A framework for the simulation of regional decadal variability for agricultural and other applications

The SimGen software, including ancillary files and scripts, can be found at http://iri.columbia.edu/~amg/CCAFS/simgen/Climate prediction on decadal time scales is currently an active area of research. Although there are indications that predictions from dynamical models may have skill in some regions, assessment of this skill is still underway, and reliable model-based predictions of regional ‘near-term’ climate change, particularly for terrestrial regions, have not yet been demonstrated. Given the absence of such forecasts, synthetic data sequences that capture the statistical properties of observed near-term climate variability have potential value. Incorporation of a climate change component in such sequences can aid in estimating likelihoods for a range of climatic stresses, perhaps lying outside the range of past experience. Such simulations can be used to drive agricultural, hydrological or other application models, enabling resilience testing of adaptation or decision systems. The use of statistically-based methods enables the efficient generation of a large ensemble of synthetic sequences as well as the creation of well-defined probabilistic risk estimates. In this report we discuss procedures for the generation of synthetic climate sequences that incorporate both the statistics of observed variability and expectations regarding future regional climate change. Model fitting and simulation are conditioned by requirements particular to the decadal climate problem. A method for downscaling annualized simulations to the daily time step while preserving both spatial and temporal subannual statistical properties is presented and other possible methods discussed. A ‘case-study’ realization of the proposed framework is described

Changing Face of the Extrasolar Giant Planet, HD 209458b

High-resolution atmospheric flow simulations of the tidally-locked extrasolar giant planet, HD 209458b, show large-scale spatio-temporal variability. This is in contrast to the simple, permanent day/night (i.e., hot/cold) picture. The planet's global circulation is characterized by a polar vortex in motion around each pole and a banded structure corresponding to ~3 broad zonal (east-west) jets. For very strong jets, the circulation-induced temperature difference between moving hot and cold regions can reach up to ~1000 K, suggesting that atmospheric variability could be observed in the planet's spectral and photometric signatures.Comment: 6 pages, 1 ps figure, 2 low-res color figures (JPEG). Figure 3 updated. Contact authors for hi-res versions of color figures. Accepted for publication in ApJ

A Microfluidic Device for Kinetic Optimization of Protein Crystallization and In Situ Structure Determination

The unprecedented economies of scale and unique mass transport properties of microfluidic devices made them viable nano-volume protein crystallization screening platforms. However, realizing the full potential of microfluidic crystallization requires complementary technologies for crystal optimization and harvesting. In this paper, we report a microfluidic device which provides a link between chip-based nanoliter volume crystallization screening and structure analysis through “kinetic optimization” of crystallization reactions and in situ structure determination. Kinetic optimization through systematic variation of reactor geometry and actuation of micromechanical valves is used to screen a large ensemble of kinetic trajectories that are not practical with conventional techniques. Using this device, we demonstrate control over crystal quality, reliable scale-up from nanoliter volume reactions, facile harvesting and cryoprotectant screening, and protein structure determination at atomic resolution from data collected in-chip

On Signatures of Atmospheric Features in Thermal Phase Curves of Hot Jupiters

Turbulence is ubiquitous in Solar System planetary atmospheres. In hot Jupiter atmospheres, the combination of moderately slow rotation and thick pressure scale height may result in dynamical weather structures with unusually large, planetary-size scales. Using equivalent-barotropic, turbulent circulation models, we illustrate how such structures can generate a variety of features in the thermal phase curves of hot Jupiters, including phase shifts and deviations from periodicity. Such features may have been spotted in the recent infrared phase curve of HD 189733b. Despite inherent difficulties with the interpretation of disk-integrated quantities, phase curves promise to offer unique constraints on the nature of the circulation regime present on hot Jupiters.Comment: 22 pages, 6 figures, 1 table, accepted for publication in Ap

Immune factors preceding diagnosis of glioma: a Prostate Lung Colorectal Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial nested case-control study.

BackgroundEpidemiological studies of adult glioma have identified genetic and environmental risk factors, but much remains unclear. The aim of the current study was to evaluate anthropometric, disease-related, and prediagnostic immune-related factors for relationship with glioma risk.MethodsWe conducted a nested case-control study among the intervention arm of the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer (PLCO) Screening Trial. One hundred and twenty-four glioma cases were identified and each matched to four controls. Baseline characteristics were collected at enrollment and were evaluated for association with glioma status. Serum specimens were collected at yearly intervals and were analyzed for immune-related factors including TGF-β1, TNF-α, total IgE, and allergen-specific IgE. Immune factors were evaluated at baseline in a multivariate conditional logistic regression model, along with one additional model that incorporated the latest available measurement.ResultsA family history of glioma among first-degree relatives was associated with increased glioma risk (OR = 4.41, P = .002). In multivariate modeling of immune factors at baseline, increased respiratory allergen-specific IgE was inversely associated with glioma risk (OR for allergen-specific IgE > 0.35 PAU/L: 0.59, P = .03). A logistic regression model that incorporated the latest available measurements found a similar association for allergen-specific IgE (P = .005) and showed that elevated TGF-β1 was associated with increased glioma risk (P-value for trend <.0001).ConclusionThe results from this prospective prediagnostic study suggest that several immune-related factors are associated with glioma risk. The association observed for TGF-β1 when sampling closer to the time of diagnosis may reflect the nascent brain tumor's feedback on immune function

Thirty Years Of Wetland Conservation In Montana

In 1985 the Montana Legislature authorized the Department of Fish, Wildlife and Parks (FWP) to use funds from migratory bird hunting licenses “…for the protection, conservation, and development of wetlands in Montana”, thereby creating the Migratory Bird Wetland Program (a.k.a. State Duck Stamp Program).  Wetlands and their associated uplands provide critical nesting, foraging, brood-rearing, and migration habitat for waterfowl and other wetland-associated wildlife.  Wetlands also provide critical ecosystem functions important for our communities and wildlife, including water purification, flood control, and groundwater recharge.  FWP’s Migratory Bird Wetland Program is dedicated to conserving wetlands and associated uplands to benefit Montana’s wildlife, especially migratory birds, to enhance consumptive and non-consumptive recreational opportunities, and to maintain wetland systems for Montana’s citizens.  Since many of the opportunities were on private land, it was essential for FWP personnel to learn how best to work with farmers and ranchers to benefit their operations as well as wildlife and wetland values.  In addition to the partnership of private landowners, many other agencies and organizations have been partners in habitat projects.  The program has adapted to changing opportunities and conservation needs over time.  We will chronicle the past 30 years of program implementation, showcase successes, and discuss a philosophy for continued wetland conservation into the future

Atmospheric neutron measurements with the SONTRAC science model

–The SOlar Neutron TRACking (SONTRAC) telescope was originally developed to measure the energy spectrum and incident direction of neutrons produced in solar flares, in the energy range 20 - 250 MeV. While developed primarily for solar physics, the SONTRAC detector may be employed in virtually any application requiring both energy measurement and imaging capabilities. The SONTRAC Science Model (SM) is presently being operated at the University of New Hampshire (UNH) as a ground-based instrument to investigate the energy spectrum, zenith and azimuth angle dependence of the cosmic-ray induced sea-level atmospheric neutron flux. SONTRAC measurements are based on the non-relativistic double scatter of neutrons off ambient protons within a block of scintillating fibers. Using the n-p elastic double-scatter technique, it is possible to uniquely determine the neutron’s energy and direction on an event-by-event basis. The 3D SM consists of a cube of orthogonal plastic scintillating fiber layers with 5 cm sides, read out by two CCD cameras. Two orthogonal imaging chains allow full 3D reconstruction of scattered proton tracks

Phase behavior of a confined nano-droplet in the grand-canonical ensemble: the reverse liquid-vapor transition

The equilibrium density distribution and thermodynamic properties of a Lennard-Jones fluid confined to nano-sized spherical cavities at constant chemical potential was determined using Monte Carlo simulations. The results describe both a single cavity with semipermeable walls as well as a collection of closed cavities formed at constant chemical potential. The results are compared to calculations using classical Density Functional Theory (DFT). It is found that the DFT calculations give a quantitatively accurate description of the pressure and structure of the fluid. Both theory and simulation show the presence of a ``reverse'' liquid-vapor transition whereby the equilibrium state is a liquid at large volumes but becomes a vapor at small volumes.Comment: 13 pages, 8 figures, to appear in J. Phys. : Cond. Mat

Interactive radio’s promising role in climate information services: Farm Radio International concept paper

This paper focuses on how interactive radio programming can increase the reach of weather and seasonal climate information and related advisory services. In doing so, they can enhance small-scale farmers’ capacity to make optimal decisions and manage risks based on a better understanding of probabilistic seasonal forecasts. The objective is to outline strategy that could vastly and affordably expand the number of small-scale farmers that are reached by and benefit from weather and climate information and related advisory services. Building on Farm Radio International’s (FRI) pioneering African Farm Radio Research Initiative (AFRRI), we assess the opportunities for interactive radio to provide integrated climate and advisory information while increasing farmers’ equitable access to salient and legitimate programming. We describe a number of practical strategies that can be used to make radio-based climate communication interactive, outline elements of a successful interactive radio service targeting rural communities, and discuss costs and other issues required for sustainability

Metabolome-Informed Microbiome Analysis Refines Metadata Classifications and Reveals Unexpected Medication Transfer in Captive Cheetahs.

Even high-quality collection and reporting of study metadata in microbiome studies can lead to various forms of inadvertently missing or mischaracterized information that can alter the interpretation or outcome of the studies, especially with nonmodel organisms. Metabolomic profiling of fecal microbiome samples can provide empirical insight into unanticipated confounding factors that are not possible to obtain even from detailed care records. We illustrate this point using data from cheetahs from the San Diego Zoo Safari Park. The metabolomic characterization indicated that one cheetah had to be moved from the non-antibiotic-exposed group to the antibiotic-exposed group. The detection of the antibiotic in this second cheetah was likely due to grooming interactions with the cheetah that was administered antibiotics. Similarly, because transit time for stool is variable, fecal samples within the first few days of antibiotic prescription do not all contain detected antibiotics, and the microbiome is not yet affected. These insights significantly altered the way the samples were grouped for analysis (antibiotic versus no antibiotic) and the subsequent understanding of the effect of the antibiotics on the cheetah microbiome. Metabolomics also revealed information about numerous other medications and provided unexpected dietary insights that in turn improved our understanding of the molecular patterns on the impact on the community microbial structure. These results suggest that untargeted metabolomic data provide empirical evidence to correct records and aid in the monitoring of the health of nonmodel organisms in captivity, although we also expect that these methods may be appropriate for other social animals, such as cats.IMPORTANCE Metabolome-informed analyses can enhance omics studies by enabling the correct partitioning of samples by identifying hidden confounders inadvertently misrepresented or omitted from carefully curated metadata. We demonstrate here the utility of metabolomics in a study characterizing the microbiome associated with liver disease in cheetahs. Metabolome-informed reinterpretation of metagenome and metabolome profiles factored in an unexpected transfer of antibiotics, preventing misinterpretation of the data. Our work suggests that untargeted metabolomics can be used to verify, augment, and correct sample metadata to support improved grouping of sample data for microbiome analyses, here for nonmodel organisms in captivity. However, the techniques also suggest a path forward for correcting clinical information in microbiome studies more broadly to enable higher-precision analyses