Forecast verification of the Current Icing Potential (CIP) product to predict observed lightning in the vicinity of U.S. Spaceports

Government spaceports employ extensive lightning detection networks that may not be available at commercial spaceports. As the number of commercial space operations increases, the Federal Aviation Administration identified the need for a method to diagnose the threat of triggered lightning at commercial spaceports without in-situ measurements. Charge separation that produces lightning is generated by the existence of water in solid and liquid states interacting. This mixed phase environment is also conducive to structural aircraft icing. Anecdotal observations of the Aviation Weather Center’s Current Icing Potential (CIP) numerical weather prediction model indicated a potentially high correlation between lightning activity and forecast icing potential. Analysis of three years of USPLN lightning data at spaceports across the United States provided a measure of the lightning frequency at these locations. Relatively high statistical correlations between the CIP and lightning activity in both space and time were discovered, but so were negative correlations. Since it is not possible to define a correlation when one field is constant, such as CIP values greater than zero but with no observed lightning events, a forecast verification was conducted using a traditional contingency table of forecasted (CIP) versus observed lightning events. Forecast verification studies using CIP to predict lightning, and previous lightning to predict future lightning (a persistence forecast), were performed. Case studies were also conducted to determine the CIP’s ability to diagnose lightning hazards, particularly lightning initiation, in a hypothetical operational setting. The forecast verification study, covering two years of lightning activity, determined the CIP’s ability to diagnose lightning hazards was quite limited due to extensive overprediction. Critical Success Index (CSI) scores for CIP as a lightning predictor were less than 15% in all cases. In comparison, lightning persistence forecasts achieved CSI scores closer to 40%. During the case study analyses the CIP demonstrated a number of weaknesses. The CIP: 1) failed to capture lightning initiation, 2) overpredicted the extent of lightning, 3) missed whole regions of lightning, and 4) failed to capture lightning cessation. Queries of an aviation hazard database developed by ERAU and NASA showed CIP over predicted convection in general, not just lightning. It is difficult to draw any conclusions on the CIP’s ability to diagnose lightning triggered by a launch vehicle due to insufficient documented cases of this hazard

The impact of business accelerators and incubators in the UK

This report explores how incubators and accelerators impact the startups they support, and which types of support drive this impact. It also examines how incubators and accelerators affect the wider business ecosystem. The report: - examines the objectives of UK accelerators and incubators, and the barriers to reaching these objectives - determines which types of support offered by incubators and accelerators (for example provision of workspace, mentoring, funding or training) add the most value to participating startups - presents a “theory of change” explaining how these types of support make their impact - investigates how Local Enterprise partnerships and Growth Hubs interact with or support accelerators and incubators in their region, and how this interaction helps both parties achieve their objective

Prescribing unproven cancer drugs: Physician perspectives on expanded access and right to try

BACKGROUND: For gravely ill patients who have no treatment options and who are ineligible for clinical trials, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) established the Expanded Access Program (EAP). Motivated by efforts to weaken FDA regulation and sold as providing greater access to experimental drugs, the federal Right to Try Act (RTT) was passed in 2017. It reduces FDA oversight by not requiring physicians to report safety data and foregoes approval of protocols by local institutional review boards. METHODS: This study explored the views of 17 neuro-oncologists from 15 different academic medical centers with varying experience with EAP and RTT using convenience sampling. We conducted semi-structured interviews and qualitative analysis to identify emerging themes. RESULTS: Most oncologists were confused between the two pathways, had little familiarity with RTT, and had little knowledge about experimental medicine available through either pathway. Oncologists reported a preference of enrolling patients in clinical trials over off-trial preapproval pathways with scant data. As a result, oncologists revealed concerns over properly evaluating risks for their patients. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that neuro-oncologists need better resources and clearer mechanisms at their institutions to help navigate EAP and RTT in order to counsel patients interested in experimental medicine

Synthesis of Aryl Ketoamides via Aryne Insertion into Imides

An insertion of arenes into both imides and anhydrides via reactive aryne intermediates is presented. The reaction is performed under exceptionally mild conditions, and the corresponding ketoamide products are amenable to derivatization to deliver a variety of synthetically useful motifs such as quinolones, indoles, and ketoanilines

An empirical determination of the dust mass absorption coefficient, κd, using the Herschel Reference Survey

We use the published photometry and spectroscopy of 22 galaxies in the Herschel Reference Survey to determine that the value of the dust mass absorption coefficient κ d at a wavelength of 500 μm is κ500 = (0.051 +0.070 −0.026) m^2 kg^-1. We do so by taking advantage of the fact that the dust-to-metals ratio in the interstellar medium of galaxies appears to be constant. We argue that our value for κd supersedes that of James et al. (2002) – who pioneered this approach for determining κd – because we take advantage of superior data, and account for a number of significant systematic effects that they did not consider. We comprehensively incorporate all methodological and observational contributions to establish the uncertainty on our value, which represents a marked improvement on the oft-quoted ‘order-of-magnitude’ uncertainty on κd . We find no evidence that the value of κd differs significantly between galaxies, or that it correlates with any other measured or derived galaxy properties. We note, however, that the availability of data limits our sample to relatively massive (10^9.7 < Mstar < 10&11.0 Msol ), high metallicity (8.61 < [12 + log 10 O/H] < 8.86) galaxies; future work will allow us to investigate a wider range of systems

Meijer\u27s Makers

This Innovation Portfolio is the result of a semester long project that examined the role of a regional campus in its community: more specifically, examining how the GVSU Meijer Campus can best integrate into and support its community. The Meijer Campus was originally designed to engage adult learners of the Holland business community. Our team sought out how to reinvigorate the campus through innovating based on this original goal. During the winter of 2017, our team undertook a series of steps to better understand the needs of the Holland community, considering how to design the Meijer Campus to fit those needs. Interviews with stakeholders and secondary research led us to common insights that were then composed into innovations and later prototypes. The final prototype was the Meijer Maker’s Design Lab, a gymnasium for the mind

Changes in biological productivity along the northwest African margin over the past 20,000 years

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Paleoceanography 31 (2016): 185–202, doi:10.1002/2015PA002862.The intertropical convergence zone and the African monsoon system are highly sensitive to climate forcing at orbital and millennial timescales. Both systems influence the strength and direction of the trade winds along northwest Africa and thus directly impact coastal upwelling. Sediment cores from the northwest African margin record upwelling-related changes in biological productivity connected to changes in regional and hemispheric climate. We present records of 230Th-normalized biogenic opal and Corg fluxes using a meridional transect of four cores from 19°N–31°N along the northwest African margin to examine changes in paleoproductivity since the last glacial maximum. We find large changes in biogenic fluxes synchronous with changes in eolian fluxes calculated using end-member modeling, suggesting that paleoproductivity and dust fluxes were strongly coupled, likely linked by changes in wind strength. Opal and Corg fluxes increase at all sites during Heinrich Stadial 1 and the Younger Dryas, consistent with an overall intensification of the trade winds, and changes in the meridional flux gradient indicate a southward wind shift at these times. Biogenic fluxes were lowest, and the meridional flux gradients were weakest during the African Humid Period when the monsoon was invigorated due to precessional changes, with greater rainfall and weaker trade winds over northwest Africa. These results expand the spatial coverage of previous paleoproxy studies showing similar changes, and they provide support for modeling studies showing changes in wind strength and direction consistent with increased upwelling during abrupt coolings and decreased upwelling during the African Humid Period.NSF Grant Numbers: OCE-1103262, OCE-1030784, OCE-0402348; Center for Climate and Life2016-07-2

The Identification and Synthesis of Lead Apatite Minerals Formed in Lead Water Pipes

Phosphate is added to drinking water in the UK to minimise the release of lead from lead water pipes. The phosphate encourages the formation of insoluble lead apatites on the walls of the pipe. Hydroxylpyromorphite Pb5(PO4)3OH is the lead apatite that is most often used to model lead levels in tap water; however, its presence has not been confirmed. Our aims were to identify the lead pipe apatite and synthesise it. The synthetic mineral would then be used in future solubility studies to produce better predictions of lead levels in tap water. XRD and FTIR were used to characterise the minerals on a range of lead pipes. Pyromorphite and hydroxylpyromorphite were absent and instead a range of mixed calcium lead apatites were present. For every five lead ions in the general formula Pb5(PO4)3X between one and two ions were replaced with calcium and there was evidence of substitution of by either or . Calcium lead apatites with similar unit cell dimensions to those found on lead water pipes were then synthesised. The calcium : lead ratio in these reaction mixtures was in excess of 500 : 1 and the resulting crystals were shown by TEM to be nanosized rods and flakes. The synthetic apatites that most closely resembled the unit cell dimensions of the apatites on lead water pipes were shown to be Pb3.4Ca1.3(PO4)3Cl0.03OH0.97, Pb3.6Ca1.2(PO4)3Cl0.07OH0.93, and Pb3.6Ca1.2(PO4)3Cl0.27OH0.73

National trends in the treatment of urinary tract infections among Veterans’ Affairs Community Living Center residents

Objective: To describe urinary tract infection (UTI) treatment among Veterans’ Affairs (VA) Community Living Centers (CLCs) nationally and to assess related trends in antibiotic use. Design: Descriptive study. Setting and participants: All UTI episodes treated from 2013 through 2017 among residents in 110 VA CLCs. UTI episodes required collection of a urine culture, antibiotic treatment, and a UTI diagnosis code. UTI episodes were stratified into culture-positive and culture-negative episodes. Methods: Frequency and rate of antibiotic use were assessed for all UTI episodes overall and were stratified by culture-positive and culture-negative episodes. Joinpoint software was used for regression analyses of trends over time. Results: We identified 28,247 UTI episodes in 14,983 Veterans. The average age of Veterans was 75.7 years, and 95.9% were male. Approximately half of UTI episodes (45.7%) were culture positive and 25.7% were culture negative. Escherichia coli was recovered in 34.1% of culture-positive UTI episodes, followed by Proteus mirabilis and Klebsiellaspp, which were recovered in 24.5% and 17.4% of culture-positive UTI episodes, respectively. The rate of total antibiotic use in days of therapy (DOT) per 1,000 bed days decreased by 10.1% per year (95% CI, −13.6% to −6.5%) and fluoroquinolone use (ciprofloxacin or levofloxacin) decreased by 14.5% per year (95% CI, −20.6% to −7.8%) among UTI episodes overall. Similar reductions in rates of total antibiotic use and fluoroquinolone use were observed among culture-positive UTI episodes and among culture-negative UTI episodes. Conclusion: Over a 5-year period, antibiotic use for UTIs significantly decreased among VA CLCs, as did use of fluoroquinolones. Antibiotic stewardship efforts across VA CLCs should be applauded, and these efforts should continue