86 research outputs found

    Rural to Urban Population Density Scaling of Crime and Property Transactions in English and Welsh Parliamentary Constituencies

    Get PDF
    Urban population scaling of resource use, creativity metrics, and human behaviors has been widely studied. These studies have not looked in detail at the full range of human environments which represent a continuum from the most rural to heavily urban. We examined monthly police crime reports and property transaction values across all 573 Parliamentary Constituencies in England and Wales, finding that scaling models based on population density provided a far superior framework to traditional population scaling. We found four types of scaling: i ) non-urban scaling in which a single power law explained the relationship between the metrics and population density from the most rural to heavily urban environments, ii ) accelerated scaling in which high population density was associated with an increase in the power-law exponent, iii ) inhibited scaling where the urban environment resulted in a reduction in the power-law exponent but remained positive, and iv ) collapsed scaling where transition to the high density environment resulted in a negative scaling exponent. Urban scaling transitions, when observed, took place universally between 10 and 70 people per hectare. This study significantly refines our understanding of urban scaling, making clear that some of what has been previously ascribed to urban environments may simply be the high density portion of non-urban scaling. It also makes clear that some metrics undergo specific transitions in urban environments and these transitions can include negative scaling exponents indicative of collapse. This study gives promise of far more sophisticated scale adjusted metrics and indicates that studies of urban scaling represent a high density subsection of overall scaling relationships which continue into rural environments

    Fluctuation Scaling, Taylor’s Law, and Crime

    Get PDF
    Fluctuation scaling relationships have been observed in a wide range of processes ranging from internet router traffic to measles cases. Taylor’s law is one such scaling relationship and has been widely applied in ecology to understand communities including trees, birds, human populations, and insects. We show that monthly crime reports in the UK show complex fluctuation scaling which can be approximated by Taylor’s law relationships corresponding to local policing neighborhoods and larger regional and countrywide scales. Regression models applied to local scale data from Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire found that different categories of crime exhibited different scaling exponents with no significant difference between the two regions. On this scale, violence reports were close to a Poisson distribution (α = 1.057±0.026) while burglary exhibited a greater exponent (α = 1.292±0.029) indicative of temporal clustering. These two regions exhibited significantly different pre-exponential factors for the categories of anti-social behavior and burglary indicating that local variations in crime reports can be assessed using fluctuation scaling methods. At regional and countrywide scales, all categories exhibited scaling behavior indicative of temporal clustering evidenced by Taylor’s law exponents from 1.43±0.12 (Drugs) to 2.094±0081 (Other Crimes). Investigating crime behavior via fluctuation scaling gives insight beyond that of raw numbers and is unique in reporting on all processes contributing to the observed variance and is either robust to or exhibits signs of many types of data manipulation

    When R > 0.8 R0: fluorescence anisotropy, non-additive intensity, and cluster size

    Get PDF
    Assembly and clustering feature in many biological processes and homo-FRET and fluorescence anisotropy can assist in estimating the aggregation state of a system. The distance dependence of resonance energy transfer is well described and tested. Similarly, assessment of cluster size using steady state anisotropy is well described for non-oriented systems when R 0.8 R0. Fused trimeric DNA clusters labelled with fluorescein were engineered to provide inter-fluorophore distances from 0.7 to 1.6 R/R0 and intensity and anisotropy were measured. These constructs cover a range where anisotropy effects depend on distance. Analytical expressions were derived for fully labelled and fractionally labelled clusters and the experimental results analysed. The experimental results showed that: 1) the system underwent distance dependent quenching; 2) when incompletely labelled both doubly and triply labelled forms could be assessed to obtain distance dependent intensity factors; 3) the anisotropy behaviour of a multiply labelled cluster of a particular size depends on the behaviour of the fluorophores and their distance in a cluster. This work establishes that when emission intensity data are available the analytically useful range for investigating clusters does not have to be restricted to R < 0.8 R0 and is applicable to cases where the anisotropy of a cluster of N fluorophores is not well approximated by r1/N

    City size and the spreading of COVID-19 in Brazil

    Get PDF
    The current outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an unprecedented example of how fast an infectious disease can spread around the globe (especially in urban areas) and the enormous impact it causes on public health and socio-economic activities. Despite the recent surge of investigations about different aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, we still know little about the effects of city size on the propagation of this disease in urban areas. Here we investigate how the number of cases and deaths by COVID-19 scale with the population of Brazilian cities. Our results indicate that large cities are proportionally more affected by COVID-19, such that every 1% rise in population is associated with 0.57% increase in the number of cases per capita and 0.25% in the number of deaths per capita. The difference between the scaling of cases and deaths indicates the case fatality rate decreases with city size. The latest estimates show that a 1% increase in population associates with a 0.14% reduction in the case fatality rate of COVID-19; however, this urban advantage has decreased over time. We interpret this to be due to the existence of proportionally more health infrastructure in the largest cities and a lower proportion of older adults in large urban areas. We also find the initial growth rate of cases and deaths to be higher in large cities; however, these growth rates tend to decrease in large cities and to increase in small ones during the long-term course of the pandemic

    Fluctuation scaling, the calibration of dispersion, and the detection of differences

    Get PDF
    Fluctuation scaling describes the relationship between the mean and standard deviation of a set of measurements. An example is Horwitz scaling which has been reported from inter-laboratory studies. Horwitz and similar studies have reported simple exponential and segmented scaling laws with exponents (α) typically between 0.85 (Horwitz) and 1 when not operating near a detection limit. When approaching a detection limit the exponents change and approach an apparently Gaussian (α = 0) model. This behavior is generally presented as a property of inter-laboratory studies which makes controlled replication to understand the behavior costly to perform. To assess the contribution of instrumentation to larger scale fluctuation scaling, we measured the behavior of two inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry (ICP-AES) systems, in two laboratories measuring thulium using 2 emission lines. The standard deviation universally increased with the uncalibrated signal indicating the system was heteroscedastic. The response from all lines and both instruments was consistent with a single exponential dispersion model having parameters α = 1.09 and β = 0.0035. No evidence of Horwitz scaling was found and there was no evidence of Poisson noise limiting behavior. The “Gaussian” component was a consequence of background subtraction for all lines and both instruments. The observation of a simple exponential dispersion model in the data allows for the definition of a difference detection limit (DDL) with universal applicability to systems following known dispersion. The DDL is the minimum separation between two points along a dispersion model required to claim they are different according to a particular statistical test. The DDL scales transparently with the mean and works at any location in a response function
    • …
    corecore