Precision Photometry for Q0957+561 Images A and B

Since the persuasive determination of the time-delay in Q0957+561, much interest has centered around shifting and subtracting the A and B light-curves to look for residuals due to microlensing. Solar mass objects in the lens galaxy produce variations on timescales of decades, with amplitudes of a few tenths of a magnitude, but MACHO's (with masses of order $10^{-3}$ to $10^{-7}M_\odot$) produce variations at only the 5% level. To detect such small variations, highly precise photometry is required. To that end, we have used 200 observations over three nights to examine the effects of seeing on the light-curves. We have determined that seeing itself can be responsible for correlated 5% variations in the light-curves of A and B. We have found, however, that these effects can be accurately removed, by subtracting the light from the lens galaxy, and by correcting for cross contamination of light between the closely juxtaposed A and B images. We find that these corrections improve the variations due to seeing from 5% to a level only marginally detectable over photon shot noise (0.5%).Comment: 21 Pages with 9 PostScript figures, AASTeX 4 (preprint style

Assessing 20th century climate-vegetation feedbacks of land-use change and natural vegetation dynamics in a fully coupled vegetation-climate model

This study describes the coupling of the dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM), Lund–Potsdam–Jena Model for managed land (LPJmL), with the general circulation model (GCM), Simplified Parameterizations primitivE Equation DYnamics model (SPEEDY), to study the feedbacks between land-use change and natural vegetation dynamics and climate during the 20th century. We show that anthropogenic land-use change had a stronger effect on climate than the natural vegetation's response to climate change (e.g. boreal greening). Changes in surface albedo are an important driver of the climate's response; but, especially in the (sub)tropics, changes in evapotranspiration and the corresponding changes in latent heat flux and cloud formation can be of equal importance in the opposite direction. Our study emphasizes that implementing dynamic vegetation into climate models is essential, especially at regional scales: the dynamic response of natural vegetation significantly alters the climate change that is driven by increased atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and anthropogenic land-use chang

Radio Wavelength Constraints on the Sources of the Far Infrared Background

The cosmic far infrared background detected recently by the COBE-DIRBE team is presumably due, in large part, to the far infrared (FIR) emission from all galaxies. We take the well-established correlation between FIR and radio luminosity for individual galaxies and apply it to the FIR background. We find that these sources make up about half of the extragalactic radio background, the other half being due to AGN. This is in agreement with other radio observations, which leads us to conclude that the FIR-radio correlation holds well for the very faint sources making up the FIR background, and that the FIR background is indeed due to star-formation activity (not AGN or other possible sources). If these star-forming galaxies have a radio spectral index between 0.4 and 0.8, and make up 40 to 60% of the extragalactic radio background, we find that they have redshifts between roughly 1 and 2, in agreement with recent estimates by Madau et al. of the redshift of peak star-formation activity. We compare the observed extragalactic radio background to the integral over the logN-logS curve for star-forming radio sources, and find that the slope of the curve must change significantly below about 1 microjansky. At 1 microjansky, the faint radio source counts predict about 25 sources per square arcminute, and these will cause SIRTF to be confusion limited at 160micron.Comment: 10 pages including 1 figure, AASTeX, accepted by Ap

Faint Radio Sources and Star Formation History

Faint extragalactic radio sources provide important information about the global history of star formation. Sensitive radio observations of the Hubble Deep Field and other fields have found that sub-mJy radio sources are predominantly associated with star formation activity rather than AGN. Radio observations of star forming galaxies have the advantage of being independent of extinction by dust. We use the FIR-radio correlation to compare the radio and FIR backgrounds, and make several conclusions about the star forming galaxies producing the FIR background. We then use the redshift distribution of faint radio sources to determine the evolution of the radio luminosity function, and thus estimate the star formation density as a function of redshift.Comment: 12 pages, 9 figures, latex using texas.sty, to appear in the CD-ROM Proceedings of the 19th Texas Symposium on Relativistic Astrophysics and Cosmology, held in Paris, France, Dec. 14-18, 1998. Eds.: J. Paul, T. Montmerle, and E. Aubourg (CEA Saclay). No changes to paper, just updated publication info in this commen

An ensemble study of extreme storm surge related water levels in the North Sea in a changing climate

The height of storm surges is extremely important for a low-lying country like The Netherlands. By law, part of the coastal defence system has to withstand a water level that on average occurs only once every 10 000 years. The question then arises whether and how climate change affects the heights of extreme storm surges. Published research points to only small changes. However, due to the limited amount of data available results are usually limited to relatively frequent extremes like the annual 99%-ile. We here report on results from a 17-member ensemble of North Sea water levels spaning the period 1950–2100. It was created by forcing a surge model of the North Sea with meteorological output from a state-of-the-art global climate model which has been driven by greenhouse gas emissions following the SRES A1b scenario. The large ensemble size enables us to calculate 10 000 year return water levels with a low statistical uncertainty. In the one model used in this study, we find no statistically significant change in the 10 000 year return values of surge heights along the Dutch during the 21st century. Also a higher sea level resulting from global warming does not impact the height of the storm surges. As a side effect of our simulations we also obtain results on the interplay between surge and tide

Dominant Modes of Variability in the South Atlantic: A Study with a Hierarchy of Ocean-Atmosphere Models.

Abstract Using an atmosphere model of intermediate complexity and a hierarchy of ocean models, the dominant modes of interannual and decadal variability in the South Atlantic Ocean are studied. The atmosphere Simplified Parameterizations Primitive Equation Dynamics (SPEEDY) model has T30L7 resolution. The physical package consists of a set of simplified physical parameterization schemes, based on the same principles adopted in the schemes of state-of-the-art AGCMs. It is at least an order of magnitude faster, whereas the quality of the simulated climate compares well with those models. The hierarchy of ocean models consists of simple mixed layer models with an increasing number of physical processes involved such as Ekman transport, wind-induced mixing, and wind-driven barotropic transport. Finally, the atmosphere model is coupled to a regional version of the Miami Isopycnal Coordinate Ocean Model (MICOM) covering the South Atlantic with a horizontal resolution of 1° and 16 vertical layers. The coupled modes of mean sea level pressure and sea surface temperature simulated by SPEEDY–MICOM strongly resemble the modes as analyzed from the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis, indicating that this model configuration possesses the required physical mechanisms for generating these modes of variability. Using the ocean model hierarchy the authors were able to show that turbulent heat fluxes, Ekman transport, and wind-induced mixing contribute to the generation of the dominant modes of coupled SST variability. The different roles of these terms in generating these modes are analyzed. Variations in the wind-driven barotropic transport mainly seem to affect the SST variability in the Brazil–Malvinas confluence zone. The spectra of the mixed layer models appeared to be too red in comparison with the fully coupled SPEEDY–MICOM model due to the too strong coupling between SST and surface air temperatures (SATs), resulting from the inability to advect and subduct SST anomalies by the mixed layer models. In SPEEDY–MICOM anomalies in the southeastern corner of the South Atlantic are subducted and advected toward the north Brazilian coast on a time scale of about 6 yr

The Central Component of Gravitational Lens Q0957+561

In 1981, a faint radio source (G') was detected near the center of the lensing galaxy of the famous "twin quasar" Q0957+561. It is still unknown whether this central radio source is a third quasar image or an active nucleus of the lensing galaxy, or a combination of both. In an attempt to resolve this ambiguity, we observed Q0957+561 at radio wavelengths of 13cm, 18cm, and 21cm, using the Very Long Baseline Array in combination with the phased Very Large Array and the Green Bank Telescope. We measured the spectrum of G' for the first time and found it to be significantly different from the spectra of the two bright quasar images. This finding suggests that the central component is primarily or entirely emission from the foreground lens galaxy, but the spectrum is also consistent with the hypothesis of a central quasar image suffering free-free absorption. In addition, we confirm the previously-reported VLBI position of G' just north of the optical center of the lens galaxy. The position slightly favors the hypothesis that G' originates in the lens, but is not conclusive. We discuss the prospects for further clarification of this issue.Comment: 18 pages, accepted for publication in A