The wavelet-NARMAX representation : a hybrid model structure combining polynomial models with multiresolution wavelet decompositions

A new hybrid model structure combing polynomial models with multiresolution wavelet decompositions is introduced for nonlinear system identification. Polynomial models play an important role in approximation theory, and have been extensively used in linear and nonlinear system identification. Wavelet decompositions, in which the basis functions have the property of localization in both time and frequency, outperform many other approximation schemes and offer a flexible solution for approximating arbitrary functions. Although wavelet representations can approximate even severe nonlinearities in a given signal very well, the advantage of these representations can be lost when wavelets are used to capture linear or low-order nonlinear behaviour in a signal. In order to sufficiently utilise the global property of polynomials and the local property of wavelet representations simultaneously, in this study polynomial models and wavelet decompositions are combined together in a parallel structure to represent nonlinear input-output systems. As a special form of the NARMAX model, this hybrid model structure will be referred to as the WAvelet-NARMAX model, or simply WANARMAX. Generally, such a WANARMAX representation for an input-output system might involve a large number of basis functions and therefore a great number of model terms. Experience reveals that only a small number of these model terms are significant to the system output. A new fast orthogonal least squares algorithm, called the matching pursuit orthogonal least squares (MPOLS) algorithm, is also introduced in this study to determine which terms should be included in the final model

Low-dose computed tomography for lung cancer screening in high risk populations: a systematic review and economic evaluation

This is the final version. Available from NIHR Journals Library via the DOI in this record.The dataset associated with this article is located in ORE at: https://doi.org/10.24378/exe.564Background Diagnosis of lung cancer frequently occurs in its later stages. Low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) could detect lung cancer early. Objectives To estimate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of LDCT lung cancer screening in high risk populations. Methods Clinical effectiveness A systematic review of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing LDCT screening programmes with usual care (no screening) or other imaging screening programme (such as chest X-ray (CXR)) was conducted. Bibliographic sources included MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science and the Cochrane Library. Meta-analyses, including network meta-analyses, were performed. Cost-effectiveness An independent economic model employing discrete event simulation and using a natural history model calibrated to results from a large RCT was developed. There were twelve different population eligibility criteria and four intervention frequencies (single screen, triple screen, annual screening and biennial screening) and a no screening control arm. Results Clinical effectiveness Twelve RCTs were included, four of which currently contribute evidence on mortality. Meta-analysis of these demonstrated that LDCT with up to 9.80 years of follow-up was associated with a non-statistically significant decrease in lung cancer mortality (pooled RR 0.94, 95% CI 0.74 to 1.19). The findings also showed that LDCT screening demonstrated a non-statistically significant increasein all-cause mortality. Given the considerable heterogeneity detected between studies for both outcomes, the results should be treated with caution. Network meta-analysis including six RCTs was performed to assess the relative effectiveness of LDCT, CXR and usual care. The results showed that LDCT was ranked as the best screening strategy in terms of lung cancer mortality reduction. CXR had a 99.7% probability of being the worst intervention with usual care intermediate. Cost-effectiveness Screening programmes are predicted to be more effective than no screening, reduce lung cancer mortality and result in more lung cancer diagnoses. Screening programmes also increase costs. Screening for lung cancer is unlikely to be cost-effective at a threshold of £20,000/QALY, but may be cost-effective at a threshold of £30,000/QALY. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for a single screen in smokers aged 60–75 years with at least a 3% risk of lung cancer is £28,169 per QALY. Sensitivity and scenario analyses were conducted. Screening was only cost-effective at a threshold of £20,000/QALY in a minority of analyses. Limitations Clinical effectiveness The largest of the included RCTs compared LDCT with CXR screening rather than no screening. Cost-effectiveness A representative cost to the NHS of lung cancer has not been recently estimated according to key variables such as stage at diagnosis. Certain costs associated with running a screening programme have not been included. Conclusions LDCT screening may be clinically effective in reducing lung cancer mortality but there is considerable uncertainty. There is evidence that a single round of screening could be considered cost-effective at conventional thresholds, but there is significant uncertainty about the effect on costs and the magnitude of benefits. Future work Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness estimates should be updated with the anticipated results from several ongoing RCTs (particularly NELSON).This report was commissioned by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment Programme as project number 14/151/0

Winter wheat roots grow twice as deep as spring wheat roots, is this important for N uptake and N leaching losses?

Cropping systems comprising winter catch crops followed by spring wheat could reduce N leaching risks compared to traditional winter wheat systems in humid climates. We studied the soil mineral N (Ninorg) and root growth of winter- and spring wheat to 2.5 m depth during three years. Root depth of winter wheat (2.2 m) was twice that of spring wheat, and this was related to much lower amounts of Ninorg in the 1 to 2.5 m layer after winter wheat (81 kg Ninorg ha-1 less). When growing winter catch crops before spring wheat, N content in the 1 to 2.5 m layer after spring wheat was not different from that after winter wheat. The results suggest that by virtue of its deep rooting, winter wheat may not lead to high levels of leaching as it is often assumed in humid climates. Deep soil and root measurements (below 1 m) in this experiment were essential to answer the questions we posed

Infant hospitalisations and fatalities averted by the maternal pertussis vaccination programme in England, 2012-2017: Post-implementation economic evaluation

In October 2012, a maternal pertussis vaccination programme was implemented in England following an increased incidence and mortality in infants. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of the programme by comparing pertussis-related infant hospitalisations and deaths in 2012-2017 with non-vaccination scenarios. Despite considerable uncertainties, findings support the cost-effectiveness of the programme

The challenge of estimating tuberculosis mortality accurately in England and Wales

BACKGROUND: Accurate estimates of tuberculosis (TB) mortality are required to monitor progress towards the World Health Organization End TB goal of reducing TB deaths by 95% by 2035. We compared TB death data for England and Wales from the national surveillance system (Enhanced Tuberculosis Surveillance System [ETS]) and the vital registration system from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). METHODS: TB cases notified in ETS were matched to deaths in ONS (dONS) with International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) codes indicating that TB caused/contributed to the death (A15–A19). Deaths captured in one but not both systems were assessed to identify if ONS captured all TB deaths and if there was under-notification of TB in ETS. We stratified deaths into active TB, TB sequelae, incidental deaths and not TB. RESULTS: Between 2005 and 2015, there were fewer deaths in ETS (dETS) than dONS with ICD-10 codes A15–A19 (n = 4207 vs. n = 6560); 57% of dETS were recorded as dONS and 53% of dONS were notified to ETS. A total of 9289 deaths were identified from dETS and dONS: 64% were due to active TB, 23% were TB sequelae, 6% were incidental and 7% were not TB. CONCLUSIONS: TB deaths in ETS and ONS differ substantially. Almost one third of TB deaths recorded by ONS are not due to active TB; this can be amended through coding changes

A Self-Reference False Memory Effect in the DRM Paradigm: Evidence from Eastern and Western Samples

It is well established that processing information in relation to oneself (i.e., selfreferencing) leads to better memory for that information than processing that same information in relation to others (i.e., other-referencing). However, it is unknown whether self-referencing also leads to more false memories than other-referencing. In the current two experiments with European and East Asian samples, we presented participants the Deese-Roediger/McDermott (DRM) lists together with their own name or other people’s name (i.e., “Trump” in Experiment 1 and “Li Ming” in Experiment 2). We found consistent results across the two experiments; that is, in the self-reference condition, participants had higher true and false memory rates compared to those in the other-reference condition. Moreover, we found that selfreferencing did not exhibit superior mnemonic advantage in terms of net accuracy compared to other-referencing and neutral conditions. These findings are discussed in terms of theoretical frameworks such as spreading activation theories and the fuzzytrace theory. We propose that our results reflect the adaptive nature of memory in the sense that cognitive processes that increase mnemonic efficiency may also increase susceptibility to associative false memories

Gaps in detailed knowledge of human papillomavirus (HPV) and the HPV vaccine among medical students in Scotland

<p>Background: A vaccination programme targeted against human papillomavirus (HPV) types16 and 18 was introduced in the UK in 2008, with the aim of decreasing incidence of cervical disease. Vaccine roll out to 12–13 year old girls with a catch-up programme for girls aged up to 17 years and 364 days was accompanied by a very comprehensive public health information (PHI) campaign which described the role of HPV in the development of cervical cancer.</p> <p>Methods: A brief questionnaire, designed to assess acquisition of knowledge of HPV infection and its association to cervical cancer, was administered to two different cohorts of male and female 1st year medical students (school leavers: 83% in age range 17–20) at a UK university. The study was timed so that the first survey in 2008 immediately followed a summer's intensive PHI campaign and very shortly after vaccine roll-out (150 students). The second survey was exactly one year later over which time there was a sustained PHI campaign (213 students).</p> <p>Results: We addressed three research questions: knowledge about three specific details of HPV infection that could be acquired from PHI, whether length of the PHI campaign and/or vaccination of females had any bearing on HPV knowledge, and knowledge differences between men and women regarding HPV. No female student in the 2008 cohort had completed the three-dose vaccine schedule compared to 58.4% of female students in 2009. Overall, participants’ knowledge regarding the sexually transmitted nature of HPV and its association with cervical cancer was high in both year groups. However, in both years, less than 50% of students correctly identified that HPV causes over 90% of cases of cervical cancer. Males gave fewer correct answers for these two details in 2009. In 2008 only around 50% of students recognised that the current vaccine protects against a limited subset of cervical cancer-causing HPV sub-types, although there was a significant increase in correct response among female students in the 2009 cohort compared to the 2008 cohort.</p> <p>onclusions: This study highlights a lack of understanding regarding the extent of protection against cervical cancer conferred by the HPV vaccine, even among an educated population in the UK who could have a vested interest in acquiring such knowledge. The intensive PHI campaign accompanying the first year of HPV vaccination seemed to have little effect on knowledge over time. This is one of the first studies to assess detailed knowledge of HPV in both males and females. There is scope for continued improvements to PHI regarding the link between HPV infection and cervical cancer.</p&gt

Identification of Class I HLA T Cell Control Epitopes for West Nile Virus

The recent West Nile virus (WNV) outbreak in the United States underscores the importance of understanding human immune responses to this pathogen. Via the presentation of viral peptide ligands at the cell surface, class I HLA mediate the T cell recognition and killing of WNV infected cells. At this time, there are two key unknowns in regards to understanding protective T cell immunity: 1) the number of viral ligands presented by the HLA of infected cells, and 2) the distribution of T cell responses to these available HLA/viral complexes. Here, comparative mass spectroscopy was applied to determine the number of WNV peptides presented by the HLA-A*11:01 of infected cells after which T cell responses to these HLA/WNV complexes were assessed. Six viral peptides derived from capsid, NS3, NS4b, and NS5 were presented. When T cells from infected individuals were tested for reactivity to these six viral ligands, polyfunctional T cells were focused on the GTL9 WNV capsid peptide, ligands from NS3, NS4b, and NS5 were less immunogenic, and two ligands were largely inert, demonstrating that class I HLA reduce the WNV polyprotein to a handful of immune targets and that polyfunctional T cells recognize infections by zeroing in on particular HLA/WNV epitopes. Such dominant HLA/peptide epitopes are poised to drive the development of WNV vaccines that elicit protective T cells as well as providing key antigens for immunoassays that establish correlates of viral immunity. © 2013 Kaabinejadian et al

QCD Coherence and the Top Quark Asymmetry

Coherent QCD radiation in the hadroproduction of top quark pairs leads to a forward--backward asymmetry that grows more negative with increasing transverse momentum of the pair. This feature is present in Monte Carlo event generators with coherent parton showering, even though the production process is treated at leading order and has no intrinsic asymmetry before showering. In addition, depending on the treatment of recoils, showering can produce a positive contribution to the inclusive asymmetry. We explain the origin of these features, compare them in fixed-order calculations and the Herwig++, Pythia and Sherpa event generators, and discuss their implications.Comment: 28 pages, 11 figures, 2 table

Targeted genetic testing for familial hypercholesterolaemia using next generation sequencing:a population-based study

Background<p></p> Familial hypercholesterolaemia (FH) is a common Mendelian condition which, untreated, results in premature coronary heart disease. An estimated 88% of FH cases are undiagnosed in the UK. We previously validated a method for FH mutation detection in a lipid clinic population using next generation sequencing (NGS), but this did not address the challenge of identifying index cases in primary care where most undiagnosed patients receive healthcare. Here, we evaluate the targeted use of NGS as a potential route to diagnosis of FH in a primary care population subset selected for hypercholesterolaemia.<p></p> Methods<p></p> We used microfluidics-based PCR amplification coupled with NGS and multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification (MLPA) to detect mutations in LDLR, APOB and PCSK9 in three phenotypic groups within the Generation Scotland: Scottish Family Health Study including 193 individuals with high total cholesterol, 232 with moderately high total cholesterol despite cholesterol-lowering therapy, and 192 normocholesterolaemic controls.<p></p> Results<p></p> Pathogenic mutations were found in 2.1% of hypercholesterolaemic individuals, in 2.2% of subjects on cholesterol-lowering therapy and in 42% of their available first-degree relatives. In addition, variants of uncertain clinical significance (VUCS) were detected in 1.4% of the hypercholesterolaemic and cholesterol-lowering therapy groups. No pathogenic variants or VUCS were detected in controls.<p></p> Conclusions<p></p> We demonstrated that population-based genetic testing using these protocols is able to deliver definitive molecular diagnoses of FH in individuals with high cholesterol or on cholesterol-lowering therapy. The lower cost and labour associated with NGS-based testing may increase the attractiveness of a population-based approach to FH detection compared to genetic testing with conventional sequencing. This could provide one route to increasing the present low percentage of FH cases with a genetic diagnosis