 model, supported by the SIMRESS grant (funded by the German Federal Ministry for Environment and the German Environmental Protection Agency (FKZ 3712 93 102).Peer Reviewe

Modelling Global Nickel Mining, Supply, Recycling, Stocks-in-Use and Price Under Different Resources and Demand Assumptions for 1850–2200

Producción CientíficaThe long-term supply of nickel to society was assessed with the WORLD7 model for the global nickel cycle, using new estimates of nickel reserves and resources, indicating that the best estimate of the ultimately recoverable resources for nickel is in the range of 650–720 million ton. This is significantly larger than earlier estimates. The extractable amounts were stratified by extraction cost and ore grade in the model, making them extractable only after price increases and cost reductions. The model simulated extraction, supply, ore grades, and market prices. The assessment predicts future scarcity and supply problems after 2100 for nickel. The model reconstructs observed extraction, supply and market prices for the period 1850–2020, and is used to simulate development for the period 2020–2200. The quality of nickel ore has decreased significantly from 1850 to 2020 and will continue to do so in the future according to the simulated predictions from the WORLD7 model. For nickel, extraction rates are suggested to reach their maximum value in 2050, and that most primary nickel resources will have been exhausted by 2130. After 2100, the supply per capita for nickel will decline towards exhaustion if business-as-usual is continuing. This will be manifested as reduced supply and increased prices. The peak year can be delayed by a maximum of 100 years if recycling rates are improved significantly and long before scarcity is visible.Open Access funding provided by Inland Norway University Of Applied Sciences. This study contributed to the SimRess project (Models, potential and long-term scenarios for resource efficiency), funded by the German Federal Ministry for Environment and the German Environmental Protection Agency (FKZ 3712 93 102). Dr. Ullrich Lorenz is a project officer at the German Environmental Protection Agency (UBA) at Dessau. This study contributed to the EU H2020 LOCOMOTION Project. The project coordinator is Luis Javier Miguel Gonzales at Valladolid University, Valladolid, Spain

Dynamical Modelling of the Global Cement Production and Supply System, Assessing Climate Impacts of Different Future Scenarios

Producción CientíficaThe global cement and concrete demand, production, supply, and the general global market price was modelled using the WORLD7 model for different future scenarios. The model was used to analyze some possible measures to reduce the climate impact of cement production. The main result from this study is that three factors may bring regulatory limitations to be imposed on cement production. The contribution of CO2 to the atmosphere, the amount of iron used in construction and the use of energy in production are the main factors that may cause limitations. Cement accounts for about 8% of the global CO2 emissions and energy use at present, and this fraction is projected by the simulations to continue to increase. To reduce CO2 emissions from cement production, ending fossil fuel use for calcination, combined with a change towards using mortar as an alternative for making concrete should be con- sidered. Our conclusion is that the long-term limitation for cement production is the availability of carbon-free energy, and the availability of iron for reinforcement bars. Eliminating the use of hydrocarbons for cement calcination may reduce the future the contribution from cement by 38%. Eliminating the use of hydrocarbons for calcination combined with substituting cement with mortar to 50%, the contribution to the future global average temperature increase is reduced by 62%. Eliminating the use of hydrocarbons for calcination combined with substituting cement with mortar to 90% is a reduction by 90% in the contribution from cement.This study contributed to the EU H2020 LOCOMOTION Project. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement 821105/H2020-LC-CLA-2018-2. Project coordinator is Dr. Luis Javier Miguel Gonzales at University of Valladolid, Spain. Dr. Deniz Koca at the Centre for Environment and Climate Research at Lund University, Sweden, was involved in much of the earlier development of the precursor WORLD6 that eventually became WORLD7

On the long-term sustainability of copper, zinc and lead supply, using a system dynamics model

Publisher's version (útgefin grein).The long-term supply sustainability of copper, zinc and lead was assessed. Copper will not run into physcal scarcity in the future, but increased demand and decreased resource quality will cause significant price increases. The copper price is suggested to increase significantly in the coming decades. A similar situation applies for zinc and lead with soft scarcity and increased prices for zinc. The total supply of copper reaches a maximum 2030–2045, zinc 2030–2050 and lead 2025-2030. The copper supply per person and year and decline after 2130, and the copper stock-in-use reaches a maximum in 2050 and decline afterwards. The zinc supply per person per year reach a maximum in 2100 and decline after 2100, and the zinc stock-in use shows a similar pattern. The lead supply per person reach a plateau in 1985, and decline after 2070, whereas the lead stock-in-use reach a plateau in 2080 and decline after 2100. For copper, zinc and lead, scarcity will mainly be manifested as increased metal price, with feedbacks on demand. The predicted price increase will cause recycling to increase in the future. The supply situation for copper would be much improved if the recycling of copper could be strongly promoted through policy means, as well as it would work well to limit the price increases predicted under business-as-usual. Considering the importance of these metals for society, it is essential to set adequate policies for resource efficiency and resource conservation for society.This study contributed to the SimRess project (Models, potential andlong-term scenarios for resource efficiency),funded by the GermanFederal Ministry for Environment and the German EnvironmentalProtection Agency (FKZ 3712 93 102). Dr. Ullrich Lorenz is projectofficer at the German Environmental Protection Agency (UBA). Onbehalf of all authors, the corresponding author states that there is noconflict of interest.Peer Reviewe