Dynamical Tests of a Deep-Learning Weather Prediction Model

Global deep-learning weather prediction models have recently been shown to produce forecasts that rival those from physics-based models run at operational centers. It is unclear whether these models have encoded atmospheric dynamics, or simply pattern matching that produces the smallest forecast error. Answering this question is crucial to establishing the utility of these models as tools for basic science. Here we subject one such model, Pangu-weather, to a set of four classical dynamical experiments that do not resemble the model training data. Localized perturbations to the model output and the initial conditions are added to steady time-averaged conditions, to assess the propagation speed and structural evolution of signals away from the local source. Perturbing the model physics by adding a steady tropical heat source results in a classical Matsuno--Gill response near the heating, and planetary waves that radiate into the extratropics. A localized disturbance on the winter-averaged North Pacific jet stream produces realistic extratropical cyclones and fronts, including the spontaneous emergence of polar lows. Perturbing the 500hPa height field alone yields adjustment from a state of rest to one of wind--pressure balance over ~6 hours. Localized subtropical low pressure systems produce Atlantic hurricanes, provided the initial amplitude exceeds about 5 hPa, and setting the initial humidity to zero eliminates hurricane development. We conclude that the model encodes realistic physics in all experiments, and suggest it can be used as a tool for rapidly testing ideas before using expensive physics-based models

Characteristics and rarity of the strong 1940s westerly wind event over the Amundsen Sea, West Antarctica

Glaciers in the Amundsen Sea Embayment of West Antarctica are rapidly retreating and contributing to sea level rise. Ice loss is occurring primarily via exposure to warm ocean water, which varies in response to local wind variability. There is evidence that retreat was initiated in the mid-20th century, but the perturbation that may have triggered retreat remains unknown. A leading hypothesis is that large pressure and wind anomalies in the 1940s drove exceptionally strong oceanic ice-shelf melting. However, the characteristics, drivers, and rarity of the atmospheric event remain poorly constrained. We investigate the 1940s atmospheric event using paleoclimate reconstructions and climate model simulations. The reconstructions show that large westerly wind anomalies occurred from ∼1938–1942, a combined response to the very large El Niño event from 1940–1942 and other variability beginning years earlier. Climate model simulations provide evidence that events of similar magnitude and duration may occur tens to hundreds of times per 10 kyr of internal climate variability (∼0.2 to 2.5 occurrences per century). Our results suggest that the 1940s westerly event is unlikely to have been exceptional enough to be the sole explanation for the initiation of Amundsen Sea glacier retreat. Additional factors are likely needed to explain the onset of retreat in West Antarctica, such as naturally arising variability in ocean conditions prior to the 1940s or anthropogenically driven trends since the 1940s.</p

A data assimilation approach to last millennium temperature field reconstruction using a limited high-sensitivity proxy network

The authors acknowledge support from the Climate Program Office of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA grants NA18OAR4310420 to KJA, NA18OAR4310426 to JEG and FZ, and NA18OAR4310422 to GJH). GJH also acknowledges support from the NSF through grant AGS–1702423. JMK was partially supported by NSF grant AGS-1803946. JET and JMK acknowledge support from NSF grant #AGS-1602301 and Heising655 Simons Foundation grant #2016-05.We use the Northern Hemisphere Tree-Ring Network Development (NTREND) tree-ring database to examine the effects of using a small, highly-sensitive proxy network for paleotemperature data assimilation over the last millennium. We first evaluate our methods using pseudo-proxy experiments. These indicate that spatial assimilations using this network are skillful in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere and improve on previous NTREND reconstructions based on Point-by-Point regression. We also find our method is sensitive to climate model biases when the number of sites becomes small. Based on these experiments, we then assimilate the real NTREND network. To quantify model prior uncertainty, we produce 10 separate reconstructions, each assimilating a different climate model. These reconstructions are most dissimilar prior to 1100 CE, when the network becomes sparse, but show greater consistency as the network grows. Temporal variability is also underestimated before 1100 CE. Our assimilation method produces spatial uncertainty estimates and these identify treeline North America and eastern Siberia as regions that would most benefit from development of new millennial-length temperature-sensitive tree-ring records. We compare our multi-model mean reconstruction to five existing paleo-temperature products to examine the range of reconstructed responses to radiative forcing. We find substantial differences in the spatial patterns and magnitudes of reconstructed responses to volcanic eruptions and in the transition between the Medieval epoch and Little Ice Age. These extant uncertainties call for the development of a paleoclimate reconstruction intercomparison framework for systematically examining the consequences of proxy network composition and reconstruction methodology and for continued expansion of tree-ring proxy networks.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Spatial patterns of climate change across the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum

This study was supported by Heising–Simons Founda-tion Grants 2016-015 (to J.E.T.), 2016-011 (to M.L. and L.R.K.), 2016-013 (toA.R.), 2016-014 (to G.J.H.), and 2016-012 (to C.J.P.). R.D.M.W. and J.W.B.R. acknowledge funding from the European Research Council under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program Grant 805246. This material is based on work supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), which is a major facility sponsored by NSF Cooperative Agreement 1852977. Computing and data storage resources, including the Cheyenne supercomputer (https://arc.ucar.edu/knowledgebase/70549542), were provided by the Computational and Information Systems Laboratory at NCAR.The Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; 56 Ma) is one of our best geological analogs for understanding climate dynamics in a “greenhouse” world. However, proxy data representing the event are only available from select marine and terrestrial sedimentary sequences that are unevenly distributed across Earth’s surface, limiting our view of the spatial patterns of climate change. Here, we use paleoclimate data assimilation (DA) to combine climate model and proxy information and create a spatially complete reconstruction of the PETM and the climate state that precedes it (“PETM-DA”). Our data-constrained results support strong polar amplification, which in the absence of an extensive cryosphere, is related to temperature feedbacks and loss of seasonal snow on land. The response of the hydrological cycle to PETM warming consists of a narrowing of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, off-equatorial drying, and an intensification of seasonal monsoons and winter storm tracks. Many of these features are also seen in simulations of future climate change under increasing anthropogenic emissions. Since the PETM-DA yields a spatially complete estimate of surface air temperature, it yields a rigorous estimate of global mean temperature change (5.6 ∘C; 5.4 ∘C to 5.9 ∘C, 95% CI) that can be used to calculate equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). We find that PETM ECS was 6.5 ∘C (5.7 ∘C to 7.4 ∘C, 95% CI), which is much higher than the present-day range. This supports the view that climate sensitivity increases substantially when greenhouse gas concentrations are high.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Additions to the Last Millennium Reanalysis Multi-Proxy Database

Progress in paleoclimatology increasingly occurs via data syntheses. We describe additions to a collection prepared for use in paleoclimate state estimation, specifically the Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR). The 2290 additional series include 2152 tree ring chronologies and 138 other series. They supplement the collection used previously and together form a database titled LMRdb 1.0.0. The additional data draws from lake core, ice core, coral, speleothem, and tree ring archives, using published data primarily from the NOAA Paleoclimatology archive and a set of tree ring width chronologies standardized from raw International Tree Ring Data Bank ring width series. In contrast to many previous paleo compilations, the data were not selected (screened) on the basis of their environmental correlation, multi-century length, or other attributes. The inclusion of proxies sensitive to moisture and other environmental variables expands their use in data assimilation. A preliminary calibration using linear regression with mean annual temperature reveals characteristics of the proxy series and their relationship to temperature, as well as the noise and error characteristics of the records. The additional records are structured as individual files in the NOAA Paleoclimatology format and archived at NOAA Paleoclimatology (Anderson et al. 2018) and will continue to be improved and expanded as part of the LMR Project. The additions represent a four-fold increase in the number of records available for assimilation, provide expanded geographic coverage, and add additional proxy variables. Applications include data assimilation, proxy system model development, and paleoclimate reconstruction using climate field reconstruction and other methods

The mass-metallicity relation at z~1-2 and its dependence on star formation rate

We present a new measurement of the gas-phase mass-metallicity relation (MZR), and its dependence on star formation rates (SFRs) at 1.3 < z < 2.3. Our sample comprises 1056 galaxies with a mean redshift of z = 1.9, identified from the Hubble Space Telescope Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3) grism spectroscopy in the Cosmic Assembly Near-Infrared Deep Extragalactic Survey (CANDELS) and the WFC3 Infrared Spectroscopic Parallel Survey (WISP). This sample is four times larger than previous metallicity surveys at z ~ 2, and reaches an order of magnitude lower in stellar mass (10^8 M_sun). Using stacked spectra, we find that the MZR evolves by 0.3 dex relative to z ~ 0.1. Additionally, we identify a subset of 49 galaxies with high signal-to-noise (SNR) spectra and redshifts between 1.3 < z < 1.5, where H-alpha emission is observed along with [OIII] and [OII]. With accurate measurements of SFR in these objects, we confirm the existence of a mass-metallicity-SFR (M-Z-SFR) relation at high redshifts. These galaxies show systematic differences from the local M-Z-SFR relation, which vary depending on the adopted measurement of the local relation. However, it remains difficult to ascertain whether these differences could be due to redshift evolution, as the local M-Z-SFR relation is poorly constrained at the masses and SFRs of our sample. Lastly, we reproduced our sample selection in the IllustrisTNG hydrodynamical simulation, demonstrating that our line flux limit lowers the normalization of the simulated MZR by 0.2 dex. We show that the M-Z-SFR relation in IllustrisTNG has an SFR dependence that is too steep by a factor of around three.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ; 41 pages, 20 figure

Effects of antiplatelet therapy on stroke risk by brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases: subgroup analyses of the RESTART randomised, open-label trial

Background Findings from the RESTART trial suggest that starting antiplatelet therapy might reduce the risk of recurrent symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage compared with avoiding antiplatelet therapy. Brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases (such as cerebral microbleeds) are associated with greater risks of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage. We did subgroup analyses of the RESTART trial to explore whether these brain imaging features modify the effects of antiplatelet therapy

Oligodendroglial neoplasms with ganglioglioma-like maturation: a diagnostic pitfall

Although oligodendroglial neoplasms are traditionally considered purely glial, increasing evidence suggests that they are capable of neuronal or neurocytic differentiation. Nevertheless, ganglioglioma-like foci (GGLF) have not been previously described. Herein, we report seven examples where the primary differential diagnosis was a ganglioglioma with an oligodendroglial component. These five male and two female patients ranged in age from 29 to 63 (median 44) years at initial presentation and neuroimaging features were those of diffuse gliomas in general. At presentation, the glial component was oligodendroglioma in six and oligoastrocytoma in one; one was low-grade and six were anaplastic. A sharp demarcation from adjacent GGLF was common, although some intermingling was always present. The GGLF included enlarged dysmorphic and occasionally binucleate ganglion cells, Nissl substance, expression of neuronal antigens, GFAP-positive astrocytic elements, and low Ki-67 labeling indices. In contrast to classic ganglioglioma, however, cases lacked eosinophilic granular bodies and CD34-positive tumor cells. Scattered bizarre astrocytes were also common and one case had focal neurocytic differentiation. By FISH analysis, five cases showed 1p/19q codeletion. In the four cases with deletions and ample dysmorphic ganglion cells for analysis, the deletions were found in both components. At last follow-up, two patients suffered recurrences, one developed radiation necrosis mimicking recurrence, and one died of disease 7.5 years after initial surgery. We conclude that GGLF represents yet another form of neuronal differentiation in oligodendroglial neoplasms. Recognition of this pattern will prevent a misdiagnosis of ganglioglioma with its potential for under-treatment

Analysis of the African coelacanth genome sheds light on tetrapod evolution

It was a zoological sensation when a living specimen of the coelacanth was first discovered in 1938, as this lineage of lobe-finned fish was thought to have gone extinct 70 million years ago. The modern coelacanth looks remarkably similar to many of its ancient relatives, and its evolutionary proximity to our own fish ancestors provides a glimpse of the fish that first walked on land. Here we report the genome sequence of the African coelacanth, Latimeria chalumnae. Through a phylogenomic analysis, we conclude that the lungfish, and not the coelacanth, is the closest living relative of tetrapods. Coelacanth protein-coding genes are significantly more slowly evolving than those of tetrapods, unlike other genomic features . Analyses of changes in genes and regulatory elements during the vertebrate adaptation to land highlight genes involved in immunity, nitrogen excretion and the development of fins, tail, ear, eye, brain, and olfaction. Functional assays of enhancers involved in the fin-to-limb transition and in the emergence of extra-embryonic tissues demonstrate the importance of the coelacanth genome as a blueprint for understanding tetrapod evolution

Effects of antiplatelet therapy after stroke due to intracerebral haemorrhage (RESTART): a randomised, open-label trial

Background: Antiplatelet therapy reduces the risk of major vascular events for people with occlusive vascular disease, although it might increase the risk of intracranial haemorrhage. Patients surviving the commonest subtype of intracranial haemorrhage, intracerebral haemorrhage, are at risk of both haemorrhagic and occlusive vascular events, but whether antiplatelet therapy can be used safely is unclear. We aimed to estimate the relative and absolute effects of antiplatelet therapy on recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage and whether this risk might exceed any reduction of occlusive vascular events. Methods: The REstart or STop Antithrombotics Randomised Trial (RESTART) was a prospective, randomised, open-label, blinded endpoint, parallel-group trial at 122 hospitals in the UK. We recruited adults (≥18 years) who were taking antithrombotic (antiplatelet or anticoagulant) therapy for the prevention of occlusive vascular disease when they developed intracerebral haemorrhage, discontinued antithrombotic therapy, and survived for 24 h. Computerised randomisation incorporating minimisation allocated participants (1:1) to start or avoid antiplatelet therapy. We followed participants for the primary outcome (recurrent symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage) for up to 5 years. We analysed data from all randomised participants using Cox proportional hazards regression, adjusted for minimisation covariates. This trial is registered with ISRCTN (number ISRCTN71907627). Findings: Between May 22, 2013, and May 31, 2018, 537 participants were recruited a median of 76 days (IQR 29–146) after intracerebral haemorrhage onset: 268 were assigned to start and 269 (one withdrew) to avoid antiplatelet therapy. Participants were followed for a median of 2·0 years (IQR [1·0– 3·0]; completeness 99·3%). 12 (4%) of 268 participants allocated to antiplatelet therapy had recurrence of intracerebral haemorrhage compared with 23 (9%) of 268 participants allocated to avoid antiplatelet therapy (adjusted hazard ratio 0·51 [95% CI 0·25–1·03]; p=0·060). 18 (7%) participants allocated to antiplatelet therapy experienced major haemorrhagic events compared with 25 (9%) participants allocated to avoid antiplatelet therapy (0·71 [0·39–1·30]; p=0·27), and 39 [15%] participants allocated to antiplatelet therapy had major occlusive vascular events compared with 38 [14%] allocated to avoid antiplatelet therapy (1·02 [0·65–1·60]; p=0·92). Interpretation: These results exclude all but a very modest increase in the risk of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage with antiplatelet therapy for patients on antithrombotic therapy for the prevention of occlusive vascular disease when they developed intracerebral haemorrhage. The risk of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage is probably too small to exceed the established benefits of antiplatelet therapy for secondary prevention