Changes in bone structure and metabolism during simulated weightlessness: Endocrine and dietary factors

The role of vitamin D, PTH and corticosterone in the skeletal alterations induced by simulated weightlessness was examined. The first objective was to determine if changes in the serum concentrations of Ca, P sub i, osteocalcin, 25-OH-D, 24,25(OH)2D or 1,25(OH)2D also occur following acute skeletal unloading. Animals were either suspended or pair fed for 2, 5, 7, 10, 12 and 15 days and the serum concentrations of Ca, P sub i, osteocalcin and the vitamin D metabolites measured. Bone histology was examined at day 5 after suspension. Acute skeletal unloading produced a transient hypercalcemia, a significant fall in serum osteocalcin and serum 1,25(OH)2D, a slight rise in serum 24,25(OH)2D, but did not affect the serum concentrations of P sub i or 25-OH-D. At the nadir in serum 1,25(OH)2D serum osteocalcin was reduced by 22%, osteoblast surface by 32% and longitudinal bone growth by 21%

The role of 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D in the inhibition of bone formation induced by skeletal unloading

Skeletal unloading results in osteopenia. To examine the involvement of vitamin D in this process, the rear limbs of growing rats were unloaded and alterations in bone calcium and bone histology were related to changes in serum calcium (Ca), inorganic phosphorus (P sub i), 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25-OH-D), 24,25-dihydroxyvitamin D (24,25(OH)2D and 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D (1,25(OH)2D. Acute skeletal unloading induced a transitory inhibition of Ca accumulation in unloaded bones. This was accompanied by a transitory rise in serum Ca, a 21% decrease in longitudinal bone growth (P 0.01), a 32% decrease in bone surface lined with osteoblasts (P .05), no change in bone surface lined with osteoclasts and a decrease in circulating (1,25(OH)2D. No significant changes in the serum concentrations of P sub i, 25-OH-D or 24,25(OH)2D were observed. After 2 weeks of unloading, bone Ca stabilized at approximately 70% of control and serum Ca and 1,25(OH)2D returned to control values. Maintenance of a constant serum 1,25(OH)2D concentration by chronic infusion of 1,25(OH)2D (Alza osmotic minipump) throughout the study period did not prevent the bone changes induced by acute unloading. These results suggest that acute skeletal unloading in the growing rat produces a transitory inhibition of bone formation which in turn produces a transitory hypercalcemia

FluTE, a Publicly Available Stochastic Influenza Epidemic Simulation Model

Mathematical and computer models of epidemics have contributed to our understanding of the spread of infectious disease and the measures needed to contain or mitigate them. To help prepare for future influenza seasonal epidemics or pandemics, we developed a new stochastic model of the spread of influenza across a large population. Individuals in this model have realistic social contact networks, and transmission and infections are based on the current state of knowledge of the natural history of influenza. The model has been calibrated so that outcomes are consistent with the 1957/1958 Asian A(H2N2) and 2009 pandemic A(H1N1) influenza viruses. We present examples of how this model can be used to study the dynamics of influenza epidemics in the United States and simulate how to mitigate or delay them using pharmaceutical interventions and social distancing measures. Computer simulation models play an essential role in informing public policy and evaluating pandemic preparedness plans. We have made the source code of this model publicly available to encourage its use and further development

Evaluation of vaccination strategies for SIR epidemics on random networks incorporating household structure

This paper is concerned with the analysis of vaccination strategies in a stochastic SIR (susceptible → infected → removed) model for the spread of an epidemic amongst a population of individuals with a random network of social contacts that is also partitioned into households. Under various vaccine action models, we consider both household-based vaccination schemes, in which the way in which individuals are chosen for vaccination depends on the size of the households in which they reside, and acquaintance vaccination, which targets individuals of high degree in the social network. For both types of vaccination scheme, assuming a large population with few initial infectives, we derive a threshold parameter which determines whether or not a large outbreak can occur and also the probability and fraction of the population infected by such an outbreak. The performance of these schemes is studied numerically, focusing on the influence of the household size distribution and the degree distribution of the social network. We find that acquaintance vaccination can significantly outperform the best household-based scheme if the degree distribution of the social network is heavy-tailed. For household-based schemes, when the vaccine coverage is insufficient to prevent a major outbreak and the vaccine is imperfect, we find situations in which both the probability and size of a major outbreak under the scheme which minimises the threshold parameter are \emph{larger} than in the scheme which maximises the threshold parameter

A new method for isolating and analysing coccospheres within sediment

This is the final version. Available on open access from nature Research via the DOI in this recordSize is a fundamental cellular trait that is important in determining phytoplankton physiological and ecological processes. Fossil coccospheres, the external calcite structure produced by the excretion of interlocking plates by the phytoplankton coccolithophores, can provide a rare window into cell size in the past. Coccospheres are delicate however and are therefore poorly preserved in sediment. We demonstrate a novel technique combining imaging flow cytometry and cross-polarised light (ISX+PL) to rapidly and reliably visually isolate and quantify the morphological characteristics of coccospheres from marine sediment by exploiting their unique optical and morphological properties. Imaging flow cytometry combines the morphological information provided by microscopy with high sample numbers associated with flow cytometry. High throughput imaging overcomes the constraints of labour-intensive manual microscopy and allows statistically robust analysis of morphological features and coccosphere concentration despite low coccosphere concentrations in sediments. Applying this technique to the fine-fraction of sediments, hundreds of coccospheres can be visually isolated quickly with minimal sample preparation. This approach has the potential to enable rapid processing of down-core sediment records and/or high spatial coverage from surface sediments and may prove valuable in investigating the interplay between climate change and coccolithophore physiological/ecological response.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)Shell Research LtdEuropean Union Horizon 202

Reproducibility in modeling and simulation of the knee:Academic, industry, and regulatory perspectives

Stakeholders in the modeling and simulation (M&amp;S) community organized a workshop at the 2019 Annual Meeting of the Orthopaedic Research Society (ORS) entitled “Reproducibility in Modeling and Simulation of the Knee: Academic, Industry, and Regulatory Perspectives.” The goal was to discuss efforts among these stakeholders to address irreproducibility in M&amp;S focusing on the knee joint. An academic representative from a leading orthopedic hospital in the United States described a multi-institutional, open effort funded by the National Institutes of Health to assess model reproducibility in computational knee biomechanics. A regulatory representative from the United States Food and Drug Administration indicated the necessity of standards for reproducibility to increase utility of M&amp;S in the regulatory setting. An industry representative from a major orthopedic implant company emphasized improving reproducibility by addressing indeterminacy in personalized modeling through sensitivity analyses, thereby enhancing preclinical evaluation of joint replacement technology. Thought leaders in the M&amp;S community stressed the importance of data sharing to minimize duplication of efforts. A survey comprised 103 attendees revealed strong support for the workshop and for increasing emphasis on computational modeling at future ORS meetings. Nearly all survey respondents (97%) considered reproducibility to be an important issue. Almost half of respondents (45%) tried and failed to reproduce the work of others. Two-thirds of respondents (67%) declared that individual laboratories are most responsible for ensuring reproducible research whereas 44% thought that journals are most responsible. Thought leaders and survey respondents emphasized that computational models must be reproducible and credible to advance knee M&amp;S.</p

PLoS One

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association of rainy season with overall dengue disease incidence and with the efficacy of the Sanofi Pasteur recombinant, live, attenuated, tetravalent vaccine (CYD-TDV) in two randomized, controlled multicenter phase III clinical trials in Asia and Latin America. METHODS: Rainy seasons were defined for each study site using climatological information from the World Meteorological Organization. The dengue attack rate in the placebo group for each study month was calculated as the number of symptomatic, virologically-confirmed dengue events in a given month divided by the number of participants at risk in the same month. Time-dependent Cox proportional hazard models were used to test whether rainy season was associated with dengue disease and whether it modified vaccine efficacy in each of the two trials and in both of the trials combined. FINDINGS: Rainy season, country, and age were all significantly associated with dengue disease in both studies. Vaccine efficacy did not change during the rainy season in any of the analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Although dengue transmission and exposure are expected to increase during the rainy season, our results indicate that CYD-TDV vaccine efficacy remains constant throughout the year in endemic regions

Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability

Systematic climate shifts have been linked to multidecadal variability in observed sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean1. These links are extensive, influencing a range of climate processes such as hurricane activity2 and African Sahel3, 4, 5 and Amazonian5 droughts. The variability is distinct from historical global-mean temperature changes and is commonly attributed to natural ocean oscillations6, 7, 8, 9, 10. A number of studies have provided evidence that aerosols can influence long-term changes in sea surface temperatures11, 12, but climate models have so far failed to reproduce these interactions6, 9 and the role of aerosols in decadal variability remains unclear. Here we use a state-of-the-art Earth system climate model to show that aerosol emissions and periods of volcanic activity explain 76 per cent of the simulated multidecadal variance in detrended 1860–2005 North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. After 1950, simulated variability is within observational estimates; our estimates for 1910–1940 capture twice the warming of previous generation models but do not explain the entire observed trend. Other processes, such as ocean circulation, may also have contributed to variability in the early twentieth century. Mechanistically, we find that inclusion of aerosol–cloud microphysical effects, which were included in few previous multimodel ensembles, dominates the magnitude (80 per cent) and the spatial pattern of the total surface aerosol forcing in the North Atlantic. Our findings suggest that anthropogenic aerosol emissions influenced a range of societally important historical climate events such as peaks in hurricane activity and Sahel drought. Decadal-scale model predictions of regional Atlantic climate will probably be improved by incorporating aerosol–cloud microphysical interactions and estimates of future concentrations of aerosols, emissions of which are directly addressable by policy actions