Aid Volatility: An Empirical Assessment

This article examines empirical evidence on the volatility and uncertainty of aid flows and their main policy implications. Aid is found to be more volatile than fiscal revenues--particularly in highly aid-dependent countries--and shortfalls in aid and domestic revenue tend to coincide. The article also finds that uncertainty about aid disbursements is large and that the information content of commitments made by donors is either very small or statistically insignificant. Specific policies and broader international efforts to cope with these features of aid are briefly discussed. Copyright 2003, International Monetary Fund

A Variable PV Broad Absorption Line and Quasar Outflow Energetics

Broad absorption lines (BALs) in quasar spectra identify high velocity outflows that might exist in all quasars and could play a major role in feedback to galaxy evolution. The viability of BAL outflows as a feedback mechanism depends on their kinetic energies, as derived from the outflow velocities, column densities, and distances from the central quasar. We estimate these quantities for the quasar, Q1413+1143 (redshift $z_e = 2.56$), aided by the first detection of PV $\lambda\lambda$1118,1128 BAL variability in a quasar. In particular, PV absorption at velocities where the CIV trough does not reach zero intensity implies that the CIV BAL is saturated and the absorber only partially covers the background continuum source (with characteristic size <0.01 pc). With the assumption of solar abundances, we estimate that the total column density in the BAL outflow is log N_H > 22.3 (cm^-2). Variability in the PV and saturated CIV BALs strongly disfavors changes in the ionization as the cause of the BAL variability, but supports models with high-column density BAL clouds moving across our lines of sight. The observed variability time of 1.6 yr in the quasar rest frame indicates crossing speeds >750 km/s and a radial distance from the central black hole of <3.5 pc, if the crossing speeds are Keplerian. The total outflow mass is ~4100 M_solar, the kinetic energy ~4x10^54 erg, and the ratio of the outflow kinetic energy luminosity to the quasar bolometric luminosity is ~0.02 (at the minimum column density and maximum distance), which might be sufficient for important feedback to the quasar's host galaxy.Comment: 9 pages, 4 figures, accepted for publication in MNRA

Deformation modes and geometries in the EPICA-DML ice core, Antarctica

Combination of physical-properties methods (crystal-orientation-fabrics, grain-elongation-data, line-scan stratigraphy-documentation) reveal evidences for five deformation geometry regimes:1. Random c-axes distributions and crystal elongation directions (~2020 m depth). Here bed-parallel simple shear deforms the ice causing folding and inclination of stratigraphic layers.5. A last change of geometries is observed at ~2370 m depth, with a locally very restricted (~10 m) backslide to girdle fabric, isoclinal z-folding and borehole closure. Below that an inclined single maximum fabric reoccurs.Simple shear can easily produce the observed small-scale folding of layers which however may belong to disturbances on a larger scale with possible overturning and thus age reversal of layers. Below ~2020 m the EDML climate record has to be interpreted with great care

Neglecting the porosity of hot-star winds can lead to underestimating mass-loss rates

Context: The mass-loss rate is a key parameter of massive stars. Adequate stellar atmosphere models are required for spectral analyses and mass-loss determinations. Present models can only account for the inhomogeneity of stellar winds in the approximation of small-scale structures that are optically thin. This treatment of ``microclumping'' has led to reducing empirical mass-loss rates by factors of two and more. Aims: Stellar wind clumps can be optically thick in spectral lines. We investigate how this ``macroclumping'' impacts on empirical mass-loss rates. Methods: The Potsdam Wolf-Rayet (PoWR) model atmosphere code is generalized in the ``formal integral'' to account for clumps that are not necessarily optically thin. Results: Optically thick clumps reduce the effective opacity. This has a pronounced effect on the emergent spectrum. Our modeling for the O-type supergiant zeta Puppis reveals that the optically thin H-alpha line is not affected by wind porosity, but that the PV resonance doublet becomes significantly weaker when macroclumping is taken into account. The reported discrepancies between resonance-line and recombination-line diagnostics can be resolved entirely with the macroclumping modeling without downward revision of the mass-loss rate. Conclusions: Mass-loss rates inferred from optically thin emission, such as the H-alpha line in O stars, are not influenced by macroclumping. The strength of optically thick lines, however, is reduced because of the porosity effects. Therefore, neglecting the porosity in stellar wind modeling can lead to underestimating empirical mass-loss rates.Comment: A&A (in press), see full abstract in the tex

Emerging Debt Markets: What Do Correlations and Spreads Tell Us?

This paper proposes a conceptual framework to identify the potential sources of contagion in emerging bond markets and the mechanisms through which shocks originating in a particular emerging or mature market are likely to be transmitted across countries and markets. We then apply this framework to the emerging countries initially included in the EMBI Global Index over the period 1997-2005. We put into light that emerging markets became less and less intertwined over the recent period, and that, at present, the risk of contagion may come mainly from events taking place into mature markets. Finally, we derive policy recommendations in order to reduce emerging countries debt variability thus making them less vulnerable to a shock that takes place in mature markets. Sound macroeconomic policies, and in particular, prudent fiscal ones, could enhance government discipline and limit contagion effects in a wake of a global shock or a shock affecting another emerging country.Emerging bond markets, International financial crises, Excess comovement, Contagion, Public debt

Wind-Interaction Models for the Early Afterglows of Gamma-Ray Bursts: The Case of GRB 021004

Wind-interaction models for gamma-ray burst afterglows predict that the optical emission from the reverse shock drops below that from the forward shock within 100s of seconds of the burst. The typical frequency $\nu_m$ of the synchrotron emission from the forward shock passes through the optical band typically on a timescale of minutes to hours. Before the passage of $\nu_m$, the optical flux evolves as $t^{-1/4}$ and after the passage, the decay steepens to $t^{-(3p-2)/4}$, where $p$ is the exponent for the assumed power-law energy distribution of nonthermal electrons and is typically $\sim 2$. The steepening in the slope of temporal decay should be readily identifiable in the early afterglow light curves. We propose that such a steepening was observed in the R-band light curve of GRB 021004 around day 0.1. Available data at several radio frequencies are consistent with this interpretation, as are the X-ray observations around day~1. The early evolution of GRB 021004 contrasts with that of GRB 990123, which can be described by emission from interaction with a constant density medium.Comment: 16 pages, 1 figure, submitted to ApJ

Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: A Critical Look at the Stylized Facts

To address this question, this paper identifies stabilization episodes using criteria that differ from those in previous empirical studies of exchange-rate-based stabilizations. We find that, while some differences can be detected between exchange-rate-based stabilizations and stabilizations where the exchange rate is not the anchor, the behavior of important variables does not appear to differ - especially output growth, which is good in both cases. There is also no evidence that fiscal discipline is enhanced by adopting an exchange rate anchor, or that there are any systematic differences in the success records of stabilizations that use the exchange rate as a nominal anchor and those that do not. Copyright 2001, International Monetary Fund

A High-Velocity Narrow Absorption Line Outflow in the Quasar J212329.46-005052.9

We report on a variable high-velocity narrow absorption line outflow in the redshift 2.3 quasar J2123-0050. Five distinct outflow systems are detected with velocity shifts from -9710 to -14,050 km/s and CIV 1548,1551 line widths of FWHM = 62-164 km/s. These data require five distinct outflow structures with similar kinematics, physical conditions and characteristic sizes of order 0.01-0.02 pc. The most likely location is ~5 pc from the quasar. The coordinated line variations in <0.63 yr (rest) are best explained by global changes in the outflow ionization caused by changes in the quasar's ionizing flux. The absence of strong X-ray absorption shows that radiative shielding is not needed to maintain the moderate ionizations and therefore, apparently, it is not needed to facilitate the radiative acceleration to high speeds. The kinetic energy yield of this flow is at least two orders of magnitude too low to be important for feedback to the host galaxy's evolution.Comment: 20 pages. In press with MNRA

The metallicity dependence of WR winds

Wolf-Rayet (WR) stars are the most advanced stage in the evolution of the most massive stars. The strong feedback provided by these objects and their subsequent supernova (SN) explosions are decisive for a variety of astrophysical topics such as the cosmic matter cycle. Consequently, understanding the properties of WR stars and their evolution is indispensable. A crucial but still not well known quantity determining the evolution of WR stars is their mass-loss rate. Since the mass loss is predicted to increase with metallicity, the feedback provided by these objects and their spectral appearance are expected to be a function of the metal content of their host galaxy. This has severe implications for the role of massive stars in general and the exploration of low metallicity environments in particular. Hitherto, the metallicity dependence of WR star winds was not well studied. In this contribution, we review the results from our comprehensive spectral analyses of WR stars in environments of different metallicities, ranging from slightly super-solar to SMC-like metallicities. Based on these studies, we derived empirical relations for the dependence of the WN mass-loss rates on the metallicity and iron abundance, respectively.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures, to be published in the Proceedings of the IAU Symposium No. 329 "The lives and death-throes of massive stars