Estimating how inflated or obscured effects of climate affect forecasted species distribution

Climate is one of the main drivers of species distribution. However, as different environmental factors tend to co-vary, the effect of climate cannot be taken at face value, as it may be either inflated or obscured by other correlated factors. We used the favourability models of four species (Alytes dickhilleni, Vipera latasti, Aquila fasciata and Capra pyrenaica) inhabiting Spanish mountains as case studies to evaluate the relative contribution of climate in their forecasted favourability by using variation partitioning and weighting the effect of climate in relation to non-climatic factors. By calculating the pure effect of the climatic factor, the pure effects of non-climatic factors, the shared climatic effect and the proportion of the pure effect of the climatic factor in relation to its apparent effect (r), we assessed the apparent effect and the pure independent effect of climate. We then projected both types of effects when modelling the future favourability for each species and combination of AOGCM-SRES (two Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models: CGCM2 and ECHAM4, and two Special Reports on Emission Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B2). The results show that the apparent effect of climate can be either inflated (overrated) or obscured (underrated) by other correlated factors. These differences were species-specific; the sum of favourable areas forecasted according to the pure climatic effect differed from that forecasted according to the apparent climatic effect by about 61% on average for one of the species analyzed, and by about 20% on average for each of the other species. The pure effect of future climate on species distributions can only be estimated by combining climate with other factors. Transferring the pure climatic effect and the apparent climatic effect to the future delimits the maximum and minimum favourable areas forecasted for each species in each climate change scenario.Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación and FEDER (project CGL2009-11316/BOS). D. Romero is a PhD student at the University of Malaga with a grant of the Ministerio de Educacio´n y Ciencia (AP 2007-03633

The mechanisms of phenology: the patterns and processes of phenological shifts

Species across a wide range of taxa and habitats are shifting phenological events in response to climate change. While advances are common, shifts vary in magnitude and direction within and among species, and the basis for this variation is relatively unknown. We examine previously suggested patterns of variation in phenological shifts in order to understand the cue–response mechanisms that underlie phenological change. Here, we review what is known about the mechanistic basis for nine factors proposed to predict phenological change (latitude, elevation, habitat type, trophic level, migratory strategy, ecological specialization, species’ seasonality, thermoregulatory mode, and generation time). We find that many studies either do not identify a specific underlying mechanism or do not evaluate alternative mechanistic hypotheses, limiting the ability of scientists to predict future responses to global change with accuracy. We present a conceptual framework that emphasizes a critical distinction between environmental (cue-driven) and organismal (response-driven) mechanisms causing variation in phenological shifts and discuss how this distinction can reduce confusion in the field and improve predictions of future phenological change

Spring warming increases the abundance of an invasive specialist insect: links to phenology and life history

Abstract Under global warming, shifts in phenological synchrony between insects and host plants (i.e., changes in the relative timing of the interaction) may reduce resource availability to specialist insects. Some specialists, however, can flexibly track the shifts in host-plant phenology, allowing them to obtain sufficient resources and therefore to benefit from rising temperatures. Here, we investigated the effects of experimental warming on the life history of an invasive, specialist lace bug (Corythucha ciliata) and on the leaf expansion of its host plant (Platanus × acerifolia) in two spring seasons under field conditions in Shanghai, China. We found that a 2 °C increase in mean air temperature advanced the timing of the expansion of host leaves and of the activities of overwintering adult insects in both years but did not disrupt their synchrony. Warming also directly increased the reproduction of overwintering adults and enhanced the development and survival of their offspring. These results indicate that C. ciliata can well track the earlier emergence of available resources in response to springtime warming. Such plasticity, combined with the direct effects of rising temperatures, may increase the insect’s population size and outbreak potential in eastern China under climate warming