Different Imaging Strategies in Patients With Possible Basilar Artery Occlusion Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

Background and Purpose-This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of different noninvasive imaging strategies in patients with possible basilar artery occlusion. Methods-A Markov decision analytic model was used to evaluate long-term outcomes resulting from strategies using computed tomographic angiography (CTA), magnetic resonance imaging, nonenhanced CT, or duplex ultrasound with intravenous (IV) thrombolysis being administered after positive findings. The analysis was performed from the societal perspective based on US recommendations. Input parameters were derived from the literature. Costs were obtained from United States costing sources and published literature. Outcomes were lifetime costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, an

Validation of a model to investigate the effects of modifying cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors on the burden of CVD: the rotterdam ischemic heart disease and stroke computer simulation (RISC) model.

BACKGROUND: We developed a Monte Carlo Markov model designed to investigate the effects of modifying cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors on the burden of CVD. Internal, predictive, and external validity of the model have not yet been established. METHODS: The Rotterdam Ischemic Heart Disease and Stroke Computer Simulation (RISC) model was developed using data covering 5 years of follow-up from the Rotterdam Study. To prove 1) internal and 2) predictive validity, the incidences of coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, CVD death, and non-CVD death simulated by the model over a 13-year period were compared with those recorded for 3,478 participants in the Rotterdam Study with at least 13 years of follow-up. 3) External validity was verified using 10 years of follow-up data from the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer (EPIC)-Norfolk study of 25,492 participants, for whom CVD and non-CVD mortality was compared. RESULTS: At year 5, the observed incidences (with simulated incidences in brackets) of CHD, stroke, and CVD and non-CVD mortality for the 3,478 Rotterdam Study participants were 5.30% (4.68%), 3.60% (3.23%), 4.70% (4.80%), and 7.50% (7.96%), respectively. At year 13, these percentages were 10.60% (10.91%), 9.90% (9.13%), 14.20% (15.12%), and 24.30% (23.42%). After recalibrating the model for the EPIC-Norfolk population, the 10-year observed (simulated) incidences of CVD and non-CVD mortality were 3.70% (4.95%) and 6.50% (6.29%). All observed incidences fell well within the 95% credibility intervals of the simulated incidences. CONCLUSIONS: We have confirmed the internal, predictive, and external validity of the RISC model. These findings provide a basis for analyzing the effects of modifying cardiovascular disease risk factors on the burden of CVD with the RISC model.RIGHTS : This article is licensed under the BioMed Central licence at http://www.biomedcentral.com/about/license which is similar to the 'Creative Commons Attribution Licence'. In brief you may : copy, distribute, and display the work; make derivative works; or make commercial use of the work - under the following conditions: the original author must be given credit; for any reuse or distribution, it must be made clear to others what the license terms of this work are

Statistical methods to correct for verification bias in diagnostic studies are inadequate when there are few false negatives: a simulation study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>A common feature of diagnostic research is that results for a diagnostic gold standard are available primarily for patients who are positive for the test under investigation. Data from such studies are subject to what has been termed "verification bias". We evaluated statistical methods for verification bias correction when there are few false negatives.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A simulation study was conducted of a screening study subject to verification bias. We compared estimates of the area-under-the-curve (AUC) corrected for verification bias varying both the rate and mechanism of verification.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In a single simulated data set, varying false negatives from 0 to 4 led to verification bias corrected AUCs ranging from 0.550 to 0.852. Excess variation associated with low numbers of false negatives was confirmed in simulation studies and by analyses of published studies that incorporated verification bias correction. The 2.5^th– 97.5^thcentile range constituted as much as 60% of the possible range of AUCs for some simulations.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Screening programs are designed such that there are few false negatives. Standard statistical methods for verification bias correction are inadequate in this circumstance.</p

Cost-Effectiveness of New Cardiac and Vascular Rehabilitation Strategies for Patients with Coronary Artery Disease

Objective: Peripheral arterial disease (PAD) often hinders the cardiac rehabilitation program. The aim of this study was evaluating the relative cost-effectiveness of new rehabilitation strategies which include the diagnosis and treatment of PAD in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) undergoing cardiac rehabilitation. Data Sources: Best-available evidence was retrieved from literature and combined with primary data from 231 patients. Methods: We developed a Markov decision model to compare the following treatment strategies: 1. cardiac rehabilitation only; 2. ankle-brachial index (ABI) if cardiac rehabilitation fails followed by diagnostic work-up and revascularization for PAD if needed; 3. ABI prior to cardiac rehabilitation followed by diagnostic work-up and revascularization for PAD if needed. Quality-adjusted-life years (QALYs), life-time costs (US $), incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER), and gain in net health benefits (NHB) in QALY equivalents were calculated. A threshold willingness-to-pay of$75 000 was used. Results: ABI if cardiac rehabilitation fails was the most favorable strategy with an ICER of $44 251 per QALY gained and an incremental NHB compared to cardiac rehabilitation only of 0.03 QALYs (95$75 000/QALY. After sensitivity analysis, a combined cardiac and vascular rehabilitation program increased the success rate and would dominate the other two strategies with total lifetime costs of $30 246 a quality-adjusted life expectancy of 3.84 years, and an incremental NHB of 0.06 QALYs (95%CI:−0.24, 0.46) compared to current practice. The results were robust for other different input parameters. Conclusion: ABI measurement if cardiac rehabilitation fails followed by a diagnostic work-up and revascularization for PAD if needed are potentially cost-effective compared to cardiac rehabilitation only

Exploring the equity of GP practice prescribing rates for selected coronary heart disease drugs: a multiple regression analysis with proxies of healthcare need

Background There is a small, but growing body of literature highlighting inequities in GP practice prescribing rates for many drug therapies. The aim of this paper is to further explore the equity of prescribing for five major CHD drug groups and to explain the amount of variation in GP practice prescribing rates that can be explained by a range of healthcare needs indicators (HCNIs). Methods The study involved a cross-sectional secondary analysis in four primary care trusts (PCTs 1–4) in the North West of England, including 132 GP practices. Prescribing rates (average daily quantities per registered patient aged over 35 years) and HCNIs were developed for all GP practices. Analysis was undertaken using multiple linear regression. Results Between 22–25% of the variation in prescribing rates for statins, beta-blockers and bendrofluazide was explained in the multiple regression models. Slightly more variation was explained for ACE inhibitors (31.6%) and considerably more for aspirin (51.2%). Prescribing rates were positively associated with CHD hospital diagnoses and procedures for all drug groups other than ACE inhibitors. The proportion of patients aged 55–74 years was positively related to all prescribing rates other than aspirin, where they were positively related to the proportion of patients aged >75 years. However, prescribing rates for statins and ACE inhibitors were negatively associated with the proportion of patients aged >75 years in addition to the proportion of patients from minority ethnic groups. Prescribing rates for aspirin, bendrofluazide and all CHD drugs combined were negatively associated with deprivation. Conclusion Although around 25–50% of the variation in prescribing rates was explained by HCNIs, this varied markedly between PCTs and drug groups. Prescribing rates were generally characterised by both positive and negative associations with HCNIs, suggesting possible inequities in prescribing rates on the basis of ethnicity, deprivation and the proportion of patients aged over 75 years (for statins and ACE inhibitors, but not for aspirin)

How does gender influence the recognition of cardiovascular risk and adherence to self-care recommendations? : a study in polish primary care

Background: Studies have shown a correlation between gender and an ability to change lifestyle to reduce the risk of disease. However, the results of these studies are ambiguous, especially where a healthy lifestyle is concerned. Additionally, health behaviors are strongly modified by culture and the environment. Psychological factors also substantially affect engagement with disease-related lifestyle interventions. This study aimed to examine whether there are differences between men and women in the frequency of health care behavior for the purpose of reducing cardiovascular risk (CVR), as well as cognitive appraisal of this type of risk. We also aimed to identify the psychological predictors of engaging in recommended behavior for reducing the risk of cardiovascular disease after providing information about this risk in men and women. Methods: A total of 134 consecutive eligible patients in a family practice entered a longitudinal study. At initial consultation, the individual’s CVR and associated health burden was examined, and preventive measures were recommended by the physician. Self-care behavior, cognitive appraisal of risk, and coping styles were then assessed using psychological questionnaires. Six months after the initial data collection, the frequency of subjects’ self-care behavior was examined. Results: We found an increase in health care behavior after providing information regarding the rate of CVR in both sexes; this increase was greater for women than for men. Women followed self-care guidelines more often than men, particularly for preventive measures and dietary advice. Women were more inclined to recognize their CVR as a challenge. Coping style, cognitive appraisal, age, level of health behaviors at baseline and CVR values accounted for 48% of the variance in adherence to self-care guidelines in women and it was 52% in men. In women, total risk of CVD values were most important, while in men, cognitive appraisal of harm/loss was most important. Conclusions: Different predictors of acquisition of health behavior are encountered in men and women. Our results suggest that gender-adjusted motivation models influencing the recognition process need to be considered to optimize compliance in patients with CVR

Optimal cut-off criteria for duplex ultrasound for the diagnosis of restenosis in stented carotid arteries: Review and protocol for a diagnostic study

Background: Carotid angioplasty with stenting is a relatively new, increasingly used, less-invasive treatment for the treatment of symptomatic carotid artery stenosis. It is being evaluated in ongoing and nearly finished randomized trials. An important factor in the evaluation of stents is the occurrence of in-stent restenosis. An un-stented carotid artery is likely to have a more elastic vessel wall than a stented one, even if stenosis is present. Therefore, duplex ultrasound cut-off criteria for the degrees of an in-stent stenosis, based on blood velocity parameters, are probably different from the established cut-offs used for un-stented arteries. Routine criteria can not be applied to stented arteries but new criteria need to be established for this particular purpose. Methods/Design: Current literature was systematically reviewed. From the selected studies, the following data were extracted: publication year, population size, whether the study was prospective, which reference test was used, and if there was an indication for selection bias and for verification bias in particular. Previous studies often were retrospective, or the reference test (DSA or CTA) was carried out only when a patient was suspected of having restenosis at DUS, which may result in verification bias. Results: In general, the cut-off values are higher than those reported for unstented arteries. Previous studies often were retrospective, or the reference test (DSA or CTA) was carried out only when a patient was suspected of having restenosis at DUS, which may result in verification bias. Discussion: To address the deficiencies of the existing studies, we propose a prospective cohort study nested within the International Carotid Stenting Study (ICSS), an international multi-centre trial in which over 1,700 patients have been randomised between stenting and CEA. In this cohort we will enrol a minimum of 300 patients treated with a stent. All patients undergo regular DUS examination at the yearly follow-up visit according to the ICSS protocol. To avoid verification bias, an additional computed tomography angiography (CTA) will be performed as a reference test in all consecutive patients, regardless of the degree of stenosis on the initial DUS test

Propensity scores in the presence of effect modification: A case study using the comparison of mortality on hemodialysis versus peritoneal dialysis

Purpose. To control for confounding bias from non-random treatment assignment in observational data, both traditional multivariable models and more recently propensity score approaches have been applied. Our aim was to compare a propensity score-stratified model with a traditional multivariable-adjusted model, specifically in estimating survival of hemodialysis (HD) versus peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients. Methods. Using the Dutch End-Stage Renal Disease Registry, we constructed a propensity score, predicting PD assignment from age, gender, primary renal disease, center of dialysis, and year of first renal replacement therapy. We developed two Cox proportional hazards regression models to estimate survival on PD relative to HD, a propensity score-stratified model stratifying on the propensity score and a multivariable-adjusted model, and tested several interaction terms in both models. Results. The propensity score performed well: it showed a reasonable fit, had a good c-statistic, calibrated well and balanced the covariates. The main-effects multivariable-adjusted model and the propensity score-stratified univariable Cox model resulted in similar relative mortality risk estimates of PD compared with HD (0.99 and 0.97, respectively) with fewer significant covariates in the propensity model. After introducing the missing interaction variables for effect modification in both models, the mortality risk estimates for both main effects and interactions remained comparable, but the propensity score model had nearly as many covariates because of the additional interaction variables. Conclusion. Although the propensity score performed well, it did not alter the treatment effect in the outcome model and lost its advantage of parsimony in the presence of effect modification

Continued improvement of cardiovascular mortality in Hungary - impact of increased cardio-metabolic prescriptions

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>During the last 35 years the poor ranking of Hungary on the list of life expectancy at birth among European countries, has not changed. In 1970 our lag behind the leading European countries was the smallest. The gap was growing between 1970 and 1993 but from 1994 onwards the life expectancy at birth in Hungary has increased continuously and somewhat faster than in other European countries. The aim of this study was to analyze the association between decreasing cardiovascular mortality rates, as a main cause of death and the increase in cardio-metabolic prescriptions and possible changes in lifestyle behavior.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Analyses were conducted on national data concerning cardiovascular mortality and the number of cardio-metabolic drug prescription per capita. The association between yearly rates of cardiovascular events and changes in antihypertensive, antilipidemic and antidiabetic prescription rates was analyzed. The changes in other cardiovascular risk factors, like lifestyle were also considered.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We observed a remarkable decline of mortality due to stroke and acute myocardial infarction (AMI). The fall was significantly associated with all prescription rates. The proportion of each treatment type responsible for suppression of specific mortality rates is different. All treatment types comparably improved stroke mortality, while antilipidemic therapy improved AMI outcome.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>These results emphasize the importance of a comprehensive strategy that maximizes the population coverage of effective treatments. Hungary appears to be at the beginning of the fourth stage of epidemiologic transition, i.e. it has entered the stage of delayed chronic noninfectious diseases.</p

Decreasing trends in cardiovascular mortality in Turkey between 1988 and 2008.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality increased in developed countries until the 1970s then started to decline. Turkey is about to complete its demographic transition, which may also influence mortality trends. This study evaluated trends in coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke mortality between 1988 and 2008. METHODS: The number of deaths by cause (ICD-8), age and sex were obtained from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) annually between 1988 and 2008. Population statistics were based on census data (1990 and 2000) and Turkstat projections. European population standardised mortality rates for CHD and stroke were calculated for men and women over 35 years old. Joinpoint Regression was used to identify the points at which a statistically significant (p < 0.05) change of the trend occurred. RESULTS: The CHD mortality rate increased by 2.9% in men and 2.0% in women annually from 1988 to 1994, then started to decline. The annual rate of decline for men was 1.7% between 1994-2008, whilst in women it was 2.8% between 1994-2000 and 6.7% between 2005-2008 (p < 0.05 for all periods).Stroke mortality declined between 1990-1994 (annual fall of 3.8% in both sexes), followed by a slight increase between 1994-2004 (0.6% in men, 1.1% in women), then a further decline until 2008 (annual reduction of 4.4% in men, 7.9% in women) (p < 0.05 for all periods). CONCLUSIONS: A decrease in CVD mortality was observed from 1995 onwards in Turkey. The causes need to be explored in detail to inform future policy priorities in noncommunicable disease control