Simple Statistical Probabilistic Forecasts of the winter NAO

The variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a key aspect of Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation and has a profound impact upon the weather of the surrounding landmasses. Recent success with dynamical forecasts predicting the winter NAO at lead times of a few months has the potential to deliver great socioeconomic impacts. Here, a linear regression model is found to provide skillful predictions of the winter NAO based on a limited number of statistical predictors. Identified predictors include El Niño, Arctic sea ice, Atlantic SSTs, and tropical rainfall. These statistical models can show significant skill when used to make out-of-sample forecasts, and the method is extended to produce probabilistic predictions of the winter NAO. The statistical hindcasts can achieve similar levels of skill to state-of-the-art dynamical forecast models, although out-of-sample predictions are less skillful, albeit over a small period. Forecasts over a longer out-of-sample period suggest there is true skill in the statistical models, comparable with that of dynamical forecasting models. They can be used both to help evaluate and to offer insight into the sources of predictability and limitations of dynamical models

Drivers and potential predictability of summer time North Atlantic polar front jet variability

The variability of the North Atlantic polar front jet stream is crucial in determining summer weather around the North Atlantic basin. Recent extreme summers in western Europe and North America have highlighted the need for greater understanding of this variability, in order to aid seasonal forecasting and mitigate societal, environmental and economic impacts. Here we find that simple linear regression and composite models based on a few predictable factors are able to explain up to 40% of summertime jet stream speed and latitude variability from 1955 onwards. Regression models covering the earlier part of the twentieth century are much less effective, presumably due to decreased availability of data, and increased uncertainty in observational reanalyses. Sea surface temperature (SST) forcings impact predominantly on jet speed, whereas solar and cryospheric forcings appear to influence jet latitude. The cryospheric associations come from the previous autumn, suggesting the survival of an ice-induced signal through the winter season, whereas solar influences lead jet variability by a few years. Wavelet coherence analysis identifies that associations fluctuate over the study period but it is not clear whether this is just internal variability or actual non-stationarity. Finally we identify areas for future research

Hyperspectral chemical imaging reveals spatially varied degradation of polycarbonate urethane (PCU) biomaterials

Hyperspectral chemical imaging (HCI) is an emerging technique which combines spectroscopy with imaging. Unlike traditional point spectroscopy, which is used in the majority of polymer biomaterial degradation studies, HCI enables the acquisition of spatially localised spectra across the surface of a material in an objective manner. Here, we demonstrate that attenuated total reflectance Fourier transform infra-red (ATR-FTIR) HCI reveals spatial variation in the degradation of implantable polycarbonate urethane (PCU) biomaterials. It is also shown that HCI can detect possible defects in biomaterial formulation or specimen production; these spatially resolved images reveal regional or scattered spatial heterogeneity. Further, we demonstrate a map sampling method, which can be used in time-sensitive scenarios, allowing for the investigation of degradation across a larger component or component area. Unlike imaging, mapping does not produce a contiguous image, yet grants an insight into the spatial heterogeneity of the biomaterial across a larger area. These novel applications of HCI demonstrate its ability to assist in the detection of defective manufacturing components and lead to a deeper understanding of how a biomaterial’s chemical structure changes due to implantation. Statement of Signifance The human body is an aggressive environment for implantable devices and their biomaterial components. Polycarbonate urethane (PCU) biomaterials in particular were investigated in this study. Traditionally one or a few points on the PCU surface are analysed using ATR-FTIR spectroscopy. However the selection of acquisition points is susceptible to operator bias and critical information can be lost. This study utilises hyperspectral chemical imaging (HCI) to demonstrate that the degradation of a biomaterial varies spatially. Further, HCI revealed spatial variations of biomaterials that were not subjected to oxidative degradation leading to the possibility of HCI being used in the assessment of biomaterial formulation and/or component production

Empirisch abgeleitete Empfehlungen für den Auf- und Ausbau von Tageshospizen in Deutschland – Ergebnisse einer Delphi-Befragung mit Expert:innen

Introduction: A needs-based and patient-oriented hospice and palliative care also includes day hospices as a specialised semi-inpatient care offer. The establishment and development of these facilities in Germany has been rather unsystematic. In order to ensure quality and adequacy of these structures, research is needed. Methods: A Delphi consensus study was conducted online from November 2022 to February 2023 aiming at generating recommendations for the development and expansion of day hospices in Germany. For each recommendation, the participants indicated on a four-point verbal rating scale how much they agreed upon a) the relevance and b) the feasibility of the recommendation. Items were considered consented when 80 % of the participants (strongly) agreed with the recommendation regarding both criteria. If no consensus was reached, the recommendations were revised according to the participants’ free text comments and presented in the next Delphi round. Descriptive analyses were applied. Results: A total of 64 experts participated in the first Delphi round and 44 in the second. In round 1, 34 recommendations and in round 2 six recommendations were consented. The final set contains a total of 40 recommendations: 18 on the tasks of day hospices, 13 on cooperation, 7 on funding, and 2 on public relations. Discussion: Recommendations for the development and expansion of day hospices in Germany were developed. Due to their highly rated feasibility, the recommendations should be directly transferable into care practice. It remains to be seen to what extent they will be taken into account in the renegotiation of the framework agreement for day hospices. Conclusion: The Delphi-consented recommendations provide a basis to guide action in the currently very dynamic development of hospice work and palliative care in Germany.Hintergrund: Zu einer bedarfsgerechten, patient:innenenorientierten Hospiz- und Palliativversorgung zählen auch Tageshospize als spezialisierte ambulante Versorgungsangebote. Aufbau und Entwicklung von Tageshospizen in Deutschland erfolgten bislang individuell und eigeninitiativ. Zur langfristigen Sicherstellung der Qualität und Bedarfsangemessenheit von Tageshospizen bedarf es wissenschaftlicher Erkenntnisse und Grundlagen. Methode: Von November 2022 bis Februar 2023 erfolgte eine deutschlandweite Online-Delphi-Befragung mit Expert:innen, in der Empfehlungen für den Auf- und Ausbau von Tageshospizen in Deutschland konsentiert wurden. Teilnehmende gaben zu jeder Empfehlung auf einer vierstufigen Rangskala an, wie sehr sie a) der Relevanz der Empfehlung und b) der Umsetzbarkeit der Empfehlung im Versorgungsalltag (nicht) zustimmen. Konsens wurde erreicht, wenn 80 % der Teilnehmenden einer Empfehlung in beiden Kriterien (eher) zustimmten. Wurde kein Konsens erreicht, wurden die Empfehlungen basierend auf Freitextkommentaren der Teilnehmenden angepasst und in der darauffolgenden Runde erneut zur Abstimmung gestellt. Die Analysen erfolgten deskriptiv. Ergebnisse: An der ersten Befragungsrunde beteiligten sich 64 und an der zweiten 44 Expert:innen. In Runde 1 wurden 34 und in Runde 2 sechs Empfehlungen konsentiert. Das finale Set enthält insgesamt 40 Empfehlungen: 18 zu Aufgaben, 13 zur Zusammenarbeit, 7 zur Finanzierung und 2 zur Öffentlichkeitsarbeit von Tageshospizen. Diskussion: Es konnten konkrete Empfehlungen zum Auf- und Ausbau von Tageshospizen in Deutschland entwickelt werden. Die Empfehlungen sollten aufgrund ihrer hoch bewerteten Umsetzbarkeit direkt in die Versorgungspraxis überführbar sein. Inwiefern die Empfehlungen in der Neuverhandlung der Rahmenvereinbarung für Tageshospize berücksichtigt werden, gilt es abzuwarten. Schlussfolgerung: Die vorliegenden Empfehlungen können handlungsweisend bei der aktuell sehr dynamischen Weiterentwicklung der Hospizarbeit und Palliativversorgung in Deutschland genutzt werden

Soccer and homosexuality: the conflicts that lie within the affective game of the coach-adolescent athlete relationship

Discussions regarding homosexuality within a sports context are mediated by emotional nuances, especially in the world of soccer, where practitioners are required to have attributes such as strength, masculinity and aggressiveness. As a consequence, this work aimed to analyze the symbolic representation of homosexual relationships between adolescent soccer players and their coaches; and, furthermore, to understand the intention behind homoerotic relationships that are established between members of the management team and its players. In this study, researchers used the life history methodology, with participation from three adolescent athletes, ages 14, 15 and 16, and three former athletes, ages 26, 28 and 45, who we called speakers. Based on the collection and analysis of research participants’ testimonies, homosexual relations were found to have occurred between athletes and coaches, or between athletes and other members of the management team, as a part of a “social contract” that is exclusively linked to their professional objectives. These relationships appear to be purely objective; authentic affective links are absent, due apparently to the transient nature of the athletes in these groups. Too, this context is usually marked by the athlete’s physical and emotional vulnerability, and the agreements he makes within this context are accompanied with moral dilemmas, because such adolescents idealize the coach as a paternal archetype.“Futebol e homossexualidade: Os conflitos que se encontram dentro do jogo afetivo da relação treinador-atleta adolescente.” As discussões a respeito da homossexualidade no contexto esportivo são mediadas por nuanças emocionais, especialmente no mundo do futebol que exige de seus praticantes atributos de força, virilidade e agressividade. Por este motivo este trabalho teve como objetivos diagnosticar existência de relações homossexuais entre atletas adolescentes da modalidade de futebol e seus técnicos e sua representação simbólica e ainda, compreender a intencionalidade das relações homoafetivas que se estabelecem entre componentes da equipe diretiva e os jogadores. Esta pesquisa é de natureza qualitativa e a técnica adotada foi a “história de vida” e a participação de três atletas adolescentes em atividade, com idade de 14, 15 e 16 anos e três ex-atletas profissionais, com idades 26, 28 e 45 anos serviram de base metodológica. A partir da análise e tratamento dos depoimentos verificou-se que ocorreram relações homossexuais nas categorias de base envolvendo técnico e atleta, ou com outros membros da equipe diretiva, como parte dos contratos sociais, ligados exclusivamente a objetivos profissionais. Estas relações parecem ser puramente objetais, não parecendo existir vínculos afetivos duradouros, aparentemente, devido à natureza transitória de atletas nesses grupos. Também, nesses ambientes, muitas vezes marcados pela vulnerabilidade física e emocional dos atletas, os acertos para as relações homossexuais são permeadas por dilemas morais, tendo em vista que os atletas adolescentes idealizam o treinador como o arquétipo paterno ideal.“El fútbol y la homosexualidad: Los conflictos que se encuentran dentro del juego afectivo de la relación atleta-entrenador de los adolescentes.” Las discusiones sobre la homosexualidad en contexto deportivo están mediadas por matices emocionales, sobre todo en el mundo del fútbol que exige a sus jugadores atributos como la fuerza, la virilidad y los jugadores. En este estudio, los investigadores utilizaron la metodología de la historia de vida, con la participación de tres atletas adolescentes, con 14, 15 y 16 años, y tres ex atletas con 26, 28 y 45 años, que llamamos ‘oradores’. Basado en la recogida y análisis de testimonios de participantes en la investigación, se encontró que las relaciones homosexuales que se han producido entre los atletas y entrenadores, o entre atletas y otros miembros del equipo de gestión, son como parte de un “contrato social” que está vinculado exclusivamente a sus objetivos profesionales. Estas relaciones parecen ser solamente como un objeto; porque a veces no hay vínculos afectivos auténticos, debido aparentemente a la naturaleza transitoria de los atletas en estos grupos. Demasiado, este contexto es generalmente marcado por la vulnerabilidad física y emocional del deportista, y los acuerdos que hace dentro de este contexto se acompañan con dilemas morales, debido a que tales adolescentes idealizan el entrenador como un arquetipo paterno. la agresividad. Por lo tanto, este estudio tuvo como objetivo diagnosticar la existencia de relaciones homosexuales entre adolescentes atletas de fútbol y sus entrenadores y la representación simbólica de estas relaciones. También comprender la intencionalidad de las relaciones homoafetivas que se intercambian entre algunos componentes del equipo directivo y(undefined

T-Cell Immune Dysregulation and Mortality in Women with Human Immunodeficiency Virus

Summary: In women with HIV, higher activation and exhaustion of CD4+ T cells were associated with risk of non-HIV-related mortality during a median of 13.3 years of follow-up, independent of baseline demographic, behavioral, HIV-related, and cardiometabolic factors and longitudinal HIV disease progression. Background: Dysregulation of adaptive immunity is a hallmark of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection that persists on antiretroviral therapy (ART). Few long-term prospective studies have related adaptive immunity impairments to mortality in HIV, particularly in women. Methods: Among 606 women with HIV in the Women's Interagency HIV Study, peripheral blood mononuclear cells collected from 2002 to 2005 underwent multiparameter flow cytometry. Underlying cause of death was ascertained from the National Death Index up to 2018. We examined associations of CD4+ and CD8+ T-cell activation (%CD38+HLA-DR+), senescence (%CD57+CD28-), exhaustion (%PD-1+), and nonactivation/normal function (%CD57-CD28+) with natural-cause, HIV-related, and non-HIV-related mortality. Results: At baseline, median participant age was 41, and 67% were on ART. Among 100 deaths during a median of 13.3 years follow-up, 90 were natural-cause (53 non-HIV-related, 37 HIV-related). Higher activation and exhaustion of CD4+ T cells were associated with risk of natural-cause and non-HIV-related mortality, adjusting for age, demographic, behavioral, HIV-related, and cardiometabolic factors at baseline. Additional adjustment for time-varying viral load and CD4+ T-cell count did not attenuate these associations. CD8+ T-cell markers were not associated with any outcomes adjusting for baseline factors. Conclusions: Persistent CD4+ T-cell activation and exhaustion may contribute to excess long-term mortality risk in women with HIV, independent of HIV disease progression

D* Production in Deep Inelastic Scattering at HERA

This paper presents measurements of D^{*\pm} production in deep inelastic scattering from collisions between 27.5 GeV positrons and 820 GeV protons. The data have been taken with the ZEUS detector at HERA. The decay channel $D^{*+}\to (D^0 \to K^- \pi^+) \pi^+$ (+ c.c.) has been used in the study. The $e^+p$ cross section for inclusive D^{*\pm} production with $5<Q^2<100 GeV^2$ and $y<0.7$ is 5.3 \pms 1.0 \pms 0.8 nb in the kinematic region {$1.3<p_T(D^{*\pm})<9.0$ GeV and $| \eta(D^{*\pm}) |<1.5$}. Differential cross sections as functions of p_T(D^{*\pm}), $\eta(D^{*\pm}), W$ and $Q^2$ are compared with next-to-leading order QCD calculations based on the photon-gluon fusion production mechanism. After an extrapolation of the cross section to the full kinematic region in p_T(D^{*\pm}) and $\eta$(D^{*\pm}), the charm contribution $F_2^{c\bar{c}}(x,Q^2)$ to the proton structure function is determined for Bjorken $x$ between 2 $\cdot$ 10$^{-4}$ and 5 $\cdot$ 10$^{-3}$.Comment: 17 pages including 4 figure

Observation of Scaling Violations in Scaled Momentum Distributions at HERA

Charged particle production has been measured in deep inelastic scattering (DIS) events over a large range of $x$ and $Q^2$ using the ZEUS detector. The evolution of the scaled momentum, $x_p$, with $Q^2,$ in the range 10 to 1280 $GeV^2$, has been investigated in the current fragmentation region of the Breit frame. The results show clear evidence, in a single experiment, for scaling violations in scaled momenta as a function of $Q^2$.Comment: 21 pages including 4 figures, to be published in Physics Letters B. Two references adde

Observation of hard scattering in photoproduction events with a large rapidity gap at HERA

Events with a large rapidity gap and total transverse energy greater than 5 GeV have been observed in quasi-real photoproduction at HERA with the ZEUS detector. The distribution of these events as a function of the $\gamma p$ centre of mass energy is consistent with diffractive scattering. For total transverse energies above 12 GeV, the hadronic final states show predominantly a two-jet structure with each jet having a transverse energy greater than 4 GeV. For the two-jet events, little energy flow is found outside the jets. This observation is consistent with the hard scattering of a quasi-real photon with a colourless object in the proton.Comment: 19 pages, latex, 4 figures appended as uuencoded fil