Climate refugia on the Great Barrier Reef fail when global warming exceeds 3°C.

This is the final version. Available from Wiley via the DOI in this record. DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT: These data are available through Zenodo as the data were used in a previous paper (McWhorter et al., 2021), https://zenodo.org/record/5534875#.YnvfQOjMKUm. The code in this study is available by request.Increases in the magnitude, frequency, and duration of warm seawater temperatures are causing mass coral mortality events across the globe. Although, even during the most extensive bleaching events, some reefs escape exposure to severe stress, constituting potential refugia. Here, we identify present-day climate refugia on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) and project their persistence into the future. To do this, we apply semi-dynamic downscaling to an ensemble of climate projections released for the IPCC's recent sixth Assessment Report. We find that GBR locations experiencing the least thermal stress over the past 20 years have done so because of their oceanographic circumstance, which implies that longer-term persistence of climate refugia is feasible. Specifically, tidal and wind mixing of warm water away from the sea surface appears to provide relief from warming. However, on average this relative advantage only persists until global warming exceeds ~3°C.UKRICooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studie

The importance of 1.5°C warming for the Great Barrier Reef

This is the final version. Available on open access from Wiley via the DOI in this recordData and code availability. The data that support the findings of this study are openly available in Zenodo at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5534875Tropical coral reefs are among the most sensitive ecosystems to climate change and will benefit from the more ambitious aims of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’s Paris Agreement, which proposed to limit global warming to 1.5° rather than 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Only in the latest IPCC focussed assessment, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), have climate models been used to investigate the 1.5° warming scenario directly. Here, we combine the most recent model updates from CMIP6 with a semi-dynamic downscaling to evaluate the difference between the 1.5°C and 2°C global warming targets on coral thermal stress metrics for the Great Barrier Reef. By ~2080, severe bleaching events are expected to occur annually under intensifying emissions (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP5-8.5). Adherence to 2° warming (SSP1-2.6) halves this frequency but the main benefit of confining warming to 1.5° (SSP1-1.9) is that bleaching events are reduced further to 3 events per decade. Attaining low emissions of 1.5° is also paramount to prevent the mean magnitude of thermal stress from stabilizing close to a critical thermal threshold (8 DHW). Thermal stress under the more pessimistic pathways SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 is 3- to 4-fold higher than present day, with grave implications for future reef ecosystem health. As global warming continues, our projections also indicate more regional warming in the central and southern Great Barrier Reef than the far north and northern Great Barrier Reef.QUEX InstituteNatural Environment Research Council (NERC)Australian Research Council (ARC)NOA

Impact of general practice endorsement on the social gradient in uptake in bowel cancer screening

This is a summary of independent research funded by the National Institute for Health. Research (NIHR)’s Programme Grants for Applied Research Programme (RP-PG-0609–10106

Effect of Heterogeneous Mixing and Vaccination on the Dynamics of Anthelmintic Resistance: A Nested Model

Anthelmintic resistance is a major threat to current measures for helminth control in humans and animals. The introduction of anthelmintic vaccines, as a complement to or replacement for drug treatments, has been advocated as a preventive measure. Here, a computer-based simulation, tracking the dynamics of hosts, parasites and parasite-genes, shows that, depending on the degree of host-population mixing, the frequency of totally recessive autosomes associated with anthelmintic resistance can follow either a fast dynamical regime with a low equilibrium point or a slow dynamical regime with a high equilibrium point. For fully dominant autosomes, only one regime is predicted. The effectiveness of anthelminthic vaccines against resistance is shown to be strongly influenced by the underlying dynamics of resistant autosomes. Vaccines targeting adult parasites, by decreasing helminth fecundity or lifespan, are predicted to be more effective than vaccines targeting parasite larvae, by decreasing host susceptibility to infection, in reducing the spread of resistance. These results may inform new strategies to prevent, monitor and control the spread of anthelmintic resistance, including the development of viable anthelmintic vaccines

Specific and individuated death reflection fosters identity integration

Identity integration is the process wherein a person assimilates multiple or conflicting identities (e.g., beliefs, values, needs) into a coherent, unified self-concept. Three experiments examined whether contemplating mortality in a specific and individuated manner (i.e., via the death reflection manipulation) facilitated outcomes indicative of identity integration. Participants in the death reflection condition (vs. control conditions) considered positive and negative life experiences as equally important in shaping their current identity (Experiment 1), regarded self-serving values and other-serving values as equally important life principles (Experiment 2), and were equally motivated to pursue growth-oriented and security-oriented needs (Experiment 3). Death reflection motivates individuals to integrate conflicting aspects of their identity into a coherent self-concept. Given that identity integration is associated with higher well-being, the findings have implications for understanding the psychological benefits of existential contemplation

Transmission patterns of smallpox: systematic review of natural outbreaks in Europe and North America since World War II

BACKGROUND: Because smallpox (variola major) may be used as a biological weapon, we reviewed outbreaks in post-World War II Europe and North America in order to understand smallpox transmission patterns. METHODS: A systematic review was used to identify papers from the National Library of Medicine, Embase, Biosis, Cochrane Library, Defense Technical Information Center, WorldCat, and reference lists of included publications. Two authors reviewed selected papers for smallpox outbreaks. RESULTS: 51 relevant outbreaks were identified from 1,389 publications. The median for the effective first generation reproduction rate (initial R) was 2 (range 0–38). The majority outbreaks were small (less than 5 cases) and contained within one generation. Outbreaks with few hospitalized patients had low initial R values (median of 1) and were prolonged if not initially recognized (median of 3 generations); outbreaks with mostly hospitalized patients had higher initial R values (median 12) and were shorter (median of 3 generations). Index cases with an atypical presentation of smallpox were less likely to have been diagnosed with smallpox; outbreaks in which the index case was not correctly diagnosed were larger (median of 27.5 cases) and longer (median of 3 generations) compared to outbreaks in which the index case was correctly diagnosed (median of 3 cases and 1 generation). CONCLUSION: Patterns of spread during Smallpox outbreaks varied with circumstances, but early detection and implementation of control measures is a most important influence on the magnitude of outbreaks. The majority of outbreaks studied in Europe and North America were controlled within a few generations if detected early

Faecal immunochemical tests (FIT) can help to rule out colorectal cancer in patients presenting in primary care with lower abdominal symptoms:a systematic review conducted to inform new NICE DG30 diagnostic guidance

__Background:__ This study has attempted to assess the effectiveness of quantitative faecal immunochemical tests (FIT) for triage of people presenting with lower abdominal symptoms, where a referral to secondary care for investigation of suspected colorectal cancer (CRC) is being considered, particularly when the 2-week criteria are not met. __Methods:__ We conducted a systematic review following published guidelines for systematic reviews of diagnostic tests. Twenty-one resources were searched up until March 2016. Summary estimates were calculated using a bivariate model or a random-effects logistic regression model. __Results:__ Nine studies are included in this review. One additional study, included in our systematic review, was provided as 'academic in confidence' and cannot be described herein. When FIT was based on a single faecal sample and a cut-off of 10 μg Hb/g faeces, sensitivity estimates indicated that a negative result using either the OC-Sensor or HM-JACKarc may be adequate to rule out nearly all CRC; the summary estimate of sensitivity for the OC-Sensor was 92.1%, based on four studies, and the only study of HM-JACKarc to assess the 10 μg Hb/g faeces cut-off reported a sensitivity of 100%. The corresponding specificity estimates were 85.8% (95% CI 78.3-91.0%) and 76.6%, respectively. When the diagnostic criterion was changed to include lower grades of neoplasia, i.e. the target condition included higher risk adenoma (HRA) as well as CRC, the rule-out performance of both FIT assays was reduced. __Conclusions:__ There is evidence to suggest that triage using FIT at a cut-off around 10 μg Hb/g faeces has the potential to correctly rule out CRC and avoid colonoscopy in 75-80% of symptomatic patients. Systematic review registration: PROSPERO 4201603772

Paradoxical Effects of Rapamycin on Experimental House Dust Mite-Induced Asthma

The mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) modulates immune responses and cellular proliferation. The objective of this study was to assess whether inhibition of mTOR with rapamycin modifies disease severity in two experimental murine models of house dust mite (HDM)-induced asthma. In an induction model, rapamycin was administered to BALB/c mice coincident with nasal HDM challenges for 3 weeks. In a treatment model, nasal HDM challenges were performed for 6 weeks and rapamycin treatment was administered during weeks 4 through 6. In the induction model, rapamycin significantly attenuated airway inflammation, airway hyperreactivity (AHR) and goblet cell hyperplasia. In contrast, treatment of established HDM-induced asthma with rapamycin exacerbated AHR and airway inflammation, whereas goblet cell hyperplasia was not modified. Phosphorylation of the S6 ribosomal protein, which is downstream of mTORC1, was increased after 3 weeks, but not 6 weeks of HDM-challenge. Rapamycin reduced S6 phosphorylation in HDM-challenged mice in both the induction and treatment models. Thus, the paradoxical effects of rapamycin on asthma severity paralleled the activation of mTOR signaling. Lastly, mediastinal lymph node re-stimulation experiments showed that treatment of rapamycin-naive T cells with ex vivo rapamycin decreased antigen-specific Th2 cytokine production, whereas prior exposure to in vivo rapamycin rendered T cells refractory to the suppressive effects of ex vivo rapamycin. We conclude that rapamycin had paradoxical effects on the pathogenesis of experimental HDM-induced asthma. Thus, consistent with the context-dependent effects of rapamycin on inflammation, the timing of mTOR inhibition may be an important determinant of efficacy and toxicity in HDM-induced asthma

Causal inference based on counterfactuals

BACKGROUND: The counterfactual or potential outcome model has become increasingly standard for causal inference in epidemiological and medical studies. DISCUSSION: This paper provides an overview on the counterfactual and related approaches. A variety of conceptual as well as practical issues when estimating causal effects are reviewed. These include causal interactions, imperfect experiments, adjustment for confounding, time-varying exposures, competing risks and the probability of causation. It is argued that the counterfactual model of causal effects captures the main aspects of causality in health sciences and relates to many statistical procedures. SUMMARY: Counterfactuals are the basis of causal inference in medicine and epidemiology. Nevertheless, the estimation of counterfactual differences pose several difficulties, primarily in observational studies. These problems, however, reflect fundamental barriers only when learning from observations, and this does not invalidate the counterfactual concept

High efficiency of alphaviral gene transfer in combination with 5-fluorouracil in a mouse mammary tumor model

Copyright: Copyright 2014 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.Background: The combination of virotherapy and chemotherapy may enable efficient tumor regression that would be unachievable using either therapy alone. In this study, we investigated the efficiency of transgene delivery and the cytotoxic effects of alphaviral vector in combination with 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) in a mouse mammary tumor model (4 T1).Methods: Replication-deficient Semliki Forest virus (SFV) vectors carrying genes encoding fluorescent proteins were used to infect 4 T1 cell cultures treated with different doses of 5-FU. The efficiency of infection was monitored via fluorescence microscopy and quantified by fluorometry. The cytotoxicity of the combined treatment with 5-FU and alphaviral vector was measured using an MTT-based cell viability assay. In vivo experiments were performed in a subcutaneous 4 T1 mouse mammary tumor model with different 5-FU doses and an SFV vector encoding firefly luciferase.Results: Infection of 4 T1 cells with SFV prior to 5-FU treatment did not produce a synergistic anti-proliferative effect. An alternative treatment strategy, in which 5-FU was used prior to virus infection, strongly inhibited SFV expression. Nevertheless, in vivo experiments showed a significant enhancement in SFV-driven transgene (luciferase) expression upon intratumoral and intraperitoneal vector administration in 4 T1 tumor-bearing mice pretreated with 5-FU: here, we observed a positive correlation between 5-FU dose and the level of luciferase expression.Conclusions: Although 5-FU inhibited SFV-mediated transgene expression in 4 T1 cells in vitro, application of the drug in a mouse model revealed a significant enhancement of intratumoral transgene synthesis compared with 5-FU untreated mice. These results may have implications for efficient transgene delivery and the development of potent cancer treatment strategies using alphaviral vectors and 5-FU.publishersversionPeer reviewe