Yellow fever in South America: The role of environment and host on transmission dynamics

Yellow fever (YF) is an arbovirus that affects both humans and non-human primates (NHPs). Despite a longstanding recognition of YF as a significant public health problem, many aspects of its underlying transmission and maintenance remain unknown. These knowledge gaps continue to exist even with the increasing availability of data, techniques and recent large-scale outbreaks in South America and Africa.Using several statistical and machine learning methods, I investigate the role of climate, environment and host in predicting the suitability of YF across South America, as an average, seasonally and inter-annually. Following Iexamine the role of seasonality of agriculture, as a proxy for exposure, on human and NHP YF reports in Brazil. To contextualise these predictions and recommendations, I calculate and describe population-level YF vaccination coverage estimates (1940-2050) across Africa and South America, as well as the interactive web-based platform these are published on. Finally, I predict the distribution and density of NHP genera across the South-East of Brazil, and use this ina stochastic multi-species, age structured, meta-population model to explore the role of NHP genera on viral maintenance, and the potential for the establishment of endemicity in the state of Rio de Janeiro.Overall this thesis describes several key aspects necessary to understand the enigma of YF transmission in South America. A greater understanding of climate and environment allows for the possibility of forecasting periods of heightened transmission which could inform pro-active surveillance and vaccination, supported through our vaccination coverage estimates. Finally, by providing insights into the role of NHP genera on maintenance and critical community sizes for YFV transmission, I can highlight the potential for endemicity to be established.Open Acces

Risks Posed by Reston, the Forgotten Ebolavirus

Out of the five members of the Ebolavirus family, four cause lifethreatening disease, whereas the fifth, Reston virus (RESTV), is nonpathogenic in humans. The reasons for this discrepancy remain unclear. In this review, we analyze the currently available information to provide a state-of-the-art summary of the factors that determine the human pathogenicity of Ebolaviruses. RESTV causes sporadic infections in cynomolgus monkeys and is found in domestic pigs throughout the Philippines and China. Phylogenetic analyses revealed that RESTV is most closely related to the Sudan virus, which causes a high mortality rate in humans. Amino acid sequence differences between RESTV and the other Ebolaviruses are found in all nine Ebolavirus proteins, though no one residue appears sufficient to confer pathogenicity. Changes in the glycoprotein contribute to differences in Ebolavirus pathogenicity but are not sufficient to confer pathogenicity on their own. Similarly, differences in VP24 and VP35 affect viral immune evasion and are associated with changes in human pathogenicity. A recent in silico analysis systematically determined the functional consequences of sequence variations between RESTV and human-pathogenic Ebolaviruses. Multiple positions in VP24 were differently conserved between RESTV and the other Ebolaviruses and may alter human pathogenicity. In conclusion, the factors that determine the pathogenicity of Ebolaviruses in humans remain insufficiently understood. An improved understanding of these pathogenicity-determining factors is of crucial importance for disease prevention and for the early detection of emergent and potentially human-pathogenic RESTVs

Assessing the impact of preventive mass vaccination campaigns on yellow fever outbreaks in Africa: A population-level self-controlled case series study.

The Eliminate Yellow fever Epidemics (EYE) strategy was launched in 2017 in response to the resurgence of yellow fever in Africa and the Americas. The strategy relies on several vaccination activities, including preventive mass vaccination campaigns (PMVCs). However, to what extent PMVCs are associated with a decreased risk of outbreak has not yet been quantified. We used the self-controlled case series (SCCS) method to assess the association between the occurrence of yellow fever outbreaks and the implementation of PMVCs at the province level in the African endemic region. As all time-invariant confounders are implicitly controlled for in the SCCS method, this method is an alternative to classical cohort or case-control study designs when the risk of residual confounding is high, in particular confounding by indication. The locations and dates of outbreaks were identified from international epidemiological records, and information on PMVCs was provided by coordinators of vaccination activities and international funders. The study sample consisted of provinces that were both affected by an outbreak and targeted for a PMVC between 2005 and 2018. We compared the incidence of outbreaks before and after the implementation of a PMVC. The sensitivity of our estimates to a range of assumptions was explored, and the results of the SCCS method were compared to those obtained through a retrospective cohort study design. We further derived the number of yellow fever outbreaks that have been prevented by PMVCs. The study sample consisted of 33 provinces from 11 African countries. Among these, the first outbreak occurred during the pre-PMVC period in 26 (79%) provinces, and during the post-PMVC period in 7 (21%) provinces. At the province level, the post-PMVC period was associated with an 86% reduction (95% CI 66% to 94%, p < 0.001) in the risk of outbreak as compared to the pre-PMVC period. This negative association between exposure to PMVCs and outbreak was robustly observed across a range of sensitivity analyses, especially when using quantitative estimates of vaccination coverage as an alternative exposure measure, or when varying the observation period. In contrast, the results of the cohort-style analyses were highly sensitive to the choice of covariates included in the model. Based on the SCCS results, we estimated that PMVCs were associated with a 34% (95% CI 22% to 45%) reduction in the number of outbreaks in Africa from 2005 to 2018. A limitation of our study is the fact that it does not account for potential time-varying confounders, such as changing environmental drivers of yellow fever and possibly improved disease surveillance. In this study, we provide new empirical evidence of the high preventive impact of PMVCs on yellow fever outbreaks. This study illustrates that the SCCS method can be advantageously applied at the population level in order to evaluate a public health intervention

Serological evidence of virus infection in Eidolon helvum fruit bats : implications for bushmeat consumption in Nigeria

DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT : The raw data supporting the conclusions of this article will be made available by the authors, without undue reservation.INTRODUCTION : The Eidolon helvum fruit bat is one of the most widely distributed fruit bats in Africa and known to be a reservoir for several pathogenic viruses that can cause disease in animals and humans. To assess the risk of zoonotic spillover, we conducted a serological survey of 304 serum samples from E. helvum bats that were captured for human consumption in Makurdi, Nigeria. METHODS : Using pseudotyped viruses, we screened 304 serum samples for neutralizing antibodies against viruses from the Coronaviridae, Filoviridae, Orthomyxoviridae and Paramyxoviridae families. RESULTS : We report the presence of neutralizing antibodies against henipavirus lineage GH-M74a virus (odds ratio 6.23; p < 0.001), Nipah virus (odds ratio 4.04; p = 0.00031), bat influenza H17N10 virus (odds ratio 7.25; p < 0.001) and no significant association with Ebola virus (odds ratio 0.56; p = 0.375) in this bat cohort. CONCLUSION : The data suggest a potential risk of zoonotic spillover including the possible circulation of highly pathogenic viruses in E. helvum populations. These findings highlight the importance of maintaining sero-surveillance of E. helvum, and the necessity for further, more comprehensive investigations to monitor changes in virus prevalence, distribution over time, and across different geographic locations.The UK Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) and the devolved Scottish and Welsh governments; the University of Essex COVID-19 Rapid and Agile and the Faculty of Science and Health Research Innovation and Support Funds.https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/public-health#am2024Veterinary Tropical DiseasesSDG-03:Good heatlh and well-bein

Serological evidence of virus infection in Eidolon helvum fruit bats: implications for bushmeat consumption in Nigeria

Introduction: The Eidolon helvum fruit bat is one of the most widely distributed fruit bats in Africa and known to be a reservoir for several pathogenic viruses that can cause disease in animals and humans. To assess the risk of zoonotic spillover, we conducted a serological survey of 304 serum samples from E. helvum bats that were captured for human consumption in Makurdi, Nigeria. Methods: Using pseudotyped viruses, we screened 304 serum samples for neutralizing antibodies against viruses from the Coronaviridae, Filoviridae, Orthomyxoviridae and Paramyxoviridae families. Results: We report the presence of neutralizing antibodies against henipavirus lineage GH-M74a virus (odds ratio 6.23; p < 0.001), Nipah virus (odds ratio 4.04; p = 0.00031), bat influenza H17N10 virus (odds ratio 7.25; p < 0.001) and no significant association with Ebola virus (odds ratio 0.56; p = 0.375) in this bat cohort. Conclusion: The data suggest a potential risk of zoonotic spillover including the possible circulation of highly pathogenic viruses in E. helvum populations. These findings highlight the importance of maintaining sero-surveillance of E. helvum, and the necessity for further, more comprehensive investigations to monitor changes in virus prevalence, distribution over time, and across different geographic locations

Optimising the deployment of vector control tools against malaria: a data-informed modelling study

Background Concern that insecticide resistant mosquitoes are threatening malaria control has driven the development of new types of insecticide treated nets (ITNs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) of insecticide. Malaria control programmes have a choice of vector control interventions although it is unclear which controls should be used to combat the disease. The study aimed at producing a framework to easily compare the public health impact and cost-effectiveness of different malaria prevention measures currently in widespread use. Methods We used published data from experimental hut trials conducted across Africa to characterise the entomological effect of pyrethroid-only ITNs versus ITNs combining a pyrethroid insecticide with the synergist piperonyl butoxide (PBO). We use these estimates to parameterise a dynamic mathematical model of Plasmodium falciparum malaria which is validated for two sites by comparing simulated results to empirical data from randomised control trials (RCTs) in Tanzania and Uganda. We extrapolated model simulations for a series of potential scenarios likely across the sub-Saharan African region and include results in an online tool (Malaria INtervention Tool [MINT]) that aims to identify optimum vector control intervention packages for scenarios with varying budget, price, entomological and epidemiological factors. Findings Our model indicates that switching from pyrethroid-only to pyrethroid-PBO ITNs could averted up to twice as many cases, although the additional benefit is highly variable and depends on the setting conditions. We project that annual delivery of long-lasting, non-pyrethroid IRS would prevent substantially more cases over 3-years, while pyrethroid-PBO ITNs tend to be the most cost-effective intervention per case averted. The model was able to predict prevalence and efficacy against prevalence in both RCTs for the intervention types tested. MINT is applicable to regions of sub-Saharan Africa with endemic malaria and provides users with a method of designing intervention packages given their setting and budget. Interpretation The most cost-effective vector control package will vary locally. Models able to recreate results of RCTs can be used to extrapolate outcomes elsewhere to support evidence-based decision making for investment in vector control

Leveraging community mortality indicators to infer COVID-19 mortality and transmission dynamics in Damascus, Syria.

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in substantial mortality worldwide. However, to date, countries in the Middle East and Africa have reported considerably lower mortality rates than in Europe and the Americas. Motivated by reports of an overwhelmed health system, we estimate the likely under-ascertainment of COVID-19 mortality in Damascus, Syria. Using all-cause mortality data, we fit a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission to reported mortality, estimating that 1.25% of COVID-19 deaths (sensitivity range 1.00% - 3.00%) have been reported as of 2 September 2020. By 2 September, we estimate that 4,380 (95% CI: 3,250 - 5,550) COVID-19 deaths in Damascus may have been missed, with 39.0% (95% CI: 32.5% - 45.0%) of the population in Damascus estimated to have been infected. Accounting for under-ascertainment corroborates reports of exceeded hospital bed capacity and is validated by community-uploaded obituary notifications, which confirm extensive unreported mortality in Damascus

Estimating the number of undetected COVID-19 cases among travellers from mainland China

Background: As of August 2021, every region of the world has been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, with more than 196,000,000 cases worldwide. Methods: We analysed COVID-19 cases among travellers from mainland China to different regions and countries, comparing the region- and country-specific rates of detected and confirmed cases per flight volume to estimate the relative sensitivity of surveillance in different regions and countries. Results: Although travel restrictions from Wuhan City and other cities across China may have reduced the absolute number of travellers to and from China, we estimated that up to 70% (95% CI: 54% - 80%) of imported cases could remain undetected relative to the sensitivity of surveillance in Singapore. The percentage of undetected imported cases rises to 75% (95% CI 66% - 82%) when comparing to the surveillance sensitivity in multiple countries. Conclusions: Our analysis shows that a large number of COVID-19 cases remain undetected across the world.These undetected cases potentially resulted in multiple chains of human-to-human transmission outside mainland China

Understanding the potential impact of different drug properties on SARS-CoV-2 transmission and disease burden : a modelling analysis

Q1Q1Background The unprecedented public health impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has motivated a rapid search for potential therapeutics, with some key successes. However, the potential impact of different treatments, and consequently research and procurement priorities, have not been clear. Methods and Findings develop a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, COVID-19 disease and clinical care to explore the potential public-health impact of a range of different potential therapeutics, under a range of different scenarios varying: i) healthcare capacity, ii) epidemic trajectories; and iii) drug efficacy in the absence of supportive care. In each case, the outcome of interest was the number of COVID-19 deaths averted in scenarios with the therapeutic compared to scenarios without. We find the impact of drugs like dexamethasone (which are delivered to the most critically-ill in hospital and whose therapeutic benefit is expected to depend on the availability of supportive care such as oxygen and mechanical ventilation) is likely to be limited in settings where healthcare capacity is lowest or where uncontrolled epidemics result in hospitals being overwhelmed. As such, it may avert 22% of deaths in highincome countries but only 8% in low-income countries (assuming R=1.35). Therapeutics for different patient populations (those not in hospital, early in the course of infection) and types of benefit (reducing disease severity or infectiousness, preventing hospitalisation) could have much greater benefits, particularly in resource-poor settings facing large epidemics. Conclusions There is a global asymmetry in who is likely to benefit from advances in the treatment of COVID-19 to date, which have been focussed on hospitalised-patients and predicated on an assumption of adequate access to supportive care. Therapeutics that can feasibly be delivered to those earlier in the course of infection that reduce the need for healthcare or reduce infectiousness could have significant impact, and research into their efficacy and means of delivery should be a priorityRevista Internacional - Indexad

Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis.

BACKGROUND: In the face of rapidly changing data, a range of case fatality ratio estimates for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have been produced that differ substantially in magnitude. We aimed to provide robust estimates, accounting for censoring and ascertainment biases. METHODS: We collected individual-case data for patients who died from COVID-19 in Hubei, mainland China (reported by national and provincial health commissions to Feb 8, 2020), and for cases outside of mainland China (from government or ministry of health websites and media reports for 37 countries, as well as Hong Kong and Macau, until Feb 25, 2020). These individual-case data were used to estimate the time between onset of symptoms and outcome (death or discharge from hospital). We next obtained age-stratified estimates of the case fatality ratio by relating the aggregate distribution of cases to the observed cumulative deaths in China, assuming a constant attack rate by age and adjusting for demography and age-based and location-based under-ascertainment. We also estimated the case fatality ratio from individual line-list data on 1334 cases identified outside of mainland China. Using data on the prevalence of PCR-confirmed cases in international residents repatriated from China, we obtained age-stratified estimates of the infection fatality ratio. Furthermore, data on age-stratified severity in a subset of 3665 cases from China were used to estimate the proportion of infected individuals who are likely to require hospitalisation. FINDINGS: Using data on 24 deaths that occurred in mainland China and 165 recoveries outside of China, we estimated the mean duration from onset of symptoms to death to be 17·8 days (95% credible interval [CrI] 16·9-19·2) and to hospital discharge to be 24·7 days (22·9-28·1). In all laboratory confirmed and clinically diagnosed cases from mainland China (n=70 117), we estimated a crude case fatality ratio (adjusted for censoring) of 3·67% (95% CrI 3·56-3·80). However, after further adjusting for demography and under-ascertainment, we obtained a best estimate of the case fatality ratio in China of 1·38% (1·23-1·53), with substantially higher ratios in older age groups (0·32% [0·27-0·38] in those aged <60 years vs 6·4% [5·7-7·2] in those aged ≥60 years), up to 13·4% (11·2-15·9) in those aged 80 years or older. Estimates of case fatality ratio from international cases stratified by age were consistent with those from China (parametric estimate 1·4% [0·4-3·5] in those aged <60 years [n=360] and 4·5% [1·8-11·1] in those aged ≥60 years [n=151]). Our estimated overall infection fatality ratio for China was 0·66% (0·39-1·33), with an increasing profile with age. Similarly, estimates of the proportion of infected individuals likely to be hospitalised increased with age up to a maximum of 18·4% (11·0-37·6) in those aged 80 years or older. INTERPRETATION: These early estimates give an indication of the fatality ratio across the spectrum of COVID-19 disease and show a strong age gradient in risk of death. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council