Advances and visions in large-scale hydrological modelling: findings from the 11th Workshop on Large-Scale Hydrological Modelling

Large-scale hydrological modelling has become increasingly wide-spread during the last decade. An annual workshop series on large-scale hydrological modelling has provided, since 1997, a forum to the German-speaking community for discussing recent developments and achievements in this research area. In this paper we present the findings from the 2007 workshop which focused on advances and visions in large-scale hydrological modelling. We identify the state of the art, difficulties and research perspectives with respect to the themes "sensitivity of model results", "integrated modelling" and "coupling of processes in hydrosphere, atmosphere and biosphere". Some achievements in large-scale hydrological modelling during the last ten years are presented together with a selection of remaining challenges for the future

Eavaluation of the hydrological cycle in the ECHAM5 model

This study investigates the impact of model resolution on the hydrological cycle in a suite of model simulations using a new version of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). Special attention is paid to the evaluation of precipitation on the regional scale by comparing model simulations with observational data in a number of catchments representing the major river systems on the earth in different climate zones. It is found that an increased vertical resolution, from 19 to 31 atmospheric layers, has a beneficial effect on simulated precipitation with respect to both the annual mean and the annual cycle. On the other hand, the influence of increased horizontal resolution, from T63 to T106, is comparatively small. Most of the improvements at higher vertical resolution, on the scale of a catchment, are due to large-scale moisture transport, whereas the impact of local water recycling through evapotranspiration is somewhat smaller. At high horizontal and vertical resolution (T106L31) the model captures most features of the observed hydrological cycle over land, and also the local and remote precipitation response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Major deficiencies are the overestimation of precipitation over the oceans, especially at higher vertical resolution, along steep mountain slopes and during the Asian summer monsoon season, whereas a dry bias exists over Australia. In addition, the model fails to reproduce the observed precipitation response to ENSO variability in the Indian Ocean and Africa. This might be related to missing coupled air–sea feedbacks in an AGCM forced with observed sea surface temperatures

AXL modulates extracellular matrix protein expression and is essential for invasion and metastasis in endometrial cancer

The receptor tyrosine kinase AXL promotes migration, invasion, and metastasis. Here, we evaluated the role of AXL in endometrial cancer. High immunohistochemical expression of AXL was found in 76% (63/83) of advanced-stage, and 77% (82/107) of high-grade specimens and correlated with worse survival in uterine serous cancer patients. In vitro, genetic silencing of AXL inhibited migration and invasion but had no effect on proliferation of ARK1 endometrial cancer cells. AXL-deficient cells showed significantly decreased expression of phospho-AKT as well as uPA, MMP-1, MMP-2, MMP-3, and MMP-9. In a xenograft model of human uterine serous carcinoma with AXL-deficient ARK1 cells, there was significantly less tumor burden than xenografts with control ARK1 cells. Together, these findings underscore the therapeutic potentials of AXL as a candidate target for treatment of metastatic endometrial cancer

A conserved filamentous assembly underlies the structure of the meiotic chromosome axis.

The meiotic chromosome axis plays key roles in meiotic chromosome organization and recombination, yet the underlying protein components of this structure are highly diverged. Here, we show that 'axis core proteins' from budding yeast (Red1), mammals (SYCP2/SYCP3), and plants (ASY3/ASY4) are evolutionarily related and play equivalent roles in chromosome axis assembly. We first identify 'closure motifs' in each complex that recruit meiotic HORMADs, the master regulators of meiotic recombination. We next find that axis core proteins form homotetrameric (Red1) or heterotetrameric (SYCP2:SYCP3 and ASY3:ASY4) coiled-coil assemblies that further oligomerize into micron-length filaments. Thus, the meiotic chromosome axis core in fungi, mammals, and plants shares a common molecular architecture, and likely also plays conserved roles in meiotic chromosome axis assembly and recombination control

Prediction of the Caspian Sea level using ECMWF seasonal forecasts and reanalysis

This article is made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits any use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author(s) and the source are credited.The hydrological budget of the Caspian Sea (CS) is investigated using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts interim reanalysis (ERAi) and seasonal forecast (FCST) data with the aim of predicting the Caspian Sea Level (CSL) some months ahead. Precipitation and evaporation are used. After precipitation events over the Volga River, the discharge (Volga River discharge (VRD)) follows with delays, which are parameterized. The components of the water budget from ERAi and FCSTs are integrated to obtain time series of the CSL. Observations of the CSL and the VRD are used for comparison and tuning. The quality of ERAi data is sufficiently good to calculate the time variability of the CSL with a satisfactory accuracy. Already the storage of water within the Volga Basin allows forecasts of the CSL a few months ahead, and using the FCSTs of precipitation improves the CSL forecasts. The evaporation in the seasonal forecasts is deficient due to unrealistic sea surface temperatures over the CS. Impacts of different water budget terms on the CSL variability are shown by a variety of validation tools. The importance of precipitation anomalies over the catchment of the Volga River is confirmed, but also impacts from the two southern rivers (Sefidrud and Kura River) and the evaporation over the CS become obvious for some periods. When pushing the FCSTs beyond the limits of the seasonal FCSTs to 1 year, considerable forecast skill can still be found. Validating only FCSTs by the present approach, which show the same trend as one based on a statistical method, significantly enhances the skill scores

Case study for the assessment of the biogeophysical effects of a potential afforestation in Europe

BACKGROUND: A regional-scale sensitivity study has been carried out to investigate the climatic effects of forest cover change in Europe. Applying REMO (regional climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology), the projected temperature and precipitation tendencies have been analysed for summer, based on the results of the A2 IPCC-SRES emission scenario simulation. For the end of the 21st century it has been studied, whether the assumed forest cover increase could reduce the effects of the greenhouse gas concentration change. RESULTS: Based on the simulation results, biogeophysical effects of the hypothetic potential afforestation may lead to cooler and moister conditions during summer in most parts of the temperate zone. The largest relative effects of forest cover increase can be expected in northern Germany, Poland and Ukraine, which is 15-20% of the climate change signal for temperature and more than 50% for precipitation. In northern Germany and France, potential afforestation may enhance the effects of emission change, resulting in more severe heavy precipitation events. The probability of dry days and warm temperature extremes would decrease. CONCLUSIONS: Large contiguous forest blocks can have distinctive biogeophysical effect on the climate on regional and local scale. In certain regions of the temperate zone, climate change signal due to greenhouse gas emission can be reduced by afforestation due to the dominant evaporative cooling effect during summer. Results of this case study with a hypothetical land cover change can contribute to the assessment of the role of forests in adapting to climate change. Thus they can build an important basis of the future forest policy

Characterisation of a Coriolis flow meter for fuel consumption measurements in realistic drive cycle tests

When testing light-duty and heavy-duty vehicles on chassis dynamometers, as in the WLTP, or engines on engine test benches, as in the WHDC, it is required to measure the fuel consumption. In the preferable case, the measurement of the fuel consumption is carried out with suitable flow meters. These require high measurement accuracy in a wide flow range, independent of the fuel type, as the flow rate range is often very large and depends on the power range of the vehicle engines. Moreover, the fuel flow rate in the test cycles is very dynamically related to the loads. In the scope of the ongoing EMPIR Joint Research Project 20IND13 SAFEST the dynamic flow behaviour as well as the measurement accuracy of flow meters for different types of fuels are investigated. This paper presents first results from the realisation of dynamic flow profiles, and flow measurements with a Coriolis Flow Meter with different representative fuels in a wide density and viscosity range and a wide flow rate range at different fuel temperatures

Improved seasonal prediction of European summer temperatures with new five-layer soil-hydrology scheme

We evaluate the impact of a new 5-layer soil-hydrology scheme on seasonal hindcast skill of 2-meter temperatures over Europe obtained with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). Assimilation experiments from 1981 to 2010 and 10-member seasonal hindcasts initialized on 1 May each year are performed with MPI-ESM in two soil configurations, one using a bucket scheme and one a new 5-layer soil-hydrology scheme. We find the seasonal hindcast skill for European summer temperatures to improve with the 5-layer scheme compared to the bucket scheme, and investigate possible causes for these improvements. First, improved indirect soil moisture assimilation allows for enhanced soil moisture-temperature feedbacks in the hindcasts. Additionally, this leads to improved prediction of anomalies in the 500 hPa geopotential height surface, reflecting more realistic atmospheric circulation patterns over Europe

Quantification of ovarian lesion and fallopian tube vasculature using optical-resolution photoacoustic microscopy

The heterogeneity in the pathological and clinical manifestations of ovarian cancer is a major hurdle impeding early and accurate diagnosis. A host of imaging modalities, including Doppler ultrasound, MRI, and CT, have been investigated to improve the assessment of ovarian lesions. We hypothesized that pathologic conditions might affect the ovarian vasculature and that these changes might be detectable by optical-resolution photoacoustic microscopy (OR-PAM). In our previous work, we developed a benchtop OR-PAM and demonstrated it on a limited set of ovarian and fallopian tube specimens. In this study, we collected data from over 50 patients, supporting a more robust statistical analysis. We then developed an efficient custom analysis pipeline for characterizing the vascular features of the samples, including the mean vessel diameter, vascular density, global vascular directionality, local vascular definition, and local vascular tortuosity/branchedness. Phantom studies using carbon fibers showed that our algorithm was accurate within an acceptable error range. Between normal ovaries and normal fallopian tubes, we observed significant differences in five of six extracted vascular features. Further, we showed that distinct subsets of vascular features could distinguish normal ovaries from cystic, fibrous, and malignant ovarian lesions. In addition, a statistically significant difference was found in the mean vascular tortuosity/branchedness values of normal and abnormal tubes. The findings support the proposition that OR-PAM can help distinguish the severity of tubal and ovarian pathologies

Solutions to Maxwell's Equations using Spheroidal Coordinates

Analytical solutions to the wave equation in spheroidal coordinates in the short wavelength limit are considered. The asymptotic solutions for the radial function are significantly simplified, allowing scalar spheroidal wave functions to be defined in a form which is directly reminiscent of the Laguerre-Gaussian solutions to the paraxial wave equation in optics. Expressions for the Cartesian derivatives of the scalar spheroidal wave functions are derived, leading to a new set of vector solutions to Maxwell's equations. The results are an ideal starting point for calculations of corrections to the paraxial approximation