Synthesising Strategy Improvement and Recursive Algorithms for Solving 2.5 Player Parity Games

2.5 player parity games combine the challenges posed by 2.5 player reachability games and the qualitative analysis of parity games. These two types of problems are best approached with different types of algorithms: strategy improvement algorithms for 2.5 player reachability games and recursive algorithms for the qualitative analysis of parity games. We present a method that - in contrast to existing techniques - tackles both aspects with the best suited approach and works exclusively on the 2.5 player game itself. The resulting technique is powerful enough to handle games with several million states

Transient Reward Approximation for Continuous-Time Markov Chains

We are interested in the analysis of very large continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) with many distinct rates. Such models arise naturally in the context of reliability analysis, e.g., of computer network performability analysis, of power grids, of computer virus vulnerability, and in the study of crowd dynamics. We use abstraction techniques together with novel algorithms for the computation of bounds on the expected final and accumulated rewards in continuous-time Markov decision processes (CTMDPs). These ingredients are combined in a partly symbolic and partly explicit (symblicit) analysis approach. In particular, we circumvent the use of multi-terminal decision diagrams, because the latter do not work well if facing a large number of different rates. We demonstrate the practical applicability and efficiency of the approach on two case studies.Comment: Accepted for publication in IEEE Transactions on Reliabilit

Lazy Probabilistic Model Checking without Determinisation

The bottleneck in the quantitative analysis of Markov chains and Markov decision processes against specifications given in LTL or as some form of nondeterministic B\"uchi automata is the inclusion of a determinisation step of the automaton under consideration. In this paper, we show that full determinisation can be avoided: subset and breakpoint constructions suffice. We have implemented our approach---both explicit and symbolic versions---in a prototype tool. Our experiments show that our prototype can compete with mature tools like PRISM.Comment: 38 pages. Updated version for introducing the following changes: - general improvement on paper presentation; - extension of the approach to avoid full determinisation; - added proofs for such an extension; - added case studies; - updated old case studies to reflect the added extensio

Symblicit Exploration and Elimination for Probabilistic Model Checking

Binary decision diagrams can compactly represent vast sets of states, mitigating the state space explosion problem in model checking. Probabilistic systems, however, require multi-terminal diagrams storing rational numbers. They are inefficient for models with many distinct probabilities and for iterative numeric algorithms like value iteration. In this paper, we present a new "symblicit" approach to checking Markov chains and related probabilistic models: We first generate a decision diagram that symbolically collects all reachable states and their predecessors. We then concretise states one-by-one into an explicit partial state space representation. Whenever all predecessors of a state have been concretised, we eliminate it from the explicit state space in a way that preserves all relevant probabilities and rewards. We thus keep few explicit states in memory at any time. Experiments show that very large models can be model-checked in this way with very low memory consumption

Corporate Governance and Value Creation: Evidence from Private Equity

We examine deal-level data on private equity transactions in the UK initiated during the period 1996 to 2004 by mature private equity houses. We un-lever the deal-level equity return and adjust for (un-levered) return to quoted peers to extract a measure of "alpha" or abnormal performance of the deal. The alpha is significantly positive on average and robust during sector downturns. In the cross-section of deals, higher alpha is related to greater improvement in EBITDA to Sales ratio (margin) and greater growth in EBITDA multiple during the private phase, relative to that of quoted peers. In particular, deals with higher alpha either grow their margins more substantially, and/or grow multiples more substantially, whilst expanding their revenues only in line with the sector. Based on interviews with general partners involved with the deals, we find that deals with higher alpha and higher margin growth are associated with greater intensity of engagement of private equity houses during the early phase of the deal, employment of value-creation initiatives for productivity and organic growth, and complementing top management with external support. Overall, our results are consistent with mature private equity houses creating value for portfolio companies through active ownership and governance