An agent-based model about the effects of fake news on a norovirus outbreak

Concern about health misinformation is longstanding, especially on the Internet. Using agent-based models, we considered the effects of such misinformation on a norovirus outbreak, and some methods for countering the possible impacts of ‘good’ and ‘bad’ health advice. The work explicitly models spread of physical disease and information (both online and offline) as two separate but interacting processes. The models have multiple stochastic elements; repeat model runs were made to identify parameter values that most consistently produced the desired target baseline scenario. Next, parameters were found that most consistently led to a scenario when outbreak severity was clearly made worse by circulating poor quality disease prevention advice. Strategies to counter ‘fake’ health news were tested. A 10% reduction in circulating bad advice or making at least 20% of people fully resistant to believing in and sharing bad health advice were effective thresholds to counteract the negative impacts of bad advice during a norovirus outbreak. How feasible it is to achieve these targets within communication networks (online and offline) should be explored

Clonally expanded human airway smooth muscle cells exhibit morphological and functional heterogeneity

Background: Mesenchyme-derived airway cell populations including airway smooth muscle (ASM) cells, fibroblasts and myofibroblasts play key roles in the pathogenesis of airway inflammation and remodeling. Phenotypic and functional characterisation of these cell populations are confounded by their heterogeneity in vitro. It is unclear which mechanisms underlie the creation of these different sub-populations. The study objectives were to investigate whether ASM cells are capable of clonal expansion and if so (i) what proportion possess this capability and (ii) do clonal populations exhibit variation in terms of morphology, phenotype, proliferation rates and pro-relaxant or pro-contractile signaling pathways. Methods: Early passage human ASM cells were subjected to single-cell cloning and their doubling time was recorded. Immunocytochemistry was performed to assess localization and levels of markers previously reported to be specifically associated with smooth muscle or fibroblasts. Finally functional assays were used to reveal differences between clonal populations specifically assessing mitogen-induced proliferation and pro-relaxant and pro-contractile signaling pathways. Results: Our studies provide evidence that a high proportion (58%) of single cells present within early passage human ASM cell cultures have the potential to create expanded cell populations. Despite being clonally-originated, morphological heterogeneity was still evident within these clonal populations as assessed by the range in expression of markers associated with smooth muscle cells. Functional diversity was observed between clonal populations with 10 μM isoproterenol-induced cyclic AMP responses ranging from 1.4 - 5.4 fold cf basal and bradykinin-induced inositol phosphate from 1.8 - 5.2 fold cf basal. Conclusion: In summary we show for the first time that primary human ASM cells are capable of clonal expansion and that the resulting clonal populations themselves exhibit phenotypic plasticity

Centennial-scale variability of the British ice sheet: implications for climate forcing and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during the last deglaciation

Evidence from paleoclimatic archives suggests that Earth's climate experienced rapid temperature changes associated with pronounced interhemispheric asymmetry during the last glacial period. Explanations for these climate excursions have converged on nonlinear interactions between ice sheets and the ocean's thermohaline circulation, but the driving mechanism remains to be identified. Here we use multidecadal marine records of faunal, oxygen isotope, and sediment proxies from the northeast Atlantic proximal to the western margins of the last glacial British Ice Sheet (BIS) to document the coupling between ice sheet dynamics, ocean circulation, and insolation changes. The core data reveal successions of short-lived (80-100 years), high-amplitude ice-rafted debris (IRD) events that were initiated up to 2000 years before the deposition of detrital carbonate during Heinrich events (HE) 1 and 2. Progressive disintegration of the BIS 19-16 kyr before present (B.P.) occurred in response to abrupt ocean-climate warmings that impinged on the northeast Atlantic during the early deglaciation. Peak IRD deposition recurs at 180-220 year intervals plausibly involving repeated breakup of glacial tidewater margins and fringing marine ice shelves. The early deglaciation culminated in a major meltwater pulse at ∼16.3 kyr B.P. followed by another discharge associated with HE1 some 300 years after. We conclude that temperature changes related to external forcing and marine heat transport caused a rapid response of the BIS and possibly other margins of the Eurasian Ice Sheet. Massive but short-lived meltwater surges influenced the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation thereby contributing to North Atlantic climate variability and bipolar climatic asymmetr

Millennial-scale surface and subsurface paleothermometry from the northeast Atlantic, 55-8 ka BP

We present high-resolution records of upper ocean temperatures derived from Mg/Ca ratios of surface-dwelling Globigerina bulloides and subsurface-dwelling Neogloboquadrina pachyderma sinistral and the relative abundance of N. pachyderma sinistral for the period 55-8 ka BP from NE Atlantic sediment core MD01-2461. Millennial-scale temporal variability and longer-term trends in these records enable us to develop a detailed picture of past ocean conditions such as a weakening of thermocline intensity from marine isotope stage 3 (MIS 3) to the last glacial maximum (LGM). The correspondence of all temperature proxies and convergence of paired oxygen isotope (δ18O) records from both planktonic species implies a breakdown in the thermocline and year-round mixing of the upper water column through the LGM, perhaps related to decreasing insolation and additional cooling in association with the expansion of the circum-North Atlantic ice sheets. Millennial-scale divergence in surface and subsurface temperatures and δ18O across the last glacial correspond to meltwater release and the development of a strong halocline associated with both Heinrich (H) events and instabilities of the NW European ice sheet. During such episodes, G. bulloides Mg/Ca appears to record ambient, even warming summer sea surface temperatures across H events while the other proxies record maximum cooling

The Optical/Near-IR Colors of Broad Absorption Line Quasars, Including the Candidate Radio-Loud BAL Quasar 1556+3517

A candidate radio-loud broad absorption line quasar (RLBAL) has been reported by Becker et al. (1997). We present JHK observations of this object and three other radio-detected BALs taken with the new Michigan-Dartmouth-MIT/Ohio State/Aladdin IR Camera (MOSAIC) on the KPNO 4-meter. The candidate RLBAL 1556+3517 has B-K=6.63, redder than all but one or two known z>1 quasars. This strongly suggests the observed continuum of this quasar is reddened by dust. Even when this extreme reddening is taken into account 1556+3517 is still probably radio-loud, although near-IR spectroscopy to measure its Balmer decrement will be needed to verify this. In addition, since it is a flat-spectrum object, VLBI observations to determine the extent (if any) to which beaming affects our estimate of its radio luminosity will be needed before 1556+3517 can be unequivocally declared a radio-loud BAL. We also use our data and data from the literature to show that optically selected BALs as a class have B-K colors consistent with the observed distribution for optically selected quasars as a whole. Thus there is currently no evidence that the tendency of optically selected BALs to be preferentially radio-intermediate (Hooper, Francis, & Impey 1993) is due to extinction artificially lowering estimated BAL optical luminosities. However, as most quasar surveys, both radio and optical, would be insensitive to a population of reddened radio-quiet BALs, the existence of a large population of reddened BALs similar to 1556+3517 cannot yet be ruled out.Comment: Accepted to ApJ Letters; 10 pages including 1 figure and 2 tables. This version somewhat revised from initial submission, with a better figur

Traditional and emerging indicators of cardiovascular risk in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

With the increased cardiovascular (CV) morbidity and mortality in subjects with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), there is a priority to identify those patients at increased risk of cardiovascular disease. Stable patients with COPD (n = 185) and controls with a smoking history (n = 106) underwent aortic pulse wave velocity (PWV), blood pressure (BP) and skin autofluorescence (AF) at clinical stability. Blood was sent for fasting lipids, soluble receptor for advanced glycation end products (sRAGE) and CV risk prediction scores were calculated. More patients (18%) had a self-reported history of CV disease than controls (8%), p = 0.02, whilst diabetes was similar (14% and 10%), p = 0.44. Mean (SD) skin AF was greater in patients: 3.1 (0.5) AU than controls 2.8 (0.6) AU, p < 0.001. Aortic PWV was greater in patients: 10.2 (2.3) m/s than controls: 9.6 (2.0) m/s, p = 0.02 despite similar BP. The CV risk prediction scores did not differentiate between patients and controls nor were the individual components of the scores different. The sRAGE levels were not statistically different. We present different indicators of CV risk alongside each other in well-defined subjects with and without COPD. Two non-invasive biomarkers associated with future CV burden: skin AF and aortic PWV are both significantly greater in patients with COPD compared to the controls. The traditional CV prediction scores used in the general population were not statistically different. We provide new data to suggest that alternative approaches for optimal CV risk detection should be employed in COPD management

Multi-elemental composition of authigenic carbonates in benthic foraminifera from the eastern Bering Sea continental margin (International Ocean Discovery Program Site U1343)

Bering Sea sediments represent exceptional archives, offering the potential to study past climates and biogeochemistry at a high resolution. However, abundant hydrocarbons of microbial origin, especially along the eastern Bering Sea continental margin, can hinder the applicability of palaeoceanographic proxies based on calcareous foraminifera, due to the formation of authigenic carbonates. Nonetheless, authigenic carbonates may also bear unique opportunities to reconstruct changes in the sedimentary redox environment. Here we use a suite of visual and geochemical evidence from single-specimens of the shallow infaunal benthic foraminiferal species Elphidium batialis Saidova (1961), recovered from International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Site U1343 in the eastern Bering Sea, to investigate the influence of authigenic carbonates on the foraminiferal trace metal composition. Our results demonstrate that foraminiferal calcite tests act as a nucleation template for secondary carbonate precipitation, altering their geochemistry where organoclastic sulphate reduction and anaerobic oxidation of methane cause the formation of low- and high-Mg calcite, respectively. The authigenic carbonates can occur as encrusting on the outside and/or inside of foraminiferal tests, in the form of recrystallization of the test wall, or as banding along natural laminations within the foraminiferal test walls. In addition to Mg, authigenic carbonates are enriched in U/Ca, Mn/Ca, Fe/Ca, and Sr/Ca, depending on the redox environment that they were formed in. Our results demonstrate that site-specific U/Ca thresholds are a promising tool to distinguish between diagenetically altered and pristine foraminiferal samples, important for palaeoceanographic reconstructions utilising the primary foraminiferal geochemistry. Consistent with previous studies, U/Mn ratios of foraminifera at IODP Site U1343 increase according to their degree of diagenetic alteration, suggesting a potential response of authigenic U/Mn to the microbial activity in turn linked to the sedimentary redox environment

IODP Expedition 361 – Southern African Climates and Agulhas LGM Density Profile

IODP Expedition 361 drilled six sites (U1474 – U1479) on the southeast African margin and the Indian-Atlantic ocean gateway from 30 January to 31 March 2016. The sites, situated in the Mozambique Channel, Natal Valley, Agulhas Plateau, and Cape Basin, were targeted to reconstruct the history of the Greater Agulhas Current System over the past ~5 Ma. More specifically, the main objectives of Expedition 361 were: (i) to establish the sensitivity of the Agulhas Current to climate change during the Plio-Pleistocene in association with transient to long-term changes of high-latitude climates, tropical heat budgets, and the monsoon system; (ii) to determine the dynamics of the Indian-Atlantic gateway circulation in association with changing wind fields and migrating ocean fronts; (iii) to examine the connection of the Agulhas leakage and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation; (iv) to address the influence of the Agulhas Current on African terrestrial climates, notably rainfall patterns and river runoff, and potential links to hominid evolution. Additionally, the expedition set out to fulfill the needs of the Ancillary Project Letter, consisting of high-resolution interstitial water samples aiming at constraining the temperature and salinity profiles of the ocean during the Last Glacial Maximum. In total, 5175 m of core was recovered (average recovery 102 %) from a region poorly represented in the database of drill sites for scientific purposes. Physical property records derived from core-logging of the recovered sequences allowed complete spliced stratigraphic sections to be generated that span the interval of 0 to between ~0.13 and 7 Ma. A high-resolution program of interstitial water samples was carried out at Sites U1474, U1475, U1476, and U1478. The expedition made major strides toward fulfilling the scientific objectives despite of ~11 days of lost operational time due to weather conditions, a medical evacuation, and delays in attaining the necessary permissions to operate in Mozambique exclusive economic zone waters. Site U1474 (3034 meters below sea level [mbsl]), located in the northernmost Natal Valley, consists of eight holes ranging in penetration depth from 3.1 to 254.1 m drilling depth below seafloor (dsf). A total of 910.8 m of sediment was recovered, predominantly consisting of foraminifer-bearing clay with nannofossils. Based on the shipboard bio- and magnetistratigraphic datums, the sedimentary sequence extends back to the late Miocene (~6.2 Ma). This record represents the only site situated beneath the main flow of the fully constituted Agulhas Current and therefore provides the opportunity for high-resolution climate reconstructions of Agulhas Current warm-water transports and upstream variability that may allow the identification of connections between Agulhas leakage and its headwater variability. It also holds significant potential to investigate the connections between southern African terrestrial climates and southeast Indian Ocean heat budgets and the links to the cultural evolution of early modern humans. Site U1475 (2669 mbsl), located on the southwestern flank of the Agulhas Plateau, consists of six holes ranging in penetration depth from 1.5 to 277.0 m dsf. A total of 1015.9 m of sediment was recovered, predominantly consisting of nannofossil ooze. Shipboard bio- and magnetistratigraphic data suggest that the sedimentary sequence extends back to the late Miocene (~7 Ma). This record provides the opportunity for high-resolution climate reconstructions of the Agulhas Return Current and connections with the Sub-Tropical Front, productivity, and deep-water circulation. Site U1476 (2165 mbsl), located at the northern entrance of the Mozambique Channel, consists of five holes ranging in penetration depth from 5.7 to 234.8 m dsf. A total of 873.8 m of sediment was recovered, predominantly consisting of foraminifer-rich nannofossil ooze. The sedimentary sequence extends back to the late Miocene (~6.9 Ma), as inferred from the shiboard bio- and magnetostratigraphic data. The site boasts excellent biostratigraphy and notably cyclic physical properties. It therefore provides the opportunity for high-resolution reconstructions of tropical faunal assemblages, which will allow identification of connections be¬tween Agulhas leakage and its headwater variability. It also holds significant potential to investigate the connections between southern African terrestrial climates and southeast Indian Ocean heat budgets and thermocline and deep-water variability with likely links to the development of the Indonesian Throughflow as well as aridification of east Africa. Because of the excellent preservation of foraminifers, this an ideal site for a long record of surface-ocean pH from boron isotopes. Site U1477 (429 mbsl), located in the western Mozambique Channel east of the Zambezi River delta, consists of three holes ranging in penetration depth from 119.4 to 181.2 m dsf. A total of 490.0 m of sediment was recovered, predominantly consisting of sandy clay with foraminifers and nannofossils. Based on correlations to a nearby 14C dated cores and two biostratigrahic markers, the sedimentary sequence extends back to the Late Pleistocene (~0.13 Ma). The extreme accumulation rate (~1 m/ky) at this site provides the opportunity for exceptionally high resolution reconstructions of terrestrial climate and thermocline characteristics during the last glacial cycle. Site U1478 (488 mbsl), located in the western Mozambique Channel east of the Limpopo River delta, consists of four holes ranging in penetration depth from 216.0 to 248.4 m dsf. A total of 922.1 m of sediment was recovered, predominantly consisting of sand or clayey/sandy silt with foraminifers and nannofossils. The shipboard age-model suggests that the sedimentary sequence extends back to the Pliocene (~4 Ma). This record provides the opportunity for high-resolution climate reconstructions of faunal, biogeochemical, and terrigenous tracers that are characteristic of the upper reaches of the Agulhas Current warm-water transports that will allow connections between Agul¬has leakage and its headwater variability. The site also holds significant potential to investigate the connections between southern African terrestrial climates and southeast Indian Ocean heat budgets, and examine the relationship between such climate variability and early human evolution. Site U1479 (2615 mbsl), located in Cape Basin, consists of nine holes ranging in penetration depth from 1.0 to 300.7 m dsf. A total of 963.1 m of sediment was recovered, predominantly consisting of nannofossil ooze with or without foraminifers. According to the shipboard bio- and magnetostratigraphy-based age model, the sedimentary sequence extends back to the late Miocene (~7 Ma). This record represents the only site situated in the immediate Agulhas leakage pathway. It will therefore provide the opportunity for high-resolution climate reconstructions of the leakage and temporal comparisons with deep-water circulation