Impact Forecasting to Support Emergency Management of Natural Hazards

Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties, and livelihood. While early warning systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude, location, and timing of potentially damaging events, these systems rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected amount and distribution of physical damage, human consequences, disruption of services, or financial loss. Complementing early warning systems with impact forecasts has a twofold advantage: It would provide decision makers with richer information to take informed decisions about emergency measures and focus the attention of different disciplines on a common target. This would allow capitalizing on synergies between different disciplines and boosting the development of multihazard early warning systems. This review discusses the state of the art in impact forecasting for a wide range of natural hazards. We outline the added value of impact-based warnings compared to hazard forecasting for the emergency phase, indicate challenges and pitfalls, and synthesize the review results across hazard types most relevant for Europe

The Energy Landscape, Folding Pathways and the Kinetics of a Knotted Protein

The folding pathway and rate coefficients of the folding of a knotted protein are calculated for a potential energy function with minimal energetic frustration. A kinetic transition network is constructed using the discrete path sampling approach, and the resulting potential energy surface is visualized by constructing disconnectivity graphs. Owing to topological constraints, the low-lying portion of the landscape consists of three distinct regions, corresponding to the native knotted state and to configurations where either the N- or C-terminus is not yet folded into the knot. The fastest folding pathways from denatured states exhibit early formation of the N-terminus portion of the knot and a rate-determining step where the C-terminus is incorporated. The low-lying minima with the N-terminus knotted and the C-terminus free therefore constitute an off-pathway intermediate for this model. The insertion of both the N- and C-termini into the knot occur late in the folding process, creating large energy barriers that are the rate limiting steps in the folding process. When compared to other protein folding proteins of a similar length, this system folds over six orders of magnitude more slowly.Comment: 19 page

Care About Your Customer:A Use and Gratification Study Regarding Co-creation and Customer Engagement on Facebook

Part 1: E-BusinessInternational audienceCompanies and their brands initiated various Co-creation practices on social media. Co-creation improves value for both companies and their customers. This study explored the customer perspective of interest for participating in such Co-creation opportunities on Facebook. Drawing upon the Use and Gratification Theory we investigated the intention of customers to take part in Co-creation on Facebook. We related people’s Co-creation behaviour to the expectancy of satisfaction or reward for their actions. Customer Engagement is an additional concept that expresses the emotional attachment of customers to brands and companies. Underlying reasons were investigated why customers would consider taking part in Co-creation. The quantitative survey inquired customers about their expected Benefits, level of Customer Engagement and their intention for taking part in Co-creation with companies on Facebook. Our results showed that Customer Engagement can be considered as the most important predictor for the intention to Co-create instead of User Gratification. Hedonic Benefits are the most important drivers for User Gratification, playing a key role in the people’s intention for taking part in Co-creation practices. Overall, people’s intention for Co-creation on Facebook increases when they have a meaningful and pleasurable way of experiencing the companies’ products that concern them

Azimuthal anisotropy and correlations at large transverse momenta in p+pp+p and Au+Au collisions at sNN\sqrt{s_{_{NN}}}= 200 GeV

Results on high transverse momentum charged particle emission with respect to the reaction plane are presented for Au+Au collisions at $\sqrt{s_{_{NN}}}$= 200 GeV. Two- and four-particle correlations results are presented as well as a comparison of azimuthal correlations in Au+Au collisions to those in $p+p$ at the same energy. Elliptic anisotropy, $v_2$, is found to reach its maximum at $p_t \sim 3$ GeV/c, then decrease slowly and remain significant up to $p_t\approx 7$ -- 10 GeV/c. Stronger suppression is found in the back-to-back high-$p_t$ particle correlations for particles emitted out-of-plane compared to those emitted in-plane. The centrality dependence of $v_2$ at intermediate $p_t$ is compared to simple models based on jet quenching.Comment: 4 figures. Published version as PRL 93, 252301 (2004

Rapidity and Centrality Dependence of Proton and Anti-proton Production from Au+Au Collisions at sqrt(sNN) = 130GeV

We report on the rapidity and centrality dependence of proton and anti-proton transverse mass distributions from Au+Au collisions at sqrt(sNN) = 130GeV as measured by the STAR experiment at RHIC. Our results are from the rapidity and transverse momentum range of |y|<0.5 and 0.35 <p_t<1.00GeV/c. For both protons and anti-protons, transverse mass distributions become more convex from peripheral to central collisions demonstrating characteristics of collective expansion. The measured rapidity distributions and the mean transverse momenta versus rapidity are flat within |y|<0.5. Comparisons of our data with results from model calculations indicate that in order to obtain a consistent picture of the proton(anti-proton) yields and transverse mass distributions the possibility of pre-hadronic collective expansion may have to be taken into account.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures, 1 table, submitted to PR

Adrenergic Alpha-1 Pathway Is Associated with Hypertension among Nigerians in a Pathway-focused Analysis

The pathway-focused association approach offers a hypothesis driven alternative to the agnostic genome-wide association study. Here we apply the pathway-focused approach to an association study of hypertension, systolic blood pressure (SBP), and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) in 1614 Nigerians with genome-wide data.Testing of 28 pathways with biological relevance to hypertension, selected a priori, containing a total of 101 unique genes and 4,349 unique single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) showed an association for the adrenergic alpha 1 (ADRA1) receptor pathway with hypertension (p<0.0009) and diastolic blood pressure (p<0.0007). Within the ADRA1 pathway, the genes PNMT (hypertension P(gene)<0.004, DBP P(gene)<0.004, and SBP P(gene)<0.009, and ADRA1B (hypertension P(gene)<0.005, DBP P(gene)<0.02, and SBP P(gene)<0.02) displayed the strongest associations. Neither ADRA1B nor PNMT could be the sole mediator of the observed pathway association as the ADRA1 pathway remained significant after removing ADRA1B, and other pathways involving PNMT did not reach pathway significance.We conclude that multiple variants in several genes in the ADRA1 pathway led to associations with hypertension and DBP. SNPs in ADRA1B and PNMT have not previously been linked to hypertension in a genome-wide association study, but both genes have shown associations with hypertension through linkage or model organism studies. The identification of moderately significant (10(-2)>p>10(-5)) SNPs offers a novel method for detecting the "missing heritability" of hypertension. These findings warrant further studies in similar and other populations to assess the generalizability of our results, and illustrate the potential of the pathway-focused approach to investigate genetic variation in hypertension

Extending an evidence hierarchy to include topics other than treatment: revising the Australian 'levels of evidence'

Background: In 1999 a four-level hierarchy of evidence was promoted by the National Health and Medical Research Council in Australia. The primary purpose of this hierarchy was to assist with clinical practice guideline development, although it was co-opted for use in systematic literature reviews and health technology assessments. In this hierarchy interventional study designs were ranked according to the likelihood that bias had been eliminated and thus it was not ideal to assess studies that addressed other types of clinical questions. This paper reports on the revision and extension of this evidence hierarchy to enable broader use within existing evidence assessment systems. Methods: A working party identified and assessed empirical evidence, and used a commissioned review of existing evidence assessment schema, to support decision-making regarding revision of the hierarchy. The aim was to retain the existing evidence levels I-IV but increase their relevance for assessing the quality of individual diagnostic accuracy, prognostic, aetiologic and screening studies. Comprehensive public consultation was undertaken and the revised hierarchy was piloted by individual health technology assessment agencies and clinical practice guideline developers. After two and a half years, the hierarchy was again revised and commenced a further 18 month pilot period. Results: A suitable framework was identified upon which to model the revision. Consistency was maintained in the hierarchy of "levels of evidence" across all types of clinical questions; empirical evidence was used to support the relationship between study design and ranking in the hierarchy wherever possible; and systematic reviews of lower level studies were themselves ascribed a ranking. The impact of ethics on the hierarchy of study designs was acknowledged in the framework, along with a consideration of how harms should be assessed. Conclusion: The revised evidence hierarchy is now widely used and provides a common standard against which to initially judge the likelihood of bias in individual studies evaluating interventional, diagnostic accuracy, prognostic, aetiologic or screening topics. Detailed quality appraisal of these individual studies, as well as grading of the body of evidence to answer each clinical, research or policy question, can then be undertaken as required.Tracy Merlin, Adele Weston and Rebecca Toohe

Melatonin the "light of night" in human biology and adolescent idiopathic scoliosis

Melatonin "the light of night" is secreted from the pineal gland principally at night. The hormone is involved in sleep regulation, as well as in a number of other cyclical bodily activities and circadian rhythm in humans. Melatonin is exclusively involved in signalling the 'time of day' and 'time of year' (hence considered to help both clock and calendar functions) to all tissues and is thus considered to be the body's chronological pacemaker or 'Zeitgeber'. The last decades melatonin has been used as a therapeutic chemical in a large spectrum of diseases, mainly in sleep disturbances and tumours and may play a role in the biologic regulation of mood, affective disorders, cardiovascular system, reproduction and aging. There are few papers regarding melatonin and its role in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS). Melatonin may play a role in the pathogenesis of scoliosis (neuroendocrine hypothesis) but at present, the data available cannot clearly support this hypothesis. Uncertainties and doubts still surround the role of melatonin in human physiology and pathophysiology and future research is needed

Progranulin Gene Variability and Plasma Levels in Bipolar Disorder and Schizophrenia

Basing on the assumption that frontotemporal lobar degeneration (FTLD), schizophrenia and bipolar disorder (BPD) might share common aetiological mechanisms, we analyzed genetic variation in the FTLD risk gene progranulin (GRN) in a German population of patients with schizophrenia (n = 271) or BPD (n = 237) as compared with 574 age-, gender- and ethnicity-matched controls. Furthermore, we measured plasma progranulin levels in 26 German BPD patients as well as in 61 Italian BPD patients and 29 matched controls