Using data from 'visible' populations to estimate the size and importance of 'hidden' populations in an epidemic: A modelling technique.

We used reported behavioural data from cisgender men who have sex with men and transgender women (MSM/TGW) in Bangalore, mainly collected from 'hot-spot' locations that attract MSM/TGW, to illustrate a technique to deal with potential issues with the representativeness of this sample. A deterministic dynamic model of HIV transmission was developed, incorporating three subgroups of MSM/TGW, grouped according to their reported predominant sexual role (insertive, receptive or versatile). Using mathematical modelling and data triangulation for 'balancing' numbers of partners and role preferences, we compared three different approaches to determine if our technique could be useful for inferring characteristics of a more 'hidden' insertive MSM subpopulation, and explored their potential importance for the HIV epidemic. Projections for 2009 across all three approaches suggest that HIV prevalence among insertive MSM was likely to be less than half that recorded in the surveys (4.5-6.5% versus 13.1%), but that the relative size of this subgroup was over four times larger (61-69% of all MSM/TGW versus 15%). We infer that the insertive MSM accounted for 10-20% of all prevalent HIV infections among urban males aged 15-49. Mathematical modelling can be used with data on 'visible' MSM/TGW to provide insights into the characteristics of 'hidden' MSM. A greater understanding of the sexual behaviour of all MSM/TGW is important for effective HIV programming. More broadly, a hidden subgroup with a lower infectious disease prevalence than more visible subgroups, has the potential to contain more infections, if the hidden subgroup is considerably larger in size

The effects of weather and climate change on dengue

There is much uncertainty about the future impact of climate change on vector-borne diseases. Such uncertainty reflects the difficulties in modelling the complex interactions between disease, climatic and socioeconomic determinants. We used a comprehensive panel dataset from Mexico covering 23 years of province-specific dengue reports across nine climatic regions to estimate the impact of weather on dengue, accounting for the effects of non-climatic factors

The Link between Dengue Incidence and El Niño Southern Oscillation

Pejman Rohani discusses a new study that examined the dynamic relationship between climate variables and dengue incidence in Thailand, Mexico, and Puerto Rico

Who mixes with whom among men who have sex with men? Implications for modelling the HIV epidemic in southern India

In India, the identity of men who have sex with men (MSM) is closely related to the role taken in anal sex (insertive, receptive or both), but little is known about sexual mixing between identity groups. Both role segregation (taking only the insertive or receptive role) and the extent of assortative (within-group) mixing are known to affect HIV epidemic size in other settings and populations. This study explores how different possible mixing scenarios, consistent with behavioural data collected in Bangalore, south India, affect both the HIV epidemic, and the impact of a targeted intervention. Deterministic models describing HIV transmission between three MSM identity groups (mostly insertive Panthis/Bisexuals, mostly receptive Kothis/Hijras and versatile Double Deckers), were parameterised with behavioural data from Bangalore. We extended previous models of MSM role segregation to allow each of the identity groups to have both insertive and receptive acts, in differing ratios, in line with field data. The models were used to explore four different mixing scenarios ranging from assortative (maximising within-group mixing) to disassortative (minimising within-group mixing). A simple model was used to obtain insights into the relationship between the degree of within-group mixing, R0 and equilibrium HIV prevalence under different mixing scenarios. A more complex, extended version of the model was used to compare the predicted HIV prevalence trends and impact of an HIV intervention when fitted to data from Bangalore. With the simple model, mixing scenarios with increased amounts of assortative (within-group) mixing tended to give rise to a higher R0 and increased the likelihood that an epidemic would occur. When the complex model was fit to HIV prevalence data, large differences in the level of assortative mixing were seen between the fits identified using different mixing scenarios, but little difference was projected in future HIV prevalence trends. An oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) intervention was modelled, targeted at the different identity groups. For intervention strategies targeting the receptive or receptive and versatile MSM together, the overall impact was very similar for different mixing patterns. However, for PrEP scenarios targeting insertive or versatile MSM alone, the overall impact varied considerably for different mixing scenarios; more impact was achieved with greater levels of disassortative mixing

An analytical solution for the settlement of stone columns beneath rigid footings

This paper presents a new approximate solution to study the settlement of rigid footings resting on a soft soil improved with groups of stone columns. The solution development is fully analytical, but finite element analyses are used to verify the validity of some assumptions, such as a simplified geometric model, load distribution with depth and boundary conditions. Groups of stone columns are converted to equivalent single columns with the same cross-sectional area. So, the problem becomes axially symmetric. Soft soil is assumed as linear elastic but plastic strains are considered in the column using the Mohr-Coulomb yield criterion and a non-associated flow rule, with a constant dilatancy angle. Soil profile is divided into independent horizontal slices and equilibrium of stresses and compatibility of deformations are imposed in the vertical and horizontal directions. The solution is presented in a closed form and may be easily implemented in a spreadsheet. Comparisons of the proposed solution with numerical analyses show a good agreement for the whole range of common values, which confirms the validity of the solution and its hypotheses. The solution also compares well with a small scale laboratory test available in literature

Percutaneous vertebral compression fracture management with polyethylene mesh-contained morcelized allograft bone

Study design    A comprehensive systematic review of the literature. Objectives To assess the modern literature on the use of polyethylene mesh-contained morcelized allograft (PMCMA) bone for spinal fusion and vertebral compression fracture management. Summary of background data    There are presently no systematic reviews of PMCMA. Methods    A systematic literature review was performed within three databases (OVID, PubMed, and Google Scholar) using the following keyword search terms: vertebroplasty, kyphoplasty, vertebral compression fracture, percutaneous, polyethylene mesh, and osteoporosis. Results    The initial search identified 764 items, from which two pertinent technique-based articles were identified. There were no published scientific peer-reviewed or case series reporting the clinical results of this technique. The use of PMCMA in the management of vertebral compression fractures (VCFs) is similar to vertebroplasty and kyphoplasty. This novel, percutaneous system uses the properties of granular mechanics to establish a conforming, semirigid graft that is purportedly capable of withstanding physiologic loads. Discussion    PMCMA is a novel percutaneous technology for the management of VCF and possibly for use as a conforming interbody graft. The available published literature lacks outcome data of the use of PMCMA. Careful, independent research is needed to assess the viability of this technology and its long-term results

Residual enhancing disease after surgery for glioblastoma: Evaluation of practice in the United Kingdom

Background: A growing body of clinical data highlights the prognostic importance of achieving gross total resection (GTR) in patients with glioblastoma. The aim of this study was to determine nationwide practice and attitudes towards achieving GTR and dealing with residual enhancing disease. // Methods: The study was in 2 parts: an electronic questionnaire sent to United Kingdom neuro-oncology surgeons to assess surgical practice followed by a 3-month prospective, multicenter observational study of current neurosurgical oncology practice. // Results: Twenty-seven surgeons representing 22 neurosurgical units completed the questionnaire. Prospective data were collected for 113 patients from 15 neurosurgical units. GTR was deemed to be achieved at time of surgery in 82% (91/111) of cases, but in only 45% (36/80) on postoperative MRI. Residual enhancing disease was deemed operable in 16.3% (13/80) of cases, however, no patient underwent early repeat surgery for residual enhancing disease. The most commonly cited reason (38.5%, 5/13) was perceived lack of clinical benefit. // Conclusion: There is a subset of patients for whom GTR is thought possible, but not achieved at surgery. For these patients, early repeat resection may improve overall survival. Further prospective surgical research is required to better define the prognostic implications of GTR for residual enhancing disease and examine the potential benefit of this early re-intervention

Optimal siting, sizing, and enforcement of marine protected areas

The design of protected areas, whether marine or terrestrial, rarely considers how people respond to the imposition of no-take sites with complete or incomplete enforcement. Consequently, these protected areas may fail to achieve their intended goal. We present and solve a spatial bio-economic model in which a manager chooses the optimal location, size, and enforcement level of a marine protected area (MPA). This manager acts as a Stackelberg leader, and her choices consider villagers’ best response to the MPA in a spatial Nash equilibrium of fishing site and effort decisions. Relevant to lower income country settings but general to other settings, we incorporate limited enforcement budgets, distance costs of traveling to fishing sites, and labor allocation to onshore wage opportunities. The optimal MPA varies markedly across alternative manager goals and budget sizes, but always induce changes in villagers’ decisions as a function of distance, dispersal, and wage. We consider MPA managers with ecological conservation goals and with economic goals, and identify the shortcomings of several common manager decision rules, including those focused on: (1) fishery outcomes rather than broader economic goals, (2) fish stocks at MPA sites rather than across the full marinescape, (3) absolute levels rather than additional values, and (4) costless enforcement. Our results demonstrate that such naïve or overly narrow decision rules can lead to inefficient MPA designs that miss economic and conservation opportunities

Network analysis of human protein location

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Understanding cellular systems requires the knowledge of a protein's subcellular localization (SCL). Although experimental and predicted data for protein SCL are archived in various databases, SCL prediction remains a non-trivial problem in genome annotation. Current SCL prediction tools use amino-acid sequence features and text mining approaches. A comprehensive analysis of protein SCL in human PPI and metabolic networks for various subcellular compartments is necessary for developing a robust SCL prediction methodology.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Based on protein-protein interaction (PPI) and metabolite-linked protein interaction (MLPI) networks of proteins, we have compared, contrasted and analysed the statistical properties across different subcellular compartments. We integrated PPI and metabolic datasets with SCL information of human proteins from LOCATE and GOA (Gene Ontology Annotation) and estimated three statistical properties: Chi-square (χ²) test, Paired Localisation Correlation Profile (PLCP) and network topological measures. For the PPI network, Pearson's chi-square test shows that for the same SCL category, twice as many interacting protein pairs are observed than estimated when compared to non-interacting protein pairs (χ²= 1270.19, <it>P-value </it>< 2.2 × 10^-16), whereas for MLPI, metabolite-linked protein pairs having the same SCL are observed 20% more than expected, compared to non-metabolite linked proteins (χ²= 110.02, <it>P-value </it>< 2.2 x10^-16). To address the issue of proteins with multiple SCLs, we have specifically used the PLCP (Pair Localization Correlation Profile) measure. PLCP analysis revealed that protein interactions are majorly restricted to the same SCL, though significant cross-compartment interactions are seen for nuclear proteins. Metabolite-linked protein pairs are restricted to specific compartments such as the mitochondrion (<it>P-value </it>< 6.0e-07), the lysosome (<it>P-value </it>< 4.7e-05) and the Golgi apparatus (<it>P-value </it>< 1.0e-15). These findings indicate that the metabolic network adds value to the information in the PPI network for the localisation process of proteins in human subcellular compartments.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The MLPI network differs significantly from the PPI network in its SCL distribution. The PPI network shows passive protein interaction, possibly due to its high false positive rate, across different subcellular compartments, which seem to be absent in the MLPI network, as the MLPI network has evolved to maintain high substrate specificity for proteins.</p

Gravitational waves from single neutron stars: an advanced detector era survey

With the doors beginning to swing open on the new gravitational wave astronomy, this review provides an up-to-date survey of the most important physical mechanisms that could lead to emission of potentially detectable gravitational radiation from isolated and accreting neutron stars. In particular we discuss the gravitational wave-driven instability and asteroseismology formalism of the f- and r-modes, the different ways that a neutron star could form and sustain a non-axisymmetric quadrupolar "mountain" deformation, the excitation of oscillations during magnetar flares and the possible gravitational wave signature of pulsar glitches. We focus on progress made in the recent years in each topic, make a fresh assessment of the gravitational wave detectability of each mechanism and, finally, highlight key problems and desiderata for future work.Comment: 39 pages, 12 figures, 2 tables. Chapter of the book "Physics and Astrophysics of Neutron Stars", NewCompStar COST Action 1304. Minor corrections to match published versio