Sentiment Analyse von informellen Kurztexten im Unternehmenskontext

In der Masterthesis „Sentiment Analyse von informellen Kurztexten im Unternehmenskontext“ werden Ansätze und Methoden aufgezeigt hat mit denen Unternehmen in der Lage sind die Daten aus sozialen Netzwerken zu speichern, zu verarbeiten und schließlich zu analysieren. Praktisch wurde dies anhand des Beispiels mit Amazons Kundendienst auf Twitter mit Hilfe einer Sentiment Analyse aufgezeigt. Die aus der Theorie und den praktischen Ergebnissen gewonnenen Erkenntnisse über Herausforderungen, Nutzen, sowie Methoden zur Umsetzung sind universell in vielen Unternehmen einsetzbar und können wie aufgezeigt unter anderem zu einer Verbesserung der Kundenzufriedenheit führen. Dabei wurde ein lexikonbasietre Ansatz zur Sentimentanalyse benutzt

Social Learnung in School - Development and Implementation

In der vorliegenden Arbeit wird untersucht, wie soziales Lernen in der Schule als ein extra Unterrichtsfach entwickelt werden kann und was bei der Implementierung zu beachten ist. Hierzu wurden zwei Studien durchgeführt. Studie 1 beschäftigt sich mit der Entwicklungsphase eines Konzeptes zum Sozialen Lernen als Unterrichtsfach und Studie 2 mit der Implementierung. Der Forschungsstand zeigt, dass es zwar Konzepte zum Erwerb von sozialen Kompetenzen gibt, die jedoch aus der Praxis heraus entstanden und häufig nicht theoretisch fundiert sind. Ziel der hier vorliegenden Arbeit ist es, auf Basis von theoretischen Grundlagen ein Konzept zur Sozialerziehung in der Schule zu entwickeln. Hierzu wurden die altersspezifischen Entwicklungsaufgaben im Jugendalter, die Theorie zum Selbstkonzept und die Rational-Emotive Verhaltenstherapie, als eine Selbsttechnologie, als Basis ausgewählt. Im Rahmen der Studie 1 fand eine zeit- und informationsintensive Felderkundung statt sowie die Entwicklung eines Konzeptes zum „Sozialen Lernen“ für eine 7. Klasse, dessen Effektivität durch Selbst- und Beobachtungsdaten erfasst wurde. Im Anschluss an die darauf folgende Darstellung der Ergebnisse werden die Erkenntnisse der Arbeit diskutiert und ein Ausblick auf die Studie 2 gegeben. In Studie 2 wird das Unterrichtskonzept in 4 Klassen getestet und der Zeitraum der Durchführung auf ein Schuljahr verlängert. In dieser Studie wurden quantitative Daten aus Selbst- und Fremdberichten erhoben und es werden die Ergebnisse vorgestellt und diskutiert. Die Ergebnisse aus Studie 1 und Studie 2 legen nahe, dass die Schüler/innen, die am Unterrichtsfach „Soziales Lernen“ teilgenommen haben, sich positiv hinsichtlich ihrer sozialen Kompetenzen entwickelt haben. Die Verlängerung des zeitlichen Rahmens von einem Halbjahr auf ein Schuljahr hatte positive Auswirkungen auf die Entwicklung der Schüler/innen. Ein wichtiger Aspekt in der Gesamtdiskussion der Ergebnisse sind die weiteren Einflussfaktoren auf die Entwicklung der Schüler/innen außerhalb des Unterrichts „Soziales Lernen“. Im Vorfeld der Studien wurde versucht, mögliche Einfluss- und Störfaktoren zu ermitteln. Wie sich in dem Verlauf der Studien gezeigt hat, konnten einige Faktoren erst während der Durchführung ermittelt werden. Auch wenn diese Faktoren ermittelt werden konnten, ist zum einen nicht abzuschätzen, wie groß der wirkliche Einfluss auf die Ergebnisse war und zum anderen ob es nicht noch weitere Faktoren gibt, die aber nicht wahrgenommen wurden.The present study examines how social learning in school can be developed as a specific teaching subject and which factors need to be considered when implementing such a program for social learning. In order to examine the issues mentioned, two studies have been conducted. Study 1 is engaged in the development of a concept for “social learning” as a subject whereas study 2 examines the implementation of the so called subject at schools. The state of research shows that concepts for the acquisition of social skills are available however, these concepts usually emerge from practice and are often not well-founded in theory. The aim of the present work is based on theoretical foundations to develop a concept for social education at school. The age-related development tasks in adolescence, theory of self-concept and the rational emotive behavior therapy as a matter of self-technology were selected as a basis for this concept. In study 1 (N=18), a time- and information-intensive field exploration was held as a basis for the development of a concept for "Social Learning" in a 7th grade class, whose effectiveness has been detected by self-observation data. Following the subsequent presentation of the results, the findings of the work are discussed and an outlook on study 2 is given. In Study 2 (N= 85), the teaching concept was tested in 4 classes and the duration of the implementation has been prolonged to one school year. In this study, the collected quantitative data from self and external reports are presented and results are discussed. The results of Study 1 and Study 2 suggest that the students who participated in the project "Social Learning", developed positively in terms of their social skills. The extension of the time frame from half a school year to one school year had a further positive impact on the development of the students. There are also further important aspects in the discussion of the results which influence the development of students apart from the project "Social Learning". Possible factors of the impact and interference could be identified before the start of studies. As it has been shown within the course of the studies, further factors of the impact could be determined during the execution of the studies (for example confounding factors like the school system or the class teacher). Although these factors could be identified, their actual influence on the results has not been assessed and furthermore, it remains unclear if there are other confounding factors of the impact that remain unperceived

Surface modification of decellularized bovine carotid arteries with human vascular cells significantly reduces their thrombogenicity

Background: Since autologous veins are unavailable when needed in more than 20% of cases in vascular surgery, the production of personalized biological vascular grafts for implantation has become crucial. Surface modification of decellularized xenogeneic grafts with vascular cells to achieve physiological luminal coverage and eventually thromboresistance is an important prerequisite for implantation. However, ex vivo thrombogenicity testing remains a neglected area in the field of tissue engineering of vascular grafts due to a multifold of reasons. Methods: After seeding decellularized bovine carotid arteries with human endothelial progenitor cells and umbilical cord-derived mesenchymal stem cells, luminal endothelial cell coverage (LECC) was correlated with glucose and lactate levels on the cell supernatant. Then a closed loop whole blood perfusion system was designed. Recellularized grafts with a LECC > 50% and decellularized vascular grafts were perfused with human whole blood for 2 h. Hemolysis and complete blood count evaluation was performed on an hourly basis, followed by histological and immunohistochemical analysis. Results: While whole blood perfusion of decellularized grafts significantly reduced platelet counts, platelet depletion from blood resulting from binding to re-endothelialized grafts was insignificant (p = 0.7284). Moreover, macroscopic evaluation revealed thrombus formation only in the lumen of unseeded grafts and histological characterization revealed lack of CD41 positive platelets in recellularized grafts, thus confirming their thromboresistance. Conclusion: In the present study we were able to demonstrate the effect of surface modification of vascular grafts in their thromboresistance in an ex vivo whole blood perfusion system. To our knowledge, this is the first study to expose engineered vascular grafts to human whole blood, recirculating at high flow rates, immediately after seeding

Engineering an endocrine Neo-Pancreas by repopulation of a decellularized rat pancreas with islets of Langerhans

Decellularization of pancreata and repopulation of these non-immunogenic matrices with islets and endothelial cells could provide transplantable, endocrine Neo- Pancreata. In this study, rat pancreata were perfusion decellularized and repopulated with intact islets, comparing three perfusion routes (Artery, Portal Vein, Pancreatic Duct). Decellularization effectively removed all cellular components but conserved the pancreas specific extracellular matrix. Digital subtraction angiography of the matrices showed a conserved integrity of the decellularized vascular system but a contrast emersion into the parenchyma via the decellularized pancreatic duct. Islets infused via the pancreatic duct leaked from the ductular system into the peri- ductular decellularized space despite their magnitude. TUNEL staining and Glucose stimulated insulin secretion revealed that islets were viable and functional after the process. We present the first available protocol for perfusion decellularization of rat pancreata via three different perfusion routes. Furthermore, we provide first proof-of-concept for the repopulation of the decellularized rat pancreata with functional islets of Langerhans. The presented technique can serve as a bioengineering platform to generate implantable and functional endocrine Neo-Pancreata

Cellular Location of HNF4α is Linked With Terminal Liver Failure in Humans

Hepatocyte nuclear factor 4 alpha (HNF4α) is a transcription factor that plays a critical role in hepatocyte function, and HNF4α-based reprogramming corrects terminal liver failure in rats with chronic liver disease. In the livers of patients with advanced cirrhosis, HNF4α RNA expression levels decrease as hepatic function deteriorates, and protein expression is found in the cytoplasm. These findings could explain impaired hepatic function in patients with degenerative liver disease. In this study, we analyzed HNF4α localization and the pathways involved in post-translational modification of HNF4α in human hepatocytes from patients with decompensated liver function. RNA-sequencing analysis revealed that AKT-related pathways, specifically phospho-AKT, is down-regulated in cirrhotic hepatocytes from patients with terminal failure, in whom nuclear levels of HNF4α were significantly reduced, and cytoplasmic expression of HNF4α was increased. cMET was also significantly reduced in failing hepatocytes. Moreover, metabolic profiling showed a glycolytic phenotype in failing human hepatocytes. The contribution of cMET and phospho-AKT to nuclear localization of HNF4α was confirmed using Spearman's rank correlation test and pathway analysis, and further correlated with hepatic dysfunction by principal component analysis. HNF4α acetylation, a posttranslational modification important for nuclear retention, was also significantly reduced in failing human hepatocytes when compared with normal controls. Conclusion: These results suggest that the alterations in the cMET-AKT pathway directly correlate with HNF4α localization and level of hepatocyte dysfunction. This study suggests that manipulation of HNF4α and pathways involved in HNF4α posttranslational modification may restore hepatocyte function in patients with terminal liver failure.Fil: Florentino, Rodrigo M.. Univeristy of Pittsburgh. School of Medicine; Estados Unidos. Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais; BrasilFil: Fraunhoffer Navarro, Nicolas Alejandro. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Houssay. Centro de Estudios Farmacológicos y Botánicos. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Medicina. Centro de Estudios Farmacológicos y Botánicos; ArgentinaFil: Morita, Kazutoyo. University of Pittsburgh at Johnstown; Estados UnidosFil: Takeishi, Kazuki. University of Pittsburgh at Johnstown; Estados UnidosFil: Ostrowska, Alina. University of Pittsburgh at Johnstown; Estados UnidosFil: Achreja, Abhinav. Michigan State University; Estados UnidosFil: Animasahun, Olamide. Michigan State University; Estados UnidosFil: Haep, Nils. University of Pittsburgh at Johnstown; Estados UnidosFil: Arazov, Shohrat. University of Pittsburgh at Johnstown; Estados UnidosFil: Agarwal, Nandini. University of Pittsburgh at Johnstown; Estados UnidosFil: Collin de lHortet, Alexandra. University of Pittsburgh at Johnstown; Estados UnidosFil: Guzman Lepe, Jorge. University of Pittsburgh at Johnstown; Estados UnidosFil: Tafaleng, Edgar N.. University of Pittsburgh at Johnstown; Estados UnidosFil: Mukherjee, Amitava. University of Pittsburgh at Johnstown; Estados UnidosFil: Troy, Kris. University of Pittsburgh at Johnstown; Estados UnidosFil: Banerjee, Swati. University of Pittsburgh at Johnstown; Estados UnidosFil: Paranjpe, Shirish. University of Pittsburgh at Johnstown; Estados UnidosFil: Michalopoulos, George K.. University of Pittsburgh at Johnstown; Estados UnidosFil: Bell, Aaron. University of Pittsburgh at Johnstown; Estados UnidosFil: Nagrath, Deepak. Michigan State University; Estados UnidosFil: Hainer, Sarah J.. University of Pittsburgh at Johnstown; Estados UnidosFil: Fox, Ira J.. University of Pittsburgh at Johnstown; Estados UnidosFil: Soto Gutierrez, Alejandro. University of Pittsburgh at Johnstown; Estados Unido

Assembly and Function of a Bioengineered Human Liver for Transplantation Generated Solely from Induced Pluripotent Stem Cells

The availability of an autologous transplantable auxiliary liver would dramatically affect the treatment of liver disease. Assembly and function in vivo of a bioengineered human liver derived from induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs) has not been previously described. By improving methods for liver decellularization, recellularization, and differentiation of different liver cellular lineages of human iPSCs in an organ-like environment, we generated functional engineered human mini livers and performed transplantation in a rat model. Whereas previous studies recellularized liver scaffolds largely with rodent hepatocytes, we repopulated not only the parenchyma with human iPSC-hepatocytes but also the vascular system with human iPS-endothelial cells, and the bile duct network with human iPSC-biliary epithelial cells. The regenerated human iPSC-derived mini liver containing multiple cell types was tested in vivo and remained functional for 4 days after auxiliary liver transplantation in immunocompromised, engineered (IL2rg−/−) rats.Fil: Takeishi, Kazuki. University of Pittsburgh; Estados UnidosFil: Collin de I'Hortet, Alexandra. University of Pittsburgh; Estados UnidosFil: Wang, Yang. University of Pittsburgh; Estados UnidosFil: Handa, Kan. University of Pittsburgh; Estados UnidosFil: Guzman Lepe, Jorge. University of Pittsburgh; Estados UnidosFil: Matsubara, Kentaro. University of Pittsburgh; Estados UnidosFil: Morita, Kazutoyo. University of Pittsburgh; Estados UnidosFil: Jang, Sae. University of Pittsburgh; Estados UnidosFil: Haep, Nils. University of Pittsburgh; Estados UnidosFil: Florentino, Rodrigo M.. University of Pittsburgh; Estados UnidosFil: Yuan, Fangchao. University of Pittsburgh; Estados UnidosFil: Fukumitsu, Ken. University of Pittsburgh; Estados UnidosFil: Tobita, Kimimasa. University of Pittsburgh; Estados UnidosFil: Sun, Wendell. University of Pittsburgh; Estados UnidosFil: Franks, Jonathan. University of Pittsburgh; Estados UnidosFil: Delgado, Evan R.. University of Pittsburgh; Estados UnidosFil: Shapiro, Erik M.. University of Pittsburgh; Estados UnidosFil: Fraunhoffer Navarro, Nicolas Alejandro. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Houssay. Centro de Estudios Farmacológicos y Botánicos. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Medicina. Centro de Estudios Farmacológicos y Botánicos; ArgentinaFil: Duncan, Andrew W.. University of Pittsburgh; Estados UnidosFil: Yagi, Hiroshi. University of Pittsburgh; Estados UnidosFil: Mashimo, Tomoji. University of Pittsburgh; Estados UnidosFil: Fox, Ira J.. University of Pittsburgh; Estados UnidosFil: Soto Gutierrez, Alejandro. University of Pittsburgh; Estados Unido

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundDisorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.MethodsWe estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.FindingsGlobally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378–521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20–3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5–45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7–26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6–38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5–32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7–2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.InterpretationAs the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021. Methods We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined. Findings Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378–521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20–3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5–45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7–26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6–38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5–32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7–2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer. Interpretation As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44–2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64–3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7–17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8–6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7–10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0–234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7–198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3–214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0–171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3–51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9–52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54–1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5–9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0–19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9–21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0–17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7–27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6–63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4–64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6–2·9) between 2019 and 2021. Interpretation Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background Accurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios. Methods To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10–54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values—a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy—by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007–21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline. Findings During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63–5·06) to 2·23 (2·09–2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137–147), declining to 129 million (121–138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1—canonically considered replacement-level fertility—in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7–29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59–2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25–1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6–43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1–59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions—decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7–25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3–19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4–10·1) in 2100—but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40–1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35–1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction. Interpretation Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world